Few political analysts are yet to realize this, but never in the history of Kenyan elections have the stakes been so high for virtually all concerned.
My condolences to those Kenyans who naively think that foreign powers are not an influencing factor in election outcomes, because I am going to be talking a lot about foreign influence in this post.
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Also published today
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Shall we start with the incumbent? Ailing, aging President Kibaki certainly does not want to be the first Kenyan president to be removed by the electorate. Moi was not removed; remember? He retired and it was Kanu which was in the cold only briefly and now its' members are back in government at the heart of Kibaki's so-called government of national unity. President Kibaki cannot afford to lose these elections also because time has been too short. He started his administration when he was ill and spent the first three years trying to settle in with LDP troubles and the death of his first Vice president, dealing him a terrible blow. He needs 5 more years to do what he really intended to do in his first term. He seems to have made a deal with the Americans to deal firmly with terror suspects in return for a more sympathetic Washington ear. Already this seems to be working, but most analysts are convinced that the Americans are not comfortable with a Kibaki government, especially because of his most recent close ally, China. But Kibaki\s biggest worry is that the British are openly hostile after losing a lot of traditional government business to the Japs and the Chinese. Historically no Kenyan president has ever won an election without the support of the British.
Former President Moi is a worried man. There are those who say that he amassed more wealth during his reign that what the late President Mobutu Sese Seko of mineral rich Congo managed to put away in Swiss accounts. But one wrong move and his twilight years could turn into a nightmare. Of all elections Moi has been involved in during his long years in politics, this is one that he cannot afford to lose. That's why to make sure, the so-called professor of politics has no less than 2 horses in contention, with a possible third in the wings. Unknown to many Kenyans, Moi is one of Kalonzo Musyoka's main advisors. And what a difference that advice has made. Raila was just about to run away with the ODM party nomination for President after a carefully orchestrated consensus session when a Moi-orchestrated coup saw all major presidential candidates boycotting a major London session that was supposed to be a bonding session even as ODM seals its' choice of presidential candidate. Kalonzo also stood his ground and refused to leave ODM. Moi does not mind Kalonzo Musyoka being the ODM presidential candidate after all Musyoka is on record as having publicly told the Kalenjin community that he will protect them from "controversies of the past." In simple English that means that he will protect Moi and Biwott's ill gotten wealth as well as that of a handful of other prominent members of the Kalenjin tribe. Interestingly Moi is closer to the Americans currently than he ever was during his presidency. The reason is simple, Moi is the perfect tool in American hands for them to exert their influence without anybody knowing what is going on, because he is as powerful as ever in today's Kenya. Wily Moi on the other hand is looking for certain guarantees and assurances from the Americans for himself and his children long after he's gone. It is instructive that Moi can still get a visa to travel to the United States and Britain while virtually all his henchmen including Nick Biwott and Joshua Kulei cannot. Moi does not mind a Kibaki victory and neither does he mind a Kalonzo one—that is two horses in the race. But then there is a Kanu candidate coming up as well whose main aim will be to take away as many votes as possible from a Raila candidature. One can' be too careful f you are Moi.
The only ODM presidential candidate who has attracted significant foreign interest and from an unlikely source, is Raila Odinga. It is clear that the South Africans are ready at any time to open their wallets to fund the Langata MPs presidential campaign. The South Africans see themselves as the sole major super power on the continent and now have vast interests to protect as well as a lengthy agenda to implement. They also have national security issues that force them to be very interested in supervising proceedings on the rest of the continent. It is now whispered that Raila Odinga did not in fact pay for the expensive ads that appeared on DSTV late last year, causing such a stir locally and abroad. So who picked up the tab for the ads? Difficult to say but you can start looking in the country where DSTV is headquartered. You guessed it, South Africa. More recently there is this South African Millionaire that is said to be very keen on financing ODM-Kenya. The problem is that everybody forgets or does not know that he is very close to the government and has been used in the past for special covert missions. This is one presidential election that Raila cannot afford to lose. Age is catching up and it is clearly now or never. That is why it does not really matter who the ODM nominee is, either way, one thing you can be sure of is that Raila is standing for president this time round. The Americans don't like him because they have bitter memories of his father's close links to the Soviets. The British do not know quite what to make of him, but they too mistrust him. Foreign powers like nothing better than people they can analyze and compartmentalize neatly for those lengthy memos back home. Unfortunately Raila cannot be compartmentalized. Went to school in the former Eastern Europe and although he claims to be a democrat, ODM Kenya strongly resembles the all-inclusive Communist party that took over from the Bolsheviks in Russia.
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I am neutral on this matter and would like to make a few observations on this.
ReplyDeleteFor Kibaki to win, the only thing that can assure him is a development record that is incomparable across the East and Central African region.
The man has perfomed and even the British who have been critical over certain matters are not talking any more.
With or without the Kenyan contracts, the British economy will go and has been there for the last 5 centuries. In the last five years, Kenya has invited other players in its contract table, but still the British have control over matters that me and you would know better.
It is not about the contracts, it is about 'the British interests', which include their biggest communication centre in Africa, after South Africa, tens of British companies that invest in the country, ie. Barclays, Standard Chartered, British Airways, tens of ten auctioning companies and coultless others in tourism, investments and others that me and you do not know. Just look at the rate of investments in the last one year.
Count the number of British tourists that visit Kenya in one year.
Have you seen the way they sponsor events in the country including free education? Someone said, they even give what they have not been asked to. Did you know that Kenya got more British aid that any other country last year amid the Anglo Leasing Razzmattazz?
Secondly, the American communication centre, that serves part of the hostile Middle East, remember they launched an attack on a Sudanese target from Mombasa, and their biggest embassy in Africa. They cannot have such a bigger one in Middle East, with such a big number of staff that control its logistics for three-quarters if not the whole of Africa.
Another thing, is that Kenya has served as a mirror of the British democracy.
Overall, there is no one to replace Kibaki at the moment, not even if ODM unite. The man has tried his best. I think you can have a look at the standards of the infrastructure in the country and the democratic framework that includes the economy across the board. A revive vibrant economy, the farmers are okay. What else do we need.
Anglo Leasing? if you are waiting for the British to scuttle an American support over that, then you will wait longer. Very long!
I meant tea auction firms in Mombasa and countless in the tourism sector. That is why they make noise when there is insecurity. Add Magadi Soda Company and the British Training in Nanyuki, the only place in the world that they use live ordance in training
ReplyDeleteAre you sure that the South African government want to sponsor Raila Odinga as a presidential candidate? Think hard please. Stop propaganda. Is it written anywhere. What do you call that. South Africa distabilising a democratically elected government? No Chris. Let me stop there!
ReplyDeleteMr. Anonymous is neutral in this matter indeed!
ReplyDeleteWhereas we all agree that foreign governments do influence electrol results in third world countries,other important factors like security and standards of living also play a part. It is very misplaced for anonymous to say that "Overall, there is no one to replace Kibaki at the moment, not even if ODM unite". We all know that is where his biggest opponent will emerge from.
It is also absolutely incorrect to state that free primary eduction is in existence in kenya and credit should go to Kibaki government. Those of us who are parents in public schools in Nairobi continue to pay what is known as "approved levy" and also "tuition" which is somewhat not official but compulsory lest your child is victimised. (Chris, let no one challenge you on this I have receipts to prove). We also buy text books, uniform and pay for lunch. Is this what anonymous wants to call free primary education? It is high time people understand that this free primary education is a right of the people and not a favour by the Kibaki government!
Kenyans still remain the highest taxed citizens in the world (to support a blotted cabinet) and the prices of basic commodities have risen tremendously since Kibaki government took over (I have in mind prices of fuel and basic food like unga). Do you want to tell me, anonymous, that this is "a development record that is incomparable across the East and Central African region"? Street families that were once "cleaned up" from the CBD are back with earnest. Armed robberies have increased. A government that promotes the cultivation and marketing of banned drugs like khat (miraa) and bhang and turns a blind eye to cash/food crops like sugar, cotton,cashewnuts, etc??
So whats this about an improved lifestyle for ordinary citizens?
I do not know where anonymous lives when he says "....have a look at the standards of the infrastructure in the country....". For instance, to drive from Nairobi to Western Kenya is a nightmare for Kenyan motorists and a high percentage of roads in urban centres are in a pathetic state. There is currently a big fiasco over the Second National Operator (SNO) licence and 3rd mobile operator licence all because of govenment incompetence in dealing with international business corporations!!!
Chris, as a Kenyan who voted for Kibaki and who has lived in Kenya for the last five years, I can confidently tell you that Kibaki regime is a total failure. I dont even want to pull out the checklist he asked us to keep way back in 2002. Failure!
Hi Chris,
ReplyDeleteYour analysis is pretty accurate. One major correction - Moi cannot step foot in the UK and Gideon being denied a visa was a cover story. Moi was denied his visa even before Gideon applied so as to save his fathers reputation. It is the Americans who have sold out. Washington has made their peace with Kibaki but the Nairobi Embassy is very uncomfortable with Kibaki and will dump him when a better option comes along.
Chris, your South African angle is true but the players you mention are the wrong ones. The main man for Raila in Egoli land is Jacob Zuma. Confirm by doing further research.
ReplyDeleteThis foreign influence topic is interesting. Apart from the old and tired former colonialists like Britain and the new colonialists, like America, what about the Middle Eastern and African countries?
There are too many foreign vested interests in Kenya and they need to be outed.
This is a response to Phil. I am not supporting Kibaki (Atleast not now, I am waiting for odm to goof by nominating raila odinga and then cross over to kibaki's camp). But that is not to say he ios not doing well. I am sure if u have ever been in a classroom u can understand that five years is a time too short to transform a country from a dictatorship to a democracy. This is something Kibaki has managed to do with onsiderable success. He has done it in three years coz the first two he was not at his best health and was still fighting a busy body called raila odinga.
ReplyDeleteInstead of coming up with the old tired line of the kenyan press that the economy is in shambles,poverty has increased,corruption has increased and all that shit, why dont u be man enough and show us any economy in east and central africa that is doing better than kenya's. U can use whatver parameters u wish here but bear in mind that kibaki has been president for only five years.
It doesnt really matter who the south africans support or any other country for that matter. People will always come with wild allegations. I have heard so many times that George Bush is tight with kalonzo, now we are being told that changed and he is driving in the same boat with kibaki and we are sure to hear more. south africans will not vote in kenya and that is why the outcome of the elections is in kenyans' hands. What u guys should know is that no presidential candidate is too poor to support his bid. A billion shillings is something kibaki, kalonzo or raila will part with very comfortably if they are3 sure to win.
Mr. Anonymous has a point when he says kibaki will be a hard nut to crack. In my very humble opinion, the only people with a chance of beating kibaki albeit a very slim one is kalonzo and uhuru if they get nominated by odm and everyone else stays put. To imagine that there can be a contest between kibaki and raila odinga is wishful thinking.
About moi not being able to step foot in britain, can anyone shed more light there please. My desire is for us to stop all these meaningless rumours.
All said and done, I think kibaki will romp home with ease regardlessof the wishes of the "almighty" saouth africans. My prayer is that kalonzo or uhuru get the nod in odm though so that we see a generational change in leadership. At 63 years raila odinga should be thinking of calling it a day lest he gets a stroke after finally confirming that kenyans cannot fathom his presidncy
Vikii my friend,
ReplyDeleteHave you already sensed a Kalonzo defeat whichever nomination method is used?? Be a democrat and support a winning ODM candidate rather than defect to Narc-K or whichever party Kibaki chooses to run on.
I can Tell you the economies of mozambique, Democractic Republic of congo, sudan, ethiopia and even rwanda is doing better than Kenya's. Bear in mind, these are countries that have recently come out of civil wars, yet they are achieving 7% annual growth rates. This is, according to UN, the level at which poverty levels begin to be reduced. Kenya's economy has traditional only been dorminant in the region not the best performing.
It is not for you to decide the suitability of Raila's presidency. Let him have the chance to be elected, just like Kibaki and the rest. He may just suprise you Kalonzo supporters.
It is in South Africa's interest to ensure a sound government is elected - as they will be the first to suffer from influx of Kenyan refugees seeking greener pastures in their country - if there is an economic collapse in Kenya.
This is a quote from somewhere:
IT MIGHT SEEM A FORMIDABLE COMBINATION. YET KENYA IS A PROVEN DEVELOPMENT FAILURE. MORE THAN FOUR DECADES AFTER INDEPENDENCE IN DECEMBER 1963, THE SOCIAL INDICATORS ARE POINTING THE WRONG WAY. LIFE EXPECTANCY IS FALLING, AND THE NUMBER OF KENYANS SUBSISTING ON LESS THAN A DOLLAR A DAY IS RISING. NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF THE POPULATION ARE IN DEEP POVERTY.
Hi, Mr. ODM (aka Raila e-campaign guy).
ReplyDeleteYou will go to all lengths to convince us to vote for Raila,won't you? His constituents are among the poorest not only in Kenya but in Africa, he should be chanelling his resources towards THEM, not you, the hummer or the Ksh 16m ad he spent to announce he was running for president back in the world cup days. If its how much you spend that makes you elected, think how much Uhuru Kenyatta should have won in 2002.
Foreing governments endorsing/supporting/sponsoring/whatever-else-you-call-it or not, its Kenyans who have the voting power. Explain to me, is Raila not campaigning on a democracy ticket? Whats all this Kalonzo-dissing, simply because he refused to endorse the concensus thing?Kama ni mbaya, mbaya!
Sometimes I think you could not be more ignorant, but you sink deeper into ignorance with every blog you post.
Hi Mr. Anonymous, you are entitled to your opinion just like I am entitled to mine. Right?
ReplyDeleteDid I hear you say ignorant?
Just check this article and you will realise how much this economic growth hype is a myth.
http://www.afrol.com/articles/19006
What's wrong with these guys? We are not saying kibaki is the best leader kenya can ever have. In the same breath your illusions can ever make us think raila can lead kenya. I will tell you for free that u are not fooling anybody here. You are trying to campaign for Raila Odinga under the guise of an impartial blog. U will always have yo say but NEVER at any one given time your say. Tell raila Odinga to forget being a minister in any future government leave alone president.
ReplyDelete