Foreign governments will hardly call press conferences to announce their favored presidential candidates in an election but you can be sure that there is currently frantic activity and less of lazy golf playing afternoons in Nairobi diplomatic circles.
The British are keen to regain their lucrative government contracts as well as secure certain other national interests that have not been served well under President Kibaki. However these guys are also best known for their practical approach to matters, they are not as reckless as the Americans. I therefore expect that there should be intense horse trading currently going on over what a second Kibaki administration would yield. At the same time the British are also quietly talking to at least one other major opposition candidate. Then there is the British secret weapon if Kibaki handlers don't play ball. It is called John Githongo and the Anglo Leasing dossier.
The Americans have already cut a deal with the incumbent but the situation is clearly still very fluid and anything can happen. Their future move depends a lot on what happens with ODM-Kenya and if they will manage to stay intact and field a single presidential candidate. The Americans will be much more comfortable if that candidate is not Raila Odinga.
The truth is that the Yankees don't see any long-term concrete benefits from a continued no-clear-policy Kibaki administration. Naturally the number one concern of Washington are the suspected Al Quaeda terrorist cells in the country that the Kibaki administration does not seem to be too concerned about, even when there is increased evidence of the emergence of Islamic fundamentalism in previously quite and peaceful places like Mombasa and Lamu.
The South Africans have the kamikaze approach of siding with the man they believe will be the next president of Kenya. Although they can always deny everything later if things turn out differently because the guy talking to ODM is a private businessman. Huh!
China tend to do their things a little differently, their entire foreign policy closely revolves around expanding trade and finding markets for their rapidly expanding manufacturing base. Relations have never been warmer with Kenya and Bejing will be rooting for a Kibaki re-election. After all they are no strangers to aging leaders. Any other victory in December 2007 will certainly put back great gains made over the last two years or so.
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