Saturday, September 30, 2006

Is This Part Of The Narc Kenya Political Games?

There are some very worrying figures coming out of the recently concluded voter registration exercise.

How does a constituency with a novice MP who was elected barely a few weeks before the voter registration exercise started, manage to top the list countrywide in terms of influx of voters moving in from other constituencies?

When you hear that seasoned Nairobi politician's Embakasi constituency received 12,933 old voters moving in from elsewhere, then it is hardly surprising. Assistant Minister David Mwenje who is the sitting MP is a survivor who like many experienced politicians will want to do their sums for winning well in advance.

Even presidential hopeful William Ruto would hardly raise eyebrows when his Eldoret North constituency records 13,472 voters shifting there from elsewhere.

But when political novice William Kariuki, who replaced his father in a recent by-election as a result of the Isiolo air disaster, tops the list countrywide with a whopping influx of 20,051 voters moving in from elsewhere and then a further 19,601 joining the roll as new voters, one starts to get very suspicious.

One cannot help but feel that there is somebody somewhere up to something. It does not help matters that the Rift Valley is clearly going to be the political hotbed in the upcoming general elections.

It is interesting that the young Kariuki is a Narc Kenya candidate in a province where the party will be hard pressed to stem off the ODM Kenya challenge.

All this reminds me of the political games that retired President Moi used to play to win the two competitive multi-party elections that he was involved in. I had an opportunity of seeing this first hand in the dagoretti constituency in 1997 where Moi received 6,000 votes in a Nairobi constituency that was rabidly anti-Moi. Where did those votes come from? They could have been stuffed into ballot boxes, but the more probable answer may have been voters imported into the constituency from elsewhere to help achieve a win and the 25 per cent required from at least 5 provinces for a candidate to be duly elected as president.

Could similar arithmetic be going on here? You see these days it is much more difficult to rig elections in Kenya because of various improvements, including the fact that votes are counted at the actual polling station as opposed to the old practice of transporting them to a central location in a constituency. Naturally all sorts of Houdini-like things used to take place between the polling station and the final destination of the ballot boxes. It is said that sometimes whole ballot boxes would be switched on transit. What all this means is that the time to influence things is during the voter registration and relocation exercise.

I still hold onto my position that all these carefully laid out plans will go horribly wrong and come to nothing because other major players still not in the picture now will enter and influence the forthcoming general elections in a major way. Kenyan voters are very angry and smarting from a number of nasty things the people whom they elected pulled off once they were safely in office and will therefore relish the entry of previously unknown elements.
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