Kibaki Will Step Down For Uhuru Kenyatta: Are These Nairobi Rumours Nonsense Or Are They A Possibility?

Nairobi has always been famous for its' rumour-mongering and the reason why rumours thrive is that too often they have ended up being the truth. (Leave out the times when the notorious Special branch of old used to spread rumours for "research reasons." Like the time in the late 80s when they started a rumour that President Moi had throat cancer and was dying. The president and his inner circle must have had lots of fun observing the politicians all re-positioning themselves carefully for the eventuality of Moi's exit).

Where there is smoke, there must be fire, they say.

One rumour that has been gathering momentum amongst those who take the time to carefully analyze the political situation in the country, is that President Kibaki may very well step down for somebody else at the 11th hour leading up to the 2007 general elections.

The first reaction would be to dismiss this as utter nonsense. We all know that something happens to people's brains the minute they enter State House grounds as head of state. Level headed democracy activists suddenly turn into notorious dictators who suddenly clamp down on the press that got them there and want to hold onto the presidency until-death-do-us-part. Suddenly they develop acute blindness to problems of ordinary Kenyans that they previously saw and articulated on very clearly during their campaigns for the presidency.

So why should President Kibaki be any different and just leave the seat he has fought so ferociously to retain, to somebody else?

There are a few things that have changed dramatically and radically in Kenya since the constitutional referendum last November that have brought this possibility closer to reality.

A reader in a recent comment asked me to discuss political inheritance and lamented how nobody in Kenya seemed to be bothered about it. The truth of the matter is that if things continue the way they are, come election day 2007, Kenyans will be very bothered about this political inheritance thing.

One of the things that has changed dramatically since last November is that all the major political families in Kenya are now reading from the same script. The families are the Kenyattas, the Mois and the Kibakis. Prior to November 2005, only the Kenyattas and the Mois were speaking the same language. In fact these two families stretched their resources and connections to the limit to defeat the proposed new constitution. The reason was one little clause that was going to create a law forcing the country to investigate past sins of past administrations in great detail ensuring that justice was dispensed. That little piece of legislation would have wiped out the vast Kenyatta family wealth (mostly held in grabbed land) and left them paupers. It would have put two of Moi's sons into prison.

The Kibaki family was not seated at this royal table because that was before the Anglo-leasing scandal broke. I do not want to be branded a conspiracy theorist but the mystery behind why a newspaper that had been avoiding controversy amongst the high and mighty in Kenya like the plague, suddenly changed character and started behaving like a 10 bob scandal sheet (only that it did it with more finesses and skill) remains an unsolved puzzle in my book. Who was behind the Angle-leasing expose and why? Grateful as the people of Kenya are that this thing came out in the open, it is equally important to find the answers to some of these nagging questions.

Suddenly after the Anglo-leasing scandal broke, the Kibaki family started seeing things in exactly the same light as the Mois and the Kenyattas. The scandal initiated the Kiabkis to join this grouping because now the family was linked to a scandal involving grand corruption and the theft of resources belonging to the people of Kenya.

One does not need to be a genius to see the direction in which the country is dangerously heading to. It is a place called "payback time." You know how in those predictable and fun action movies the star gets all sorts of nasty things done to them and then conveniently around the middle of the movie, they say enough is enough and start to fight back? Well, in this particular Kenyan movie we are already at that half-way mark. It is a much wiser electorate that politicians are going to face next year and in my opinion many of them are in for the shock of their lives.

The Moi family (with it's well-documented giraffe-like tendencies which enables a person to see what is coming in the distance, well before it comes into view for other ordinary mortals) can already see what's coming. They have therefore joined hands with the Kibakis and Kenyattas to ensure that somehow we never reach that place called "pay back time."

Pay-back-time means that what the Kenyattas and Mois fought so hard to avoid in the proposed new constitution will be back with a vengeance. If you read the newspapers in Kenya every day and listen to the news, you will be able to feel the "pulse of the nation" and what ordinary Kenyans want to see. Actually the truth is that Kenyans are fed up of empty rhetoric. They want action, they want the corrupt (who make up the most powerful and rich families of Kenya) to pay back what they have taken.

What everybody sees now is Moi suddenly campaigning very hard, as if he were still president. Meanwhile the real president seems to have suddenly vanished. We also hear many dissenting voices within Kanu asking the former president to stay out of politics. Meanwhile the people who should be complaining the most, the Kibaki administration, are dead silent. What the noise-makers in Kanu do not seem to realize is that the old constitution that gives the President of Kenya powers that are close to those of God over people's lives, is still in place. Meaning that whether we like it or not, Moi is now one of the most powerful men in the land. It is clear that he has been given the assignment of keeping the royal families from harm's way. Lots of power has been delegated to him to achieve this objective.

In private when the royal families sit down for some nyama choma, what do you think they discuss? Poverty levels amongst ordinary Kenyans? Lack of jobs? Rising crime? You must be joking! They discuss investments and mostly they discuss the future. The future they would be most comfortable with. You can be sure that the future they would be most comfortable with is not the same sort of future you and I would be comfortable with.

So picture this situation. Uhuru's popularity is constantly on the rise but President Kibaki keeps on campaigning unto the eleventh hour. Then he suddenly steps down and supports Uhuru. Every fool knows that the entire Kikuyu vote with just a few pockets of supports elsewhere in the country is enough to win the presidency. So before anybody can say nyumba ya Mumbi, the elections will be over and the royal family will still be safely in control.

Or picture another eventuality. Kibaki and the Narc Kenya party officially merges with Kanu at the 11th hour that means that Uhuru Kenyatta is on the same side as President Kibaki. KANU then presents a vice presidential candidate. Uhuru remains the leader of Kanu. That candidate could be Gideon Moi, or it could be William Ruto. It could be anybody but the important thing is that once again Kenya's royal families remain safely in control.

With the royal families united, anything is possible (Yote yawezekana) and the sad thing is that their interests are in direct confrontation with the interests of the people of Kenya.