Kenyan General Elections 2007: Scenario Moves Closer To America Presidential Race 2004

It is never a good idea for a writer to keep on saying, "I told you so," when their analysis proves accurate. It is a sign of a writer desperate to be proved right and not the sort of analyst people like to read because they trust his or her judgement and analysis of issues.

So I try very hard to avoid that petty I-told-you-so nonsense.

However events in recent days have confirmed that we are rapidly heading towards a two-man horse race for the presidency. We already know who one candidate is, courtesy of his bold wife who told us quite early that not only is her husband standing, but she too will seek political office. First Lady Lucy Kibaki has been much more decisive and consistent than many in the Kibaki administration. The other candidate remains a guessing game but regular readers of this blog will already know who it is going to be.

Trade Minister Mukhisa Kituyi, speaking in his Kimilili consituency over the weekend took yet another pot shot at his party chairman, Musikari Kombo saying that it was unrealistic for Ford Kenya to join the LDP alliance (ODM in other words). Kituyi predicted that LDP and Raila will find themselves in the opposition after the 2007 polls.

In Vihiga, former Sabatia MP and the man who has the distinction of having held the Vice President's seat for the shortest time in Kenyan history, Musalia Mudavadi was saying the opposite. Mudavadi urged Ford Kenya to make their decision quickly and join LDP.

Notice that nobody is talking about any other grouping. Of course KANU will make every pretence that it is going it alone but all this is playing to the gallery and also ensuring that the "bride price" for the inevitable marriage will be as high as possible.

The biggest point of contention for readers of this blog has been just how powerful and influential Moi is. It is the feeling of most that Moi is no longer a power to reckon with. What with all the statements being made by Kalenjin leaders to the effect that the old man should stay out of politics.

Thinking that Moi is powerless is a great miscalculation. As I have said before the old man has made a career out of being underestimated. Just look carefully at how he played his cards. First he came out strongly opposing the proposed new constitution in the run up to the November referendum. Then shortly after that he was seen as President Kibaki's side.

I will tell you a brief story to put this issue of Rift Valley support to rest once and for all.

In the run-up to the 2007 polls, there was a lot of opposition to Moi within Rift Valley. Many Kalenjins who are non-Turgens (Moi is a Turgen) felt at the time and still do today that they did not enjoy any part of the national cake during Moi's tenure. They believe that this was reserved only for Turgens who are very few in number and are considered to be the least developed of the Kalenjin tribes. Nandis are the ones considered to be the most developed. What makes them even more bitter is the fact that they have had to bear the brunt of the backlash on the Kalenjin community from other Kenyans especially over issues of corruption and other perceived sins of the Moi presidency.

In 1997 I got very excited when I noted this rebellion amongst the Kalenjin. I was sure that the opposition parties, divided as they were had a fighting chance against Moi. And so did DP presidential candidate then, Mwai Kibaki who intensified his campaign in the Rift Valley.

When the election results started trickling in, I was amazed. Rift Valley stuck with Kanu and Moi. The answer to this mystery was simple. Moi like George W. Bush is a pro at using "fear" to get votes. George W used Osama bin Laden to get re-elected in 2004. The message to Americans was simple, vote for the guy you’re sure can handle Bin Laden. It worked. Moi used the phobia of Kikuyus to get re-elected in 2007.

He simply told the Kalenjin community to choose between him and a Kikuyu presidency. This is one of the reasons why he found it so difficult to sell Uhuru Kenyatta (a Kikuyu) to his own tribes mates in 2002. They got very confused after what had happened in 1997 and Kikuyu phobia was still very much in them. They preferred the Kikuyu candidate who had a strong alliance with other Kalenjin leaders and a vice presidential running mate (The late Wamalwa Kijana) that they trusted.

All that Moi will need to kindle this time, is the long held mistrust between the Kalenjin and Luo tribes that has been going on for centuries. This is assuming that Raila Odinga will be the ODM candidate.

I am now convinced that Moi seems to have a score to settle with Raila. The old man has something to prove once and for all before he goes quietly into retirement proper.