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I sincerely do not see President Kibaki sitting in the opposition benches come January 2008 should he lose his re-election bid later this year. So the question arises, what will happen? And even if he resigns his parliamentary seat and a by-election takes place shortly thereafter, who will be official leader of the opposition? Will the situation allow for a peaceful change of leadership in the opposition benches? (Remember the troubles Narc-Kenya have had filling the chairman's post—who automatically becomes the party and country Vice President?)
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Also published today
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Quip for the day:
Some of our readers have started calling the founders of this blog dreamers. Wow!! What a compliment. They said the same about Nelson Mandela in the 60s and even late 80s. They said the same about Wilbur and Orville Wright (the guys who invented mechanised flight)
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And just how fair will this whole scenario be to the people of Othaya, asking them to go back to the polls so soon after what is widely expected to be the most bruising battle in the history of elections in these shores? Naturally nobody seems to be giving much thought to these very real possibilities. Those who should be thinking about these things obviously consider them to be peripheral and of no consequence since the whole concentration is on the winner-takes-all battle for the presidency. What the opposition and government are busy and keen on are power games and the introduction of clauses to tame each other in the forthcoming mother of all political battles in Kenya.
And the worries and concerns do not end with President Kibaki. We have seen just how powerful and effective a former president can be, even after leaving office. Do we want future former presidents actively involved in politics? This is going to be a pertinent issue because even if future former presidents will not be as wealthy as Moi is, the constitution now allows such a generous package and retirement benefits that they will have plenty of cash and staff paid for by the taxpayer, to cause lots of mischief.
In fact in the case of Kenya, if President Kibaki loses this election, we will have a situation where two former presidents with vast resources can let lose their political ambitions and settle old scores if they so wish. Just the sort of scenario that can cause great instability in our young democracy that is yet to build strong enough institutions to allow for smooth transitions, irrespective of the characters and morality of the holders of the key relevant offices.
It really does not matter which angle you view things from, a Moi/Kibaki axis is capable of doing a lot of damage and tripping up the newly elected government in 2008. Let's take the simple example of corruption issues. Both former presidents will obviously be targets if any serious purge or fight against corruption is attempted. What kind of chaos will such a move cause in the current environment where the constitution is conveniently quiet on the political parameters for retired presidents? In other words, these two gentlemen are well able to hold the entire nation at ransom and oppose the will of the majority of Kenyans for their own personal and selfish ends as well as for self-preservation.
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Chris, you hypothetical hypothesis is spot on and reflects the wider malady bedeviling Kenya. Our polticians always delude themselves that they are the best gift that ever happended to their constituents since sliced bread. And there lies the fallacy and the root cause of all our problems that can be correctly traced to lack of focussed leadership.
ReplyDeleteHaving hit the nail past the wood surface, expect tirades and tandrums from Kibaki's supporters. But the truth remains the guy's predicament, whether he looses or not, is a case study of selfish leadership bereft of any long term interest of Othaya residents and Kenyans in general.
Sitting pretty in your sunset years as you hold your constituents hostage to your indecisivess is the height of ggrandiose political fraud. His psychophants can hap on anything they fancy to shout about his non-existent capabilities, but that is true poltics. The chap is past his sell by date and as all items marked so you can still buy and use it after the said date but it is no value for money besides potential health (read political) risk.
Othaya people are not without blemish either. With due respect, they seem stuckin a time warp and held hostage to the village genius of 1950s. They gave us the desaster of tokensim modelled on outdated Makerere ideals of the last millennium. We need a fresh start to our national life and time is up to let poltical dinosaurs head to their right abode, museum. I rest my case.
Chris, I find your worries regarding a post Kibaki Kenya a little out of place. Its as if life cannot go on without Kibaki and Moi. How did we make it before his tenure, when unga and fuel was cheaper, when internal refugees were less and the press was free?
ReplyDeleteMy take is that Kibaki himself is very much an unwilling 2007 presidential candidate and would have preferred to retire honourably. This 2007 elections is against his own volition and is most likely being forced to run for another term by his family, business associates, muthaiga golfers and overzealous NARC K politicians. Mrs. Lucy Kibaki was the first person to declare Mwai Kibaki's intention to run in 2007! He has so far remained scared of declaring which party ticket he will stand on.
Remember this guy was the last to join opposition ranks and was very reluctant to resign from Moi government while the likes of Rubia, Matiba and Raila were already serving solitary detention stints in Naivasha GK prison, while Orengo, Shikuku and Anyona were leading wananchi to Kamkunji. And once in opposition, he disappointed many by leading a tribal party and he only served as leader of official opposition for only one term.
Even after being voted in by a majority in 2002, he was later forced to poach opposition MPS so as to stabilize his own government barely 2 years after being elected. What happened? What went wrong? So far, he has proven to be very indecisive and afraid of tackling issues head-on. Even releasing commission of enquiry reports is an impossible task! I have in mind the Artur's, Ndungu Land Commission, Goldenberg reports to name just but a few.
I certainly will not miss him come 2008.
Retrogressive. No comments. Phil. Please stop reasoning over such. Losing in Othaya or as kenyan president. Chris, Do you know the might of Kibaki? Ask one MP who was once fronted by Moi to stand against him. Raila, Moi, Matiba, Masinde Muliro, Oginga Odinga, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi cannot and will not lose in a democratic election
ReplyDeleteThis is laughable. My second biggest prayer is for Kibaki to lose the elections, the first one is for Kibaki to win the elections if he is being compared to some political failures i know. Phil just to let u know Kibaki has enough more important matte3rs than thinking, eating,drinking and commentating political soccer. Taabu with all due respect let us give credit where it is due. I refer u to the "Up close and candid" inerview Kibaki gave the Nation in the month of August 2002 and u will understand that he is not held in awe by many in vain. When it comes to intellect then I will be the first one to concede that my preferred candidates Kalonzo and huru do not measure up. If these dont then i dont know who does.
ReplyDeleteIf Kibaki led a tribal party can antbody tell me what Raila led before Moi intervened? That must be a clan party for sure.
I detest the Kibaki administration but it sucks when all we see is the bad side and use a lot of big words to magnify something that doesnt exist.
This is a big pity
Vikii, everytime someone mentions Kibaki, in your head you must compare with Raila?
ReplyDeleteAnd I think the point was Kibaki winning the Othaya seat but losing State House, forcing him to retire from parliamentary politics, then a by-election in Othaya.
I fail to understand why/how some people hate/fear Raila so much. I recently bought Not Yet Uhuru, [written by his father]to go back into history and understand the genesis of all this. I would appreciate anyone's genuine informed opinion on this.
I come from a very small tribe (actually a combination of 4 small tribes!!), so is easy for me to sit with fellow Kenyans and ask them their views without them getting too emotional (Kikuyus and Luos) or defensive (Kalenjins & Luhyias), but still this one I have no clue. Why do people hate/fear Raila?