The constituency Fidel Odinga will easily win

Fidel Odinga will enter parliament without breaking into a sweat.

I have been accused by some of my dear readers of being anti-Raila. Of writing long posts and including the names of others merely as window dressing because the main objective of my article is always to shoot down one Raila Odinga.

I have nothing against Raila Odinga. I personally believe that this country owes the man a lot as few people have fought as hard and as long as he has against impunity over the years. Few have sacrificed more. Having said that Raila the politician has also done great damage in his relentless quest for power. That is the truth. And this blog is about the truth and nothing but the blunt truth. Kumekucha has become famous for saying what others fear to say.

Personally I greatly pity those of us who would want to hero-worship a person while turning a blind eye to their down side. Regular readers of this blog will know that I greatly admire the late Tom Mboya, but if you read my posts I have had no hesitation in talking about his bad side. In my humble view hero-worshippers have no place in political analysis. They should just stick to their god’s website and trade praises till the cocks come home and leave bold, deep political analysis to those who can handle it.

Raila, always the heir-apparent to the political mantle of his father the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga stuck close to his dad for many years and watched his every move from a very tender age. Little wonder that his politics borrows a lot from the old man.

And now Raila is preparing to pass on the mantle to the next generation of Odingas and this move is well worth analyzing in great detail.

Fidel Odinga has increasingly been in the spotlight in recent times and over the Easter weekend he led a delegation of “young Turks” to Mombasa for a political meeting-cum-fundraiser at the heart of Najib Balala’s Mvita constituency. At that meeting Fidel announced once again that he will vie for a parliamentary seat in 2012. And what he had to say confirmed details I had gathered from some research that I have now been doing for sometime.

Fidel said that he would stand for one of the constituencies in Nairobi. Now we already know that he will not stand in Langata one of the reasons being that his dad is not quite ready to retire from politics yet. And that information narrows down the “possibles” considerably. Based on my research it narrows down the choices to ONE.

Fidel Odinga will make a bid for the Kasarani parliamentary seat.

Apart from the big hints from the Odinga youngster, those who understand the Odinga dynasty style of politics will know without any hints that the seat that Fidel has been talking about all along is Kasarani.

It is instructive how Raila moved in to dominate the Langata constituency he still represents. There was massive voter registration at the constituency from folks hailing from a certain ethnic community and they came from all parts of Nairobi. They quickly netralized the Nubian vote which had held sway in the area since independence. Raila handlers ensured that the arithmetic was greatly in favour of their man, whatever happened. This intensive behind-the-scenes preparation is something Jaramogi learnt from his great political rival Tom Mboya. The younger cosmopolitan man who always seemed to outsmart him at every turn. And Jaramogi learnt the lesson very well.

Kasarani constituency used to be called Mathare mainly because the sprawling Mathare slums are at the heart of the constituency.

Here is the list of people who have represented this constituency since independence;

Elections MP Party Notes
1963 Munyua Waiyaki KANU
1969 Munyua Waiyaki KANU One-party system
1974 Munyua Waiyaki KANU One-party system
1979 Munyua Waiyaki KANU One-party system
1983 Andrew Ngumba KANU One-party system. Ngumba fled the country in 1986.
1986 Josephat Karanja KANU By-elections, One-party system
1988 Josephat Karanja KANU One-party system.
1992 Muraya Macharia FORD-Asili
1994 Fredrick Masinde Democratic Party By-elections. Masinde died, resulting in another by-elections.
1994 Ochieng Mbeo Ford-Kenya By-elections (second one in 1994)
1997 Adolf Muchiri NDP
2002 William Omondi NARC
2007 Elizabeth Ongoro ODM

The vast majority of constituents in Mathare (Kasarani) right up to the early 90s were mostly Kikuyu and this is clearly reflected in the names of the legislators who represented the constituency right up to the early 90s. The Odinga political machine moved into the constituency after the first multi-party elections of 1992 with massive voter registration by members of the Luo community from all over Nairobi. And the result of the hard work behind the scenes clearly came out in the by-election of 1994 when Ford-Kenya’s Ochieng Mbeo won the seat. But by-elections are not a good test because they are usually marked by low voter turn out. And so things became pretty clear in 1997 when Raila himself was a presidential candidate on an NDP ticket. In a smart political move he chose to have close ally Adolf Muchiri (a Kikuyu) vie for the seat on a NDP ticket to give him a more nationalist look which is critical for any presidential candidate. Muchiri won effortlessly.

Currently there is fresh voter registration going on and my sources tell me that there is a lot of hard work going on on the ground mostly from Raila people. Further evidence that this is the political seat being warmed for Fidel.

Those wannabes who just want to wake up one morning when election fever is highest and decide that they are vying for a parliamentary seat should take careful note of this post and the fact that elections are usually won at the voter registration stage. So clearly this is the time to start working.

And what’s more about the Kasarani seat is that the current MP Elizabeth Ongoro may have a date at the Hague soon which means that in the event of the next general elections not happening until late 2012, then there just might be a by-election sooner than anybody thought.


--------------------------------------------

Stop Press: Largest ever Microfinancing Conference happens Tomorrow in Nairobi

When historians sit down one day to write the story of how Africa rose from the ashes, I have no doubt on my mind that there will be at least one large chapter on Micro-financing and the role it has played.

Micro-financing has been a huge success story on the continent indeed institutions like Equity Bank, now renowned the world over got their start (and have continued to thrive) in micro-financing.

Tomorrow (April 7th) President Kibaki will be joined by Queen Sofia of Spain, Princess Maxima of the Netherlands and Nobel prize Laurette Mohammed Yunus of Bangladesh at the opening of the largest microfinancing gathering ever held on the continent of Africa. About 1,500 delegates from over 75 countries are expected.

The Summit will shine a spotlight on breakthroughs to end poverty in the region including: the intersection of microfinance and the environment; microfinance and agriculture, and microfinance and health. The goal of the Summit is to further catalyze commitment among practitioners in Africa and the Middle East to reach and empower the poorest people across the region.

Microfinance is often not considered the same as other aid programs because people access tiny loans for setting up a business, as well as, loans for housing, education, and even clean energy—loans that they pay back. Because microfinance has a history of providing people with a hand-up and not a hand-out many traditional aid agencies are looking to the field for lessons on how to help make their programs become more sustainable.

But what I am really looking forward to learning more about is the amazing cutting edge program for the ultra-poor that is being replicated in 9 countries globally. The program combines assets such as goats and chickens with training in order to graduate the destitute to a life of self-sufficiency.

Kumekucha classifieds: Calling Kenyan ladies in the diaspora

Open email letter to Ocampo: Kenyans want you to go straight for these 3

Hello Luis,

You don’t know me and we have never met but I have some very important things to say that should greatly help you in the colossal task ahead of you.

Since this is an open letter I am aware that many Kenyans will read it and passionately agree or disagree with me. My appeal to them is simple. The future of our country depends on us getting to the bottom of the mystery behind what happened in December 2007 and January 2008. This is a good time to clear our heads of all the propaganda that has been flying left right and centre and all the tribal emotions that have been very deliberately whipped up inside us. We need to get rid of all this excess baggage and focus on the truth. The whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Kenyans celebrating

But before I tell you what you probably already know, let me tell you a little story. Kindly oblige me, because Kenyans who have been reading my blog over the years will tell you that I love to tell stories. And sometimes I like to think that they help folks to get to the gist of things quickly. You be the judge, sir.

There was this father of many sons who though of himself as a genius. He hardly needed advice from anybody because he KNEW that he knew everything and nobody could outthink him or give him advice.

One day his first born son committed suicide. He left a detailed note explaining why he had taken his life. You see unknown to anybody else, a long time ago the old man had wanted to be a medical doctor but he did not quite qualify to go to university to study medicine. And so he purposed that before he dies his son must achieve what he had failed to achieve so many years earlier. He did everything in his power to make this happen. But all the time the genius did not realize one simple truth. He was trampling on the dreams of his first born. The boy was an excellent artist and he had the makings of being a great painter. But alas, the genius could not allow him to paint. Paint!!! What kind of stupid career was that? Somebody had to be really stupid to take up such a vocation. It wasn’t even a proper career, the genius KNEW.

And so when his first born defied him one day to follow his dreams, the old man cursed him. And after that there was no way that the poor son could make it in life, even where he was gifted. When the first born son discovered this truth (very late in life when he had become so frustrated) he despaired and quickly took his own life. What else could he do, he reasoned.

The genius decided that he would now transfer his big dream to the second born son. And so he went on and on through all his sons (and even his two daughters) without quite fulfilling his dream. He ended up a bitter and disappointed old man. But guess where the biggest damage was done? It was with his children. Everybody is born with a certain talent and gift and the worst thing anybody can do is to shut down somebody else’s dream. In many cases it is better just to murder them and get it over with. It is a lot kinder.

Even after all the damage that had been done, “the genius” did not believe he had done anything wrong. After all he had wanted the best for his children and never delayed in paying school fees. So what mistake had he done?

The moral of this story is that damage will continue to be done until the day somebody identifies the root cause of the whole problem and dares to deal with it. And many times it may not be so obvious to the casual observer who fears to dig deeper.

Kenya is at a very dangerous time of her history. What we need most at this stage is to identify the root cause of our problems (especially the more recent ones) and call them out by name without fear or favour.

And that is exactly how I will identify what really caused the problems that almost shut down Kenya in December 2007 and January 2008.

There are three people most responsible for what happened to us as a nation. Some of these people are convinced that what they did was for the good of Kenya and Kenyans, whatever the price that was paid.

Mr Ocampo, even if you do not haul these three people to the Hague to face charges it is in the best interests of Kenyans that these folks are completely kept out of Kenyan politics. More on that at the end of this open letter to you.

To understand what happened we need to remind ourselves of the events following the heady 2002 presidential elections where Kenyans finally got rid of an animal called KANU (or so they thought) from State house. You have never seen serious celebrations like the ones we saw in December 2002. A poor chap who couldn’t even swim dived into the murky waters of Uhuru park in sheer ecstasy and emerged muddy and wet but he didn’t care. (Remember the amazing footage of the swearing in of president Kibaki while he was still on a wheelchair that memorable December?

Actually if that man who dived into the waters at Uhuru park could have gotten a peek into the future and seen what was coming he would have stayed in the dirty waters of the Uhuru Park pond and drowned himself.

What followed was squabbling over an MOU (Memorandum of understanding) that was signed between Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki. President Kibaki may have done a terrible thing to dishonour the MOU but I dare ask what did Raila want or expect? To share power with Kibaki? To have Kibaki run back to him before he made any major decisions? Or perhaps he wanted acknowledgement from Kibaki that the man would never have gotten elected president without him (Raila). Whatever his real motives this man Raila Odinga began a war to discredit the Kibaki administration from within. At one point Raila openly told Kenyans to expect a general election soon.

So I put it to you that the person who put in motion the chain of events that provoked the deaths of so many Kenyans in December 2007 was in fact Raila Odinga.

I can already feel the stones being hurled at me. But engage your brains for a minute and put yourself in the shoes of Mwai Kibaki. What would you have done under the circumstances? Would you have quietly given in and let Raila have his way?

Indeed let historians record that the biggest mistake Raila Odinga made in 2007 was to ignore a proverb that founding father President Mzee jomo Kenyatta had used years earlier in response to a “change the constitution group” whose clear objective was to make sure that Vice President Daniel Moi never took over power from Jomo Kenyatta. Kenyatta quietly called them fools and advised them that when you want to subdue a bull, you NEVER show it the rope you are going to do it with. You just don’t. Mr Ocampo sir, I know that you will be able to identify with this proverb because I happen to know you are familiar with bull fighting.

Kenyans will remember what ODM was doing in the run up to the general elections in December 2007? It was as if Raila was already living in State house. Well you can call it the usual way with politics but I pray that you try and wear Mr Mwai Kibaki’s shoes there for a minute. What would you have felt if it was you? What would you have done? What would you have been pushed or provoked to do?

So the first guilty party in the mess we found ourselves in is Mr Raila Odinga. He is guilty of provocation. He provoked one Mwai Kibai to commit murder. Now in law Mr Odinga is NOT guilty of any criminal offence. However his actions allow some sort of mitigation from the person who went on to commit murder. If he has some good lawyers they can ask for the charges to be reduced to manslaughter. However there is only one little problem here. The man did not murder one or two people. In fact the Kenyan government still (officially) insists that about 600 people lost their lives in the dark events following those presidential elections. The press has stuck on the figure of about 1,000. Kumekucha sticks on the figure of close to 5,000 souls.

Now the next thing that happened was that Mwai Kibaki had to do something. Wouldn’t you? And so he rigged the presidential elections. If you have the newspapers that reported the general election tallies then you have valuable evidence that Mr Ocampo needs to look at to prove that the elections DID NOT reflect the clear will of the Kenyan people and that was part of the provocation to the troubles that followed. There is even more evidence to the effect that shortly before the delayed presidential elections was announced a number of highly “suspicious” things happened. The then police commissioner had what has to be his lengthiest press conferences ever where he dwelt on the issue of folks accepting election results without resorting to violence. Then many Kenyans also witnessed riot police surrounding and sealing off the city mortuary. Were they guarding dead bodies? Let me just stop there.

My point is that by simply reviewing the events that resulted from orders given by somebody from government shortly before “the results” were announced a lot of things will become very clear. And that is the president and his aides “knew” he had “won” the elections before the results were announced.

Mr Ocampo for Kenyans to see that justice has been done, somebody has to take responsibility for those lethal “orders” and that person should not be the then police commissioner Maj Gen Hussein Ali only. Not even the then minister in charge of internal security only.

The third person most responsible for the loss of life is one William Ruto. He fanned up emotions amongst the Kalenjin people mainly for his own political gain. Have you ever seen a person become a political kingpin for a whole community virtually overnight, unseating somebody like Moi who has held sway over the community for over half a century? Things happen suddenly in an election when people stir emotions. I am reliably informed that the evidence that would link this man to direct involvement in the violence is the kind that would not be admissible in a court of law in Kenya. But the Hague might be a different ball game altogether. Only that I fear this smart man has made a deal with those who have access to this evidence and therefore it will never be released to you Mr Ocampo.

Kindly excuse me for a minute, Mr Ocampo and let me address myself to my fellow Kenyans very directly for a minute.

Fellow Kenyans put your party and tribal affiliations aside for a minute and put on your thinking caps.

Everybody fears the next general elections and there is a lot of anxiety that violence could break out yet again and this time it could be a lot worse. Now what if something was done to stop these three people exercising any kind of political influence over the elections in 2012? For starters they should not even be allowed to run as councilors. Don’t you think it would magically diffuse all tensions and guarantee a very peaceful election?

Mr Ocampo I am sure that many Kenyans will agree with me over that last statement I have just made. And this is yet another reason why you must make sure that your investigations focuses on these 3 people (before anybody else) and that they are held responsible for the loss of life of so many innocent, poor Kenyans whose blood is crying out from the ground and no doubt this may be one of the reasons why you Mr Ocampo appear to be so driven to see justice done in Kenya.

Good luck sir and one last piece of advice. It is critical that at all times that you are involved in these investigations that you imagine yourself in a pit full of the most poisonous snakes in the world. And actually sir, that is exactly what you have done sticking out your neck to investigate this matter. Take every little precaution when you are in the country. Never use the same car, instead rely on the available excellent car rental services in Nairobi, even for limousines. Be careful when you eat in restaurants (kindly compare notes with one retired Detective inspector John Troon. But whatever happens be sure that the vast majority of Kenyans across political affiliations are cheering you on. Go Ocampo, go!!

Good luck sir, turning stones that are way too heavy to be turned and have NEVER EVER been turned.

Wakaribishwa Kenya nchi ambayo hakuna matata.