Commission Of Inquiries And The Government’s Stale Old Tactics To Deal With A National Crisis

As predicted in an earlier post (see paragraph 7 in this post) a Nairobi lobby group says the government is preparing to appoint a commission of inquiry into the Anglo-leasing saga.(See story about this claim here)

But what has even more interesting this week is that finally the government strategy on dealing with the scandal has started to unfold. It is a strategy which clearly illustrates the problem which has dogged this administration right from the beginning. Namely 1970s-thinking and the same old now-stale solutions and delaying tactics. It is clear that there is a total lack of any creativity or new ideas, aspects that Kenyans need badly in their government in these unpredictable times.

This is the strategy:

- Get the cabinet to issue a statement defending the President and pledging that investigations already under way will be speeded up. (This was done on Monday this week albeit with a poor showing of about 5 ministers cliaming to represent the entire cabinet).
- Damage control by warning the media that they have already over-stepped the mark by linking the President’s untainted name to the scandal and threatening legal action to discourage any brave gutter press from taking up the story and stating what has already been read between the lines clearly for those who don’t read between the lines to understand and comprehend.
- Politicize the whole issue by blaming it on enemies of the government (without being specific) keen to bring it down.
- Behind the scenes lobbying and pressure to bring things under control. Uisng the vast government machinery to its’ maximum.

Many Kenyans reading this article will be disgusted because the feeling on the ground at the moment is that the thieves behind Anglo-leasing should be prosecuted immediately irrespective of who they are in government. Period. Many Kenyans will therefore not see the point in my analyzing the very strategy that is designed to defend the culprits of Anglo-leasing and prevent them from facing justice.

The reason I have done this is to illustrate the weaknesses within the current administration which are responsible for fanning the political crisis the country is now faced with.

The strategy will fail for many reasons. I want to mention two of the main ones here.
Firstly it is not going to impress the donors (one important target group). In fact already the World Bank has announced the with-holding of 15 billion in development Aid until the government can show some seriousness in dealing with corruption (see story here)

Secondly it will definitely not impress the Kenyan voter who is now very experienced in sifting out the truth from the government propaganda (right from the days of the Moi administration to the promises of the Narc government that never even took off.

So who is the government speaking to?

Sadly this is a reflection once again of the kind of people calling the shots in the Kibaki administration – a couple of old men cushioned by their immense wealth from the current reality on the ground and still living very much in the 70s when there was only one government-controlled radio and TV station and when no newspaper would dare mention the name of the President in any article that had not been penned by the Presidential press unit or Kenyan News Agency. The cold war was still on and the world was a very different place.

What Moi Would Have Probably Done To Deal With Anglo Leasing

Had the self proclaimed professor of Politics still been President…

Mere speculation this, but based on the professor of politics’ track record and ability to make a political about-turn for the sake of survival.

1) Sack 2 ministers mentioned in the Nation report and move with speed to announce that full investigations are being carried out.

Do not be fooled. The idea here is to give the public and the donors, the impression that something is being done. People forget quickly. Give them everything to help them forget quickly. Meanwhile these changes will not affect the kitchen cabinet and his close aides, sit it is business as usual. Of course precautions will be taken to be more careful the next time. This one would work very well with the donors and upcountry voters (the vast majority of voters). So even if Nairobians continued to make their usual noise its’ effects would be diffused.

2) Speak publicly about the scandal, distancing the government from corruption
When the youthful President John F. Kennedy was faced with the Bay of Pigs scandal – a botched up CIA operation to overthrow the Cuban government of Fidel Castro that went badly wrong with heavy loss of life – he chose to take it head on. He addressed the nation, took full responsibility and apologized. It worked like a dream, diffusing the situation and catching critics flat-footed. His ratings soared.

Moi was no Kennedy but he knew the power of communicating to the public in a sincere-looking way. He would have denounced the scandal at one of his many public road-side rallies. The professor of politics would have looked very angry and talked at length about how corruption affects the poor mwananchi for who he stands for.

He would probably have said something like, "Hii Shetani Anglo-leasing tutaimaliza.." (This devil, Anglo-leasing, we will finish him.)

3) Distribute money behind the scenes like crazy
Money answers all things. It is amazing the things you can get people to do after handing over a couple of million shillings to them. The Moi administration had perfected the art of combining money and the sheer muscle of government to get things done and to even reverse public opinion.

The ordinary mwananchi does not know the finer details and why the Moi administration had to be removed but currently many ordinary Kenyans are clearly stating their feelings;

"Afadhali Moi," they are saying. (Moi was better.)