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Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Why The Trump, Clinton Polls Were So Wrong

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Kenyans will remember a pornographic magazine called Seen that littered our streets for many years and made the publisher, whom I know, a fortune. It had a huge circulation but most of the folks who purchased the magazine were "invisible."

One ploy used to purchase the sordid rag was to ask a street vendor for a copy of the Daily Nation and then instruct him "weka hio yengine ndani" (put the other publication inside). All newspaper vendors would understand immediately  and slip the magazine inside the pages of the Daily Nation and the respectable, usually aging gentleman would walk away innocently. What everybody saw was a nice old man carrying the days' newspaper under his arm.

My immediate guess as to why the US presidential elections pollsters were so, so, so, wrong was that the vast majority of US voters were of the same mindset  as readers of SEEN magazine. And so I went straight to Google to ask the American experts if I was right.

The answer popped up immediately;

The Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll consistently pegged Trump as the leader throughout the final months of the campaign — and to much derision from political pundits.

Arie Kapteyn, director of the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, which jointly runs the poll, said some voters were apparently sheepish about admitting to a human pollster that they were backing Trump. But the L.A. Times/USC poll was based on an internet survey of a recruited group of voters.

Read the full how pollsters got Trump, Clinton election wrong article.

Well, if you did not know why porn sells so much better on the Internet than anywhere else, now you know... for sure.

The idea of Trump being president of the United States of America was a joke. Apparently so funny that the man was derided all the way into power and is now set to be the most powerful man on the planet. Yep, stop laughing because hundreds of millions of lives including yours and mine will be affected every time he coughs. Some joke I tell you.

The truth is that Trump has never looked presidential. Even now I am having great difficulties imagining the guy being called Mr President. Or the so-called-joker walking out of Airforce One to the salute of Marines. Don't even talk about a sit down with the joint chiefs.

Hardly surprising then that most of the folks who voted for him were too ashamed to admit the terribly shameful thing that they were about to do. However they had absolutely no problem doing it in secret at the ballot box. So whose laughing now after months of great fun on social media and elsewhere at Trumps' expense? I bet you some Kenyan somewhere is asking for a recount or the American IEBC to be disbanded immediately. Gosh!!!

They have always said in showbiz that no publicity is bad publicity. I never imagined in all my years of analyzing politics that this would also be true in politics. And I can tell you for free now that there are many parts of Kenya where our fellow countrymen had absolutely no idea who Donald Trump's challenger for the presidency was. Donald Trump anasimama na yule mwanamke sijui bibi ya nani (Donald Trump is running against that woman, somebody's wife, I have no idea what her name is.) I kid you not folks.

Wow!! and wow again!! 

It is no longer a joke that is why you must read;
What A Donald Trump Presidency Means For Kenyans

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hehehehehehe. As for me and my clan, we are still laughing LOL!!

Google
 
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