They say a week in politics can be a very long time and that is absolutely true. Ukweli mtupu.
Two days before the massive Ministry of health Kshs 5.3 billion scandal broke somebody asked me for a prediction on who will win next year's presidential general elections.
"If things remain the way they are," I said, "President Uhuru will be re-elected nyweeeeeeee (rough translation; without breaking into a sweat."
The person who was asking is an old friend and is a firm supporter of ODM and CORD. But he is a wise and a keen political analyst. And he acknowledged my prediction as being accurate.
The truth is that Uhuru's JUBILEE kicked off their campaign for re-election even before the ink had dried on the president's aoth of office document. Even as the opposition continued to fumble around, completely directionless in all their moves.
You may want to remember that there was a massive distribution of title deeds in Coast province which is an opposition stronghold. And there are numerous other examples I can give. The results were more effective than most Kenyans realize. In politics you do not need to win over the whole stronghold. All you need to do is make inroads and I can tell you that a significant number of CORD votes were moved in the direction of JUBILEE. Not enough for a turn around but enough to reduce the opposition votes significantly. My estimate is at least 20% and that is HUGE.
Then this 5.3 billion scandal came calling and everything has changed rather dramatically and suddenly. For soccer fans, what JUBILEE did was to not only score an own goal but they actually did it by giving the opposition striker a through pass. Never mind that the goalkeeper dived the wrong way when the shot was fired into the net.
Now all the opposition needs to do is to ensure that the narrative sticks to corruption in the JUBILEE administration. And that will not be too difficult to do. Already ODM (the principal party in CORD) is planning demonstrations to force Ministry of health officials out of office.
You see human decisions are all made based on emotion. We then quickly dress our emotional decisions with logic when we have firmly decided. The emotion ruling Kenyan hearts right now revolves around financial difficulties and that is just perfect for the opposition. All they need to do is remind Kenyans that corruption eats away at whatever money that is either already in their pockets or that they should have received. That gets voters very angry very quickly and angry voters vote decisevely with their anger.
In all my years of analyzing general elections in Kenya I can tell you that this fact alone is something that Uhuruto will find virtually impossible to shake off as we head to the elections.
One of the reasons is that JUBILEE cannot possibly do what needs to be done to neutralize this serious political threat. And that is to arrest everybody involved and to turn even the heaviest stones to prosecute all those involved in this massive swindling of public funds in broad daylight. But alas, that can NEVER happen in our banana republic. NEVER!!
P.S. In the next weeks and months expect a lot of stories like this one;
Top 20 corruption scandals under Uhuru's watch. Billions stolen