Readers email question to Kumekucha - I am one of those Kenyans utterly convinced that Kenyan voters cannot/will not legitimately elect Uhuru immediately after a ten-year Kikuyu presidency. The presidency in Kenya firmly remains a tribal affair in the eyes of the majority and nothing much has changed regarding that perception over the last decade.
A- I hear what you are saying. It is what I hear from a lot of well
educated elitist Kenyans and it makes plenty of sense. I think the
problem is that my analysis on kumekucha is based on the facts on the
ground and what the vast majority of voters are saying.
Personally I would hate to see another Kikuyu president because it is
NOT good for the country for obvious reasons. However the reason why
Kumekucha has such an amazing record for predicting political outcomes
many months in advance is because I try as much as possible to keep my
elitist views and opinions out of what I write.
Let me clarify the facts about Uhuru;
(i) The Kikuyu vote by itself (sheer numbers) is enough to get Uhuru to
the run off, more so because of the crowded field running for the presidency. But my facts on the ground indicate that candidate Uhuru has more support than
just the Kikuyu vote. For instance he has solid backing from the
extended GEMA bloc.
ii) Raila Odinga's popularity is a mirage that will melt before the eyes
of Kenyans. Raila won the 2007 elections by a landslide (according to
the figures I got of the real election results). However the votes he
got were protest votes against Kibaki and Kikuyu dominance. This time
round there will be no protest vote against the Kikuyu and even if there
is it will not necessarily go to Raila Odinga.
iii) My facts and figures on the ground agree with what a vast majority
of pollsters are saying. That if elections were held today the run off
would end up being between Raila and Uhuru. Now when you have a choice
of two candidates everything changes. Tribalism is watered down because
the electorate have a choice of only 2 candidates. Namely Uhuru and
Raila. GEMA are with Uhuru. The Kamba will never vote Raila. Coast
province are very pissed off with Raila just now for many reasons.
Western Kenya are mostly anti-Raila these days. Let me just stop there
because I am sure you get my drift by now.