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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Avid Kumekucha Reader's Prediction On Political Alliances For The Presidency 2013

Thanks Chris.

Your take seems very well informed and comprehensive. I could just be swayed into seeing it your way :-)

What seems really surprising is that Kenyans outside Central province and Gema may still want to give the House of Mumbi another ten years at statehouse - that to me is really baffling considering all the kikuyu-bashing that has happened under Kibaki's watch.

Surely, they can't hate Raila that much! 

Indeed Raila's game plan and ultimate wish is to meet UK in the run-off so that he or most likely his lieutenants can go round the country posing one simple question to Kenyans: "Kwani, hakuna kina mama wengine inje ya Central Province ambao wanaweza kuzaa marais?" 

I know I would craft that message if I was his Communications Director!

But now if you place Mudavadi against Raila - that game plan collapses like a ton of bricks. Thats why my predictions are that UK will be on the ballot as Mudavadi's running mate. While Ruto will be on the ballot as Raila's running mate.
 


Kumekucha's response;
With the benefit of hindsight and having analyzed a number of previous presidential elections my take is that it is way too early to determine what will happen.

Let me give you an example. In 2002 people were busy predicting various alliances. Finally predictions started flying about how NAK (Kibaki, Wamalwa and Ngilu) were not strong enough to beat Kanu. You know what happen at the 11th hour when the professor of politics declared the Kanu presidential candidate to be one Uhuru Kenyatta. Everything fell apart for Kanu. But even then the predictions continued about how there was no way the brand new Narc coalition would hold together and that it would go the same way the original FORD that united the entire opposition went in 1992.

Well this time round they were almost right and analysts like yours truly who know these politicians only too well are still baffled to this day how Simoen Nyachae was the only casualty and Narc remained intact, at least until the elections were over when the predictions of a break up swiftly came to pass and the consequences were so grave that the chain of events that followed culminated in the senseless loss of life that we saw in 2008.

Having warned as to how it is way too early to make any predictions let me be the first to go against my own rule of thumb and suggest that these elections will be like no other. My gut feeling is that all these alliances and pacts will finally come to naught and that the most unexpected thing will happen to give us the most unexpected result.

About Raila handlers spooking the electorate with the very idea of another Kikuyu at the helm for another 10 years, I don't think this strategy will work with all the big communities. For instance the Kamba will prefer a Kikuyu for 20 years to Raila. I know it's puzzling, I too am amazed because even my late father (a Kamba) could not hide his utter disgust at the fact that I voted Raila in 2007. The elite can reason and make all their smart arguments but on the ground candidate Uhuru is popular enough to beat Raila without too much sweat. Again I emphasize it is NOT the outcome I would favour but it is the reality on the ground. It seems that Jomo Kenyatta's propaganda against our Luo brothers was pretty effective and will take a lot to shake off. It will also demonstrate to those who love to analyze these things how powerful a protest vote is and the difference it makes when you change the scenario so that it is no longer a factor.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

The only pact I support as a Kikuyu is Mudavadi/Uhuru. With Uhuru as a running mate. I think Mudavadi would make a great President.
I pray these 2 will come together and form an alliance.

Luke said...

Chris,
what TRIBE are KUMEKUCHA READERS? just curious

Anonymous said...

Raila has already populated government plum jobs with his family members. Imagine what HADSOP3 would do if he was given another 5 years as the PORK?

Anonymous said...

It is election time again and I am back in Kumekucha regularly. Why? because last time round every single Chris Kumekucha came true including the one about it being the most violent election ever.

Kudos brother.

Chris, please start making regular posts about the coming elections and campaigns.

Taabu said...

Chris,

The adage no permanent friends nor enemies just permanent interests holds. In Kenya that poison is adulterated with tribal bigotry and what a potent mix.

Lest you forget, the 4th president will be inagurated abroad.

@Luka,

Wewe bure kabisa, ati satellite don.

Luke said...

@Taabu
which TRIBE are POLITICAL ALLIES from?just curious bro

Anonymous said...

@Chris,

How comes you did not predict the slapping of the attorney general, Githu Muigai in broad daylight by none other than Mike Sonko, the king of Zamunda?

Taabu said...

@Luka,

Please confirm or deny that you are a SATELLITE don

FYI PUNDOM party does not do alliances. But if we must (we are winning anyway!!) then the right tribe is LUKAKILUKA (wewe ndani). LOL

Anonymous said...

With regard to the shenanigans of forming last minute political alliances during any presidential election.

Well, well, well, how many of us have never heard of the old saying We hate to say that we told you so! in 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012 (2013), including 2017, 2022, 2033 and 2042?

It's an ugly statement of fact that always comes to fruition after so many broken hearts, angry minds, teary eyes, runny noses, blank faces, constricted throats, clinched fists, wounded souls saturated with untold regrets, and injured psyches fuming and sizzling with vengeance have been left to fend for themselves, or howw they allowed themselves to duped, or without knowing what just hit them.

We are in this together. We are united, and we are a force to be reckoned with.

So, don't promise (excite) us too much, don't get our high hopes, don't raise our expectations so high, don't let lead us on, don't let us come all the way, don't make us believe you this time around.

And don't let us meet you half-way, only for you to leave us in a complete mess and on the outside once you have achieved your primary
political or presidential objective after May of 2013.

The well calculated pacts, coalitions, and overnight political friendships that are being forged with deep foundations or plan B, C, and D, between several front runners and their political parties under the guise of propagating common political goals and to secure common ethnic, regional.

And whatever political interests, never amount to anything other than a concealed maneuver to procure five-to-ten more years of protecting all that will be eaten together at the expense of the multitude who always get duped into voting for who they really think and belive will represent their warped ethnic and regional best interests.

So, let the games continue while the new alliances are made until the last man or woman is left standing with all the spoils of presidential election.

Prediction - same old same old. Different faces here and there, new alliances here and there, but same old modi operandi.

Anonymous said...

There are some of us who will swallow our pride a bit by admitting the fact that when we were having an impromptu meeting with one of the presidential candidates several hours ago, we don't think we would have made the commitment we made if we had known what we were told and shown about his proven blatant tribal chauvinist record - when he is among his close friends and own people and away from the cameras - in the last fifteen years after the meeting.

Luckily, it goes without saying that a bold predication about this particular candidate has now been made by the majority of the people who were gathered at the afternoon meeting.

Simply put, his branta is cooked and he will not be the one ascending to the old colonial house on the hill after April of 2013, once the youtube begins to make its appropriate rounds among the electorate who were intending to offer him some consideration.

Saved by Grace said...

Why can't Kibaki just do another term,3rd and final. Problem solved.

Anonymous said...

Mmmmmh! once again Chris has infused the blog with his Alcohol-infused wisdom.


The Oracle has Spoken!

Anonymous said...

Kibaki can not be allowed just to do another third term otherwise the nation and its people will not saved by grace from presidetial episodes that have become so common on the continent.

Need I say more other than mention Levy Patrick Mwanawasa, Bingu wa Mutharika, Meles Zenawi, John Atta Mills, and others who will follow soon like King Roberto Mugabo, et al?

Mwarang'ethe said...

"Some want to tell us that Kenya belongs to all the people. Granted, I know that much.

But I have a question to ask: when we were shedding blood, some languished in prison and some suffering in the forests, fighting for UHURU, where were the BLOODY OTHERS?... If you want honey, bear the sting of the bee..."

So, said Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, the father of the KAMWANA, a.k.a MUTHAMAKI, in 1971.

Kwani, you BLOODY OTHERS didn't get that message?

And, have these BLOODY OTHERS forgotten the views of the last PERFIDIOUS ALBION Governor?

When he arrived, the perfidious Albion's STRATEGY was to create an ELECTORAL STALEMATE between KADU and KANU. So, much for the fair elections.

Anyway, after surveying the landscape, he opined to his bosses in the UK that:

"The only chance of peaceful progress coming to Independent Kenya was if the Kikuyu were free to assert their SUPERIOR ABILITIES in government."

With that view, Kenyatta and KANU WON that OPIUM SESSION.

NB: We just quoted. Nothing more.

And, by the way Mzee Taabu, we might need another article on biometric registration kits.

Any updates on HOW TO FEED the FRENCH KIDS as OUR STARVE OPIUM STRATEGY?

With that, we leave to enjoy:

No Ithui Twari Kuo:

http://is.gd/qRBbzW

Anonymous said...

[We] just quoted in ignorance of basic facts, and its nothing more but warped chauvistic revisionism.

1895, CHETEMBE.
2300 killed, 4000 cattle, 23000 cattle, 18450 sheep and goats captured
.

Kiroko kia nuthenya wa November 1904, TAITA.
- 130 killed, 1400 cattle, 2400 sheep and goats captured (confisticated).

May 1905, SOTIK.
- 92 killed, 2000 cattle, 3000 sheep and goats captured.

January 1906, NANDI.
- 1200 killed, 16000 (sixteen thousand) cattle, 36000 sheep and goats captured.

January 1908, KISII.
- 200 killed, 1200 cattle, 7000 sheep and 5000 goats captured.


'Gutiri Muthungu na mubia' (there is no difference between a colonialist and the high-priest for the home guards).

Anonymous said...

Further to the quotations at 10/19/12 12:40 PM and in response to the amnesiac question uttered by one chauvinist from a long bygone era: ... where were the ... others?

Well, here is a posthumous answer to the so-called father of negative ethnicity engineered and perfected in Kenya after December 12, 1963.

Looks like a butchering, Winston Churchill said when he heard of the Kisii Massacre.

And if the House of Commons gets hold of it, all our plans in the East African Protectorate will be under a cloud.

Surely, it can not be necessary to go on killing these indefenceless people on such an enormous scale!

For the people of Kenya - not just the people of Johnstone Kamau -, the price of Pax Britannica was high.

The slaughter of thousands, forced resettlement of whole tribes from actual traditional areas, the wanton distruction of thousands of homesteads and villages, and the confiscations of hundreds of thousands of cattle, sheep, goats and millions of chickens.

All areas and people living in the Rift Valley, Nyanza, Western, upper regions of the Coastal area and Central Kenya were adversly affected, and endured unimaginable horror under British colonial domination.


To whom it may concern: watch 'Kenya's Colonial Histoty Pt. 1-6'.

And do not forget to extend posthumous salutation to all those people that died without ever knowing the horrors that the other ... Kenyans were subjected to since the arrival of the Arab slave merchants and the British colonialists.

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