Kwaheri Bwana Ruto

Why is it that cases against suspended higher education minister William Ruto have been held at bay for such a long time and yet suddenly all of them have emerged out of the woodwork and have come back to haunt him big time? Was somebody holding the dogs off all this time and has now gotten out of the way? As it is Ruto is going to be very busy in court cases over the next couple of months (he has at least two major ones locally).
These are just some of the many questions Kenyans are now asking themselves as the Hague finally begins to catch up with some pretty big fish in Kenya (as has been predicted in this blog amid jeering, for a very long time now).

But for my post today I will focus on the lessons those who come after Ruto must take from from the story of this man. Ili iwe funzo kwa wengine. Ruto’s big mistake is that he got way too cocky after killing one giant too many. The first giant who fell to his knees in front of Ruto was one retired President Daniel arap Moi. The Kalenjins take their leaders very seriously and for many years the word of Moi was law in the community. Ruto dared to challenge that and won. His stunning victory for Raila and ODM in the 2007 general elections in Rift Valley will be analyzed for many years to come.

Next he challenged his own ally the mighty leader of ODM Raila Odinga and not only became a thorn in the flesh to Odinga for a long time, but to the surprise of some who worship Raila and believe he is nor ordinary mortal, Ruto did not suddenly fall dead and die (although he has lost a lot of weight since he went against Raila. In the end it was all too much, for the man whose quick road to glory started at the jobless corner near Hilton hotel, and it went into his head. Ruto decided to challenge for the ultimate price, the presidency of the republic of Kenya. According to his calculations he had a good chance to fell the constitution during the recent referendum and that would have uplifted his image tremendously. There was one big problem with the decision. It went against his biggest most powerful and yet secret allies, those close to President Kibaki. That is where the man’s real protection from prosecution had been coming from all along. And shortly thereafter the deal was off. And so it was just a matter of time before things started catching up with the Eldoret North legislator. It was as simple as that.

I am not sure if Ruto also saw the fact that the new constitution if passed was going to dramatically change the politics in Rift valley. The sum effect is that Ruto as self-proclaimed king of the Kalenjin would suddenly lose a lot of his clout. Let me explain. Before the current constitution Kenyan politics was based on constituencies. Boundaries for these were greatly fiddled with by former President Moi. Just to give a single example. Eldoret is divided in such a way as to make sure that all the three constituencies hive off a part of Eldoret town. The motive was to ensure that Eldoret Town was never allowed to be a constituency on its’ own because there has always been enough influence and numbers there to ensure a Kikuyu legislator elected. Now with the counties, although the boundaries are yet to be finalized, you can be sure that there will be plenty of counties within the Rift valley that will be headed by Kikuyu governors. Counties will influence constituency politics and not the other way round. In any event counties will take the focus away from tribes to where it should be, to development efforts and plans within specific counties. In other words the need for a tribal chief like Ruto to “fight for the rights of the community” have been dramatically diminished. Hopefully forever.

Much has been said about the new constitution and many skeptics told us here that it would hardly change anything. I was ridiculed for my child-like enthusiasm during the promulgation of the new constitution. A few weeks later the writing is on the wall. Big fish are facing trial in our courts, as you read this a man is in trouble for holding a woman’s backside without her permission and faces some serious charges (na mambo bado). Let me just say one thing. The written law of the land is a very powerful thing. You can fight for your rights until the cows come home but when there is no written law to back you, chances are you will not have much success. Now everything has changed. The new constitution by itself is a juggernaut trudging forward at increasing speed and it cannot be stopped. Be careful folks even as you enjoy the discomfort of the big fish because even small fish with bad manners like treating women like trash are on very thin ice now.

But then this post is about Ruto so I don’t want to go too far off from the man.

To his credit Ruto has seen trouble coming when it is still very far in the horizon. The main aim of his current expensive trip to the Hague was to give his lawyers an opportunity to feel around and see what kind of evidence Ocampo has against him. He wants to prepare his defense early. And contrary to what some Kenyans are speculating, the International courts at the Hague do not have plea bargain options where you plead guilty to a lesser offence or give the prosecution valuable evidence in return for a lighter sentence.

How close is Ruto to the famous song bird Emily Kosgey? If they are as close as the rumours have it, then he will need plenty of music (like King Saul) to sooth his troubled soul over the next few months or so.

Kwaheri bwana Ruto.

P.S. I predicted in this blog some time back that Ruto would finish Raila politically before his own demise. Well, it seems I was wrong about that one. But then who would have predicted the amazingly unexpected turn of events over the last few months. Who would have predicted that kenyans would have a new constitution long before Christmas 2010? Still my apologies. I was wrong. Umesikia Bwana Phil?

What you and other Kenyans never knew about the Kalenjins

Ruto winds up talks with Ocampo

Kumekucha extra:

1. Sticker being prepared for the exit of Mwai Kibaki reads; End of the 2nd error

2. Only in Kenya......do we use the word 'politics' to describe the process so well: Poli' in Latin meaning 'many' and 'tics' meaning 'bloodsucking creatures'.

Brave Ruto Panics, Calls The Hague Bluff

Naive or brave? Well call is courage, panic or whatever you fancy but Hon William Samoei arap Ruto has rattled both Kenya and the The Hague. After deriding ICC as irrelevant and snail-paced to act (remember 100 years?), Ruto has taken the battle right to Ocampo's doorstep and in its wake left all the PEV's suspects shaking in their boots like leaves at the mercy of ferocious desert gales.

That Ruto caught all and sundry by surprise is not debatable. And he could not have struck at a better time in his political life when he has no CABINET BAGGAGE which would have demanded clearance before booking a date with Moreno and his sleuths in The Netherlands.

Either Ruto is trailblazing in tilting/setting Kenya's political agenda or being plainly naive by attempting to preempt the inevitable. True to the adage either the guilty are very afraid or the brave chat their won paths. Take you pick. Either way Bill has left the other suspects with little room to wiggle. They must come out of the closet and publicly declare their stand, no two ways about it.

You can only imagine the impending political inferno if Ruto chooses to go SUICIDAL (security in numbers) with some PENTAGON minutes, either real or not. Spice that up with the unsettling fact that senior security officers have written to Ocampo vowing never to take responsibility for orders that came from the GOVERNMENT.

The recipe you get is a mix that leaves every politician sneezing and the stomach rubbling. Meanwhile they are left groping in the dark with Ocampo's sledgehammer lurking in the shadows. The Hague Express has gathered full steam and there is no disembarking. Nobody is safe. And what was that gimmick about AU resolution not to submit to the ICC again? NA BADO!!

Tanzania: Most popular presidential candidate did not do enough

Is Kikwete the most useless president Tanzania ever had? Was Nyerere justified in denying him the presidency?

All indications are that President Jakaya Kiwkete will be announced the winner of the just concluded presidential elections in Tanzania. This is one result that will dishearten many Tanzanians.

The most popular presidential candidate in Tanzania, but hey, this is Africa.

But for the rest of East Africans there are interesting lessons to be learnt here from one Jakaya Kikwete. There are similarities between Jakaya Kikwete and Mwai Kibaki apart from the fact that both held the Finance ministry portfolio when they made history as the youngest Finance ministers in their respective countries. Kibaki was finance Minister in Kenya in his 30s whilst Kikwete got the coveted docket in Tanzania at 44.

Kibaki and Kikwete are the kind of leaders that are way too eager to lead. Folks in a big hurry to be president before clearly crystallizing their policies and what they want to do with the presidential powers their lust after. You will see these kind of leaders pretty often. The kind that are just too eager to take over office, cocky and very sure that they can do a better job even before they take the time to carefully analyze the job and what the current office bearers are doing and have done. Many times they will frequently rubbish the work of their predecessors in words and actions (Kibaki did it openly, Kikwete less so).

It is said that in 1995 the late Julius Kabarage Nyerere prevailed on CCM to opt for William Mkapa as their presidential candidate rather than Kikwete to take over the presidency from then president Ali Hassan Mwinyi (who is the man who came after Nyerere.) The founding father of Tanzania was always a keen judge of human character and hardly missed anything. Dramatically during the presidential nomination process Kikwete was clearly carrying the day over Mkapa when the wise Nyerere suddenly and unexpectedly called for a break. Obviously it was not for him to enjoy a cup of tea or cold Pepsi (found only in Tanzania in the entire East African region) but clearly it was for him to do some subtle lobbying. He urged his CCM comrades to opt for Mkapa rather than Kikwete and “to give the young man some more years to mature” (Nyerere’s exact words). No doubt these were very hurting words to Kikwete then but in retrospect Tanzanians have one more critical thing to thank Mwalimu for. He saw many years ago what Tanzanians are only realizing now. Indeed although Kikwete has worked hard to position himself to the public as a keen student of Nyerere the truth is that he finally got elected over Nyerere’s long-dead body and chances are that the old wise man of Tanzania would have denied Kikwete the presidency yet again was he still alive to lobby within the CCM high command. And with good reason. Mkapa’s steadier wiser hand apparently had much more attention to detail and gave Tanzania the best 10 years that economy has ever seen. In those 10 years Tanzania changed so dramatically that they suddenly had a problem of too many Kenyans flooding the job market there where opportunities were numerous fueled by the suddenly rapidly growing economy. In retrospect it is obvious that Mkapa understood a lot of things that the arrogant JK did not take time to grasp.

As it is Kikwete will go down in history as the least popular Tanzanian president ever. A close friend based in Tanzania for many years sent me an interesting email this week that perfectly illustrates the feelings of most Tanzanians towards this president;

“Chris, people here are disenchanted with Kikwete. He's a populist and yet doesn't seem to be delivering 'Maisha bora kwa kila Mtanzania'. He talks of fighting corruption but there are many corrupt guys in his party (and government). Some, whose cases are in court, were running to be re-elected this year. Kikwete literally went to their constituencies during the campaigns and told the wananchi that those court cases and accusations were fabrications. Imagine the cheek!”

Amazingly like Kibaki, on taking over office Kikwete wanted to do too many things. In many ways the insinuation here is that your predecessor did nothing and has therefore left you with too much work to do. Basic management demands that you must prioritize and focus on a few key areas. Kikwete and Kibaki ignored this cardinal rule and woke up one morning to realize that their initial 5 year term was already over and they hardly had anything to show for it.

What Mr Kikwete must do now is use his remaining 5 years to repair some of the damage he has done to Mkapa’s good work and then focus on one critical area that he will want to be remembered for. As it is now most Tanzanians only remember him for pain. He might want to borrow a leaf from Kibaki and initiate the process for a new constitution or at the very least major changes to the laws that govern this huge sleeping giant of a nation.

KACC Effect: Can Sheriff Lumumba Make Heads Roll?

UPDATE: Kenyans have yet another reason to show their post molars in jubilation this week as embattled Truth Justice and Reconciliation chair Ambassador Bethwel Kiplagat resigned(read stepped aside) today ostensibly to avoid embarrassing his appointing authority as investigations of accusations levelled at him begin

Tanzania Election Update:read Kumekucha's latest update on the Tanzanian elections in the comments section of this post or click here

Once laughed off as a bunch of buffons on this very blog, the KACC advisory board must be rubbing their hands in glee at mother nature’s gift to them: a second chance to redeem their reputation through the appointment of a new graft boss in the shape of PLO Lumumba. This comes after the disastrous tenure of the office’s previous holder. Kenyans already know there is a new sheriff in town recently appointed head of the Kenyan dragon slaying unit(Kenya Anti Corruption Commission)

new graft watchdog fighter Professor PLO Lumumba

The similarities between Sherriff Lumumba and his predecesor rtd. Justice Aaron Ringera are numerous: both were well known Nairobi law practitioners, and both were well known public speakers notably quoting the works of famous dead men such as Shakespeare and other well known works of historical literature. However it seems that is where Sherriff Lumumba wants the similarities to end because he is determined to make it clear from the onset that his tenure will clearly be a different ball game from that of his predecessor(see video below)

The face of emerging Kenya under the new constitution
Ever since reporting for duty PLO and his newly appointed graft watchdog team have slowly been attempting to match the strength of their punches with their constitutionally mandated institutional weight as a public institution. So far it is commendable that the sherrif and his army of dragon slayers have been reeling in catch after latest catch. However majority of Kenyans remain unimpressed and have so far refused to be taken in by the Oxford dictionary English speaking Nairobi lawyer. Kenyans argue that the sheriff is simply re-inventing the wheel in giving the impression of catching government of national unity grand fraudsters. We are weary as we have seen it all before and will settle for nothing less than Heads rolling

WanaNICHI want him to do more than just raise the temperature under the collars of know crooks and wanted criminals. They want Sheriff Lumumba to make major inroads in the war against the vice. The graft boss and his team must have been the most headhunted private sector professionals. Now that they have crossed over and been appointed to public positions Kenyans need to believe that at the end of the day the new leadership o f KACC will not turn out to be a very big disappointment.

Good preaching
Corruption is deep rooted in our system but this new constitution carries all the political will to root it out. This cancer can cease to be a way of life in this country and Sherriff Lumumba may just be the non-ceremonial figurehead outside the executive arm of the Government to fight it without fear or favour

Without a shadow of a doubt the newly appointed KACC director may find that his life will be threatened several times in the months and years ahead in the course of patriotic duty but he must take heart because Kenyans are beginning to note his efforts with appreciation. Not many Kenyans can handle the heat of the seat upon which the mention of your name immediately invokes both admiration from a grateful public while striking fear among the looters and the corrupt. The Sherriff and his team must adequately be described as both loud barkers and biter in equal proportions

Kenyans are ready to give the benefit of the doubt this time if the Sheriff can prove equal to the task of fighting corruption with the full weight of the country behind him. God bless KACC and God bless Kenya