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Saturday, April 24, 2010

William Ruto Rapidly Running out of Options

William Ruto: Running scared?

FACT: William Ruto was one of the main architects of the Naivasha input into the draft constitution as a key vocal and influential member of the parliamentary select committee on the constitution.


FACT: There was no question of Ruto not being happy because one cannot fail to be happy with something they were one of the main architects to.

FACT: The Naivasha changes made by Ruto and company were virtually all incorporated into the draft constitution by the Committee of Experts (COE).

So the question Kenyans must ask is a simple one. What made Ruto change his mind about his own work at Naivasha? In other words what is Ruto’s motivation in so suddenly changing his position?

Many analysts point to the section in the draft constitution on land. They say that Ruto is wary that when fully implemented that little section could easily wipe out his ill-gotten wealth virtually overnight. But if this is true the question that begs an answer is didn’t Ruto see this when the parliamentary select committee was drafting changes in Naivasha?

And so it is unlikely that it is just the section on land that is the motivation behind Ruto’s behaviour. There is something bigger.

Clues as to what may really be happening start to emerge when you consider Ruto’s actions behind the scenes after he was recently demoted from the high profile, high finances ministry of agriculture and relegated to the virtually invisible ministry of higher education. The man seems to be in some kind of panic. The kind that would make a man use air conditioning services in Nairobi at this time of the year even when the weather is relatively cool and comfortable without any artificial help from anywhere.

The truth is that the latest move has greatly unsettled him? More than he will ever want to admit to anybody. But why? He hasn’t been dropped from the cabinet has he? The man is still flying the coveted flag.

Some information that has recently been made available to this blogger suggests that some political deals have gone sour for dear old William and the only card he had to play was to beef up the “NO” camp for the upcoming referendum on the draft constitution. The deal that went sour had been crafted with some PNU insiders and the intention was to politically cripple Prime Minister Raila Odinga. However our dear friend who considers himself one of the smartest Kenyan legislators who has ever lived (you tell me what you think of this self-analysis) forgot the first rule in politics. This game is way too fluid and there is no such thing as a permanent friend or permanent enemy. No politician on earth can afford them.

In quickly becoming the most visible personality and indeed the de facto leader of the No-vote brigade, Ruto’s strategy was to bring back the PNU stalwarts to the negotiation table. What has now unsettled Ruto the most is the fact that his recent demotion to the ministry of higher education is clear-cut and conclusive proof that his recent allies have ganged up together with his sworn enemies and have already dealt him the first body blow. It should be perfectly clear to Ruto by now that the latest move was merely a warning jab. The knock out blow is coming for sure.

Mr Ruto has been left isolated and with very limited options. Remember that this is a politician who has always thrived on playing one side against the other to his huge advantage. Many do not realize that the reason why Ruto got such massive land allocations and access to cash very early in his political career was because he convinced Kanu insiders that he was capable of penetrating the then dreaded opposition. Playing exactly the same tactics Ruto approached PNU promising them Raila’s head. Now that the ground has shifted so significantly Ruto has been left in extremely unfamiliar territory.

Politically the move to demote Ruto is smarter than most would realize. He was not dropped from the cabinet, meaning that he cannot complain nor organize those fake demonstrations claiming that his people have been targeted. Secondly it removes him from the political limelight and he is left with only the “No” campaign platform that is sounding increasingly tired and fatigued. So much so that Ruto, sensing defeat has shifted gears and is now campaigning for what appears to be a middle ground—namely a referendum that will allow voters to also vote on the contentious issues separately. This should allow him to at least claim partial victory even if the “Yes” side wins overwhelmingly which is what is going to happen by the look of things.

Still it is clear that Ruto’s political fortunes have changed very suddenly and very emphatically. In retrospect Ruto’s main strength in the past was his secret sneaky alliance with PNU and some of the president’s closest advisors. That is clearly history now.

Whatever happens the next couple of weeks should be fascinating as we watch the sneaky Kalenjin warrior wriggle in the spider’s web where he is already trapped. Granted he has gotten out of tighter corners than this before, but will he manage this time? Will he outwit Mwai “with the best political advice money can buy” Kibaki and Raila “experience” Odinga? And then Ocampo and the ICC after that?
P.S. What is wrong with Ruto? The man looks increasingly sickly and weak by the day. Is it the stress of his kind of politics or is it some incurable disease of sorts? Very confusing because the man has dramatically increased his security detail? What is he scared of? Has he been threatened by somebody? P.S. I am keenly aware that Citizen headline seekers always visit Kumekucha before deciding on their front page splash for the new week. I am watching very carefully to see what their front page story will be this coming week.


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15 comments:

Anonymous said...

And with that the so called generation change goes up in smoke! Who wants a young president who is anti-reforms? Ruto, Eugene, Uhuru and Kalonzo have all kissed the presidency goodbye. Its only a miracle that can bring them back into relevance.

Anonymous said...

Ruto agreed to this things in Naivasha only to spite r and when he got back to his senses he realized that the sungura mjanja had tricked him in to this position by proposing the opposite knowing ruto with his emotions high will take the other path which he really wanted.

Anonymous said...

Here is my hypothesis ,maybe Ruto has a clause that he secretly wants to sneak in the draft ,the other issues are just a trojan ,i believe this secret clause has alot to do with ocampo.

Phil said...

CHRIS,

About time you told your fans the truth.

Why is Ruto running out of options?

Why did Ruto betray ODM, and specifically Rift Valley during the Naivasha retreat?

Was his warmonger role in 2007 really for ODM or for something else?

I think it is impossible to slay a movement like ODM. I think that it is an exercise in futility to keep fighting something both Kibaki and Moi could not kill in their 35 years of being president.

Ruto has been (mis)used by PNU. He has been made multibillionaire several times over. But the movement that most Kenyans wants is still alive and kicking. The changes Kenyans votes for but were denied are coming.

It is a matter of time!

PS: Can Chris please dig up the posts he penned about Kalonzo, Ruto as the future of Kenya?

Anonymous said...

by the way chris, get a recent photo of ruto

Anonymous said...

Will William Ruto end up like Edgar Zivanai Tekere because of the land issue and constant rivalry within his party?

Kenya's version of 'Gerald Adams' may end up being William Ruto's achillies heel if he continues to be so stubborn because of land.

Mr. Flip Flopper Naivasha (FFN) will have dig himself out of the "NO Camp" mess that he has created for all the wrong reasnos.

Anonymous said...

Chris,

The only people who can decide whether Ruto goes down or not are only the PNU. So far his usefulness to PNU is not over and that is why he is still in govt.

To casual observers, PNU people appear politically stupid because they don't care about glory or the judgment of history like Raila and Co. But PNU people are earthly smart and do not care for anything except raw power, and they will often get their way.

For example, PNU just played Ruto and got the a favorable draft constitution (i.e., without parliamentary system, no majimbo, has proportional repsentation, has minimal funding of the counties (15% of revenue)). This proposed constitution doesn't have much of ODM aspirations and yet it Raila and ODM that is sweating chapioning it to the people.

PNU is laying back in style pandering to some "no" about negotiations for the sake of the country. Deep in their hearts they are happy it is Raila telling the Coast people to accept a PNU constitution as well as butting his head with the Kalenjins. Like a race horse, once Raila finishes this race, PNU will retire him by switching gears from him to Ruto.

Once the referendum is over, PNU will bring Ruto back to his center field position for the final match against Raila. ODM people who think that Uhuru and Kalonzo are weak, indecisive and have lost direction must think again. These two are different from Kibaki and will cut any deal between themselves just to deny Raila theultimate prize. You may have notced that since Kibaki started listening to these two, ODM has been losing evey political fight.

The day after the "yes" victory, a very fast-paced game will begin, and Ruto will be a key player.

Anonymous said...

reply to

"The day after the "yes" victory, a very fast-paced game will begin, and Ruto will be a key player."

anything is possible in kenya.
The masses need education not just kenyans but even here in the USA we have people more stupid than the kenyan population.
In short any population is too dumb to shape the future of their country.
All we do is cheer or counter-cheer the nonsense that the dumb leaders propose.Dumb jounalism like mutahi ngunyi,kwendwa with no facts but baseless opinions.biased to death.Goodluck my brothers.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Ruto will survive, blossom and thrive once the so called magic bullet or golden arrow aka KATIBA is delivered to ordinary people as if it were life saving manna from the political heavens of Kenya.

Mr. Ruto's credits are not rolling yet and they will not roll any time soon. So there is no reason to count him out for being one of the proprietors of the "NO" vote.

The man is still young and he will learn from the past and become a better national politician in 2017 or 2022.

Some of us have forgotten the simple fact that not every Kenyan citizen should vote "YES" for whatever reasons.

There Kenyans who are bound to vote "NO" due to personal or political reasons known to them, and there is nothing wrong with voting otherwise.

That's what is expected in any given democracy: there are those who will vote with the majority, others who will vote with minority, while others will remain undecided as usual.

Let's avoid trying so hard to herd everyone Kenyan into the "YES" grazing paddocks where there may not be enough political foliage as well as economic green pastures to sustain the 'voters' in the long run once the odious task of chewing regurgitated constitutional cud is no longer platable.

Anonymous said...

you first heard it on kumekucha: one william ruto is the comeback kid of kenyan cyclical politics.

a season will come when william ruto will have the last laugh at his opponent's expense
.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 4/26/10 9:00 PM

Let me laugh in advance..... ha ha ha ha, in your dreams, WR is finished, kaput, finito. We are on the threshold of an issue based society if you have not noticed YOU AINT SEEN NOTHING YET.

Issues is what is starting to drive Kenya politics forward not personal interest - Its sad he not noticed that real power is shifting slowly and surely, he still thinks the dogma from his heydays in one a party state and Y2K will still carry the day. Kenya is moving forward - it’s a new era and today there are many other voices that are also being heard.

The countdown to his last days is finally underway, it’s going to be a game of SIX LOVE and the match will end in The Hague. His isolation from government for repatriation and his defiance ala Bashir is now out for all to see. The negotiation has broken down with the head honcho in PNU and with NYUNDO . In the mean time money is coming in to resettle the poor people affected in Mau but not the BIG SHOT thieves. Soon he will be left without a platform and that’s when he will be sunk.

Its no longer about NYUNDO it’s all about negotiations for protection from the Hague and “I don’t support it, I support it but ….” Jomo junior knows it because - he is NEXT. I hope am wrong but he will need a major major transformation to come out of this one.

Kenya is bigger than one person.

Anonymous said...

Ruto is our man even if you say what.He knows what he is doing unlike you who is living like a pauper.

So what if he has lost weight?
Unakula kwake?
He did us justice in 2007.
We know you are a total failure with nothing to show.I was in school with Chris but he refused to go to campus while Ruto struggled to further his education then started making money using his brains.He has helped many guys start businesses in LD and other towns.
Leave him alone.Why do you hide/change direction when you meet former changez guys?
Bure kabisa wewe.

Anonymous said...

Kenya is larger than one person.

Oh yes! I will add to the fact by stating that Kenya is larger than the Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin, Kamba, Embu, Meru and Kisii groups that have dominated other Kenyan groups for decades.

Remember that fact whenever you open your ethnic mouth that seems to believe that it's larger than the life of other smaller ethnicities combined.

Kenya is moving in the right direction.

First of all, it's one thing for a country to move in one direction under the total domination of specific ethnicities.

While it's better if the country moves in the right direction with all Kenyan ethnicities abroad as equal partners with equal say, equal vote, and equal representation.

Btw, you are free to "laugh in advance" for all it's worth but never forget the fact that:
you who belong to the larger ethnicities can not claim for yourselves that which you are not prepared to grant others who belong to the smaller ethnicities.

LOL! Some issues that are being floated around are driven by personal and ethnic interests rather than national interests. Correct me if I am wrong.

Fyi, some people once said that Mwai Kibaki's days were over and done with when Daniel arap Moi got rid of him as his vice president.

They went on to laugh at those who thought otherwise by claiming it was only in their dreams to even think of a remote Kibaki presidency.

Guess who has been laughing since December of 2002? And they will continue to laugh until December of 2012.

Well, well, well. How long did it take Mwai Kibaki to acsend to power?

When were the conditions conduicive enough for the ordinary Kenyans to clamour for change?

How long will it take for an alternative candidate [who happens not to be Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin, Kamba, Embu, Meru and Kisii] to ascend to the president?

Ten years from 2012?

Twenty years from 2012?

Thirty years from 2012?

Well, it will happen in our dreams as long as Kenyans from all walks of life continue to have a dream, hope and the right vision for their country - Republic of Kenya.

Anonymous said...

Most of the sentiments and opinions about some specific politician almost points out to some tribal if not regional enmity towards Hon. William Ruto. Objective writing is needed to uphold kumekucha's intergrity. Ruto like any other leader has a right to think and speak what he thinks is right. He may be wrong to you but not for all of us. He was the best perfoming minister after all!!!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Most of the sentiments and opinions about some specific politician almost points out to some tribal if not regional enmity towards Hon. William Ruto. Objective writing is needed to uphold kumekucha's intergrity. Ruto like any other leader has a right to think and speak what he thinks is right. He may be wrong to you but not for all of us. He was the best perfoming minister after all!

Yes Agriculture was no. 1 but it would put principals to shame.Willie is a shrewd politician unlike you who has no education and no future.
Kazi ianze Willie - wataandika watachoka.R.Valley will protect our son.Wewe andika propaganda as we enjoy.
Huwezi kula propaganda.useless kabisa.

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