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Monday, July 26, 2010

No camp in crisis

New Kumekucha survey shows 85% victory for YES

The press have in recent days referred to President Kibaki as “the unusually active President Kibaki” when pointing out the numerous meetings the president is holding countrywide to drum up support for the proposed constitution. With his "twin brother" Raila incapacitated and recovering from surgery it seems that Kibaki has taken full charge of the YES team with surprisingly devastating results.

The writing is clearly on the wall. The NO brigade is desperately retreating but can hardly find any cover even as the YES side moves in for the kill.
Martha Karua (Yes) and William Ruto (No): Kenyans will need to ask themselves a simple question. The current draft was mainly the result of a compromise between Karua and Ruto at the Naivasha retreat. Why then did Ruto suddenly turn round and oppose the very compromise document that has his thumbprints all over?

Interestingly the only tiny pockets of resistance standing in the way of an absolute YES whitewash on August 4th look like they can be swayed at the very last minute. Top on the list is Meru. NO crusaders have always been warmly received in the area and it looked like a NO stronghold. But now that the president is so actively campaigning and expected in the area soon, things look a lot different. For starters Meru has always consistently voted Kibaki even when it has not been in their best interests to do so. Meaning that a simple plea from the president could turn the tide completely in favour of the YES side.

The other area that has received frequent NO visits is Ukambani where local MPs have cleverly positioned the proposed constitution as a Kibaki document that must be defeated to frustrate the president further. That worked pretty well at the beginning until it dawned on the Kamba people that they cannot stick with a constitution under which thye have been regular beggars for food handouts despite the fact that they usually work so hard on their shambas. That coupled with door to door campaigns by the women leaders in the region including Charity Ngilu and Kathiani legislator Wavinya Ndeti has dramatically changed the situation in two short weeks.

Even William Ruto’s own Kalenjin backyard looks extremely shaky just now.

Actually what has happened is that it has dawned on Kenyans all over the country (thanks to some very positive press in favour of YES) that voting NO would be a victory for impunity. Whatever the so-called contentious issues are the new constitution is a lot better for Kenyans now than the current document. A document which former legislator Joseph Kamotho describes so aptly when he says; This is not a constitution, it is just a guideline.” Guideline for impunity if you ask me.

And so I take this opportunity to announce that my last survey on the proposed constitution across the entire country has forced me to adjust my prediction for the outcome of the referendum from a 75% victory for YES to an 85% landslide victory. In other words 85% of those who vote on August 4th will vote YES.

Those who own Kenya have already sensed defeat and are fully aware of the sweeping changes that will blow across the country with the passing of the new constitution. There is massive panic selling of land countrywide and prices are coming down dramatically. And as stated in my earlier post, the options for the evil NO brigade who organized the Uhuru Park bombings are extremely few (I dare say non-existent).

I look forward to the new Kenya. To all those dear Kenyans who died and suffered (including yours truly who suffered under Moi’s secret police); It was not all in vain after all.

Where would you put a million?

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The company runs your matatu for you and guarantees monthly revenue of Kshs 41,210. This lands in your account without you having to deal with the daily headaches of police crackdowns, drivers or touts failing to turn up for work etc.

According to the management of the company they usually advice their clients to sell off their vehicles after two and half years by which time the initial capital investment has long been paid off and profits have trickled in. Selling off the vehicles hikes the total profits from the enterprise even higher.

Many Kenyans in the diaspora seeking ways to invest effectively and efficiently back home have found this to be the perfect solution for smaller amounts of cash.

Get more information from the Global fleet management solutions site.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ati katiba was positioned in ukambani as a kibaki document?!!!! You need to take your readers more seriously.

M. Pesa said...

I hope your research is correct because I will be among the 85% who will wake up very early on 4th to go and vote YES. Surely I can't imagine myself agreeing with dictator Moi and his YK92 projects of Ruto and Jirongo. These three musketeers have a long, controversial and checkered history too grim to mention here.

I can't wait to see their faces on the 5th of August after we have voted YES. I have no grudge against those decent but misguided Kenyans, about 10 percent, who believe the draft is bad enough to be shot down.

But these Kenyans- and why lie they are mostly Kaleos- must also be prepared to live with guilt for the rest of their lives for trying to abort something so precious and for being on the wrong side of history!

Anonymous said...

Were you writing about the proposed constitution or were you hawking your new fleet management solution?And who in their right minds wants to invest in a matatu anyway?

Wa Kioi said...

I am voting NO!

...And I going to live with No regrets, No Shame and No guilt!

That's democracy my friends.

Anonymous said...

In ukambani and meru they had been told that voting YES means voting for raila. That's the reason for the initial hostility.

Ngilu has been campaigning in ukamabani for YES without much impact. The turning to YES happened after they heard from kalonzo. We talk here so much but ultimately votes in kenya are controlled by kibaki, raila, kalonzo, ruto, uhuru, mudavadi, nyachae, kiraitu and a few others. That is the reality.

Anonymous said...

It seems Raila was spoiling the YES fortunes and his incapacitation was a blessing in disguise.

Maybe he should just take a break from active politics. His militant style of politics is making many voters detest the Katiba. I say keep the fellow away and Kibaki will deliver for you the 85%.

Economists are smart calculating people. Kibaki is a smart president.

Anonymous said...

Unlike MOI and the ailing PM Raila, H.E. Kibaki is a leader who believes in less press coverage and more work.
The results have shown why that stratergy is adopted by leaders in developed countries with an exception of US. The economy during H.E Kibaki's reign has never registered a negative growth, Kenya is enjoying universal education, there is massive job creation, the infrastructure is amongst the best in Africa and there is press freedom like never experienced before.
The new katiba if passed will make Kibaki the best president of Kenya and his legacy will be entrenched in the school syllabus.
All these years, Kibaki has never agreed to have his face on the Kenyan shilling, has never agreed to have a school, hospital, airport or public holiday named after him.
A humble servant of the people. Quite a contrast to Moi who was everything No.1 or Raila who since becoming a PM has struggled, cheated and bribed his way into the news.
He is now however ailing and we wish him all the best.

Anonymous said...

So we should not talk about kalenjins as if we are better than them. They are just following their leaders, same as us. We are in YES because our leaders are in YES. Of course a few educated types here and there may not follow the "leader", but the general rule is true.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if Raila was for NO campaign would these zealous jaluos be for the YES??
Lets be honest!

Phil's Mistress

Anonymous said...

To correct you, Meru isn’t predominantly NO. The opinion is sharply divided but slowly tilting in favour of YES. Also note, Mr. Kibaki had a successful campaign in Meru on 17th July.

The main issue causing discomfort is the Meru county, which is perceived to be too large (almost 2m people). As expected Ruto and co. have somehow managed to convince people that they will be disadvantaged in terms of resource allocation. Also, The sub-tribe known as Tigania is not keen to belong in the larger Meru county and have given petty reason for this; that they fear being dominated by Imenti sub-tribe who happen to be the majority ( also control Meru town). One Mithika Linturi has been spinning this lie.

The catholic church has also managed to intimidate quite a number of the rural and illiterate folks. The last time I checked, the policy was ‘YOU VOTE YES, NO SACRAMENT FOR YOU’

That’s the position; from the horse’s mouth.

M. Pesa said...

watch all the lies being told by ruto and others in the no camp in these highly affective ads.

http://www.youtube.com/user/TheGreencaravan

Maishinski said...

I shall vote YES because I want a new Kenya.

Although YES shall win, I shall respect those who voted NO because it is their democratic right and they are our brothers and sisters.

Katiba ni yetu sote. The train of Second Liberation has left the station and no one can stop it.

YES!

Mwarang'ethe said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mwarang'ethe said...

M. Pesa said...
watch all the lies being told by ruto and others in the no camp in these highly affective ads.

xxx

Firstly, we do not worry about arbotion so much and our rejection of this draft has nothing whatsoever to do with this issue. Having said that, we do not support arbotion, but, we would prefer women and their boyfriends/husbands make that choice and live with it.

Having noted this, let us now look at Article 26 which is entitled: Right to life.

It provides this:

(4) Arbotion is not permitted unless, in the opinion of a trained health professional, there is need for emergency treatment, or the life or health of the mother is in danger, or if permitted by any other written law.

Now, the way to read and understand this clause is this way:

Abortion is not permitted unless IF PERMITTED by ANY other WRITTEN LAW.

Also, the meaning of health is both physical and mental health. Thus, can a woman who is depressed cos she did want a child be said to suffer from mental health which may necessitate the need for arbotion? So many issues Kenyans in their usual CASUALNESS have not thought about.

Leaving the meaning of health aside, if you argue that, life starts at conception (s. 26 (2) and is therefore, protected by s. 26 (1), one will argue that, one may be deprived life "to the extent authorised by ... OTHER WRITTEN LAW." This is in accordance with s.26 (3).

That being the case, this new constitution does allow arbotion if any written law shall be passed in the future allowing the same. In other words, any future written law allowing arbotion shall be within the 4 walls of this constitution.

Having said so, check Article 2 (6) of this new constitution which provides this:

Any treaty or convention ratified by Kenya shall form part of the law of Kenya under this Constitution.

Now, a treaty must be in writing. Since we have not provided how a treaty shall become domestic law, all that is required as it seems to us, to allow arbotion is just for a minister to ratify a treaty.

Thus, to allow arbotion under this constitution requires only a 1st year law student to read it.

However, since we live in the age of literate illiterate, we argue that the church and Ruto are mad. They are not. They are very sober to the issues.

Anyway, let us shout at the Church and Ruto as move like wildbeasts at Mara River. Let us not focus on the constitution and what it says and focus on Ruto and Moi. After all, they are the devil.

Anonymous said...

mwarengethe: i have been following ur articles on land quite faithfully. have learnt a lot from you about wealth creation. for that, i must convey my gratitude. on abortion, i must say i doubted whether it is the same brilliant mind i have been listening to. keep it where u belong. nothing wrong with the clause. take care

Anonymous said...

I thought Mwaragethe is sufficiently literate to know that it is pointless to waste time on an non-constitution issue like abortion. In my opinion, those who want to abort will do so regardless of the wording we place in that doc.

I hope you have not been forced to become irrelevant by some silly comments. We need your knowledgeable arguements on important issues like governance, land and public finance.

Anonymous said...

Mwarang'ethe,
Remember me with the advice that smart people know when to ooze wisdom in silence? You don't have to talk always. Please respect your brilliance and stop the e-fame from going into your head. Stick to land and wealth-you hammer and nail and avoid all else, will you?

Mwarang'ethe said...

Anonymous wrote

on abortion, i must say i doubted whether it is the same brilliant mind i have been listening to. keep it where u belong. nothing wrong with the clause. take care

xxx

Motivate your answers/comments. Do not bark/shout and run away.

Meanwhile, you can watch the YES guys OPENLY LYING here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/TheGreencaravan#p/a/u/2/JV8No2vpQRw

You will notice that, they the last part of s.26 (4). Why? Why? Because that is where the catch is, but, they dare not say it.

xxx

I thought Mwaragethe is sufficiently literate to know that it is pointless to waste time on an non-constitution issue like abortion. In my opinion, those who want to abort will do so regardless of the wording we place in that doc.

xxx

What is the difference btw. what you have written and this?

"Firstly, we do not worry about arbotion so much and our rejection of this draft has nothing whatsoever to do with this issue. Having said that, we do not support arbotion, but, we would prefer women and their boyfriends/husbands make that choice and live with it."

Mwarang'ethe said...

Anonymous said...
Mwarang'ethe,
Remember me with the advice that smart people know when to ooze wisdom in silence? You don't have to talk always. Please respect your brilliance and stop the e-fame from going into your head. Stick to land and wealth-you hammer and nail and avoid all else, will you?


xxx

Why not practice what you preach?

Anonymous said...

Homosexuality will be made legal under new constitution. Meaning gays will have the right to marry and so forth....
And this is why I am saying a resounding NO!

Echoing NO....))))))))))))))))))))!

Anonymous said...

I wonder what the implication of a massive YES win will be on church authority. I have always had the impression that africans think people wearing silly costumes and a collar are somehow special. Church leaders have said god is not for the draft. The population listens to church leaders as to what god wants. Could it be the population is becoming less superstitious?

Taabu said...

Chris,
Your observation may be right and Kenyans are dying to usher in a new beginning. But there ends the story. Once bitten .......

The optmist would wish the good intent continues but the pessimist will remind you of history. The referendum campaigns may take a NASTY turn on Aug 5th after YES WIN you won't believe it.

But not to rain on people's party, let let the best side win and while at it winner must RESPECT loosers for that is democracy.

Anonymous said...

Raising the bar: Can you imagine if Kibaki's present zeal started in 2003 after the Uhuru Park swearing in? We would be miles away and 2007 would have never occurred.

If only we walked the talk that Kenya is bigger than each one of us and our tribes. Well tungoje after 8/4 and see if the tribal worms crawl back from the political woodwork.

Anonymous said...

The constitution is supposed to be a tool to be used to govern. It's a worldly document. People who are so pissed at the wording of it to the effect that it will lead to homosexuality should know that based on religion homosexuality is forbiden but this document is not a religious document. Infact it's a document reached at by way of compromise. The constitution should capture and protect the rights of any person, religious or non-religious so long as it does not step on the toes of others. Leave things like abortion/homosexuality be but word this document in such a way that protects the rights of all, born or unborn/ faggots or straight.

Anonymous said...

The other area that has received frequent NO visits is Ukambani where local MPs have cleverly positioned the proposed constitution as a RAILA document that must be defeated to frustrate the PM further.
**************************************

I think you got the names mixed up the wakamba have not forgotten the booing Kalonzo got during the launch of the YES campaigns in uhuru park, they were not going to support the draft if it appeared to promoting raila, the same was happening in in central and Meru not until raila faded from the scene did the yes campaigns pick up in those regions.

Lets be honest raila was the biggest impediment to the yes vote in central and eastern regions

Anonymous said...

The obsession with Raila is so jana it stopped being primitive. Diaspora reading Raila everywhere are stuck in their village rhymes, wake up. Katiba is bigger than all of us put togther. Vote yes/no and respect the looser, will you?

Anonymous said...

Raila has secretly been readmitted at Karen hospital. To throw off the press, he chartered a light plane from Wilson airport, flew away before landing back and driving away to Karen hospital.

More details of this as this intriguing news develop. We wish him quick recovery.

Anonymous said...

Kenyan Catholic priests and their so called "native" Bishops couldn't dare to stand up and be counted as defenders of the real truth, and their support for the proposed KATIBA.

They couldn't even muster the rare courage to speak up for the truth, let alone express their personal views about the KATIBA, and on behalf of the Kenyan Catholics and other Christians they claim to serve in the name of God, "Mother Church", TRUTH and JUSTICE.

Fr. Gabriel Dolan is the only priest on Kenyan soil who had the courage to support the KATIBA as well as go on record by disecting the real facts about the Kadhis'Courts and the issues of abortion in the proposed KATIBA.

So many of his fellow clergy men have been so adamantly opposed to the proposed KATIBA are busy peddling fear, lies and rumours about the KATIBA instead of educating the people so that they can make informed decisions when they go to vote for or against proposed KATIBA.

The Church has lost a golden opportunity to enlighten its followers about proposed KATIBA, instead of issuing ongoing threats aimed at those within their own rank and file with excommunication if they dare vote for the KATIBA.

Check his educated views on youtube with regard to i) Kadhis'Cout. ii) Abortion.

Anonymous said...

anon 8:00 pm,

Raila was flown out of the coutry secretly for specialized treatment.
All doesnt look good.

Anonymous said...

Not my favorite guy, but i sure want him out of the woods and bouncing around. So boring these days. Cant verbally attack the man. Damn. Get well soon, PM.

Anonymous said...

Anon 6:37 AM

i. I wonder what the implication of a massive YES win will be on church authority.

The YES win will not interfere with the Church authority absolutely. The Church does not derive it's authority from numbers of the population but from God. The referendum is not a contest of (authority) but a way to guage if Kenyans want a new constitution in a majority win system of democracy practiced in Kenya. 4th August is not a judgement day for the Church, but a day set by IIEC to legally confirm % acceptance or rejection of the constitution.

ii. I have always had the impression that africans think people wearing silly costumes and a collar are somehow special.

A confession of low self-esteem and inferiority complex on you for your thinking on your colour, race
and people. African people have always thought of their God as special irrespective of what 1st line messengers wear.

iii. Church leaders have said god is not for the draft.

Good. It is Church leaders who have said. What has God said?

iv. The population listens to church leaders as to what god wants.

Wrong. The population does not always listen to Church leaders as to what God wants. Otherwise the population would be practising AMRI KUMI ZA MUNGU to the letter.

v. Could it be the population is becoming less superstitious?

Good question.

Anonymous said...

Anon 5.28am

Church leaders made it a contest between the church and the state right at the outset. Karanja was very confident that they would win becuase they had the flock under lock and key. Just admit it: you will be very embarrased when the results come in. It means the people who have been eating every thing from your hand are beginning to rebel. It started that way in europe. Today few europeans can take a preacherman seriously. We need our own Enlightenment, and the first shot is about to be fired.

Anonymous said...

Guess what? History does repeat itself.

The strategy of the high profile leaders in the NO camp has been very consistent with that of the Confederate Generals during the American Civil Wars 1861-1865.

Furthermore, most of the Kenyan religious leaders are in for a real shock after August 4th, "the day of mental emancipation and physical liberation" from churches, religious institutions and outdated religious ideologies that have been put in place to curtail the nation's struggle to move forward as well as the people's desire for progress in the light of change for a better future.

Unfortunately, many of the church leaders and their diehard followers have literally and figuratively "aborted themselves" from the historic process that many other Kenyans are engaged in.

Their actions have spoken louder than words since the constitution process was started. Some of the religious leaders have had nothing positive nor constructive to say or offer with regard to the constitution process apart from their familiar trademark of fear mongering, misinformation and propagation of false allegations and manufatured lies.

No wonder the loudest voices, relentless agitators and ide hard campaigners against the proposed constitution are the very same religious leaders who went dead silent during and after PEV.

How I wish some of them had concetrated their efforts and same velocity against the presence of IDPs, corruption, negative ethnicty, bad governance, insecurity, unemployment, lack of basic foods and adequate shelter, foreigh economic exploitation, and abject poverty that continues to bedevil the republic of Kenya.

Anonymous said...

The No Camp is in real Crisis, so is the Church leadership at large.

i) The church does not derive its authority from numbers of the population but from [G]od.

Who was it that once said Vox populi, vox dei?

The religious leaders can continue to call the general population, notorious or close to madness, but whichever way, the vote of the people is going to drastically change the course of Kenya's history as well as general political landscape for a very very long time.

ii When does the Church speak on behalf of:
a)[G]od.

b)the calculating, manipulative, political, tribal, intolerant, arrogant, rude, oppressive, pharisaic and narcisstic clergy.

c)unsuspecting people of the land.

d)profit, greed and altar business as usual.

The contest between the Will of God vs the Will of the High Priests will have devastating effects in the corridors of religious institutions as well as within the political culture and in the minds of Kenyan people.

When all is said and done, the echoes of the August 4th referendum results, are going to have a tremendous Galileo effect ("...told you so") for decades to come.

FYI, the clergy in Rwanda have learned to embrace humility, respect, tolerance, a sense of eternal shame and an open but deep cultivation of all things spiritual.

Anonymous said...

The temple, the church, the mosque and any other religious shrine are all built by man and declared by man to be houses of god. No god has ever told man to do anything. King david was pushed by bathesheba to declare solomon his successor. He did and declared it to be the will of god. It was the will of bathesheba. But ignorant perople over the centuries have believed solomon was made king by god. Even Bush II declared his invasion of iraq to be the will of god. In reality it was the will of corporate america. It is amazing that in 2010 hundreds of millions of people still take religion seriously.

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