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Thursday, March 25, 2010

Our MPs Playing Old Music to Bored Gallery

I burst out laughing in the wee hours of this morning (Kenyan time) over a very interesting news item.

Have you ever heard of the Bay of Bengal? Well there is a tiny rock island there called New Moore Island (kind of reminds me of of Migingo Island). India and Bangladesh have been fighting over the island for almost 30 years with no solution in site. Now suddenly the island has disappeared. Yep, vanished into thin air. The island has actually been swallowed by the sea. The water provoked by Global warming has just gradually risen and swallowed up the island.
Hon Najib Balala: Playing to the gallery.

In fact the associated press has quoted one scientist who put it very well. The man said: What these two countries could not achieve from years of talking, has been resolved by global warming. You can read the full article HERE.

My message to our parliamentarians still playing games with the new constitution is simple. Just continue with your side shows and very soon you may find that what you are fighting over has disappeared.

I have completely ignored what the MPs have been saying in the house. The whole lot of jokers are just playing to the gallery. So that when they finally get home at the end of the day, a youngster can say to them: “Daddy I saw you on TV, you gave a very nice speech in parliament.”

The real debate over the constitution is going on in secret meetings popping up all over the place. So serious is this phenomena that one may be forgiven for thinking that they will soon overshadow and swallow the real parliamentary proceedings. Even the final vote will be decided in secret meetings at this rate.

Let us look at the various factions.

There is the the Mombasa one, which incidentally has got no clear leader. Because Najib Balala has been shoved aside as de facto leader he is now busy “calling for an end to these secret meetings” and ensuring that the press is capturing his sentiments. Nice touch after the long-winded speech he gave again for the benefit of the cameras in parliament yesterday (I wonder who wrote it for him). Can you imagine parliamentarians are spending cash now on the wording of their contributions in parliament? Maybe this idea of cameras in the house was not such a good one after all.

Anyway, our Mombasa guys just want to ensure that a substantial fraction of the billions that Mombasa earns for the country from tourism and the port, remains at the Coast and somehow benefits Coastal folks. I don’t blame them. Except that their secret meetings worry me. Why not meet in the open like the women faction are?

Then we have the women faction representing the long-suffering women of Kenya. Taking expert legal advice they want to ensure that women are not short-changed once again. No harm in that. My heart goes out to them.

But then we come to the really nasty chaps. There are actually 3 factions. There is the Kibaki faction that usually meets the president or his representative, not to discuss but to receive instructions on the next move. Then there is the Raila faction which usually meets to discuss but at the end Raila instructs. Then there is the Ruto/Uhuru faction which I will call the Ocampo faction for obvious reasons. They usually meet to strategize and decide what to do mainly to frustrate the Raila camp. This has led some to believe that this faction is taking instructions from the Kibaki faction or at the very least is sympathetic to it.

But all the trouble stems from the Kibaki faction. The main worry of this faction is the president losing control. The argument for a two-tier government (national and counties) because it is “cheaper” than a three tier system is just a smoke screen. Their main issue is having a senate that can impeach the president. Taking legal advice this group of conservatives has found a way to keep a powerful president in the draft constitution who will protect their interests after Kibaki is gone. That means covering up their tracks as well. This legal advice has told them, quite rightly that the Senate could easily “deal with a president” and thus frustrate their plans. What really terrifies them is that despite their fight for more counties, it is clear that the most influential regions in the Senate will be the Rift Valley and Western Kenya, by sheer numbers. These are the guys who have thrown a spanner in the works when it looked like we were home and dry for a new constitution. The Daily Nation reported that the march to a new constitution is unstoppable and that parliament cannot stop it. However the Kibaki faction may stall the process indefinitely simply by ensuring that parliament keeps sending back the draft to the COE. The same parliament has the power to pass another law canceling or amending the act that is currently driving the process, or so the Kibaki faction believes.

The Raila faction wants a smooth transition to the new constitution with no major decisison being made without Raila’s nod. And all loopholes sealed for Raila to win the next general elections without any fiddling with votes. But there are other priorities that have suddenly taken centre stage. Like dealing with William Ruto and teaching him the political lesson of his life. As to whether they will be able to achieve this, we just have to wait and see. I think events will overtake things and Ruto will soon be on his way to Europe for an indefinite stay, although the Kibaki faction has assured him it will not happen.

Keep fighting folks, the ship called Kenya is already creaking and almost bursting at the seams over years of impunity and injustice. It will only take a very small spark and this thing will fall apart into the sea and what the kingpins have been fighting for will no longer exist. Just like that island in the Bay of Bengal. Very sad.

Meanwhile Kenyans are busy shouting themselves hoarse telling the MPs to leave the draft alone because it reflects the wishes of the Kenyan people. Methinks it is like shouting at a hungry lion feeding on a juicy antelope to leave the meat for a hungrier leopard.

P.S. I have not agreed with Phil for a very long time. But I can’t help but agree with him when he says that it is always ODM compromising and giving ground to PNU over the draft constitution. The PNU strategy thus far has always been to create “small fires” and then pretend to compromise over them in exchange for gaining advantage over a major issue they wanted to push forward. I don’t like people who think they are too smart.

A laptop for Kshs 3,500? See Kumekucha classifieds today


Anonymous said...

Chris, you messed it all up by adding Phil to the mix.
Phil is a Raila fanatic who has been following the 65 year old octogenarian leader like a dog follows a she dog on heat. Phil is not only worn out by waiting but the guy has literally gone bonkers. He eats, drinks and sleeps Raila.
Sadly, Raila like Moses will not see the promised land aka presidency.
Life has a cruel way of dealing with some people. The writings are on the war. Raila has just shed too much blood, caused Kenya too much pain and created way too many enemies in his poor attempts to ascending to presidency.
By 2012, he will be 67 and senile. Hopefully, Phil will have found a better job to do than fight for his old paper prince in Kumekucha,, Jukwaa, and other Kenyan forums.


Mwarang'ethe said...

Then we have the women faction representing the long-suffering women of Kenya. Taking expert legal advice they want to ensure that women are not short-changed once again. No harm in that. My heart goes out to them.


To the women folk of Kenya:

Constitutions are about two things:

(a) Securing the right to property.
(b) Secuering the Security of persons.

We dare warn thee that, your fights over "affirmative action," or so called special seats is a wildly misplaced fight. It will add nothing to the women of Kenya.

You have failed to realise that, the most effective tool of fooling mankind has been fostering through religion the idea of inferiority of women while elevating man's to the position of a God which is a relic of worship of males in Paganism.

The pagan priests knew that the strongest force connected with human nature is maternal affection. They therefore, made it their business to subject the woman to ignorance.

By deemeaning the position of the woman, she is robbed of her equal rights and as a parent, she is put in an inferior position.

The aristocrcats knowing that through children, women have influence over the whole humanity have endeavoured to keep the whole humanity ignorant, by keeping modern women ignorant of their children's birthright.

In this ignorance, women bring forth their children. Consequently, their children must get the permission of the land lord to live in the land of their birth.

With their children having been denied their birthright at birth, they become victims of humiliation and extortion from the cradle to the grave.

Having been denied knowledge of her natural rights to land, she is unable to teach her children the truth.

The end result has been nothing but, universal ignorance, slavery and the suffering of mankind.

Instead of feminism tackling such basic right of women's birthright to land, it tells them to join men in the industrial slavery.

Unseen by the feminists, the stampede to the industrial feudal factories, has only driven wages low and thereby, requiring men and women to spend all their time trying to survive instead of nurturing their children.

Thus, if women could just understand what we are saying about land reforms, we would have reaffirmed the right to land and therefore, their labour/property for women who bring forth children to this world, which they have been denied for centuries.

No other reforms will give women EQUAL rights to their labour/property because they labour so much, but, get so little than the one we have proposed.

And, when women get full right to their property, we shall all be free for security of person would be possible.

Thus, for women to get their FULL rights as human beings, they must understand this struggle and own it. In other words, as long as mothers are ignorant of how their labour is robbed, they will never be able to teach their kids the truth.

In other words, the fight for more seats here and there, is a diversion from the real issue. Of course, men are happy with such delusions.

Phil said...


before I respond to your post, let me say that I will not engage in senseless tirade with the anonym-ass commenting at 1.40AM. This is a constitutional moment and we must seize it wholeheartedly.

Chris, you must lead a campaign amongst you vote-less diaspora readers to come and register as voters. We need their participation now that we have allowed them dual citizenship.

The constitution was never about Raila. It was about the future of the entire country.

A few months ago, we were amazed when none other than Balala, then attending a fundraiser for Mau evictees, bellowed that those who were at Panafric Hotel were the future and that if you were not seated at that table with Zakayo Cheruiyot, there was not chance in hell you could be considered part of the future in Kenya. Can you believe that? Zakayo Cheruiyot of all living souls!

Balala, along with Isaac & William Ruto, openly conspired with PNU - KKK wing to defeat the perfect CoE hybrid draft which was an acceptable middle ground constitution for our fragile national unity. That initial harmonized draft had eight (yes eight) very well structured regions and 3-tier devolution.

But because fighting Raila took precedence over creating a constitution for posterity, the partisan PSC, then firmly controlled by the KKK alliance, decided to give us a pure presidential system as well as a 2-tier devolution.

When they went back to their regions, Rutos (Rift Valley) and Balala (Coast) received the severest backlash from their own people who were unhappy at the betrayal.

Without any shame, now we see the same Rutos and Balala pleading with parliament to amend the PSC draft that they presented as perfect just two months ago. Not only did the PSC Naivasha retreat make a mockery of the work of the unbiased CoE, it betrayed the dreams of millions of Kenyans and as well as wasted hundreds of millions in tax payer money. Do these akina Ruto think the rest of Kenyans are idiots?

They are not even sleeping for the last one week, holding night meetings, dishing out wads of cash to MPs everywhere! Even the recent Kabete KIA retreat has ended with no solution to the stalemate. Listeners of Baraka FM and KASS FM continue to lament on the betrayal by these ODM rebels who sacrificed the perfect constitution under the guise of fighting the Prime Minister.

The big problem is that the law requires 65% of parliament to amend this draft. Can the KKK alliance raise these numbers - and raise them before Thursday next week? Highly unlikely because most MPs have already unmasked the treachery that is the Ruto/uhuru alliance. It is all about bargaining power.

Why do they want to create counties for every other tribe and clan? What is the rationale? Are these counties that akina Machage and Kapondi demanding economically and politically viable?

I repeat, the constitution is not being created for Raila Odinga. Yes he is a front runner to succeed Kibaki. YES, we are all looking forward to his inauguration which was rudely and violently postponed in 2007. But this constitution has got nothing to do with all that!!!!

Let Ruto (Isaac and William) and Balala carry their own crosses. Let them not come back to ODM to plead for a hearing when they were in the frontline sabotaging the ODM after filling their stomachs with stolen SGR maize.

Whichever way you look at it, only an assassination will stop Raila Odinga taking over the reigns of this country. Let this constitution pass as it is.

Alternatively, let us see you raise 145 members to amend what you want!

Anonymous said...

Spot on but one correction. RAO was not assasinated in 2007 and the same my be repeated in 2012. You cannot be sure with Kenya's owners.

Phil said...

Blogger Chris said......
The Raila faction wants a smooth transition to the new constitution with no major decisison being made without Raila’s nod. And all loopholes sealed for Raila to win the next general elections without any fiddling with votes. But there are other priorities that have suddenly taken centre stage. Like dealing with William Ruto and teaching him the political lesson of his life. As to whether they will be able to achieve this, we just have to wait and see. I think events will overtake things and Ruto will soon be on his way to Europe for an indefinite stay, although the Kibaki faction has assured him it will not happen.

Chris, I think its better you avoid commenting on issues you do not understand, instead of displaying ignorance.

The transition clause is actually a provision of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act in 2008, which was passed by parliament itself before being swiftly accented to by Kibaki within parliament! So what has changed????

Unlike PNU which has never had a Parliamentary group or an NEC meeting since the harmonised draft was released, the ODM has had several NEC and PG meetings and all decisions pertaining to the constitution have not been 'Raila's nod' as you call them, but NEC decisions! This is democracy.

Not forgetting, ODM-K, NARC-K, DP or even PDM have all never formally met to endorse decisions you see being propagated by some of their leaders and MPs.

The ODM is not mesmerized by the impending decision of the ICC Pre-trial judges to authorise investigation into the PEV. Whether or not William Ruto or Uhuru Kenyatta is named in the Waki/Ocampos envelope; and whether or not William Ruto or Uhuru Kenyatta is indicted by the ICC, I want to put it to you that the ODM party will not stop or pause in its quest to make this country better for all. The PDM/KKK are side shows in so far as ODM is concerned. We have more important priorities like implementing our manifesto and AGENDA4.

Perhaps what you should question is why some individuals continue earn salaries and benefits as members of parliament and they no longer serve the interests of the political parties or the voters that took them to parliament. Can you really say Kalonzo is serving the interests of ODM-K or Kambas? Or is Ruto really serving the interests of ODM or people of Rift Valley? What about Balala?

Chris, do not publish unverified information here. Otherwise you risk sounding more and more like non-starters and irrelevant MPs wannabes Jimmy Kibaki and Tony Gacoka. Bure kabisa, upuuzi mtupu.

Anonymous said...


..diaspora readers to come and register as voters. We need their participation now that we have allowed them dual citizenship...

You have allowed them? ALLOWED? Kenyans abroad and home fought tooth and nail for this!

Can you believe that? Zakayo Cheruiyot of all living souls!

Show me any clean politician around. Why haven't you kicked out those corrupt ministers from ODM from your party? Why does Oburu Odinga have a corruption case for land grabbing in the high court?

Anonymous said...


You are a typical christian twisting history. The european pagan religions before christianity held the woman very high. That's why there were goddeses, in addition to gods. The woman's ability to bring forth life was regarded as a mystery and was revered. It was the fear of this power of the woman that made christianity and Islam decree in their holy books that the woman was nothing. In the bible she is responsible for original sin(read paul's letters to timothy and ephesians). jesus is supposed to have set a good example by not being defiled by woman through sex. The true christian church, the roman catholic church, led by men priests follows this example set by the "saviour" himself. In fact the whole idea that sex is somehow a sin is a major attack on women. In kenya women are the most faithful adherents of christianity. Women in europe only achieved equality after realizing this irony of following a religion that says you are inferior. A society dominated by religion the way kenya is today is of course in a dark age. We have to have our own Enlightenment. Then women will achieve equality.

Anonymous said...

I picked up the points as raised by Phil though he was emotional about it.

But just a little word to wakina Rutos/Balalas of the day. That mutilating the draft in the name of fighting Raila is selling the souls of the Kenyans.

The constitution is not about Raila. It is not about seeing him finished or not. It is about putting in structures and policies in the best possible way that will cut across serving the entire country not only for now but also for generations to income including Ruto's and Balala's children, grand children and great grand children.

Find out from Somalia where the children of the Rutos and Balala's of Somalia are. When Kenya burns down, no one will be spared.

As for the fool on Anon 3/25/10 1:40 AM, be creative. Nimesema was what I used for signing off. But I changed to Blogger. You may now write as a Blogger since judging from the contents of your writings, your head is full but of trash.


Anonymous said...

anon 3/25/10 4:49AM

You've got it all wrong on the issue of women and religion. Only one religion oppresses women and it is obvious to all.

As for the bible that you quote, you have totally displayed your ignorance on it. All through the Bible, women gave sound directions that made sense, irrespective of whether they were married, single, prostitutes or widows. Most decisions made by women were sound.


Anonymous said...

Hey all u who brag about Kenya;

Kenya is listed as top 10 "high risk country" to travel to by US state department.

Anonymous said...


Thank you for your insightful and yet balanced view of what the various political players are really up to.

This has always been the great strength of Kumekucha--geting the story behind the headlines(which always quote politicians.)

I am writing this comment so that you realize this trisum Chris. Wake up and know your real strength and make sure that you stop your dissapearing acts and give us a lot of the behind-the-scenes sagas which is what has made you and your blog famous.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

When a christian uses the word "ignorance", it is a clear case of projecting or fantasising. Most christians only read the bible verses their priests order them to read. If you actually refer them to the problematic verses (1st Timothy on women) you are given lengthy and meaningless rationalisations. Most african christians are not aware christianity was only "civilised" by the Enlightenment in europe and it came to us when it had been "softened". Otherwise it was just as bad if not worse than Islam. But even after the "softening" the problematic verses still remain in the collection of (66, 73 or 78?) books called the bible.

Anonymous said...

Najib Balala dressed in a tie, shirt, suit, engraved cufflinks and footwear from one of the top shoe designers in Italy. His grandfather and great-granddmother must be turning round and round in their final resting place.

They say, one has to be all things to all people as long as they don't destroy themselves in the process. When upcountry dress like one of them "bwana kubwa" and when in Mombao, just dress in a modest manner. At the end of the day, it's a person's honesty, sincerity, genuineness and other honourable deeds that makes him or her stand out and above the rest of the crowing politicians and restless public.

Mmmmm! I wonder where will 75% of the current Kenyan MPs be by 2012 or worse 2017?

And what are they really fighting for? Are they fighting for the nation's common interests, their constituents, the common man and woman, special interest groups, or are they fighting so hard in order to fill their own half-empty pockets before the next big election?

Anonymous said...

Balala is the best bet for ODM in the coast. He has made some bad decisions which were based on Raila sidelining him for Joho.

Raila coast is ODM damu. But you are betting on the wrong horse. Ali Hassan Joho is a known drug trafficker. Ask him where his money comes from. Him and his brother and cousins are banned from several countries including Dubai. His brother is a wanted man in India. Joho has close ties with the "Othaya NARC activitist" who brought us the Arturs to continue bringing HEROIN into Kenya and destroying the Kenyan youth. Raila forget about Joho because his game is over. Gone are the times when women were given 50 shillings to sing praises of the guy who is killing their sons by bringing them drugs. Drug dealers are worse than animals. They kill promising youth so that they can drive BMW limousines around Mombasa and then stand up to talk about drugs and all that sh*t.

The Kenya poöice know who brings drugs. They read like who is who from Moi's immediate family (his son who is married to the girl who was in the Lady Gay advert) to top policians in ODM and PNU. These are murderers and we are fighting over them. God help Kenya.

Balala apologise to Raila and Raila open your doors to Balala. Drug dealers will not go anywhere this time round.

Anonymous said...

Affirmative action by way of affirmative law is very important in improving the lot of women. It will enable women finally have a say in the issues that affect women most e.g reproductive health, poor education standards among girls, early marriage, abortion, etc,issues that men have completely ignored or handled to the detriment of women. It will also set a good example to young girls most of whom suffer from low self esteem due to a chauvinistic upbringing. Many african men look down the labour women go through to give life to children and sustain this life into adulthood. That is largely part of the problem our society faces.

The role of a woman giving life to another human being and nurturing the life into adulthood is hallowed all over the world by many cultures,whether christian or not (except in africa mostly).Christianity, especially catholism greatly revers and adores a woman by the name Mary,placing her far above many male saints.Many catholic men adore her daily. It is also at the advent of christianity that women started going to school and were therefore able to liberate themselves from a very oppresive and chauvinistic African culture and therefore live dignified lives. Christianity is not to blame for the poor conditions of a Kenyan woman. Unrepentant chauvinists, who always quote the repressive african customs when it suits their present circumstances, are.

Anonymous said...

Ati women giving life to new human beings? Kwani they drink the semen in water? It is all about quality split second ejaculation and not quantity 9-month gestation. STUPID.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 11:49

Ati split second? Have you seen a doctor about your pre-mature?

Anonymous said...

what do you have against being seen on tv?i know you're not a shy or unattractive man so unaogopa nini?
think big my brother!how long do you want this blog to be
just on computer&read at night by househelps+father+mother+children and computer sellers?

Its time to go big and TV is the place for it. see how much more
attractive female members of parliament look on the big screen than in real life. now tell me can't you see yourself hosting "Kumekucha live debates" in the new newsroom for Citizen TV with Troublesome Taabu as your co-host?

Forget about radio its a dead edium-tv is the way to go, and i tell you people want to see your face as they eat popcorn not just a picture of your ear on twitter.people want to hear Taabu's voice not just read his tasty words on football and politics. people want to
watch Phil and Vicky go hammer&tongs at each other defending the indefensible as they drink soda.

Mwarangethe needs his sense101 slot to preach sense into thick kenyan heads. And the program should have a catchy tune sung by MPESA or one of the kumekucha ladies like Sayra or Shiko MSA or Mama

it's time for fame bro.....don't fight it.

PS:-i will produce this program for a fee

Anonymous said...

11:05 AM
Kenyan women are the ones to blame themselves in the first place.

How can a nation with a larger population of women than that of "unprentive men" fail to elect more women representatives to parliament?

Or even settle on one candidate for the state house? What went wrong? How many times has it been said that women are good at consensus building and they are the best peace makers?

Affirmative action/election/nomination should be reserved for rural women and women who reside in the urban majengo (ghettos/slums).

The issue should not be hijacked by the usual suspects and spill overs from maendeleo ya wanawake who have always believed since the 1960s and still think in 2010 that they are better than their counterparts in the rural areas and majengo, or they are in a class of their own just because they happen to have attended certain schools, colleges and universities and have lived privileged lives.

The cliques of elite urban women, the privileged, those who have benefited in the name of helping majority of Kenyan women and those who end up forging deals behind closed doors with their corrupt male counterparts and colluding with other political hyenas in far away resorts with corrupt male politicians, should never be allowed to benefit from affirmative action for the rural women and slum women.

Level the playing fields, level the political fields, level the urban fields, level the economic fields, level the education fields, level the corporate fields, level the medical fields, level the financial institution fields and what have you and then ALLOW majority of rural Kenyan women (not just the urban types) to have their say in Kenya.

Otherwise, let's not fool the rural and majengo women of Kenya with the usual ancient slogans from Animal Farm or Shamba La Wanyama or Maendeleo Ya Wanawake ("fulani wa mjini").

Who really about activities that are more concerned about their own pockets, stomachs, images and egos rather thn the common Kenyan women struggling to make a living and stay above the waters of abject poverty in 2010?

Anonymous said...


Mwarang'ethe said...

Anonymous said...
Affirmative action by way of affirmative law is very important in improving the lot of women. It will enable women finally have a say in the issues that affect women most e.g reproductive health, poor education standards among girls, early marriage, abortion, etc,issues that men have completely ignored or handled to the detriment of women.


The idea that, women would benefit if we put more women in power is a serious failure of analysis and a carefully designed cover up for what must be done.

Sample this. After the end of apartheid in 1994, the number of township shack dwellers in SA have increased by 50% in the first 10 years.

Surely, if we go by your analysis, having enacted a wonderful constitution as they come and elected blacks as leaders, the poor blacks problems would have been solved.

We know you will come up with those tired ideas of oh, African leaders are corrupt blah blah.

We shall reject these "explanations" as carefully constructed diversions from essential structural reforms on:

(a) money and banking,
(b) land,
(c) Irrational conspicous and wasteful consumption, a relic of the European aristocratic culture which is nothing, but, a reflection of ignorance of Entropy Law.
(d) unequal trade which is facilitated by control of:

(a) monopolization of African natural resources,
(b) monopolisation of wealth creation process (industrial technology).

(c) and (d) are facilitated by blatant denial of monetary sovereignty to African nations. And, a nation without monetary sovereignty cannot claim to be free.

Thus, instead of "them" fooling you with affirmative actions, useless "elections," thru Transparency International, CNN, BBC, confront "them" on the above issues.

Anonymous said...

All ye nay sayers check this out

Anonymous said...


Case: #846032012/456/SL/2010/Washington, DC.

Atten: Powers That Be.

Recall, transafer, or replace one Masharubu Ndeda Ndeg'e. Move him out to Sudan, Ethiopia or Uganda ASAP.

Total waste of nation's resources (payroll).

Anonymous said...

Ati Taabu's tasty words on politics and football? Taabu's words are so ACIDIC, they would melt the TV screen. Please save us from his flaming tongoue.

Anonymous said...

ODM mafia are trying to mutilate and rape the draft constitution by dividing Kenya into 25 tribal enclaves for easier ethnic cleansing come 2012. If Raila must ascend to the presidency, he must do so without creating tribal jimbos headed by warlord he intends to recruit into ODM pentagoon. All patriots must resist this blatant attack on nationhood. The draft constitution must be approved as it is, period.

Kimi Raikkonen said...

Anon @ 11.49pm:
NONE of the proposed amendments from PNU or ODM will get 145 MPs to enable passage, meaning that the revised COE Draft that calls for a 2 tier Govt with 47 counties will go to referendum and become the new const'n. Your ODM dream of a 4 tier const'n designed to isolate the GEMA communities will never see the light of day, take that to the bank and cash it.
As for Phil's claims that Raila is unstoppable in 2012, he is just daydreaming. Kenyan politics is highly tribalised, and tribe trumps everything when election time comes. What political capital has Raila gained from his mau 'green' crusade since he went there? Nothing! In fact, people have even forgotten he was there, and even worse, the Kalenjin, a key 2007 election ODM constituency and who gave 300000 more votes to Raila than Luos (1.6m), have for all intents and purposes jumped ship and are just waiting for the const'n review matter to conclude before trooping to UDM, a party they intend to form an alliance with Uhuru's GEMA and Kalonzo's Akamba. Forget the childish naivète and wishful thinking of the Luo cabal that surrounds Raila that they can somehow woo Ruto and the Kalenjin back to ODM. Culturally, once a Kalenjin man makes up his mind, there is no going back and Raila is already being called 'Arap Chutbei' or the one who can't deliver. In a mere 2 years he has fallen from 'Arap Mibei' to 'Arap Chutbei', picture that. Without Kalenjin support in ODM, and who comprise 12% of the registered voters, Raila is cooked. In an alliance with GEMA (32%) and Akamba (11%) plus half of the Bukusus, Somalis, Boranas, Kisiis, Maasais and Coastals, HOW IS SUCH AN ALLIANCE BEATABLE by ODM-Raila?! Even if Raila were to peel away a generous 20% of the GEMA, Kalenjin and Akamba votes, he still wouldn't make the 50%+1 threshhold to be declared outright winner. For Raila to peel away 20% from GEMA is impossible as of today, given that his recent political trip to Murang'a was dead on arrival. Even his new sidekicks like Peter Kenneth were nowhere to be seen and disappeared at the last minute. Raila's only hope is to woo back the Kalenjin, starting with the coming trip to Ruto's constituency. Lets see how that goes.

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