All seemed to be well and just last month it looked like Kenyans were well and truly on their way to getting a new constitution, especially after the Naivasha retreat of the Parliamentary select committee handling the new constitution.
Then suddenly…. Drama. Now long suffering Kenyans are watching dumfounded as chances of a new constitution seem to be gradually but surely slipping away from their hands. It seems that every new day either side of the political divide is coming up with a brand new demand or position over issues previously agreed on.
But what is really going on? Why the sudden change of tact by MPs?
Just like in a murder investigation, the quickest way to figure out things when politicians start to behave in strange ways is to look for a motive or motives. If you instead try to listen to what they are saying and even attempt to analyze it, you will end up very very confused.
So what would the motive be for somebody to murder our new constitution?
Let us make it even simpler by asking two simple questions.
Who stands to gain the most with the passing of a new constitution? Answer: The long suffering people of the republic of Kenya.
Who stands to lose the most from the passing of a new constitution? Answer: The political class.
Many naïve Kenyans think that under the current constitution power is in the hands of parliament and the president. Hahahahahahahaha! If this were so then Kenyans would not be so upset with their leaders, don’t you think?
Real power is in the hands of the political class. They control land in Kenya, they control the economy, they control the courts, they control parliament etc. Now if the draft constitution were to be passed there are a couple of fellows who would not be able to sleep at night.
Daniel Moi and his vast tracts of land grabbed from the people, not to talk of billions stashed away in foreign accounts would have plenty to worry about. Moi seems to make comments about the new constitution almost daily. Now you know why. Add Moi men like Nicholas Biwott, Joshua Kulei, William Ruto etc. to that list. If power reverted to the people then you can be sure that the people will demand that this property be returned.
And it is not only Moi. Add every major family in the political class to that list. Names like Kenyatta, Kibakis etc. The Odinga’s are NOT clean but the truth is that when the most vicious part of the rape of the Kenyan people was happening, the Odingas were either in detention, organizing coups or under house arrest. So the truth (which many readers here hate to hear) is that in the political class, the Odingas have the least to lose with the advent of a new political dispensation.
So is it any wonder that there is so much dust around the passing of a new constitution?
But let me end this post by saying that there is still a glimmer of hope. And just like in the first liberation (Independence of Kenya in 1963), this last and true liberation is being pushed for from outside Kenya. It is no accident that Kofi Annan is expected into the country today. I have already said in this blog many times before that the president of the United States is right at the forefront of pushing for change in Kenya. (The first time I said this I was mocked here by many of my nice readers).
So the big question now is; will international pressure prevail and save Kenya?
For those who will be watching the proceedings in parliament today, don’t attach too much to what you hear those jokers saying, instead focus on the body language. Body language never lies.
My ground-breaking post on Biwott and Moi's hidden wealth