In the days of retired president Daniel arap Moi, every move he made was analyzed and re-analyzed to try and figure out what he was up to. And true enough a few weeks later or even a few months later it suddenly became clear what Moi's game plan was.
It is emerging (and has just dawned on yours truly) that the biggest mistake political analysts in Kenya are making these days, including this blogger is to attempt to analyze the political moves of one Emilio Stanley. How do you analyze blunders?
Take the signing of the recent controversial bill aimed at clipping the wings of the media ahead of the post election violence trials. Why would Alfred Mutua suddenly wake up one morning and start distributing anti-media leaflets on the streets of Nairobi? (Nairobians just glanced at them and threw them down, littering the clean streets of Nairobi.) Is this not a clearly an attempt at damage control after the blunder has already happened?
If truth be told, Emilio Stanley Mwai Kibaki will go down in history as the most blundering president Africa has ever had. Can you think of another one? (Even Idi Amin with his broken English was decisive and made very few mistakes). If you review the Kibaki administration right from the day one, it is a long, boring, repetitive chronicle of political mistakes and blunders.
So what is the big deal? After all human is to err one would say. Sadly it is not as simple as that in this case. The problem we have here is that the Kenyan presidency is so powerful that the consequences of a single blunder can be catastrophic, let alone several in a row. Take the big mistake made to go ahead with the referendum in 2005? That mistake led to the fiasco of December 2007 than left thousands of Kenyans dead (the official figure is still sic hundred and something. Huh!!!) and hundreds of thousands homeless. I have asked several times in this blog what the cost of stealing an election is and nobody has dared to venture to give a figure. Actually it runs into billions and the bills are still piling up even as you read this.
The tragedy of Kenya today is that the country is stuck with a weak, indecisive blundering leader who has got powers in his hands that young King Mswati (of Swaziland) and King Charles (before Cromwell) would envy. The kind of powers that have made his predecessors often confuse themselves with God. Now giving that power to a blundering politicin who has made a career out of NOT making decisions is more than tragic. It is almost like leaving a child with a loaded revolver.
The bottom line, my sources assure me, is that the president did not expect the kind of troubles that he now has in his hands when he signed the Kenya Communications act last Friday afternoon. Just like he did not expect the troubles we saw in January when he made the decision to steal the election.
What will he do next without fully appreciating the consequences?
Kazi iendelee wacha wale wanataka kuropoka waropoke
Could this story about the sacking of journalists over the media bill be true? I was not able to verify from my sources at the time of making this post. But I am still digging around and will get back to you guys.
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