There is great anxiety amongst many quarters in Kenya at the moment as to whom the Americans may be backing for the presidency after their Mwai Kibaki honeymoon ended rather unceremoniously with unprecedented blood-letting in Kenya.
If truth be told the Americans contributed a great deal in provoking the post election violence in Kenya by failing to read the mood on the ground and blindly assisting Mwai Kibaki to steal an election in such an obvious manner. It is on record that the World Bank continued to do business with the corrupt Kibaki government days before the elections and their point man, World Bank country director Colin Bruce not only boasted that he knew who would win the presidency, but he even put his sentiments in writing (remember the leaked memos?). This is behind a backdrop where polls showed a close race and one that favoured ODM’s Raila Odinga. The truth on the ground was that at no time was the presidential race in Kenya last December, close. Actually Raila had a very convincing win, bordering on a landslide as even the flawed results showed because he won 6 out of the 8 provinces very decisively indeed. But all that is now water under the bridge.
Any keen observer in International politics will quickly tell you that American foreign policy has really never succeeded anywhere. From Iraq to the mess they have created in neighboring Somalia by orchestrating the removal of a stable Islamic courts government when they had nothing feasible to replace it with. Power abhors a vacuum as any high school history student will tell you.
And the list of American failures in Africa goes on and on.
But nowhere is the consistent and spectacular failure of the Americans’ foreign policy more fascinating than it has been in Kenya.
They started off backing a brilliant young politician called Tom Mboya. Mboya had such influence at one point that it is said that he was easily able to access President John F. Kennedy any time he wanted. The shrewd Mboya on his part milked his relationship with the Yankies to the limit. For instance the famous airlifts to the US enabled hundreds of Kenyans to study in American universities. One of the famous beneficiaries of this is current Internal security minister Prof. George Saitoti.
To date the Americans have never gotten a better bet...
Read more...
P.S. William Ruto earlier today supported Musalia Mudavadi as ODM's choice for deputy Prime Minister. His action confirms the pressure and tension that is already building up within ODM over the upcoming Grand coalition government cabinet.
kumekucha!
ReplyDeleteright on the mark-
look at what is happening now?? mt. Elgon no explanation -Laikipia no explanation- but the American have to be careful - on who they support!kenyans will never accept UHURU KENYATTA THE KNOWN DRUNKARD OVER RAILA- I UNDERSTAND RAILA IF WORSE COMES TO WORSE AND AMERICANS GO THAT ROUTE- HE ALREADY HAS STAND BY SUPPORT FROM OTHER QUARTERS- SO AMERICA WILL LOSE ANY CONNECTION TO KENYA JUST LIKE THEY DID CUBA AND LOOK AT THE COUNTRIES LIKE VENEZUELA WITH CHAVAS???
SO YOU SEE RAILA IS NOT fool !!he didn't go through his political life until he won to hand it over to some few elite kikuyu thugs who have the support of the USA - when did his grand standing he knew when push come to shove where his outside support was going to come from!!
do you imagine some one throwing out a comment such as we will Lesotho central if he didn't have a plan on how to achieve that??
i think many people are indeed underestimating Raila and i guess that is good on his part!
In the larger scheme of things, Kenya amounts to a tea cup and the election fiasco a storm in that tea cup. I don't think that America really looses sleep over the goings on in Kenya as long as the country is stable enough to allow them to use the port and for their goods to gain access into the interior where they have closer partners in UG and TZ. The last time the US paid any significant attention to Kenya was during Amb. Hempstone's tenure. From then on they have been content to send women as ambassadors to kenya. Did President Bush even visit kenya in his presidency?
ReplyDeleteSo let's not heap too much blame on the US for our own failings. The election fiasco is our mess and we should handle it before the next cycle where tensions are most likely to hit the roof and everyone will be better prepared with not just sticks and stones.
hey kumekucha?? i read on one blog that pnu is paying out $200 a day for bloggers to go online and post abusive statements on i think Raila and Ruto??
ReplyDeletecan you connect some of us to how the money is being paid?? since you are at times very resourceful? i don't mind making $200 a day that is $1000 on 5 working days- that is good extra $ on to of my current job uku abroad!
hey it is like any other business!!
waiting for your replies.....
yes i think i saw it at mashada blog not sure how legit that is?? but please do find out - i don't want to miss on making a quick $
Chris you may be right on US immenase interest on Kenya given that we host their regional command base-political and otherwise. But the focus is shifting slowly but steadily and if things continue this way our regional relevance may be up in smoke.
ReplyDeleteThe Brits are only exploiting colonial infrastructure they help built. But the world order is changing fast too and it may not continue for very long. Look at Zimbabwe they had plenty of interest there but now?
Count on REPUBLICAN US to act decisively but not the domo democrats. With a potential democrat at WH next year Kenya and Africa in general will be relegated to the back banner. US startegies are built on quick returns and that is their fault. Some os these advantages Brits have over their ex-colonies dates ages. America's money and technology may not be the substitute they think they are.
Taabu you are kidding right?....
ReplyDeleteRepublicans don't give a care about Black Americans let alone Black Africans. Just look at the party's membership - a bunch of old white men and more older white men whose southern families are just a generation removed from owning some pieces of property called slaves. And don't say what about condoleezza, ever wondered how come she has more doctorates that the entire dubya kitchen cabinet YET the call her Condi....they never called madalene albright Madie or did they?
Kumekuchans,
ReplyDeleteThis is not my habit, but please allow me to copy and paste this piece in this thread. This Raikkonen of a man or woman insulted me and other rational people as idiots for telling him that it is unlikely for Ruto to be nominated Deputy PM by Raila. He kept on insisting that Ruto will be nominated merely on the basis that he had got more votes to ODM than even Raila himself, and also that a few Kalenjin MPs had proposed Ruto for the post. Raikonnen is a GEMA and PNU apologist and yet he/she thinks he knows what is going on in ODM than ODMers themselves.
I apologise to Ritch for posting a piece that was not relevant to his thread. But again, this is one of the disadvantages of moderation: it does not allow free dispensation of information relative to the time it is written. Also, I think I got the information about Ruto's endorsement for Mudavadi b4 the current thread was posted. And I was burning to tell Raikkonen a small piece of my mind....
Raikkonen,
William Samoei Ruto has HIMSELF endorsed Mudavadi as Deputy PM in tonight's (Sunday) NTV Jioni news.
You have insulted us as idiots when we told you that we are insiders and we know how things are. But you have thought you are a good analyser of information and insisted that Ruto will be made DPM because he brought in more votes for ODM than Raila himself.
Who is the idiot now? Jogoo wa shamba hawiki mjini.
Next time you do your analysis, please be gracious enough to hear what the insiders are saying. And never call anybody an idiot just because he does not see things your way. I said you are opinionated, impatient, arrogant and pathologically a GEMA apologist. I stand by my words.
If you are a true gentleman/woman, apologise. If you don't, then it will be a confirmation that you are what I described you to be!!!
Kanyarkwat
In case you have forgotten, read below two of the four responses I made to you several days before he endorsed Mudavadi, and to which I have been vindicated.
Raikonen,
You come across as one opinionated, arrogant, impatient and ethnicised GEMA apologist who thinks that everybody must accept what you say or else. You are not a good person to engage in a discussion with because you pride in ramming things down people's throats and when they don't want to swallow it you call them idiots.
You are not GOD my friend, just a fellow Homo sapiens who is finite, limited in capacity and with a shelf life not exceeding 100years (I am being generous, if you are in Kenya, the shelf life is a measly 45 years!!) I am not an idiot just because Raikkonen says so.
From your comments in this thread, you strike me as one who got a lump in your throat when Raila and Kibaki came together and you thought it was a bad dream. Now that reality has struck you, you now live in denial. And when your sobriety comes up once in a while, you make wishes and then think and live like what you wished is what is. You are, for some reason, obsessed with the position that Raila will choose Ruto as his Deputy PM. You don't have any facts from the ground except for some statements you have read in the papers (when you quote Nation, I take it with the same seriousness one took Kenya Times during the Moi days) spiced with your fertile imagination.
Let me give you facts, spiced with information from the ground. Raila held up Mudavadi's hand high during the ODM presidential nominations on 1st September 2007 and declared before all the delegates that he (Mudavadi) was the vice captain. All the delegates applauded and since then, there has been no dispute about it. Mudavadi has been accorded all the respect due to a vice captain by both Raila and the ODM team. Raila has told us several times that his word is his bond.
It is not in the interest of ODM that Ruto gets the Deputy PM because he is abrasive and overly ambitious. He is not likely to go along with Raila with loyalty and humility the way Mudavadi would. If he gets that job, it will either be because Mudavadi will get a bigger job, or out of civility on Mudavadi's part. Raila knows very well that if Ruto gets the job BECAUSE he worked for it, then he will not be loyal to him, but will instead push harder for other things and fight hard to expand his influence, even to the detriment of the party(ask Wiper). Loyalty is a very important, if not critical, aspect in the politics of Kenya. It was best exemplified by one JJ and a certain court poet during the Nyayo era.
The same Nation that you quoted has this Sunday said that Ngilu is rooting for Mudavadi as Deputy VP. You have or will selectively ignore this piece. But it is significant because Ngilu is the first Pentagon member to speak on this matter and make her choice known publicly. It must be carrying some weight, more than the few Kalenjin ordinary MPs you are basing your argument on. Even among the Kalenjin, there is the Koskei (Henry)-Koskei (Sally) axis which is not enthusiastic about Ruto's rise politically. Everybody accepts that Ruto has worked hard in and for ODM, but as Moi told Saitoti, "You are my friend, but not all friends are presidential material." Ruto is still very useful and a great asset to ODM, but Raila has been quoted saying that not everyone in ODM will get what he wants.
Finally, let me tell you something about the GEMA unity you think is invincible. Right now there are more than 100,000 Kikuyus in IDPs (the ones Kalonzo "agreed" to host in Ukambani). They are predominantly of Kiambu extraction because very few Nyeri Kikuyus have bought land in RV. These IDP kyuks are bitter with the Nyeri kyuks because the latter contributed to their current state. The few who could go elsewhere went but the majority have remained in the IDPs hoping to go back to their RV farms. They will not want to rock the boat again in the next elections and will lie low like envelops in order to have their peace. Njuri Ncheke are waiting for things to cool down before they remind Lucy that she owes them a goat and possibly an apology for calling them "foolish Merus" (I feel she will not bend that low) and this might cause displeasure among the Amerus. Kirinyagans have derogatorily been referred to as "Toilet Cleaners" by the Kyuks and the effects of this might reverberate in future.
The post-election violence that we are coming out of has affected everyone, and it has definitely changed perceptions and values of Kenyans. The ethnic card may not work very well in the next elections. People will vote in leaders who guarantee them peace and continuity. Voting will be such that the outcome does not ignite ethnic tensions and hostilities.
So, Raikkonen, cool down and sober up. I know it is in the interest of the GEMA group that Ruto is chosen Deputy PM because they think this will bring tensions and possibly break away in ODM. But if wishes were horses, even beggars would get a ride. Do you want a ride?
Raikkonen,
You have gone round and round until you have lost the gist of the argument. You have been insisting that Ruto should/will/must be given the Deputy PM post because he brought in more votes than Raila himself. I have been telling you that that may not necessarily be the criteria of choosing the DPM. You keep insisting as if you are an insider. You base your reasoning on the statements made by a few Kalenjin MPs. And just as I predicted above, you are conveniently ignoring statements from Ngilu and Luhya MPs that Mudavadi should be the DPM. what makes you think that only the Kalenjin voices will be heard? And since you are insisting so much, what will you say when Ruto will not be chosen DPM?
Let's do this, Raikkonen, let's wait until the ODM DPM has been chosen and the reasons/criteria used known, then we can discuss better. As for now it is just my word against yours and yet we are just both speculating.
Ahhh! but I loathe your tribalistic leaning and Kikuyu supremacy mentality.
Anon @12:49
ReplyDeleteRuto just did the obvious. Whether you pour bile on Raikonen, or not, Ruto stood no chance of ascending to the DPM post. I do not think that being in the Peace negotiating team made him a lesser devil just days after the bloodbath and human-roasting events in Eldoret to rise to that post.
I dont want to be called a spindoctor or a spy, but the fact is that even Kalonzo Musyoka to rise to the presidency in 2012 (which I doubt) is easier than Ruto being a PM (he was conned during the election; a DPM in the Coalition and even the Finance minister.
Ruto has no chance at the moment. There is only one man who could rise up there and it is Musalia Mudavadi, not Balala and not even Charity Ngilu. Sorry to say, it needs brains, political acumen and standing that Mudavadi, Raila and Kibaki have at the moment.
So, opinionated or not, Raikonen is entitled to his comments, just as you are.
-Derek-
Anon 12:49AM
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis,spot on.
We must not be surprised that the setting up of a new cabinet is causing anxieties within both coalition parties.
ReplyDeleteTHAT IS TO BE EXPECTED. The big story of the week will be the first step towards the dilution of the executive's powers with the constitutionalisation of the agreement.
Your analysis of Kenya's post-colonial years without factoring in the Cold War and what it meant for political accomodation in different African countries vis-a-vis the West and East is incomplete.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise Chris, thanks for the post - l'll look for that Time magazine.
Chris the situation is more complicated than what you present above.
ReplyDeleteRemember American policy in the days of Smith Hempstone? Their understanding of local politics has become more sophisticated than what you present above.
Derek; I agree.
ReplyDeleteRuto's time will come but it is not now (I am a major supporter of this man).
He is still a powerhouse as far as ODM is concerned but he knows that his time will come in the future; that was the message his province sent him when they threw their weight behind Arap Mibei.
secession is the ultimate solution
ReplyDeletecentral/eastern will not "allow" any one else to lead them, and the best solution is therefore
they do not deserve to rule anyone else other than themselves
it will be secession whether it happens now while there is still hope for economic stability and peace or much later when there's absolutely nothing left to "eat" and after much anguish when history repeats itself for the umpteenth time.
http://www.kenyatimesonline.com/content.asp?catid=2&articleId=1949
deroo,
ReplyDeleteKibaki has brains right... senile brains that is...
Any keen observer in International politics will quickly tell you that American foreign policy has really never succeeded anywhere.
ReplyDeleteA quick glance at the history of post-WW2 Europe, conclusively refutes that thesis.
They started off backing a brilliant young politician called Tom Mboya...
It’s annoying that you identify American foreign policy with (alleged) support for individual politicans, but let that pass. You fail to identify American foreign-policy mistakes in Kenya save in vague, general, and therefore uninformative terms.
Mboya was an excellent choice: he was easily the sharpest of the independence generation of politicians; to influence him was to determine the course of Kenya’s economic history, since he was the official ideologue of the post-independence state. Incidentally, Saitoti went to the USA on a Wien scholarship – Mboya airliftees were typically funded by the Kennedy foundation.
They totally ignored the less than fluent Jaramogi Oginga Odinga (father to Raila) who proceeded to casually lock Mboya out of the presidency by insisting that Jomo Kenyata be released before independence.
Untrue. Jaramogi’s call for the release of Kenyatta was an atttempt to secure the Kikuyu vote, and therefore leadership of KANU. Mboya was Secretary-General of KANU at the time, easily the most popular African politican (cf. Goldsworthy whom you quote, but haven't, it seems, read with any care), and therefore Odinga père's main rival; Jaramogi hoped that he and Kenyatta could team up to squeeze out Mboya. This was a mistake, since, as quickly became apparent, Mboya and Kenyatta were ideologically at one. When Odinga revealed his hand, Mboya and Kenyatta combined to expel him from KANU. After the expulsions, Mboya was probably the second power in the land; his chances of succeeding Kenyatta were quite good, hence the tenth amendment to the constitution. Odinga came nowhere near locking him out of the presidency.
When President Kenyatta died rather suddenly and unexpectedly in August 1978, the Americans like everybody else were taken by surprise. Still they could not hide their delight. They were sure that this time they would get their man in the seat of power because the two front runners to succeed Kenyatta, according to them were both “friends of America.” Mbiyu Koinange was the front runner according to the American state department and second in line was the late president’s nephew, a Stanford educated medical doctor turned politician called Njoroge Mungai. Indeed the influential Time magazine published an article where they echoed these sentiments.
The only evidence you offer for the claim that the Americans believed Koinange and Mungai were best placed to succeed Kenyatta is a Time article; it is insufficient to sustain the claim. Kenyatta himself opposed the Change The Constitution movement, of which both were part; it is difficult to see how, after that, they could be considered front-runners. (see Widner 1993: 117) What is clear is that the Moi-Kibaki-Njonjo bloc was in pole position well before August 1978, and knowably so. Your version of the history is contrary to the best evidence.
What followed was a 24 year Tom and Jerry (I love that classic cartoon) battle between the mighty Americans (Tom the cat in this case) and the humble former herds boy who never saw the inside if a high school, called Daniel arap Moi (Jerry)...
Moi actually went to secondary school in Kapsabet, but didn’t get into Alliance for the higher grades. And the Americans made it clear to him that he had to go: Powell, Cheney and Bush all met him and told him as much. (See Barkan 2004). Given the evident antipathy between Moi and basically the entire American establishment, it is quite unlikely that they favoured the Uhuru succession.
Finally, you’ve shown no reason whatever to think that Raila is now in receipt of American help or support.
America’s chief goals were to ensure that Kenya became and remained a democratic, pro-Western, capitalist state. It is uncontroversial that at least two of those goals have been achieved.
it seems that 'kawiper' has finally gotten his 'miracle' if ruto is supporting mudavadi for the deputy pm-seriously what did odm get in that peace deal?
ReplyDeletewhat was the point of voting if all the presidential candidates were all going to form the government? they should just have shared these positions before the elections and spared us all the agony we have gone through!! and can some one advise those people that while at it, can they throw in matiba, muiru, nazlin umar and all the other election loosers to complete the picture?
after all, what does it matter what kenyans want? it is all about them and their stupid positions!!
Yes, I'm back-will even be back with a new post . Iko swari? :)
ReplyDeleteIts hits me as more than a little weird to see you trash Uncle Sam's opinions like that yet you advocate only what he does-a 4 year presidential term is just one case in point.Quoting you "Just ask Americans what they would have done if President George W. Bush had been in office for two terms of 5 years each…". Contradictory?
I personally can't wait for the day Kenya shall solutions to Kenyan problems that are by Kenyans, for the Kenyans. We are to blame for the bulk of the problems, after all.
Deroo @1:10 says:
ReplyDeleteSo, opinionated or not, Raikonen is entitled to his comments, just as you are.
Are you saying that Raikkonen is entitled to call me an idiot?
Being called an idiot is an insult. When I say he is opinionated, impatient etc I am describing his behaviour.
Everybody is always entitled to his opinion, but those opinions must be based on sound facts, experiences and/or information, not just thoughts and wishes. For instance, if I say that you Deroo will be knocked down by a vehicle 2moro just because Kiraithe has said that the number of unroadworthy vehicles has increased, and then I call you an idiot when you try to say that in your part of town there are no vehicles, only bicycles, will you still tell me I am entitled to my opinion?
Kanyarkwat
"what was the point of voting if all the presidential candidates were all going to form the government? they should just have shared these positions before the elections and spared us all the agony we have gone through!! and can some one advise those people that while at it, can they throw in matiba, muiru, nazlin umar and all the other election loosers to complete the picture?
ReplyDeleteafter all, what does it matter what kenyans want? it is all about them and their stupid positions"
Mrembo allow me to address your frustrations...I have been following keenly your "recent" backlash on the power sharing deal!
It is not lost to Kenyans who won the elections, we the Kenyans did. And ODM was the Vehicle, Raila its driver. We were robbed of that victory & sure enough violence was the result. ODMs plan was & IS to bring the much needed equity that is desperately needed in our country, do not insult us by making the grand coalition about power & positions.
The peace deal is NOT about positions or Individuals. It is an Interim coalition for the purpose of REFORMS, HEALING, TRUTH & JUSTICE!
Yes you are frustrated but what would you say about Raila who was robbed of the presidency & yes in the name of peace he has to work with the same thugs, which many of you have vilified him for, yet he is the ELECTED PRESIDENT OF KENYA?
Raila is a seasoned politician, acknowledged for political foresight, always ahead & on top of his game, how else did he fell Moi & Kibaki?
P.s I am referring to him as he is the party leader..He is the political enigma in this country, no one can deny that. Do you think this events have taken him by surprise, Is there any political leader in this country who has undergone a baptizm by fire like Raila has, why do we villify him even when it is clear he is not at fault?
We seem to forget that He has been in Politics way before most of this generation was born, including myself! He is not betraying the kenyans who voted for ODM, he is keeping his enemies closest & reconciling a country that was ready to go to the dogs!!
Please go back to the history of this country & of Raila himself, you will get the much needed answers.
I am sure the entire ODM fraternity is equally frustrated, I share in your frustration as I was a first time voter, but we also know that with patience we will get what is rightfully ours. The Grand Coalition is not an end in itself, it is an opportunity to lead the country into the much needed reforms which is larger than any Individual, be it Raila, thief in chief, Matiba, Nazlin, Muiru, yourself or whoever else you mentioned.
Let us not loose ourselves in the process & forget the facts altogether!
Has Saitoti ever thought of thanking the people of South Nyanza or Pamela Mboya, for what T.J. did to him?
ReplyDeleteNo. A Kikuyu can never be thankful.
Ruto's withdrawal i guess caught everbody offguard......That is what true leadership is all about....He is young and we are watching and waiting....Na pls dont start character assasinating this guy....you know where to take the evidence tafadhali...I guess PNU which thought that ODM was going to sambaratika afte it names its DPM...Ruto ameturahishia kazi na hebu kazi ianze sasa and wherever RAO is can he make sure that the funds that they were sourcing for y'day will be put into use.....I was just reading a paper which says that every kenyan born or unborn owes donors about 36,000/= So i dont want to pay money that i dont know what it has done
ReplyDelete