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Friday, December 14, 2007

Official & Unofficial Opinion Polls: Friday 14/Dec/2007


Opinion polls ratings released today by Nation Media Group by Strategic Research, Infotrak Harris and Consumer Insight:

Raila [46%, 45.8%, 42.5%]
Kibaki [36%, 35.9%, 40.8%]
Kalonzo [17%, 16.4%, 15.1%]

Unofficial opinion poll survey done by the National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS) and leaked to this blogger by an insider shows that;

With 100% average turnout Raila 63% Kibaki 27%;
With a 90% turnout Raila 58% Kibaki 33%;

With a 80% turnout Raila 53% Kibaki 39%;
With a 50% turnout Raila 43% Kibaki 42%.

The leaked NSIS data does not show/mention Kalonzo Musyoka nor any other presidential candidates. These are the figures that senior cabinet ministers and the president’s close friends (read athuri) are scratching their heads over as of this morning.

ODM – who also have their internal opinion poll experts – know they are ahead of the PNU in the presidential and parliamentary race, and are banking their final campaign theme on a higher voter turn-out.

With exactly 13 days to the general elections, it appears Kibaki is poised to be sent packing from state house, a development which will greatly embarrass the head of state especially considering that he was elected in 2002 with an overwhelming majority and national goodwill. What went wrong? Is it the disregarding of the coalition MOU with LDP? Nepotism? Corruption?

Only time will tell.

25 comments:

TGonTC said...

Please... let the Fat lady sing first! (or is it Cantankerous?)

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

I'm psychologically prepared for any eventuality.
But I disregard the NSIS figures.

Anonymous said...

Forget "Athuri", a word that seems to excite Phil and co but most Kambas will rightly reason that a vote for Kalonzo is a wasted vote and hence vote for their close cousins in PNU. That's shauri ya our much tribalized politics! Ongeza nearly 1 million votes to PNU's basket. It's not over bwana/Bi Phil...until it's all over. I live in Langa'ta and believe it or not, your demigod won't even see bunge let alone statehouse. Pesa has been poured vibaya this time.
2 weeks is a long time in our exciting Kenyan politics. PNU is yet to unleash it's secret weapon which will strike this nation like a thunderbolt. It's in form of a "very nasty recording...." more later. That's an exclusive for Kumekucha. Brace yourselves. You heard it here first!

Nice weekend.

PNU Insider.

macs34 said...

C'mon PKW! atleast for 1s admit it!

by de way welcom back! i personaly missed your comments in here!!! so many posts hav gone which needed your comments

Anonymous said...

A relative who works with the NSIS told me today that they have given Kibaki the final research. They told him that he "stands no chance at all", unless he added quoting the Kiswahili saying "Ya Mungi ni mengi." Unless God decides otherwise, the cousin who is trusted since he has no stake in the hotly contested poll, after all, he is a pastrolist from Upper Eastern. It was agreed Kibaki continues with the campaigns and hits at raila more and more. But for now, it is "over."

Anonymous said...

I do not understand why am still very convinced that Kibaki will carry the day despite the low ratings by the polls. However, if ODM wins, am ready to eat humble pies. How I badly want and wait for the 27th to come to that I cast this vote of mine, and have the results which will be the Msema ukweli, coz the opinion polls have been antagonizing!

Vikii said...

Opinion polls are showing Raila Odinga leading, no doubt about it. I believe in a body that knows what it is doing like Steadman. These other fellows are according to me incredulous. Still, The Steadman Group shows Raila on the lead but with a sensible margin. As much as I agree with the authenticity and credibility of the Steadman findings, I am 100% convinced Kibaki will win. Voter turn out exhibited by his traditional strongholds in past elections will kill the election for Kibaki. I am foreseeing a massive improvement on that end.

About the "NSIS" poll, I am restraining myself from laughing. Are the possible voter turn-outs (100,90,80 and 50) EVEN across the board? If yes, can Taabu or anybody with some average understanding of how it works confirm or deny that a 50% turn out should return exactly the same percentage scores for the two candidates as 100% turn out would? There can never be any difference! I know it doesn't matter but I am trying to prove something here; Either the "NSIS findings" are Phil's cuisine or our NSIS is grossly incompetent. Which is which Phil?

kalamari said...

In a state of absolute feverish faith, more like the speaking in tongues in today's Kenya, St. Augustine was heard yelping in excitement, "Give me chastity, but not yet!!"

Phil, that's your answer to what went wrong with Mwai Kibaki. I had no reason to doubt that the man was genuinely for Kenya and for change in 2002. I think his story and even his ascending to the throne on a wheelchair was inspiring to very many jamaas around the world. I was actually in a place where some Kenyan refugees shed tears.

It is now apparent that Kibaki asked and had a terrible passion to be our liberator…but not yet….maybe after five years of looting and retarding our democratic gains.

Phil said...

I am glad PKW is "psychologically prepared" for a Raila win come 28th December.

Trust Vikii to cast aspersions on any post that shows Raila is on the lead. But I am informing you, Vikii, that this leakage is very credible and is from a very reliable source (who has provided many other scoops here before).

It is common knowledge that Kibaki draws the bulk of his support from Central province and the Upper Eastern Province. It is also common knowledge that a lower voter turn-out will affect Raila (who leads Kibaki in Kenyas 6 provinces). Why? Because Gema votes are 4.3m while the rest are 9.8m. To beat PNU, ODM contends, turn out in ODM strongholds has to be over 80%. If you have been keeping abreast with campaign news, you will not have failed to notice, Vikii, that this high voter turnout message has seen Kibaki spend the whole of this week in his stronghold areas mentioned above. PNu are hoping that with government induced clashes in Molo, Kuresoi, Mt Elgon, Sondu, Transmara and other ODM strongholds, the insecurity will negatively affect voter tunr out in these areas to the advantage of PNU.

It is now an open secret that PNU has resigned to fate - awaiting a whitewash from Raila on 27th Dec. Of course they are hoping to play games with the voter roll in Langata, but I can assure ODM is putting in place the tightest anti-rigging plan ever seen in this part of the world. Mark my words about that Vikii.

I cannot help but notice you have conveniently (and predictably) avoided mentioning anything about your mentor Kalonzo and ODM-K, currently copy-catting everything Raila does, including regional manifestos. We are amused at that.

Lastly, you and PKW have cleverly avoided commenting on Kibaki's reduced rating, from a popular president in 2002 to a struggling candidate in 2007. What happened? Perhaps Derek will help you guys.

Taabu said...

Phil stop bashing PKW, she said she is prepared for any eventuality and that includes RAO losing. You only chose to have selective inference when it suits you most. Next 20 days is real fire and Kenya will come out the better or the worse out it. May the best candidate win but we want our Kenya back in one piece please.

Proud Meru Man said...

Polls or no polls, its clear that Kibaki's re-election depends on voter turn out in his Mt Kenya region stronghold. Its clear the rest of Kenya is not too excited about a 2nd Kibaki term. High voter turnout in the rest of the country will favor Raila. My people of Meru are solidly behind Kibaki despite the ghost of Anglo Leasing that Mwiraria (my MP) and Kiraitu carry on their backs. If I had the unfortunate task of being a PNU strategist, I would spend the next two weeks preaching to the Mt Kenya faithful that voter turnout is the only hope for 2nd Kibaki President and I would look for a way to make sure this message does not get to the rest of the country.
On a personal level, despite the benefits my people of Meru have enjoyed from a Kibaki Presidency including an unproportionate share of plum jobs in govt, I will vote against Kibaki for his deliberate failures to condemn Anglo Leasing, protect Githongo, take action against the Armenian Arthur brothers saga, take action against press intimidation and his cohabitation with the barons of yesteryear corruption (Moi, Biwott, Gideon etc) amongst other actions of omission. I find it hard for example to understand why Kibaki pardoned Margaret Gachara the former director of the National Aids Control Council who was convicted of embezzling funds, sentenced to jail but shortly thereafter was pardoned by the Kibaki. If this is not condoning corruption, I don’t know what is.
As for Raila, he needs to know that we will be watching and wembe ni ule ule. 5 years is not too long and if you fail to deliver, the same fate awaits you. We belong to a new breed of Kenyans who demand more and expect more and shed off the tribal baggage that many Kenyans carry. However long it takes, we shall keep voting out the govt until we get it right.
Finally, I hope Raila treats Kibaki with dignity and respect during the handover should he win the election and not like the way Kibaki treated Moi during the 2002 handover. Despite his shortcomings, Kibaki has earned his place in history and should be accorded his due respect.
Mwenda J
USA

Vikii said...

Your argument concerning the NSIS voter turn out continues to sound pedestrian, Phil (You are still wobbling around). I will not dwell on that.

About ODMK and Kalonzo, they dont feature in the original post. I thought you always felt happy when I stick to the post.

On why Kibaki is struggling, it is not hard to see why. In 2002, Anti-kikuyuism had not yet been adopted as a party ideology.Two, the late Vice president, Michael wamalwa backed him, he is now deceased. Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka backed him but they are now fighting him. Did I answer your question?

P.s-- I do not want to look at the so called Rift Valley manifesto through the same lens as you, Phil. If your memory is ok, you will remember that Kalonzo was the first to introduce the now popular idea of Free Secondary Education. When he was introducing, the Steven Cavey/Joe Baker vocabulary of Paradigm Shift, he unveiled Social welfare and tax proposals, something Raila replicated at the Bomas of Kenya.
On May 26, Kalonzo unveiled his vision (Manifesto) on Sports at Kasarani. He made improvements on the same on October 20. I hope you now understand why I want to look at the Rift Valley 'copycat' as a "Group-Specific manifesto" rather than a regional one. And even if it were, what's wrong with that? We do not have trade marks for ideas, Phil.

luke said...

Chris, speak to nation and KTN -tell them they are waste time wanting to air a debate in-studio when they should televise live BLOG debate right here - today i can reveal that Vikii is actually Kibaki and Kalonzo typing from the same computer and Phil is Raila blogging on trail
Taabu can you get a hold of Julie whatshername off nation to act as moderator?thank you

deroo said...

You can put up any elaborate plans but Kibaki will still win. That is my consolation Phil. Phil, you told us that Kenya will see something never seen in the last quarter of this year with the ODM campaign. It ended up being a damp squib. MOU, Dick Morris, VAT, jailing MOi, Kivuitu more lies and wishes that came your way.

You simply live in a world of illusions. Like that busaa-starved informant who brought you minutes of an non-existent Maliza Raila meeting in Rift Valley, to yesterday's post that had no head or legs, you are telling us about an elaborate plan.

Please spare us the anguish of reading that. Your NSIS informant is lying to you. Tell him that I have told you that he is lying and dont believe him again.

Kibaki will not and cannot get 20% of the votes cast. Central Kenya only will give him a bigger percentage than Raila will get in Nyanza as a whole, He will win most seats in Nairobi and he will win others in Rift Valley.

If the NSIS bloke is not that bloke who was asking for fare or cash to buy a round of busaa in Kawangware, then I dont know.

I tell you that Kalonzo Musyoka will get an upwards of 20% and this will leave your Raila with 50% consideruing that Kibaki will get 27%.

But whether you are in some hysterical mood, please be reasonable. What is the percentage of the Eastern Province votes against the national population? Kibaki has a chuck of that to add to the Central one.

Then, Phil, we should not have an election, if your informants keep lying about everything.

But Phil, you are forgetting that KIbaki is in power!!! Think many times more.

john oilepo said...

Phil, you got the NSIS leak but you failed to interpret the poll extrapolations correctly:

PNU plans 100% turnout in its Central and Mid-Upper Eastern Strongholds through rigging or other mobilization, against this backdrop NSIS projects the following:-

With 100% ODM turnout Raila 63% Kibaki 27%;
With a 90% ODM turnout Raila 58% Kibaki 33%;
With a 80% ODM turnout Raila 53% Kibaki 39%;
With a 50% ODM turnout Raila 43% Kibaki 42%.

comprende?

The headache of PNU crew is that even with a low turnout in ODM strongholds Raila still has a chance and they know that turnout in ODM strongholds will most likely be higher than usual due to the extreme interest this election has attracted! Turnout amongst Luos, Luhya, Kaleos, Maasai and Muslims will mostly be high! Turnout may be low amongst Kisiis, nomadists, kambas, mijikendas and taitas due to their lower stakes.

john oilepo!

john oilepo said...

news flash: the millions being poured to sway this election are being wasted unless they are spent on advertising. i mean, i know friends who were given money to buy voter cards in some constituency but the dudes pocketed the whole loot and went and bought all the "lost and found" voter cards in a bureau in town, dumped them at the office of their paymaster and disappeared. i will be heading to lamu with them on 3rd to share the loot!

believe me any politician issuing money can be sure that it doest not reach the grassroots unless he/she distributes it himself.

Majitu said...

I think the only guy who gets it is Proud meru man- Mwenda J. Our politics should not be about Kibaki or Raila but about what they stand for. Kibaki's failure to see the constitution review through and build strong functioning structures weakens the entire country. What if he had another stroke? what would happen with the current chaotic state of useless government structures? Any TRUE Kenyan should take him to task for failing to deliver what he promised. From this point on every president should only get 5 years if they do not deliver. Irrespective of which community they hail from.

Phil said...

PNU insider - thanks for that. We shall see what you have in Langata.

WHAT OTHERS SAY

Two weeks to Kenya's vote, opposition holds lead
Fri 14 Dec 2007, 11:54 GMT
[-] Text [+]

By Andrew Cawthorne

NAIROBI (Reuters) - A flamboyant former political prisoner held the lead over Kenya's president in three opinion polls published on Friday less than two weeks before a national election in east Africa's largest economy.

The surveys gave opposition candidate Raila Odinga a range of 42.8 to 46 percent against President Mwai Kibaki's 35.9 to 40.8 in what some have forecast to be the closest vote in Kenya's history since independence from Britain in 1963.

But with two of the three new surveys showing Odinga, 62, roughly ten percentage points ahead of Kibaki, 76, it was clear which side was scenting victory.

"I think the polls are right. Raila is ahead, and his support is solid," said one foreign diplomat. "Privately, (Kibaki's) State House reckons they are going to lose."

In public, Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) -- both coalitions of smaller parties with little definable ideology -- proclaim they are on course for victory.

Kibaki is hoping his economic record -- growth has averaged five percent annually since he took over in 2002 -- and popular measures like free primary education will convince Kenya's 14 million voters to give him a second five-year term.

But Odinga supporters say the president has favoured his Kikuyu tribe, at the expense of other more marginalised communities, and done little to combat endemic corruption.

Despite being a wealthy businessman and former minister in Kibaki's government, Odinga has sought to present himself as a champion of the poor, and has garnered support beyond his western Luo tribe to lead polls in six of Kenya's eight regions.

CLOSE VOTE

Analysts fear a close vote may raise the possibility of violence and fraud, particularly in remote areas where foreign election observers will not be watching.

Some 15,000 local observers will, however, be able to keep watch on almost every constituency, from Kenya's steamy Indian Ocean coast, to its highlands and Maasai plains.

Though free of the wars that have devastated many of its neighbours, Kenya does have a history of violence around election time. This year's campaign has been no exception, with several deaths at rallies that have turned into riots.

There have also been allegations of fraud, including vote-buying and inflated registration lists.

The Strategic Research and Infotrak Harris polls published on Friday gave Odinga a large margin -- of ten percentage points -- that will delight ODM strategists who had braced for a PNU comeback due to heavy spending in recent days.

Consumer Insight, however, put the opposition leader just two points ahead, cheering Kibaki supporters who rubbish the polls and say their man's slogan "Kazi Iendelee" ("The Work Continues") is gradually convincing Kenyans to stick with him.

Measured and non-confrontational in public, Kibaki contrasts in style with the more voluble Odinga, who spent eight years in jail for dissidence, including supporting a failed coup attempt, under former President Daniel arap Moi.

But on major policy substance, the pair differ little.

Both vow to build on economic growth to turn Kenya into an "African Tiger", tackle poverty in a nation where half of the 36 million people live on less than a dollar a day, and make secondary education free too.

© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved.

deroo said...

"including a failed coup attempt under Daniel arap Moi". In the meantimes...NSIS has shifted to a salon in Kibera (oh sorry) Langata constituency.

Who were detained in the failed coup attempt, Raila Odinga, Otieno Mackonyango, Isreal Agina (Spectre?Molasses MD), Patrick Onyango Sumba fled to NOrway, Hezekiah Ochuka and Okumu hanged and thousands of the ODM current bodyguards jalied...and the story continues....

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

Quoting bwana Cawthorne:
"But on major policy substance, the pair differ little."

Better put "...the difference is the same."

Yvonne said...

PNU insider! What do you take Langata Voters for? Dumb or what is the other name? They remove Raila and replace him with Livondo? I thought guys in Langata are smarter than you think. Livondo can't even know that his name has been misspelt in his own ID. He can't even read a speech that has been written for him. I happened to go for a service in NPC Valley road where they were praying for elections, then there was Dr. Ojiambo for ODM K, Prof Nyong'o for ODM, And all this parties had their representatives including the little known Agano. When they called for a representative for PNU there was no one. When i went home 9:00 pm news ...Guess who was sitting on the 2nd bench ...Stanley Livondo/Livongo and i was like this guy didn't even notice that PNU was being called! SO PNU if you were counting on the luhya votes soerry most of them are registered voters in Westlands (Gumo's constituency) and the few who are there will definately not vote for Livondo...at least they are more intelligent unlike our brothers who would rather 'vote for a dog' (Not my words but the very words of Joseph Kamotho)

About PNU mwagaring money i dont care i will eat your money coz after all it is my money. Then another thing pls tell them to be a bit smarter you dont go dishing money in the open the way Lucy did in Malindi on Saturday. Si you consult the jirongos and the Rutos to show you how to do it effectively.
PNU insider do you know what 500/ can do right now. Check this out:

2 unga Ngano @120/- thus 240
2 Kgs of sugar 80 - thus 160
2 jogoos @50 thus 100 kwani you think i will eat this for five years come on si u style up...enzi ya nyayo iliisha. Remember the elections are secret ballot. I will eat the money but i kow where i will vote. By the way do you know the next venue for pouring out money coz i mean i must also partake in this!!! About the dossier we are waiting for it. But remember the headline on Friday....Kenyans have already decided where they will vote. To be precised i decided whom to vote for just immediately after the ODM presidential nominations and no amount of propaganda has swayed me so jaribu ingine au ni miujiza gani mtafanya na mumekuwa hapa hapa Kenya. Na kazi hiyo ya kumwaga pesa iendelee

Yvonne said...

Deroo try another one...'82' coup has become stale, just the way the Rift Valley leaflets have become. They were meant to be in the rubbish pit and that is where they are!!! What are you and Kimunya waiting for? If you beleive you have the evidence why dont you charge this guys in court? Pls pass this advise to Kimunya it is not for Raila to judge Lesirma or Kosgey it is the people of Aldai, Samburu West, Sabatia to reject them or choose them

Makale slim said...

Interesting the way people like discussing history.I can't believe guyz are still arguing who is going to win come 27th.

Am not going to waste ma time.On 28th am boarding Akamba bus from Kimilili for Raila's swearing in ceremony at uhuru park.GOD BLESS KENYA!

zak said...

I am a PNU damu but we have to admit, Raila is gaining ground. THe MoU, Majimbo and nominations fiasco is all gone and no one wants to hear them.
Secondly, the higher the turn out the higher the chances of raila winning.
We in ONu are failing to see one thing, a higher turn out will not be in Central province only. Infact it will be higher in other areas, and that adds points to RAO.
But its not yet over. But as it stands... Raila is ahead by 10%, its hard to say this but its the truth, infact Langata is a walkover for him, Who is Livindo...

deroo said...

Yvonne,

Thanx for that. Let me scan through your earlier posts and think of the level that we can engage. Whether intellect, propaganda or siasa ya kelele (or ODM/Raila). I am game in all.

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