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Friday, December 07, 2007

Latest Steadmann Polls As Kumekucha Enters The Fray

The latest Steadmann polls released moments ago show that Raila Odinga of ODM has stretched his lead to 46% against incumbent Mwai Kibaki’s 42%. Kalonzo Musyoka still trails and now has 10%

The NMG sponsored polls from Strategic Research, Infotrak Harris and Consumer Insight has the big 3 rated as follows;

Strategic Research: Raila-43%, Kibaki-39%, Kalonzo-17%

Infotrak Harris: Raila-43.7%, Kibaki-39.2, Kalonzo-15.2%

Consumer Insight: Raila-43%, Kibaki-39%, Kalonzo-15%


Interestingly Kumekucha has done its’ own poll, but I have rejected the results for now and it is currently being re-done. Our survey had a much higher concentration amongst the down and out and ordinary Kenyans than all the others. The reason I rejected our first attempt at a poll is that it shows Kalonzo Musyoka edging slightly ahead of President Kibaki to occupy the number 2 slot. That surely can’t be accurate, especially when you take the demographic figures of the Kikuyu community into account.

The more believable aspect of our poll (but still doubtful to many Kenyans) is that Raila has a lead of over 30% on President Kibaki.

Kindly don’t ask me to publish that poll because I want to do this right and publish something here that I can confidently defend from the hawk eyed and extremely intelligent PKW and other Kumekucha friends.

P.S. Maybe I should NOT have published that last bit of info knowing the way some people will react here.

17 comments:

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

Thanks for the complement Chris, whether it was in truth or in jest.

You do know my stand on figures -that they don't lie. My stand on liars? They do figure.Especially in election year opinion polls.And at the slightest chance that they are gonna be losers.
Here's what you said:

"Interestingly Kumekucha has done its’ own poll, but I have rejected the results for now and it is currently being re-done.....The reason I rejected our first attempt at a poll is that it shows Kalonzo Musyoka edging slightly ahead of President Kibaki to occupy the number 2 slot. That surely can’t be accurate."


Like I've been asking us all to agree, we will never agree with the figures (and/or with the Nation Media Group in the case of Kumekucha and Co.) unless they figure that your favourite candidate is 'leading'. I bet the only reason you agreed with your own 'findings' (come again?) is that they showed Raila leading with over a 30% margin over Kibaki.

I am waiting for your majority 'down and out' Kenyans to make their voice known as of Dec 28 or thereabouts.In the mean time, Kenya is a free country;just like you, I still get to choose what to believe. May the most compelling candidate (liar?) win.

Taabu said...

Chris stop being cheeky. Why do you unwarrantly provocke PKW? Repeating that she is intelligent is to intelligent cast aspersion on the same, did you?

That said, you let the (your) cat out of teh bag and it is roaming the streets. Polls are just that polls. But if you were to corrupt Shakira's lyrics NUMBERS DON'T LIE. Make no mistake, that doesn't stop them being manipulated to meet pre-specified ends.

You have failed the polls test by rejecting the results because you had a preconceived idea yo wanted to massage with numbers. Vikii will tell you that is a cardinal sin in data analysis: DATA SNOOPING. Only 19 days to go and all teh polls will be disabused pronto.

luke said...

These polls and their authors have now lost all meaningful credibility in my eyes!What exactly are you trying to tell us Steadman?have you stumbled upon hidden samples of constituencies and districts clumped together in the population of Kenya never discovered before up until now-and by you? well let Kumekucha publish its own polls right here even though they will only reflect a handful of 'elite' some of whom don't count because they are in the diaspora and apparently won't be returning to vote(what-a-joke),still it will be a better reflection of what is to come in less than 3 1/2 weeks than what we currently see, especially because some of us are getting ready to decamp from our publicly stated political backings to other created political mess expediently i might add- and Chris please introduce an online eraser (e-raser) so that even I can wipe away from Kumekucha blog records of any hint or trace of neutrality to these general elections i may have displayed in previous months gone by-who am i to foolishly be aloof bystanding the most exhausting elections of all time even the pollsters are tired they can't count right anymore-i hereby renounce my indifference and offer up for grabs the bid of my vote to either the highest or lowest scorer of the next Steadman polls if any such poll will be held before December 27th. I will blow their trumpet highly both on and off this blog one love
i have been letting my country down and withouth sampling me Steadman is making all sorts of mistakes in her calculations

Anonymous said...

These elections were never about Raila, they are about Kibaki; something many people from Central Province still don't get. Simply put; Kenyans DON'T WANT Kibaki. They don't trust him, they don't believe him, they don't want him period. Raila is simply a vehicle to deliver the protest. You only have to look at zero impact the disproportionate amounts of money, energy, promises and propaganda have had on Kibaki's popularity to understand that this is not an ordinary election.

Just what haven't PNU tried? They worked overtime to inject suspicion and confusion into the majimbo debate, wheeled out 'coup widows', even got the Catholic Church and Satanists to give them a hand, thought they had Raila by the proverbials after the nomination fiasco, dished out districts, 'hiked' teachers salaries, vilified Raila's MoU, printed the equivalent of Karura forest in propaganda leaflets....and much more. About the only thing they haven't done to Raila is put him up for a Guiness Book record award for the most propagandad (lol) politician in the southern hemisphere. ALL to no avail.

This is bigger than Raila, much, much bigger – it is the anger of a nation. Like most Kenyans, I wish Kibaki a nice Christmas and happy retirement!

Taabu said...

Luke Steadman must be a HE. The findings are so INCREDIBLE you cannot attribute them to originate from a fairer sex. On your vote, you rather keep it under wraps and hypothtically boast of its valuerather than auctining it to scoundrels. The scoundrels will not only come for your vote but they will SHRED your heart too, trust me. Please don't dare, keep WHOLE.

kalamari said...

Chris, as you must already be expecting, all the PNU gunslingers will ignore the aspect of your poll that targeted the down and out ordinary Kenyans. Brace yourself for a barrage of ridicule for disclosing a 30% Raila lead. So far, in my own bar polls, Raila is up by 79% (and I don't drink in Umoja). Now I know you are not a statistician, but it is highly unlikely that your poll is incorrect. As for Steadman and the rest, it will take a couple of elections for them to regain their credibility.
FACT: In highly developed countries, the voter turn out among the poor is always very low while that of the rich/middle class is relatively very high. In developing/stagnant countries, the voter turn out among the poor is very high while that of the rich/middle class is relatively very low.
-While Chris took the above fact into account in administering his self-rejected poll, Steadman and the rest of the pollsters who've been whipped, slapped and punched at State House did not.

Ok. Now for some housekeeping.

Yvonne, I'm a little bit confused. KAZI IENDELEE is the PNU slogan. Based on how they are running their campaign, it is also their rallying call to arms. Going by the contents of your comments, it is fair to assume that Kibaki will not be sitting in your living room any time soon. Now unless, you are the master of sarcasm, you probably mean to say, KAZI IANZE SASA (the ODM slogan that has refused to catch on). In the very least, you must mean Kazi Iendelee? …with a question mark.

Alex, welcome back. The stakes are high my brother. You will be doing Kibaki/Moi a disservice if you strongly believe in them, PNU and the cabinet but still choose to duck or call for boycotts. If you hang in here long enough, you will realize that the main agenda here is geared towards a better Kenya….which can come in many ways but more so through CHANGE or a maintenance of the STATUS QUO. Slowly but surely some people have abandoned the status quo way of thinking and are now strongly supporting the 'lower case change' in Kalonzo….to the bitter end. Some cute and proud under 18s will convince you to sit on the fence leaning towards PNU while some old wise men are horseless even though they distaste everything that characterizes PNU. Some will not relent to show you their wallets so you can believe how they have prospered within the last few years. All in all we all want a better Kenya. Stick around.

Phil, ebu explain what Kalonzo is up to on the 12th. I've heard some rumors but from very unreliable sources.

Kioko, wewe ni mshenzi mpaka driving school ulipelekwa boarding. Better yet, kichwa yako ni biggy sana mpaka ukidream, unawatch movies.

luke said...

Mwalimu i am fed up! since when did telling the truth become a LUXURY in our country? Even a simple thing like a conducting opinion poll should be straightforward but instead what do we get?convenient number-fiddling for the sake of a bunch of ROGUES!indeed polling will never be the same again in the eyes of many people-if someone asks me "how many times do you perform miracles in your own home?" what is so hard about simply counting the number of times i say i perform miracles in my own house from the answers i give coming out of my mouth? but trust Kenyans to let the cancer of CORRUPTION sneak into and poison every big or little thing we do even ordinary things in everyday life like mathematics and addition and counting. we confuse everybody when and because we are confused ourselves.
When i say i want to give away my vote don't mistake my motives for pure e-motion; i don't e-sulk like other people. it is a protest vote i am giving to the highest poll scorer before December 27th because likely the first will be last and the last first in the real poll
Chris why don't you conduct a poll right here in Kumekucha to see how many people actually know how to count from 1-10 and backwards again without making a mistake?Education is free now in school maybe someone is in need and we can help them discover disability

Vikii said...

Vikii has been wrong. Raila is leading and I now support Kumekucha and Kalamari. I and my cousin's sister did a poll last week and the results are as follows:

Raila----79.25%
Kibaki----14.5%
Kalonzo----6.25%

I will, just like those brothers who have taken advantage of the free education vote for either the first 80% (chance of me doing so) or the last (20% chance). Vikii ameamua

Can I see smiles people?

Tom said...

The polls are accurate and the myth that Raila is at 60% is easily disproved. Firstly, four separate pollsters are putting the gap at 4%. Secondly, during the referendum, virtually the whole country save for Central and parts of Eastern voted against the referendum. The result - 57% vs 43%. Removing the Kamba vote from the 57% (because they are now voting for Kalonzo), that brings down the 57% down to anything from 50 to 47% (assuming Kalonzo's 10% is composed of 70-100% of Kamba votes). Unlike the referendum, Kibaki has more support in Western, Rift Valley (with the Moi factor), Nairobi, Gusii and Coast (Shirikisho) and christians scared of the muslim MOU. That lowers the 47-50% count even further. A 4% gap is within the polls’ margin of error meaning the polls are a statistical dead heat. And with the advantage of incumbency, Kibaki actually has the edge.

Anonymous said...

tom did you really participate during the referendum? I highly doubt. Your argument that Kibaki support in Western, RV, Nairobi and Gusii has improved stand challenge. Western there is the Mudavadi factor and the succession issue. In RV moi is no longer a factor. In Gusii the Nyanza solidarity is at play.

Please also note that most of the new voter registration is in ODM strongholds.

Anonymous said...

FOR ONCE I AGREE WITH TOM...IT IS LOGIC...

Anonymous said...

tom, you are one very illogical fellow!

If you insist the polls are accurate and that indeed the gap between Raila and Kibaki is 4% then how come you end up concluding the Kibaki actually has the edge? The figures should speak for themselves. Why do you go about analysing the figures of the referendum yet we know that this time round we have real faces and parties on the ballot and not just orange and banana?
Your analysis of the referendum results make no sense at all because you assume that the pollsters interviewed different people from the ones who voted in the referendum.
If indeed the polls are accurate then Raila has an edge with about 4% and any statistician will tell you that opinion polls mostly favour the incumbent more than the challenger!

John Oilepo

salf said...

The polls show that there is a 0.04 percent difference between Kibaki and Raila(46% - 42%). If you assume a 10million turnout, that will be a 400K votes difference. I do not think that is a significant difference, a difference to be proud of. Let us see what 27th has in store.

Total Man! said...

Well Raila is poised to win but not by a difference of 30%! Atmost 10%.Kibaki is losing because of his own lucklastre approach to politics! How, i pray, with the privilege of a 'mock exam' (Referendum) could he afford to go back and sleep. Now he is failing the very questions he failed in the mocks! Aliregarega wacha he carries his own cross!

Anonymous said...

400k may be what it takes to win in a close race like this. It did not stop Moi from continuing in the State House.

29 December 1997 Presidential Election
Registered Voters 9,000,000 (approx.)

Total Valid Votes
6,096,479

Candidate (Party) Number of Votes

Daniel arap Moi (KANU) 2,445,801
40.12%
Mwai Kibaki (DP) 1,895,527
31.09%
Raila Odinga (NDP) 665,725
10.92%
Michael Wamalwa (FORD-K) 505,542
8.29%
Charity Ngilu (SDP) 469,807
7.71%
Martin Shikuku (FORD-A) 36,302
0.60%
Katama Mkangi (KNC) 23,484
0.39%
George Anyona (KSC) 16,294
0.27%
Kimani wa Nyoike (FORD-P) 8,564
0.14%
Koigi wa Wamwere (KENDA) 7,463
0.12%
Munyua Waiyaki (UPPK) 6,103
0.10%
Godfrey M' Mwereria (GAP) 4,555
0.07%
Wangari Maathai (LPK) 4,133
0.07%
Stephen Oludhe (EIP) 3,653
0.06%
David Waweru Ng’ethe (UMMA) 3,526
0.06%

======================

29 December 1992 Presidential Election Registered Voters
7,900,000 (approx.)
Candidate (Party) % of Votes

Daniel arap Moi (KANU) 36.3%

Kenneth Matiba (FORD-A) 26.0%

Mwai Kibaki (DP) 19.5%

Oginga Odinga (FORD-K) 17.5%

Chibule wa Tsuma (KNC) 0.7%

George Anyona (KSC)
Harun Mwau (PICK)
Mukaru Nganga (KENDA)

Anonymous said...

On the request of moi, through uhuru, a group of Mungiki adherent fighters are being transported to Rift Valley and in particular Kuresoi to punish people opposed to his idea of Kibaki Tena. The first group is currently in Naivasha in an Isuzu track KAB 310E. A second group is to be dispatched in the evening to cause fresh chaos in Nandi. Kenyans are dying for a mistake that is not theirs. Help stop this regardless of your political stand. It could be your mum, dad, bro or siz kesho. Source: Capitalfm and kissfm

Regards
Mjombaa

Yvonne said...

Kalamari i have always said Kazi iendelee coz that is what everybody wants to hear. I am walking the streets of Nairobi i see a person and they tell you kazi iendelee then you are left wondering. Man what do you have to show? Nothing People must be specific ni kazi aina gani itaendelea? Ufisadi hapana, ukabila hapana, umamluki hapana, Uwongo, hapana, ukarabati hapana the work that must continue next year is usawa wa kijinsia, uzalendo, ugawaji sawa wa raslimali na kutohusika na ufisadi. A question i always ask people - What if it was Kibaki Vs Tuju will guys in Central vote for Tuju? Kibaki is not welcomed in My sitting room in that he promised me an apple but he gave me a pear. So i just can't trust him and as One Mwenda J said Accountability is the key

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