Saturday, June 16, 2007

Predictions On Election Results Against What Is Happening Behind The Scenes

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Last night 2002 presidential elections runner up Uhuru Kenyatta officially pulled out of the ODM presidential nominations by missing the deadline to present his nomination papers.

Readers of Kumekucha can't have been too surprised at this development. It is just further confirmation that Kanu has different plans for the forthcoming elections even as ODM insiders struggle to ensure that the oldest political party in the land remains within ODM.

The ODM high command hastily accepted the 40:40:20 demand from Kanu and immeditately welcomed two more Kanu members into the highest decision making body of the party. The demand by Kanu that they field their own parliamentary and civic candidates was however rejected. If you remember this demand was at the core of Uhuru's damands because, as he put it, Kanu has to retain its' identity and not get swallowed up by this giant animal called ODM.

So! What next?

It seems that it will be difficult for Kanu to avoid splitting into two different camps. Those who will remain in ODM and those who will go back to "mama na baba." Any possible coalitions will only be formed after the elections and after the constitution has been amended to allow for them.

It seems that the splinter group that will remain in Kanu will be led by William Ruto and the one that will leave will be led by Uhuru Kenyatta. The big question analysts are now asking is which group will be more powerful?

Now I know that I am talking to a lot of ODM diehard supporters, but ladies and gentlemen let us put away our party affiliations and emotions for now and analyze the situation coldly. By the way, that is the only way you can get to be a good political analyst because this is really not the place to drum up support for your preferred presidential candidate.

To answer the question I have just asked, we need to look at Rift Valley soberly. Who will stick with Moi and Uhuru and who will go with Ruto? To be honest that is a very difficult question but I think it is fair to agree with what most analysts say, which is that Moi and Uhuru's group will consist mostly of older Kalenjins and will be weaker. This had better be true because after the Narc and ODM nominations are completed, Kanu will gain a lot of strength from the rebels who will come trooping in from both sides of the divide. Actually whatever you think of Kanu, those guys are smart. That is why they exploited and robbed us blind for over 40 years. Kanu has positioned itself perfectly to gain a lot of power from both Narc and ODM.

Let me remind you of what happened in 2002. It is a fact that many of the defections from Kanu that year could not stand NAK (The Kibaki-Wamalwa-Ngilu axis.) However they had no problem joining Raila's LDP. Just think of many prominent parliamentary candidates who may end up missing nominations in either Narc-Kenya or ODM. The vast majority will not be comfortable crossing to the other party and anyway those parties will already have completed their nomination process. Mark my words, Kanu nominations will be carried out last and they have the perfect excuse, because the circus in ODM and Narc Kenya will continue until the 11th hour which will be the perfect timing for Kanu to withdraw and go it alone.


N.B. At least two separate predictions so far (one from a pastor and genuine man of God who has always got it right since 1992) say that President Kibaki will lose the forthcoming elections. However it is the second prophecy which has been widely circulated via email and is from a man I don't know which has caught the eye of many. According to that prediction the presidential race this time will be very close between two candidates (President Kibaki not included) that it will be difficult to say who the winner will be. But even more interesting, they predict that Kanu will re-emerge as a very strong political force. The political situation currently is very fluid and anything can happen, but this prediction seems to confirm what is going on currently behind the scenes with Kanu, which I have reported here, in great detail.

I know there are a lot of you guys out there who are rabid Kanu-haters but it seems that this will be the party to watch, at least now and for the next few months.


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12 comments:

  1. Yes. said before. Kanu will decide the destiny of the forthcoming election. any move, not by Rutto, Kosgey and other small fish will count. It is Uhuru Kenyatta. He holds the key.

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  2. Chris, kindly pass this sad message. Kenya lost to Eritrea. And let the brickbats on Jacob Mulee begin

    The Eritrean national soccer team scored a 1-0 victory against its Kenyan counterpart in the African Qualifier Championship 2008 games in Ghana. The match took place in Asmara today.

    It is to be recalled that in the first leg of the game, the Eritrean team met with the Kenyan team in Nairobi three months ago and scored a 2-1 victory.

    The latest score places Eritrea in the second group next to Angola with 8 points. The last and decisive match of the Eritrean team would be with the Swaziland national team in Swaziland.

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  3. Thanks Chris and Derek, but I have to disagree with you on this issue.

    The 40-40-20 accord was agreed upon in Naivasha ages ago. It was just an issue of implementation. Now that it has been implemented, Uhuru suddenly wants his colleagues to "clarify" if ODM is a party or a coalition, yet he himself having accepted to join ODM midway is fully aware that this is a united political party (Uhuru was part of the demonstrators to demand for its registration at the AGs chambers) with a manifesto, fully fledged secretariat and registered party officials. Its formation during the orange referendum campaigns and its eventual registration is in public knowledge. And the key word here is UNITY, and not identity as Uhuru wants to convince us. ODM is a classic case of willing political partners coming together to fight a common objective.

    Uhuru is well aware he stands no chance in a fair party nomination contest, having himself been a recipient of KANU's ticket without democractic nomination in 2002. Moi and cronies are also well aware that the demise of KANU will bring down the protective wall of cover that has been shielding them from being answerable to economic crimes and other atrocities that happened during KANU's 40 years in power. This is music to Kibaki's ears. NARK-K wants to see a divided ODM, and assemble as much MPs as possible in the so called GNU.

    When Uhuru says KANU has options - he may well be saying Uhuru, as an individual, has options. Delegates will always troop to town, so long as ther allowances are paid and they recieve free transport from their homes. His own KANU NEC overuled him during the NDC, as the resolutions were not he wanted. The reality on the ground is that, I dont think KANU as a corporate body can be part of a ruling coalition government, let alone its candidate winning the presidential race. And if you listened to Uhuru's recent utterances then you will have noted that he is clearly positioning himself and his party for post election negotiations with the ruling party, something similar to what FORD-K and FORD-P are presently doing in Kibaki's bloated cabinet. Going by each political party's constititution, this is illegal and irregular, because it will disrupt parliamentary business and make an a** of multi-party politics.

    My take is that Uhuru, just like any other smart politician, has a PLAN B outside ODM and KANU. And that plan B is DP which he has continuosly financed between himself and Saitoti. Both of these two individuals have botomless financial resources, they both have presidential ambitions and have serious misgivings in their current parties. They can easily form a formidable political force between them.

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  4. Dishonesty and lack of integrity is what can sum up all these political theatrics. But hey wait a minute, who said the two virtues are politicaly bankable? You guess right and in my book I still maintain its PAYBACK TIME. It seems time heals all wounds except those inflicted by the poltical sword.

    Uhuru is playing around with words to sound credible and so far so good for him. But you can't fail to see the plasticity in all these. The guy need to remain relevant and he is not naive so he will clutch to ant straw to stay a float. All these chaps (politicians) play in the same league only shirts differ in colour. It is deceit galore and shameless contempt of Kenyans' intelligence. But not for long since our collective inteeligence cannot be undermined for ever.

    We haven't seen anything yet. The coming months will see a multiplicity of political motions with no commensurate movements. In essense Kenya is simply going round in neat circles. Meanwhile Emilio and Toro are safe as they ekkp us stuck to the old ways albeit through proxies.

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  5. 'Dishonesty' sums up what you people are writing here. It is important to analyse the depth of what Uhuru is saying with a little bit of something different from short-sightedness. You are so focussed on an individual winning the ODM nominations to an extent that you refuse to reason.

    Can anyone tell me which of the points raised by Uhuru is not valid. Ask nursery school kids and they will tell you that the ODM was supposed to be a coalition of the LDP, KANU,The Labour party of Kenya and other like minded parties. Granted, somewhere in the middle of the long journey, a clique of crooks within the ODM imposed the idea of a hybrid system upon members of parliament. And that is exactly what Uhuru is saying. I remember William Ruto so vividly when he said that KANU will be putting forward his name and that of the chairman to square it out with LDP's Kalonzo, Raila and Mudavadi. What prompted the change of mind. Someone is tryng to take others for granted here.

    The group that so passionately favours the hybrid system, sorry-the individual membership coalesces around Raila Amolo Odinga. If my memory serves me right, this is the very same individual who together with Charity Ngilu were the loudest in reminding everybody who cared to listen that NARC was a coalition and everybody who claimed otherwise was attempting to give them a raw deal. You do not have to be above average to see the double standards at play here. I can tell you for free that the only difference between then and now is that Raila knew someone else was in charge of power and if he agreed on individual membership, he will be thrown into oblvion within the big mix. Now he THINKS he is in charge of ODM and that is why he looks the other side everytime someone mentions the word coalition. Raila Odinga and his disciples is trying to shortchange his colleagues within ODM just as Kiraitu Murungi tried to shortchange his colleagues within NARC. The latter was stopped in his tracks then and nothing short of the same treatment should be accorded the former now.

    The issue is not about Uhuru realizing he cannot win the ODM nominations. A rather curious line of thinking is developing among ODM supporters that whoever wins the ODM nomination will be on his way to statehouse the following day for the swearing in ceremony. Winning the presidency of kenya is not that simple. We are talking about capturing state power which is something completely different from winning the ODm noination. One, I do not know what criterion one uses to come up with such a blanket conclusion, and two, even if that were true, there are people within ODM who can buy victory at the nomination stage only to go ahead and treat us to a one-sided electoral contest.

    And people, I thought Uhuru was only of sentimental value a few months ago, How come people are now giving the old "No Comment" answer when asked about the same. We talk so much omly for us to be forced to eat our words.

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  6. Well said Vikii. The truth is the common thread running and joining all Kenyan politicians is dishonesty. Each camp only claims slanted objectivity with his eyes singularly trained on the price. They hunted, cooked and digested Uhuru's goose now is PAYBACK time I repeat. UK is not a fool and had to come up with 'CREDIBLE' reasons even if he was part of the gang camping at the AG office for ODM's registration as a PARTY complete with a consititution right? Our political memory is that sharp and steady brother. And the clock is ticking to December as they collectively mouth nothing.

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  7. Vikii, perhaps Uhuru should just come out openly and declare his candidature on a KANU or DP ticket. Democracy is all about making choices, and ODM is just but a choice. He should not play with our intelligence and neither should you try to justify an open lie. As an individual who has attended countless ODM rallies in Nairobi and elsewhere over the last two years, I can confidently tell you what Uhuru is saying now is very different from what he said over the last two years. (I can quote him if need be). His support for ODM has always been luke warm. He now risks suffering the same fate as Mudavadi who once also abandoned the Rainbow team to support this very same liability called Uhuru. Uhuru is purporting to raise points, thats fine, but in reality who should have the answers if not himself? How come Uhuru on one hand, and Ruto and the KANU NEC on the other hand are talking a different language? It is as if Raila is a KANU delegate!

    What value is he, as Uhuru, adding to ODM? For instance, how many referendum votes did he bring to the orange side from his region? Or better still why is the country Kenya so polarised? What has been Uhuru's performance (and that of his shadow cabinet) as leader of official opposition in parliament? It makes us wonder where he could have led this country to had he been elected head of State. Uhuru was in the thick of things during the ODM metamorphosis, right? I call it political rhetoric and a very clever scheme of tribalism! His 2007 dilemma in Gatundu is well known. But I dont sympathise.

    On the other hand, I cant help but notice your open and unwarranted dislike for Raila. You try to portray Raila as a dictator and uncompromising individual in ODM. Unfotunatelly for you, history credits Raila (and his father before him) for the installation of Mwai Kibaki as the 3rd and Jomo Kenyatta as 1st heads of state respectively. History further credits Raila as a one of the central players in the 2nd liberation of Kenya and formation of ODM. It further credits him, without a question, for introducing coalition politics in multi-party era. However, according to you, when it comes to Raila expressing an interest in the presidency himself, it appears he is doing so undeservedly. It is as if only a select group of Kenyans are meant to seek the presidency. I have read you post twice and I regret I did not see any credibility in your sworn defence for Uhuru and unprovoked attack on Raila, and am glad only a handful of you see competitive democracy in negative light. It is as if Raila is a KANU delegate! You only see Raila's "wrongs" but never Kalonzo's or Kibaki's. Why the bias Vikii? I may ask is it the tribal card? Or just the usual phobia? Please understand that opposition have a very important role to play in democracy. Kibaki has been busy destroying opposition so as to survive his term.

    Contrary to your Kiraitu Murungi comparison to Raila, I remind you the original NARC dream was based on a gentleman's agreement (infamous MOU). Unfortunately, Raila, just like his father before him, was used as a stepping stone by very dishonest people to ascend to power. Taking dishonesty further, and as if MOU trashing was not enough, we remember the Kibaki myriad of pre-election pledges with deep regret. How many of the them have been met 5 years down the line?

    Vikii, I want to put it to you that for the first time in the history of our young democracy; ODM, courtesy of Raila and others, is in the process of conducting presidential primaries. Unlike your Kibakis, Mois and Senior Kenyattas, wananchi will nominate their preferred presidential candidate at political party level. We are smart to know that some fellows within and without the ODM are hell bent on sabotaging this process for obvious reasons. They want status quo to remain. These are the same fellows who sabotaged the Bomas process (Vikii, where was delegate Kalonzo on the last day of voting at Bomas?) and they are the same characters who have unfounded fears of Raila winning an ODM ticket. Poleni sana

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  8. Vicky, what's all this with Raila this Raila that!? Hata jogoo ikipanda kuku, ni Raila. Raila refused to comment because, one, he had gone to mourn Oneko, and two, he did not want to engage UK in a shouting match. What value does UK add to ODM anyway? Let's be sincere with ourselves guys. Let's not pretend to be naive. Uhuru's stay in ODM only makes ODM have that "National" face. Otherwise, everyone knows where Central Kenya will vote. All the same, I don't want to be quoted as supporting the wars among ODM presidential candidates. And guys, Kalonzo seems to support UK's position. Okay, let's take a hypothetical situation where ODM accepts to push forward the nomination until this is sorted out. Don't you think it will be the same KM who will shout himself hoarse that ODM needs to hold its nominations ASAP! UK has never been comfortable in ODM simply because Ruto came first. And Vikki, I hope some day you will see something good in Raila!

    Always, Dan.

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  9. Oh yeah. I have argued here before that I am not blind to Raila Odinga's good side. If I cannot respect Raila's bravety at the hands of club and tear gas canisters wielding policemen, then I have no respect for anyone. The guy has his own share of contribution to political liberalisation in Kenya. Raila Odinga was the most visible politician on the ground in the last election. This, even UK himself recently said Raila traversed the country more than hin and considering he was not himself running, then I can only say thumbs up for the old man.

    Having said that, I must point out the need to counter what I have said against him with facts. Stop evading the question. Did Raila support strengthening of constituent parties a couple of years ago? Does Raila Odinga prefer weak constituent parties now. Answer those two and hence or otherwise explain the inconsistency.


    Granted, I have said some unflattering things about him but I can challenge anyone here to write one single thing I have said about him that is not true. I am on the other hand waiting for a similar invitation about untruths written and championed by the same holier than thou souls against kalonzo and Kibaki. Sample this, there was a snap that you felas used to circulate here of Kalonzo and Bishop Deya. U wrote a hundred and one articles about this photo and said anything your minds could conceive at that time. When it was officially announced that deya was actually one of Raila's biggest financiers, u went mum. How many pictures of Raila and Deya do u think I have in my possession? Who between me and the Raila faithfuls here is applying double standards? Phil and Chris have said kalonzo practices witchcraft. Well I dont want to get to that level of discussion but I must say that the press conference u guys quote him defending Kamba Mps against the same took place in your minds. I can publish the Nation newspaper containing tuju's claims about the human sacrifices done in Nyanza by Raila Odinga. Let us go to all these heights and prove to the other readers who is a bigger propagandist than who.

    Mr. phil with all due respect for you, u are teliing me lies here. Raila did not introduce coalition politics in the multi party era. i know you are talking about the New kanu thing but I am sure u know as much as i do that he was bought into Kanu and we all know the price paid. I would rather credit ngilu with that feat. Second liberation, I agree with you and I have dedicated the first paragraph to him. About making Kibaki president, dont u think that is weird? Why did he not offer himself as a candidate? If he made the Ngilus, Wamalwas, Saitotis, Ntimamas and Kalonzos to back kibaki then he surely must have had the same authority to have them back him. He really liked Kibaki than himself, dont u think so? George Saitoti, for example would have made a more formidable candidate than raila but we never hear his supporters claiming credit for Kibaki's triumph. Kibaki is not another Najib Balala or Mudavadi. The same guy had run against Raila five years before and scored 300% of what Raila scored.

    About me tribal-hating the luos, Mr. phil I must tell you that that was a very unwarranted attempt at character ssasination. I have written countless articles here urging people to shun this tribal talk. I dont just play that game and I am sorry if that is what u think of me.
    The current number one gal in my list is actually from the lake, but i dont want to become another chris. Let us stroll out of this small box where people think disapproving Raila is disapproving the luo nation. I am a known sycophant of Lumumba and Orengo and are they not luos? You owe me an apology on that particular one bro.

    And one last thing phil, Kalonzo was at bomas on the said day and he voted along with his LDP colleagues. It is how half researched your 'facts' are coz I know you talking about the voting in pariament. The Bomas process was supposed to be a people-driven one and that is why he didnt care what his boss felt about his stand. When voting in parliament was conducted, it was about opposing a government sponsored motion and Kalonzo was under oath to support all government motions. Get the difference please. There were only three options for him,resign from government and vote with the opposition, vote with the government or simply abstain. He chose the least radicle of the three.Lawyers are supposed to defend the law and not to violate it.

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  10. No, Kalonzo did not abstain from voting on the said day, he suddenly developed a runny stomach (wonder what caused it) and ran away to the toilets to attend to matters more urgent than voting on the draft constitution.

    Don't try to revise history, Mr. Vikii. If Kalonzo had abstained, he would have been at the floor of the house and registered his abstension. the guy was simply nowhere to be seen when voting time came even though he had been there during debating time. come voting time, he just chickened out and disappeared into thin air.

    And some basic civics lesson for you Vikii because it appears your understanding of this is thin indeed. there is no such thing as a government position on constituion making. position vis-a-vis what? against the people of Kenya? in that case the honourable thing would have been to resign, obviously your darling Kalonzo is not so principled after all. the ministerial post meant a lot to him, much more than the rights of the people of Kenya.


    GENIUS

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  11. Hey Vikii, pole sana for assasinating your character. I certainly didnt mean it to come that way bro.

    Which constituent parties are you referring to here? ODM or NARC, because both of these are fully fledged political parties (although the speaker chooses to ignore this), and as Kajwang reminded us jana, a political party cannot be affiliated to another political party like Uhuru wants us to believe. There is nothing like a NARC or ODM constituent party.

    Another thing, Bomas was made of delegates - not MPs, not Cabinet ministers, not Chruch leaders, etc. Those who walked out with government are known to this day.

    As far as I can remember, Raila was the only member of cabinet who voted for the Bomas draft, the rest having walked out on Kiraitu's orders or evaded the day's seesion all together. How sad, kalonzo was not in the hall that day, yet he was a delegate as MP for Mwingi North.

    Chris, sorry but I have to re-print these articles here for the benefit of Vikii.

    ==========================================================
    Tuesday March 22, 2005

    Civil Service boss, Raila clash over law review
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    By Martin Mutua


    Raila

    A wide rift emerged between Cabinet minister Raila Odinga and the Head of the Civil Service, Mr Francis Muthaura, yesterday over the Government’s position on the constitution review process.

    Muthaura dismissed as misleading, Raila’s declaration that the Government had no collective position on the review process.

    The Roads minister had said that statements by Justice and Constitutional Affairs minister Kiraitu Murungi on the process were his personal views.

    But Muthaura said the Government’s position on the process was clearly spelt out in the Constitutional Review Amendment Act 2004.

    He also said that Kiraitu, by virtue of his portfolio, spoke on behalf of the Government on Constitution matters.

    "It is therefore inaccurate to portray the honourable minister as expressing personal opinion on matters of the Constitution," he added.

    "The Government would like to clarify a misleading statement made by one of the Cabinet ministers to the media that the Government has no collective position on issues relating to the constitutional review process" he said.

    Yesterday, Raila said he would not be drawn into "engaging civil servants in public debate".

    If there was an issue Muthaura wanted to tell him, he should have written to him formally, rather than communicate through the press.

    "I don’t want to engage civil servants in public debate because I expressed the stand of LDP on the matter and that is the position all LDP ministers hold," he added.

    Raila said Kiraitu’s position on the review process had been rejected at the Bomas conference, where all MPs were delegates.

    "So what sort of democrats are they, who after being rejected by a popular vote they want to force their unpopular views on the people?" he asked.

    Raila also said the consensus Bill, that was recently assented to by the President, never passed through the Cabinet.

    Raila said when he and his Cabinet colleagues were in the opposition, they had clamoured for a people-driven review as opposed to an executive driven process.


    Muthaura

    "That is why millions of shillings were spent and I still stand for a people-driven process and the delegates’ conference at Bomas where all mps were delegates,’ he added.

    He said removing the process from Bomas to bring it to Parliament was like carrying out an "executive coup" on the people.

    "It is not right for the Executive to hijack the process, which Kenyans so gallantly fought for, and this is the position I hold and I have no apologies to make," he added.

    But Muthaura said the Government reached a consensus on the contentious issues and a decision recorded in the Cabinet as per minute number 22/04.

    "The Government position in this regard was presented to the Bomas conference by the Minister for justice and Constitutional affairs. All ministers are party to this position," he said.

    =====================================
    East African Standard Saturday 23/July 2005
    How MPs voted on review

    Standard Team

    Sharp differences in Kanu and a swing vote from Ford Kenya handed the Government victory on draft constitution vote in Parliament, it emerged yesterday.

    Although there were a few surprises on both sides of the House, the final result was not surprising as the Government side had the numbers — thanks to the Government of National Unity that brought into the fold a section of Kanu and Ford People. It also got a boost from Keiyo South MP Nicholas Biwott and his faction of Kanu that is opposed to Uhuru Kenyatta’s leadership.

    There were shifting alliances as the Liberal Democratic Party troops were scuttled, with some

    members absconding from the debate and vote altogether.

    While Ministers Raila Odinga, Najib Balala, Anyang’ Nyong’o and Ochillo Ayacko voted against the motion, some members including Environment Minister Kalonzo Musyoka, did not turn up for the crucial vote.

    Key allies of Raila, Peter Owidi (Kasipul Kabondo), Peter Odoyo (Nyakach), Zaddock Zyongoh (Gwasi) and Sospeter Ojamong (Amagoro) did not turn up for the debate.

    And the Narc Deputy Chief Whip, John Mutinda Mutiso, a key ally of Kalonzo, voted with the Government.

    The Kilome MP had also attended the controversial meeting of Parliament Select Committee retreat in Kilifi that preceded yesterday’s vote.

    Kalonzo yesterday called a press conference to explain why he stayed away. The minister said he could not participate in an illegality.

    It was evident from the onset that the Government side would carry the day and MPs from the Liberal Democratic Party and Kanu dragged the debate in an attempt to stall the vote.

    As Kenyans awoke to news of the vote, the Government, led by President Kibaki, welcomed the result but Kanu and LDP described the Thursday night vote as a fraud.

    Kibaki played down concerns over the amended draft constitution and termed Parliament’s vote for the changes "a wonderful thing."

    Kibaki, speaking in the wake of three days of violent street demonstrations opposing the changes, said the vote had cleared the way for Kenya to get a new constitution.

    "It doesn’t worry me. It’s a wonderful thing…it’s beautiful to debate these things," Kibaki told journalists at State House, Nairobi.

    Making yet another bid to block changes to the draft constitution, Kanu said an amended Bomas draft should not be submitted to the Attorney General because it had not been passed by a resolution of Parliament.

    News of the vote that effectively moves the constitution review to a referendum at which Kenyans will vote to either adopt or reject the new constitution was greeted with outrage by civil society organisations and religious leaders.

    There were also calls for the sacking or resignation of the four Cabinet ministers who voted against the Government motion. Their colleague Mukhisa Kituyi asked President Kibaki to sack the four for going against the spirit of collective responsibility.

    Assistant minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs Njeru Githae also called for the resignation of the ministers, asking how the President could trust them.

    The ministers, who are allied to LDP, voted with opposition Kanu to reject the adoption of changes to the draft constitution recommended by the Parliamentary Select Committee.

    The LDP secretary-general, Mr Joseph Kamotho, said the ministers, who voted against the report did so in their individual capacity as MPs.

    " They were exercising their rights as MPs and not as Cabinet ministers because the constitution does not belong to the Government," said Kamotho.

    Kanu was bruised as Biwott’s faction threw its weight behind the Government. However, some of his key allies, Nick Salat, Paul Sang, Sammy Leshore and Moses Cheboi did not vote.

    Another Kanu group, allied to Special Projects minister Njenga Karume, of Viscount Kimathi, Simeon Lesirma, Mahmoud Mohammed and John Koech (minister), backed the Government.

    Ford Kenya chairman Musikari Kombo marshalled his troops to vote for the report. On this vote, he agreed with even his enemies in the party, Dr Mukhisa Kituyi and Dr Newton Kulundu.

    Prof Christine Mango (Butula) was the only party member who voted against the report.

    The Third Force was split. Danson Mungatana abstained while Kalembe Ndile and Kivutha Kibwana joined Health Minister Charity Ngilu to back the Government.

    Bonaya Godana, Titus Ngoyoni, Abdi Sasura and Guracha Galgalo did not vote. They were recording statements in Marsabit on the massacre of over 80 people by bandits.

    In the final count, the Government won by 102 votes to 61 of a combined force of Kanu and LDP.
    ===============================================
    BBC NEWS
    Kenya's ruling coalition under threat
    By Gray Phombeah
    BBC, Nairobi

    With the new draft constitution in place, it could have been one of most memorable moments in Kenya's history.

    But bitter divisions within the current ruling elite during the constitution-making process seem to have taken an irreparable toll on Kenya's coalition government, 15 months after President Mwai Kibaki and an alliance of opposition parties came to power.

    His National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) won a landslide victory in the December 2002 elections with a pledge to fight widespread corruption and install a new constitution within 100 days.

    The new government replaced that of Daniel arap Moi's Kanu party which was blamed for instituting a culture of corruption and dictatorship that had crippled Kenya's economic development and stunted Kenya's political life for almost four decades.

    Worried nation

    But a sharp rift, exposed a week ago, over a new constitution seeking to curb President Kibaki's power, has now cast fresh doubts over whether the battered coalition will survive its current political crisis.

    The political crisis was sparked by a document presented to a conference convened to write a new constitution, proposing to hand the bulk of those powers to a prime minister.

    It prompted the government to officially withdraw from the conference.

    Not even a casual walk on one of Kenya's posh golf courses a few days later - as President Kibaki emerged from another long absence from the public eye - could re-assure a worried nation that all was well.

    'Bruising battle'

    In an act of defiance, most of the 629 delegates - including three cabinet ministers (RAILA, BALALA, NYONGO) - went ahead and voted to trim presidential powers against the government's wishes, proposing the creation of a prime minister's post after the next elections in 2007.

    CONSTITUTIONAL PROPOSAL
    Elected president appoints PM
    PM appoints cabinet
    PM leads government and chairs cabinet President remains head of armed forces
    The delegates also defied a last minute court order barring the release of the draft constitution to the government and on Tuesday handed it over to the attorney general, Amos Wako - setting the scene for a bruising battle in parliament between coalition MPs supporting the draft and those opposed to it.

    The proposed changes to the constitution require parliament's approval - scheduled in its next sitting beginning 30 March - before they can become law.

    After Moi

    Elsewhere, plunging opinion polls, published on Wednesday by the country's leading media house, left the government more vulnerable than ever.

    58% of those polled said that they supported the creation of a post of an executive prime minister as head of government with a president as head of state.

    Most Kenyans admit that the constitutional crisis was a long time coming.

    They agree that from the beginning, the post-Moi script didn't go the way Mr Kibaki wanted.

    Right from the swearing-in ceremony, cracks in the new leadership - brought about by the jumble of egos, agendas and parties making up the Rainbow Alliance - had begun to show as coalition partners accused President Kibaki of going back on jobs promises when he named his new team of ministers.

    At the same time, Kibaki's laid-back style of government - partly blamed on injuries he sustained in a car crash on a campaign trail in 2002 - didn't help matters.

    His aloofness and his hands-off approach unwittingly gave the impression of a leadership limbo for much of his one-year presidency and fuelled a growing view that he was unsuited for high office.

    Coalition partners

    His critics say he failed spectacularly to end the bitter internal struggle between the main two factions of the Coalition - his National Alliance of Kenya (NAK) and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Raila Odinga.

    Mr Odinga is seen by many as the coalition's strongman who delivered the opposition's victory in 2002 elections.

    His supporters claim he was promised the premiership under a pact signed by coalition partners in the run-up to 2002 elections.

    Even more dangerously for Mr Kibaki, say local analysts, was the way he allowed two ministers allied to him - Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Kiraitu Murungi and Internal Security Minister Chris Murungaru - to run the government machine and antagonise other coalition partners.

    Failed promises

    The knives were out in earnest last week when the long-running feud came to a head at the Bomas of Kenya, the venue of the constitutional talks.

    The delegates - who included coalition MPs - handed the government its first major defeat, sending a strong warning to cabinet ministers close to Kibaki who want the presidency to retain its enormous powers in the new constitution.

    The move served as a wake-call to Mr Kibaki, and on Monday and Tuesday he swiftly summoned leaders of various parties making up the coalition to State House to try and heal the widening rift in his coalition government.

    When in the opposition, Mr Kibaki backed a dilution of presidential powers and creation of a strong prime minister under a new constitution.

    He has now said the new law would take effect in June, although the court action and cabinet infighting suggest that the process could be sabotaged entirely.

    'Grey dawn'

    Analysts say the U-turn after coming to power has reinforced the increasingly widespread perception of Mr Kibaki and his inner circle as a nest of power freaks as bad as those under former president Moi.

    They say the consequences of this dispute for Mr Kibaki and the coalition could be serious.

    Disillusion is already running deep among the majority of Kenyans who - fed up with rising unemployment, crime and graft - voted successfully for the first time for change and not for their ethnic group in the 2002 polls.

    Now the countdown to next month's crucial vote in parliament is on.

    Come the appointed hour, the renegade members of the ruling coalition are expected to push for the reformed constitution, with substantial help from the opposition.

    Whatever the outcome, Kenya could be plunged into a dangerous political crisis.

    One year on, Kenya's new dawn is looking increasingly grey.

    Story from BBC NEWS:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/africa/3565555.stm

    Published: 2004/03/25 11:09:11 GMT

    © BBC MMVII
    ==========================================

    ReplyDelete
  12. What are you writing here Phil? Surely thre is no point in trying to 'copy paste' what I have been trying to teach you for the past one week. I am happy you are fast becoming a good student especially in the area of research. I am happy you now understand the difference between the two voting9 The one in bomas of Kenya and the other one in the Kenya National Assembly. I dont quite understand what purpose the BBC commentry means though. There is a big difference between a report as done by a newspaper and a commentry. The latter is an individual's analysis of a situation. The difference between you and those mashada people who copy paste Makau Mutua's commentaries is increasingly becoming thin Phil. I am sorry I had to say it.

    Anonymous you are way below my league. Get a name first and I will choose to respond to you or not, depending on if you can come up with more original piece. Congrats for ya attempt to catch my attention though.

    ReplyDelete

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