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It could not have happened at a better time. Now those of you who were laughed off and jeered when you shared the Kumekucha analysis on the forthcoming elections have your chance for revenge because chances are that you will meet those guys who laughed at you this weekend.
The news is that Kumekucha has been vindicated and the third force is taking shape right before our very eyes.
Uhuru has now said it all in a thinly veiled threat that was loaded like crazy. He said that even he can form a new alliance if ODM does not play ball. And then we see him tour the Mukuru slums hand in hand with one Kalonzo Musyoka. An interesting aside here is that these slums in the heart of Industrial area, Nairobi have Mukuru Kwa Njenga, Mukuru Kwa Ruben, Mukuru Kwa Ng’anga etc. Interesting names don’t you think?
Anyway, during the tour Kalonzo (always the fence seater, to the last minute makes some good noises in favor of ODM-Kenya) so what was he doing with a Kanu guy at this eleventh hour in the game?
Mark my words, if you want to be a good political analyst, listen to politicians but always digest their utterances with a good pinch of salt and try and read between the lines and always remember that their actions speak much louder than any words they may utter.
But in all my analysis I overlooked one possibility that became very clear yesterday. That Kalonzo’s party (still in the briefcase but soon to emerge) would form an alliance with Kanu rather than Kalonzo having to troop back to “mama na baba.” Let me also remind you all before I forget that the person who first predicted a Kalonzo-Kanu alliance right here in this blog was Kalamari and he deserves to be credited for it. He saw it coming even before I did.
Just to remind you of my earlier analysis, this Kanu coalition/pre-election alliance actually will be the one to watch, because it has positioned itself perfectly to benefit both from the inevitable fall out in ODM and the one in Narc-Kenya. Of course it is strictly not Kanu because it is clear that remnants of Kanu will remain in ODM led by one William Ruto. Now this gets really interesting because word on the street is that Musalia is in this Uhuru alliance while Ngilu will join forces with ODM-Kenya. The reason why I say it is interesting is because Mudavadi’s action means that the Luhya vote will be split three ways with each of the three parties getting something. Ngilu’s action means that the Kamba vote will mostly be split two ways—one half each to both ODM and Narc-Kenya. This is a wonderful thing because it will greatly dilute tribal tensions, emotions, sentiments and voting patterns and force most of the electorate in the affected areas to analyze the candidates individually rather than based on their tribes. This is great news for Kenya.
The mover and shaker and chief strategist behind all this is of course “Baba Gidi”. Ignore this mzeeat your own peril.
Of course the big and very exciting question is can this “contraption” wrest away victory from ODM-Kenya?
Now I hear you ask; Why didn’t I mention Narc Kenya? The reason is that this Uhuru “contraption” is Narc Kenya’s worst nightmare. Whatever armchair analysts say, the Mungiki thing has greatly dented the president’s support in certain areas of Central province especially the expansive Kiambu and parts of Nairobi. The re-entry of Uhuru as a major player in the forthcoming elections can only make things worse. The truth is that most of the votes that Narc Kenya loses will go to the Uhuru alliance. Let me also remind you all that I believe the presidential candidate in the Uhuru alliance will be one Kalonzo Musyoka.
If we can keep violence out of it, there is no doubt that is going to be one of the most exciting political contests in the history of Kenya. It is just sad that we will be mostly recycling the same two-timing greedy two-faced politicians back into office though.
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Right and wrong Chris. The present political movements are just like the shifting sand that eventually end up being blown away with the wind of settle to add to the desert landscape. All the heightened appararent motions is nothing but empty card wielding. These chaps are just testing waters with eyes singularly trained on cutting deald even with the devil to win positions.
ReplyDeleteAnd they ALL do this with us in tow backing all their schemes as moja wetu. We are not there yet and your assertion if predicted demise in tribal tensions is interesting albeit untrue. In contrast the cut throat tribal competition is entering a new phase. This is not predicting doom for our dear motherland but we should all wake up and smell the coffee. Take back our country as you used to champion upto April 2007 before you became pragmatic and decided to be REAL. We are in for very nasty poltical rides these coming few months brothers and sisters.
Chris and Taabu, things are unravelling at a faster pace. I said last week that watch Moi, the Professor. Uhuru, is just talking alot of gas at the moment, it is a high time he came to terms with reality that he does not belong to ODM and cannot and will not win this year. Period. Joining Kalonzo is just another face-saving experience. Missing from that group in one Musalia Mudavadi.
ReplyDeleteWait for another week and see the way we shall be looking a more than three directions, when Chirau Ali Mwakwere scrambles a bunch of extortionist desperados to visit State House in the nation of Coastal Province Pailiamentarians.
But I am just wondering who is causing this confusion, is it Moi or Kibaki. If so, then as the realingment and merger meetings engage a higher gear we look at an isolated Raila Odinga.
I dont hate him. I have voted for him before as an MP and presidential candidate, and send a message to the rest of daydreamers who have believed that he can make it alone. If push comes to shove, he has a few options, say tosha to another person or go it alone and lose with a loud thunder.
For Kalonzo, I think he has also realised, that the bunch of pretenders in the name ODM Elders, made up of people who have already made up their minds, are not the best persons to decide the next president of Kenya, given the 50% chance that ODM has in forming the next governmnet.
Chris, it is painful to say, that it will be the old Kanu regrouping as the Third Force, very different from what Danson Mungatana once called the Third Progressive Force. This is just the third force, equally made of dillussioned personalities wearing politician tags.
Brothers and sisters, including Chris, have ever thought of this. That Frederick Fidelis Omulo Gomu is charged with the task of chairing a Council that will decide who the next Kenyan president will be. Sad moment for Kenya. I would rather a TOSHA declaration in Uhuru Park. I lose a sleep when I think of this.
ReplyDeleteChris ,this is another one of your many analytical miscues. Most of what you have predicted here has turned out to be the exact opposite. You may be gifted with many other strengths but one thing you are not is a political code reader.
ReplyDeleteI will remind you of the lies you published here that all ODM presidential candidates apart from Kalonzo Musyoka had agreed to back down for raila a couple months ago. i told you then that there were four presidential candidates that can never stomach having Raila as their presidential candidate.They were Kalonzo, Uhuru, Julia Ojiambo and Nazlin Umar. There is no way either in this world or the next that Uhuru Kenyatta can be in a party whose official presidential candidate is Raila Odinga. I honestly expected you to see that particular one.
Last week or thereabout you told us Kalonzo was joining KANU. This is an individual who has played high stakes politics for close to twenty years and you expect him to make such a goof, which average Kenyan doesnt know that KANU as a political party is unelectable? Come on Chris and stop this hypothesis testing.
Today, you are at it again and I must tell you that this one as well, is as off-the-mark as they come. Kalonzo is fighting it out in the ODM and you better believe it. He is almost becoming gramophous with the assertion that everyone should be prepared to take the war to its logical conclusion. In the event that Kwach and Nyong'o decide to try out some cleverness, then Kalonzo will vie on the LDP or some other party.He has said that he is not quitting ODM unless the nominations are 'overwhelmingly unjust'. That still stands bro.
Your assertion that William Ruto will remain in ODM is also queer. Ruto is not known for begging GSU officers and just like Uhuru he is not about to start doing it. Ruto's pet subject for the last two months has been picking " a candidate that can beat Kibaki". If you really know how to read between the lines then you know who can beat Kibaki and who cant. If you know, then just remember that Ruto knows better than you.
I didnt get the bit where you said if Musalia quits ODM then the luhya vote will be split into three. If he were to quit(which he can never even think of) then ODM can get less than 5% of the luhya vote. With him in the mix already and assuming he is not the candidate, then ODM can expect a maximum of 30%. The reason I am saying Musalia can never think of leaving Raila is obvious. This is just like expecting Uhuru to leave Moi in 2002. You see regardless of what the standard and other 'political analysts' write, Musalia is nothing more than a political light weight. if he were to get out of Raila's wings, then Cyrus jirongo would take him back to class for POLITICS 101. Even the group that keeps bringing up the subject of compromise candidate (which in esence means Musalia) should know better than to think that Kenyans, having rejected the rule by proxy system in 2002,are ready for the same this time round. In short Musalia should just stay with Raila, that is where he belongs.
Charity Ngilu? Usinifanye nicheke. Having her is of sentimental value coz she will be so busy in Kitui Central that she will not even remember who the presidential candidates are. Ngilu's goose is cooked as my teacher Taabu likes to say. Anybody wasting time courting her may as well check out for Kalembe Ndile. Their value is currently at par.
My prediction is that William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta will rally behind Kalonzo. This will be purely for negitiation purposes with Kibaki after the elections. Kibaki will need them as much as they will need him. If that happens and it will, unless Raila reads the writing on the wall, then it will be Kibaki, Kalonzo, Raila in that order.
I have also been wrong before.
We all know politics is a 'dirty game' but I am still struck by some so called political 'heavyweights' in Kenya. It seems obvious that there are those politicians who know full well they cannot win the presidency, even if they were to be the single opposition candidate. They also know their individual positions as MPs seriously hangs in the balance come the next general elections. I look at what the likes of Uhuru and Kombo are doing, and I ask myself; does KANU or FORD-K have any realistic hopes in producing the next president of Kenya? While appreciating the freedom of assembly, we must also ask what value are tribal and/or briefcase parties adding to our democracy?
ReplyDeleteHaving known their fate is precarious, they now arrogate themselves imagined roles and unofficial spokesmen for certain non existent political groupings. I now must say, I give full credit to Kibaki for his political modus operandi. I may not agree with him when he poaches from opposition benches (dirty game) or when he makes skewed public appointments, but he certainly displays high standards of statemanship when compared to the likes of Kalonzo and Uhuru. In the current dispensation, perhaps only Saitoti ranks close to the president when it comes to exhibiting political maturity.
Most Kenyans will never know why Moi and Co. ever want to remain in control of KANU and the government to a certain extent. There are plenty of skeletons in KANU's closet and they fear an independent government may open up these cupboards. And, unfortunately for Kenyans, they have placed the current government in a position that it can never fulfill its pledge in fighting corruption and ensuring justice prevails for all. Having 5 or more presidential candidates is not only a mockery of multi-party politics but also leaves Kenya severely short-changed in terms of improving issues of governance. In my view, it only promotes tribalism!
My view is that ODM should assemble well balanced provincial delegates and have them determine, through a secret ballot, a single ODM candidate. This is the only way the majority of the people will accept to vote for the overall winner of their respective parties. Even then, Kenyans themselves must not let up on demands for a new constitution. The review process must be on the time table for whichever group is going to form the next government because it is the current constitution that is creating the circus in our national politics - and the single ODM candidate must make this issue the first priority in its pre-election pledges.
I agree with what Phil proposes-Absolutely. We need to go back to the basics. From the very beginning Kalonzo was of the view that the party's presidential candidate should be picked by the people of Kenya and the election of tyhat candidate has to be conducted by the ECK. You see, William Ruto, Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi were vehemently anti, of course for absolutely obvious reasons. I have heard so much noise from the less noble minds of how the ODM is about to trail-blaze in deocratic party nominations that are participatory. Now if that is not a fallacy, then nothing is. You see one of the reasons I so much admire Kenneth Matiba is because he seems to be the only one who has faith in the electorate. He tried to educate Oginga Odinga on the need to seek the mandate of running for president on FORD's ticket from the peopl of Kenya. The lattter categorically refused to play ball prompting the 'let the people decide' clarion call. Shikuku was beaten hands down to the FORD Asili ticket and that was the only reason he felt obligated to support Matiba, it was the people's verdict after all. That was ODM needs to go through if it hopes to retain any credibility____Free and fair participatory nominations officiated by an independent body.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I will appeal to people to educate me on the meaning of a 'statesman'. In my opinion ,this is one of the most misused word in the dictionary.
We have been treated to enough drama now. It is time the issue of nomination was done with. Those of us waiting on the wings to leave the prty need enough time to identify a viable alternative. Telling us about how ODM candidates are supposed to elect the candidate is in itself a lie. The ODM doesnt even have structures leave alone delegates. Coming up with genuine party delegates requires not less than four months by which time the party will be a shell. You see I have just been told of how Kalonzo will this weekend revive the demands that the nomination of the presidential candidate be done with immediately. This will elicit mixed reactions pitting the competing interest groups within the ODM. That's why i say-Enuff drama. Let's do it and move on.
Vikii, according to Longman Dictionary of CE, a 'statesman' can be discribed as a political or government leader, especially one who is respected as being wise and fair. The same dictionary describes an 'elder statesman' as someone old and respected, especially a politician, who people may ask for advice because of his or her knowledge and experience. In the African context, one may describe Nelson Mandela or Kenneth Kaunda as both, but depending on your personal understanding of the word(s), I dont know whether you will do the same for the likes of Daniel Arap Moi, Bakili Muluzi or Frederick Chiluba. All these individuals were African Presidents at one time or another, but not all of them attract the same degree of national and international respect. In my earlier post, I said used 'statesman' to describe Kibaki and Saitoti because of their long public service & political experience and calmness in the face of extremely trying political events in their individual careers. The same calmness is evident by the two individuals in the current 'storm in a tea cup' that is Kenya politics. Mudavadi would also fall into this category, only that he lacks the experience. Raila, Ruto, Uhuru and Kalonzo cannot be statesmen however much they try.
ReplyDeleteI think ODM MPs are the major culprits in raising political temperatures. Other external forces, especially from KANU side, should for now be ignored completely. MPs, especially those not implementing CDF projects, know that their chances of being voted back incase the eventually nominee is not from their tribe / province are zero. Ex-KANU hawks are seeing real possibilities of being in remand prison by this time next year if ODM succeeds in staying united!
The time has now come for ODM presidential candidates to be steadfast and show party supporters that they mean business in their bid to unseat Kibaki. In other words - to behave like statemen/women. Unfortunately, Uhuru has already failed this crucial test.
kibaki abaki. how come all the years the economy was not growing but as soon as kibaki takes up leadership the growth skyrockets? note that its the same people and same resources that kenya had for 24 years. Its just like a business, once you put the right manager performance improves all other factors held constant.
ReplyDeletemy point to all the contributors is to inform Kenyans that another 5 years of Kibaki administration will propell this country to prosperity. I mean God has given you soemthing special that you can better use to guide others and this is your moment, i am sure deep down your conscience you appreciate what the government has done. Think about it
Correction. You asserted "Ngilu’s action means that the Kamba vote will mostly be split two ways—one half each to both ODM and Narc-Kenya".
ReplyDeleteWith Kalonzo vieing for President Kambas will line up behind him en-masse and Ngilu will be fighting for her dear political life.