VP Awori Announces That He Is Kibaki's Running Mate In Forthcoming General Elections

For a long time now it has been assumed that current Vice President Moody Awori would go off quietly into retirement and would not run in the forthcoming polls. More so because one of his sons was widely expected to run for the Funyula constituency parliamentary seat.

But all that changed yesterday at the constituency when the aging, but ever smiling VP announced that he was President Kibaki's running mate in the forthcoming general elections. The announcement came just a day after President Kibaki announced for the firs time that he would seek re-election.

The dramatic Awori announcement could have been dismissed as the last kicks of a dying horse except for one thing. There was an extremely heavy presence of MPs from Central province in Funyula when the VP made the announcement. And not just any MPs but a high-powered team led by Justice And Constitutional Affairs cabinet Minister Martha Karua in person.

So what is happening here when we know very well that he Narc-Kenya high command has been pushing very strongly for one Mukhisa Kituyi, the Trade minister to be President Kibaki's running mate and the next VP in the event that president Kibaki is re-elected?

Firstly, if there is one thing that has been consistent about the Kibaki administration, it is the habit of constantly and sometimes unexpectedly shifting positions concerning critical issues. Decisive decesion-making is not one of the president's strong points. There is little doubt that the choice of running mate is important enough to alter the outcome of the forthcoming general elections for any major candidate.

And hat has caused faithful, hardworking and youthful Kituyi to be dropped in favour of aging Awori?

A clue that could help in answering this question are the recent pronouncements by Luhya MPs to the effect that they are no longer interested in the VPs post. In fact the Luhya (which is not really one tribe just like the Kalenjin are not tribe) seem to be defying all odds and predictions (including predictions by this writer) and indications are that the group tribes calling themselves Luhya will for the first time enter a general election more united than they have ever been before. In fact chances are increasingly high that the community will field a presidential candidate if their front-runner, Musalia Mudavadi does not win the ODM nomination.

The Narc-Kenya think tank seems determined that the party should not lose its' strong footing in Funyula and may want to use the constituency as a strong base in which to launch forays into the expansive Luhya communities that are to be found all over Western Kenya and in parts of Rift Valley province.

Admittedly Mukhisa Kituyi was never a strong VP candidate right from the word go when one considers the numbers that he is capable of delivering. For starters he hails from the relatively small Bukusu community, which has been rabidly Ford Kenya right from the launch of multi-party politics in 1992. The Bukusu had a VP candidate in the last elections, one Michael Kijana Wamalwa (now deceased). Wamalwa was a key player in the Kibaki winning team. Kituyi is not quite as popular as Ford Kenya chairman Musikari Kombo, so he would have brought very little of anything to the table.

Make no mistake about it, the people in president Kibaki's re-election team are constantly doing their sums and numbers that will help their candidate end up with the highest number of votes is topmost on their minds. They have already done their arithmetic and concluded that the massive Kikuyu vote will be more or less behind the President who hails from Othaya in Central province. The Kikuyu vote alone is enough to win a presidential election, especially if the opposition fails to unite behind one candidate. In fact the Kikuyu influence countrywide is strong enough to guarantee 25 per cent from at least 5 provinces in the country (the other requirement for a winning presidential candidate). Namely Central, Nairobi, Rift Valley (still with a huge Kikuyu population), Western and Coast.

You may now begin to understand why the Kibaki administration is so determined to resist minimum reforms before the elections at all costs. And why Raila Odinga and company are so determined that reforms are carried out before elections. And the reform that is right at the top of their list is that a presidential candidate must win a least 50 percent of the vote plus one, to be declared winner.

While analysts agree that Awori Arthur A. Moody (the family seems to have a penchant for names with three similar initials. Awori's father was called Canon W.W.W. Awori) is a better choice for a running mate for President Kibaki than Mukhisa Kituyi, there is one factor that will tend to rubbish any positive analysis in this matter. And that is the fact that the political situation in Western Kenya right now is pretty fluid and there is a strong anti-Kikuyu sentiment on the ground. We saw a glimpse of this during the referendum when Funyula constituents overwhelmingly passed a "No" vote against the wishes of their still-popular MP. Chances are high that they will do the same thing in the forthcoming election and send their well-liked MP back to parliament but pass a firm "No" vote against his boss.

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