It must be such an obtuse paradox to have parliamentarians as authors of a presidential system of governance. Well, if the imperial presidency is synonymous with impunity, then the parliamentary system is a poor acceptance of tribal tension among Kenyans.
Kenyans have been unanimous in demanding one centre of power. Consequently, the PSC meeting in Naivasha have taken cue to settle for presidential system of governance. So far the whole PSC business smacks of smartly-disguised mischief.
What a lucky and privileged lot? Not only do they set and increase their own salaries, this time around they have upped the game by creating more constituencies for themselves.
Now we have PSC members determining a cap of 325 MPs. Which leaves you wondering what were their parameters in their hurry to jump the gun. Here we have people enslaved with the present political dispensation selfishly prescribing a future manual and structure of governance.
It appears the Kenyan voter hasn't seen the last of these scoundrels. One would be forgiven for believing the MPs when they shamelessly wax patriotic and pseudo objective until they start voting on weighty matters using their stomachs and mouths.
But you cannot blame the MPs who are only flying their Principal's flag. Lack of leadership from the TOP proved a clear abdication of responsibility. This saw the PSC being entrusted with an enormous task that the real power men never even pretended to solve.
Well, plastic patriotism may make us shout in denouncing those classifying us as a failed state. But the reality remains we are in the same cesspool as that hosting Mugabe and Tsvamgirai.
Kenya may not be Zimbabwe (spelling and pronunciation) but the common thread through both countries is the beautiful MIRAGE of a new constitution.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Xenophobia and Mau Unites Karua and Ruto
They play in opposite sides of the political field occasionally throwing choicest epithets at each other. But on demanding humane treatment of victims of official harassment, Hons. Karua and Ruto play on the same team for the same goal: FAIRNESS.
While Ruto took the PM head on demanding HUMANE EVICTIONS from Mau forest, Karua is roasting Saitoti for allowing police to use excessive force in breaking last Friday's protest. True to the hen-egg adage, which came first: the floods/trees for Ruto or human rights/security for madam Martha?
Here are two presidential candidates walking the talk. And Karua should know when she barracks Saitoti for a failed intelligence gathering. Her fidelity to the law can only earn her more admirers if not more voters. She stands tall and tough when no man dares raise his neck as evident during the post-election storm.
As for Ruto, his focus and bare knuckles approach to matters he consider close to his political cause can only raise his standing. After defying Moi and succeeding against all odds, nobody knows better how to fell a political giant.
These two presidential candidates have introduced a breathe of fresh air to political competition based on ISSUES. Karua knows human rights must not be compromised at whatever cost. Even Al-Shabaab sympathizers have rights and what is more, they are Africans and Kenyans to boot. Eastleigh and Kenya would be much poorer without these enterprising lot.
Meanwhile Ruto's selfless fight for the downtrodden sets a new standard for true leadership. Nobody could have been far-sighted than an Agriculture Minister promising a nationwide tree planting instead of selective actions media tokenism witnessed in Mau last Friday. Ruto has reminded us that tree planting is like infant immunization that can be postponed till the right time.
It is no coincidence that events of last Friday provided the platform on which these two great politicians launched their constructive campaigns against xenophobia and government harassment of her citizens.
Kenya can only get better. Kudos to the principled iron lady Karua and the indomitable honest Ruto. You have both painfully planted and the bounty harvest from your common constituency constituting the harassed will not disappoint.
While Ruto took the PM head on demanding HUMANE EVICTIONS from Mau forest, Karua is roasting Saitoti for allowing police to use excessive force in breaking last Friday's protest. True to the hen-egg adage, which came first: the floods/trees for Ruto or human rights/security for madam Martha?
Here are two presidential candidates walking the talk. And Karua should know when she barracks Saitoti for a failed intelligence gathering. Her fidelity to the law can only earn her more admirers if not more voters. She stands tall and tough when no man dares raise his neck as evident during the post-election storm.
As for Ruto, his focus and bare knuckles approach to matters he consider close to his political cause can only raise his standing. After defying Moi and succeeding against all odds, nobody knows better how to fell a political giant.
These two presidential candidates have introduced a breathe of fresh air to political competition based on ISSUES. Karua knows human rights must not be compromised at whatever cost. Even Al-Shabaab sympathizers have rights and what is more, they are Africans and Kenyans to boot. Eastleigh and Kenya would be much poorer without these enterprising lot.
Meanwhile Ruto's selfless fight for the downtrodden sets a new standard for true leadership. Nobody could have been far-sighted than an Agriculture Minister promising a nationwide tree planting instead of selective actions media tokenism witnessed in Mau last Friday. Ruto has reminded us that tree planting is like infant immunization that can be postponed till the right time.
It is no coincidence that events of last Friday provided the platform on which these two great politicians launched their constructive campaigns against xenophobia and government harassment of her citizens.
Kenya can only get better. Kudos to the principled iron lady Karua and the indomitable honest Ruto. You have both painfully planted and the bounty harvest from your common constituency constituting the harassed will not disappoint.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Deadly Police killers Part 4
Deadly Police killers Part 4
I will end this series with some very interesting information I have just gotten from one of my informants.
They start by refuting my story earlier this week where I said that Maj gen Ali’s survival outside prison is favoured by current International politics.
He assures me that sources close to the American embassy have assured him that Ali is a marked man by the Americans. He is sure that the only way Ali will possible ever gain access into the US is in handcuffs to face trial. Apparently the Americans are really pushing behind the scenes for Hague to indict Ali for crimes against humanity. Apparently it will be difficult for Ali to implicate his superiors and those he took orders from, even if he wanted to.
Interestingly the other two names that never leave Ocampos’ lips are those of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. However chances of a successful prosecution against Uhuru Kenyatta appear to be getting dimmer by the day. Three police executions have buried all possible evidence. Namely the two Oscar foundations executions and that of the Mungiki spokesman Njuguna Gitau. The Oscar foundation had a thick dossier on Ali and Uhuru that would have made Ocampo’s day. And Gitau was Uhuru Kenyata’s link to the Mungiki when he financed deadly attacks in Naivasha against non-Kikuyus in retaliation to what had been done to the community in the Rift Valley. It is widely recognized that the Naivasha killings ended eneded the post elections violence when it was realized just how devastating a Kikuyu retaliation could be. This is one reason why Uhuru is a hero to many in the Kikuyu community.
Ali and Ruto were not able to possibly ‘destroy’ all the evidence to cover their crimes and are definitely destined for an appointment with Ocampo.
The sad news is that as long as the current political class remains in power and for as long as state security continues to be an issue of national importance police killings will remain. Albeit maybe not at the scale that Kenyans have witnessed in the recent past.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
See previous weekend special
Deadly Police killers Part 3
Deadly Police killers Part 3
The very first thing that Mwai Kibaki did on taking over power was to ask for a detailed report from the major security agencies in the country. It was clear to the then delighted Kenyans that the new president considered fighting crime as one of his top priorities.
It was also apparent that the president had some very clear ideas on how exactly to go about combating crime and insecurity in the country. Increasing the number of police officers was one of them. However this hardly had the desired effect and the frustration of the new administration was clear as Mwai Kibaki’s first year in power dragged on. At one point the president even started threatening criminals in his public speeches.
From the various reports the government received it had emerged that the police (even with the injection of new ideas) was losing the fight against criminals. More drastic action was urgently required.
Now, during the Kenyatta administration whenever the spate of bank robberies increased in the country police would be ordered to hunt known bank robbers and to shoot them on site. One or two shootings later, criminals would start surrendering guns to the police and promising to behave themselves. It was clear that Mwai Kibaki’s mind was still firmly fixed in this long past era. And this is where the idea of using brutal methods to deal with crime in Kenya were first mooted. To implement this, a soldier was appointed to the post of police commissioner. And this is how the then Brigadier Hussein Ali ended up at Vigilance House. The minister in charge at the time was Chris Murungaru a close confidante of president Kibaki for many years. Soldiers are trained to kill whilst policemen are trained in law enforcements methods. The two are as different as night is from day. And this is the reason why Ali’s appointment at first puzzled many close security observers.
It is quite possible that Ali’s methods of fighting crime would never have been detected had it not been for the Mungiki menace. Still what remains puzzling to this writer is how Ali despite being a very intelligent man convinced himself that he could oversee the killing of so many people and still get away with it. More so in this age of satellite “spying” where it is virtually impossible to do anything major in the world and completely get away with it. Was it ignorance of the law? After all soldiers hardly get any training in legal matters.
The Kumekucha figures as to the number of people who were killed by Ali’s killing machine in clamping down on the Mungiki menace alone is close to 5,000. That is a figure many have sneered at here in this blog and has been ridiculed but I am still convinced that it is the figure closest to the truth. Unknown to many Kenyans Ali’s killing machine had also perfected methods of disposal of bodies. There were various tactics employed. One was to transport bodies to morgues very far away from where those people lived. A person could be killed in Nairobi and the body dumped at a Garissa morgue. Sometimes a Nairobi body would be dumped in nearby Machakos. But think about it for a moment, would you ever think of looking for a missing relative who lived in Nairobi even in nearby Machakos? Very unlikely although one lucky family was tipped off and found their loved one in Machakos.
The other method was to dump the body at the Nairobi national park. This one was ingenious. In 1975 the police dumped the body of the then Nyadarua North legislator, JM Kariuki in Ngong Forest where there are wild animals. All would have gone well but so determined were the police that he should never be recognized that they poured acid on his face and parts of the body to make positive identification impossible. In pouring the acid, this actually prevented most wild animals from feeding on the burning flesh (burning from acid), at least until a Masai herdsman discovered it. Incidentally JM Kariuki’s widow ended up identifying the body from a scar in his inner thigh, where the acid did not reach.
Now when you dump a dead body in the National park without pouring any acid on it, chances are that within a few days there will be no trace left. First the Hyenas will get to it. Hyenas even chew the hard bones of bigger animals and so imagine what they would do to supple human bones. And then when they are done there are the scavengers hovering all over the place. Not to mention the ants and worms in the bushes who usually clean up any remnants. In this way thousands of bodies disappeared without trace and without any evidence.
So experienced and efficient did the Ali killing machine become that by the time the post election troubles came in early 2008, the ingenious method of throwing some of the Kisumu bodies into Lake Victoria was quickly mooted.
Admittedly most of the stories told about the killings that Maj gen Hussein Ali supervised in his tenure as police commissioner sound like fiction straight out of a spy thriller. Indeed this is Ali’s best defense, to say that the stories are too incredible to be true. Sadly the truth is that most are true.
Still during the aftermath of the botched presidential elections a close informant of mine who lives in Nyayo High rise estate had an interesting encounter. They called me at about 8 am to say that they couldn’t sleep because there was constant gunfire in neighbouring Kibera. They reported that the gunfire went on the whole night without ceasing and only petered off in the early morning at around 5 am. Now there are no Somalis living in Kibera and therefore you can safely rule out the idea of anybody exchanging fire with the police. Can we assume that all those bullets were missing their mark? Or perhaps the police were shooting at rats (there are plenty of those in the slums)?
Also remember that the poor folks at Kibera have no idea where the newspaper offices are. Majority of them would be terrified after a relative is killed by the police. Who would protect them if they reported a police killing? It is this mostly innocent blood crying out from the ground that will definitely not leave Maj gen Ali and his superiors in peace until justice is done, however long that takes.
To be continued
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Previous Weekend special
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Deadly Police killers Part 2
Deadly Police killers Part 2
The Kenya police has a long history of being brutal and when one examines the very beginnings of the force it all begins to make more sense.
Press reports in Kenya have always maintained that Ali was the very first military man to be appointed police commissioner. This is NOT true. The very first commissioner of police was a soldier (Brig.Gen.F.S. Edward who served from 1908 to 1922). In fact as early as 1909 Edward himself noted that the military element had been promoted at the expense of police training, as a result of which a training depot was established in Nairobi in 1911 together with a small fingerprint section.
But perhaps the peak of brutality for the “Kinya” police (as the colonialists pronounced it) was during the emergency. The first thing that the colonial government did to deal with the Mau mau menace was to greatly expand the numbers in the force. Now you know where one Mwai Kibaki may have gotten his idea of how to easily deal with escalating crime when he took over power in 2003. The other thing they did was to stop playing things by the book. In other words this meant untold brutality torture and killing of many innocent people. This tactic was quite effective in snuffing out the Mau mau rebellion. And again now you know where the Kibaki administration may have gotten the idea of not playing things by the book of which Maj Gen Ali’s appointment as police commissioner was key.
There was a honeymoon period for the police when Kenya gained her independence in 1963. The injustices in the police that happened over this period were mainly to do with appointments. A handful of very able men including an excellent Luo officer were overlooked for the post of police commissioner in favour of a Kikuyu man who was hurriedly transferred from the Special branch called Bernard Hinga. You have to realize that until independence very few and carefully selected Kikuyus were recruited into the police or any armed force in the country. This is because they were mainly considered to be disloyal and unpredictable. Kambas were greatly favoured followed by other tribes like the Luo. So considering the numbers alone the chances of a kikuyu being the first commissioner of police were very slim indeed.
But even more instructive was the man appointed to take Bernard Hinga’s place at the Special Branch. His name was James Kanyotu.
Evidence that I have gathered seems to suggest that as 1964 came to a close the Kenyatta government had come to the realization that the celebratory honeymoon was over and they needed to put their house in order. Alarming developments in other African countries like frequent coups, including neighbouring Zanzibar (where there was a bloody revolution engineered by a Ugandan policeman) quickly caused paranoia in the Kenyatta administration and pushed security of the state to the top of the government’s priority list. What security of the state meant was really security of the president and indeed the very survival of his government.
The result was that all enemies, real and imagined, had to be identified and dealt with long before they made their moves. Bernard Hinga headed the special branch until the end of 1964 and at the time this police department mainly gathered and analyzed information and there were no “executions” as such carried out.
Advisors to the Kenyatta administration pointed out that even developed countries like Great Britain and the United States had state security organs that dealt with threats viciously and the young Kenyan administration could not pretend that such an arrangement was not necessary in these shores.
It is very telling that barely within two months of the appointment of James Kanyotu in February 1965, the first “police execution” took place. Pio Gama Pinto was reversing from his house when a lone gun man appeared from nowhere and shot him dead.
How was Pinto a threat to national security?
Many local writers have speculated that his leanings towards communism were the reason. Actually the real reason was that courageous Pinto had actually confronted the President at parliament buildings a few weeks earlier over his personal land grabbing and the corrupt ways of his government. Eyewitnesses say that Kenyatta retorted by calling Pinto a bastard and without thinking Pinto told the head of state that he too was a bastard. Everybody who was there was stunned. It is likely that Kanyotu felt that if Pinto was allowed a little room he would develop a formidable opposition to the Kenyatta government. In fact Pinto had been Kenyatta’s fund raiser at the most difficult time of the latter’s political career and there were few political fundraisers at the time that were as effective as Pinto. This is closer to the truth as to why Kanyotu gave the order for Pinto’s life to be terminated.
As I have said before in this blog, Pinto’s assassination and Tom Mboya’s killing 4 years later had a lot of uncanny similarities that point directly to the police, or rather the secret arm of the police being responsible. However there was one big difference. Kanyotu was an impeccable man who carefully covered his tracks and only started making serious mistakes many years later, late into the Moi administration and even then his mistakes were very few. Kanyotu must have noted that in the Pinto assassination a man who was not a police officer was used and it became clear that there were many problems with this approach including possible leakages later. And that is why I tend to believe information made available to me that the man who actually pulled the trigger to end Mboya’s life was in fact a police officer. The late Ben Gethi. The man later arrested for the murder Nahashon Njenga, a Kanu activist and youth winger who was personally known to Mboya, had an uncanny resemblance to Gethi.
All the assassinations done during the Kenyatta era were carried out by the Special branch and with the knowledge and nod from the director of intelligence James Kanyotu himself. Now when the Moi era commenced, there was again a honeymoon period where all political detainees were released and police executions stopped. It seems that while Moi still received regular briefings from his intelligence chief James Kanyotu, he shied away from authorizing killings. To Moi’s credit, even after the 1982 coup he favored detention without trial to killings. He was probably still too disgusted at what he had seen during the Kenyatta era. Even the Ouko murder was not really ordered but was rather a spontaneous thing that happened in the heat of the moment although the Special branch was used to track the foreign minister’s every move and to later to help cover up the murder.
You must also remember that it was during the Moi era that the Special branch was abolished and replaced by the National Security Intelligence Services (NSIS) which unlike the special branch has no legal arresting powers. Actually its’ predecessor, the special branch thrived on the arrest and brutal torture of its’ subjects to verify and get information. It is for this reason that many old hands wondered how the new NSIS would work.
This is very important to keep in mind because the Kibaki administration met this kind of arrangement when he took over office in 2003.
To be continued
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Invitation to all illegal immigrants in Africa (ad sponsored by Kumekucha)
Are you interested in living in a foreign country illegally without any headaches? Then Kenya has to be your country of choice. Come to Kenya where you can immediately start pretending to be Kenyan and even cause all the chaos and trouble you want without fearing deportation. Those who enjoy throwing stones at policemen are especially invited for a helluva time with the Kenya riot police who rarely fire back with live ammunition like some of you are already used to in good old Wild West Mogadishu and other non-nonsense African countries. Live at your leisure without any papers or visa worries. Buy property anywhere you want and even right in the middle of Nairobi CBD. Yes, you don’t believe it? I challenge you to come to Kenya and see for yourself. You certainly can’t do it in Tanzania, Uganda or even Sudan. In fact you can’t do it anywhere else in the world. But in Kenya anything is possible for illegal immigrants. The only papers you need are lots of liquid cash to smooth over any slight problems that may occur mostly from hungry immigration officers and policemen. Somalis are especially invited to see a capital city within a capital city called Eastleigh “little Mogadishu” that is better than Mogadishu itself (before it was bombed up and all) and where 99.9% of the population is made up of Somali nationals. And where you can get a forged passport to travel to any part of the world. Rush now, it is already getting very crowded.
Advertisement issued by Kumekucha in the human rights interests of settling Africans and illegal immigrants trapped all over the world who are keen on living in a foreign country illegally but safe from arrest or any harassment (in fact you are the one who is free to harass the citizens of your host country yourself).
N.B. If you have no passport to cross the border into Kenya, don’t worry, ready cash will do.
Previous weekend special
Deadly Police killers Part 1
Deadly Police killers Part 1
It was approaching mid 2008 and two different incidents happened in quick succession. The first was a warning that my true identity and location was known to certain persons hell-bent on hiding the truth from Kenyans at all costs. These people had been linked to various assassinations that at that point were only “rumours published in Kumekucha.” The second was when out of the blue one of my most impeccable and reliable security informants warned me to lie low and ensure that my identity was never known to this same group. My two informants did not know each other, I was sure of that. And so the timing of their warnings unsettled me greatly. I realized then that my life was really in danger.
Still I hesitated. What if both were wrong? Besides I had been very careful all along, surely there was no way they could find me. And so I did a little more checking and digging. Some sources assured me that all was well. But one or two others told me that I was a marked man because I had disclosed information that was way too sensitive in my blog and what made matters worse is that the information had reached the wrong “foreigners” who were now going to cause a lot of trouble. Since I knew too much and would most probably be called upon to help unearth the truth later, I could no longer be ignored.
Running for dear life can be a strange thing. The first thing that happens is panic. I did not realize how panicked I was until a friend who was helping me asked me a direct question; who exactly wanted to kill you? My mind went blank. It seemed that I had forgotten all the distinct incidents and happenings that had led me to that conclusion. It took two different lengthy dossiers for me to pinpoint the exact source of my fears with barely plausible motives as to why anybody would want to end my life prematurely.
In retrospect what happened in the weeks and months that followed confirmed that my information was correct as people who knew much less than I did ended up dead, execution-style. I am convinced to this day that had I not shifted locations when I did, things would have been very different.
It is important to remember that when I had my troubles almost nobody believed that there was a police execution unit at work in Kenya. And you really couldn’t blame them because they did not know as much as I knew on the subject.
This weekend I hope to help you dear readers of Kumekucha to understand a lot more about the reign of terror of one Maj Gen Hussein Ali and the reason why the Americans will not leave him alone even after he left the police to be postmaster general. His reign of terror as police commissioner is unprecedented although the truth is that police killings did not start with him.
And so let’s start in the next post with a history of the brutal nature of the Kenya police shall we?
To be continued
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
P.S. Warnings here in Kumekucha about the time bomb that is Eastleigh have been numerous and started at least two years ago. The government as usual ignored them. The violence yesterday at the Jamia mosque in Nairobi caused many Kenyan Muslims to hang their heads in shame. And there is very little that they can now do to cleanse their image in the eyes of other Kenyans. After all who will believe that the so called Muslim youth who caused chaos are all from Somalia and are resident in the country (mostly illegally)? Who can differentiate between them and the local peace loving Muslims? Some deaths were caused yesterday… and for what? For a radical muslim cleric who has suddenly found that there is no airline in the world willing to carry him (even those from muslim countries?) A man who came into Kenya through Tanzania and yet the same Tanzania refused to follow the usual protocol where the radical cleric should have retraced his steps back to where he came from? By the way Tanzania has majority of the population listed as being Muslims.
So how differently should have the Kenyan government handled this Faisal chap who promotes the killing of innocent women and children and claims that his is a religious crusade? Should he have been invited for a cup of coffee in State house? Maybe flown back to Jamaica on the presidential jet? Please!!!!!
It is really annoying for illegal immigrants from a neighbouring country to cause so much chaos and disturb the peace in our country after they have caused such serious problems in their own country so that it is now inhabitable. It would seem that they want to do the same to our beloved Kenya. How dare you come into my peaceful house as a guest and then start breaking stuff and behaving as if it is your house? Hon George Saitoti please wake up and do something drastic!!
I have personally witnessed a man of Somalian descent being denied entry into Tanzania by immigration officers at Namanga. That tells you why Tanzania will never have such silly problems.
If I was Saitoti I would literally shut down Eastleigh right away. As I said in a post over a year ago. It is probably too late to do anything sane now. And that means that the only way to solve the problem is to do it with radical and bold strokes (whatever the consequences). Unless of course we want Nairobi to rapidly degenerate into another Mogadishu soon.
Previous weekend Special
Friday, January 15, 2010
CoE Betrayed Kenya, Planted Deadly Tension
The wide gulf between the two leading political camps on the new draft constitution beggars the question, whose views did the committee of experts (CoE) gather and synthesize? In fact the VP has already challenged the CoE to table the raw views.
Something is not quite right here. Either the CoE betrayed their mandate and deceived Kenyans by ignoring their views or the political shenanigans are back to what they know best by stroking tension in preparation for 2012.
Our politicians have thrown posterity to the dogs. Meanwhile they continue to hold us collectively hostage by the fear and interests of personalities. And the CoE did us no favour with the hybrid proposal that thought was a master stroke to bridge the divide but instead seems to be even driving the wedge deeper.
The last few days brings back the tension and division of referendum 2005 live. The coalition mongrel is tottering in the brink of collapse. Already ministers are publicly pulling in opposite direction pandering and aligning themselves for 2012.
Deceit manifests itself in various shapes and forms including contempt packaged as silence. Just look at all the nonsensical standoff between the PM and President on tree planting in Mau. The whole episode leaves you wondering and marvelling at the folly of inverted priorities.
Unless some sombre leadership prevails, the impeding referendum will do more damage and leave the country more polarized like never seen before. That would be the perfect catalyst to spark inferno come 2012.
Something or somebody must stop these selfish politicians from playing Russian Roulette with Kenya. The Katiba mirage is fast fading in the horizon.
P.S. Don't miss the sizzling weekend special this weekend;
Something is not quite right here. Either the CoE betrayed their mandate and deceived Kenyans by ignoring their views or the political shenanigans are back to what they know best by stroking tension in preparation for 2012.
Our politicians have thrown posterity to the dogs. Meanwhile they continue to hold us collectively hostage by the fear and interests of personalities. And the CoE did us no favour with the hybrid proposal that thought was a master stroke to bridge the divide but instead seems to be even driving the wedge deeper.
The last few days brings back the tension and division of referendum 2005 live. The coalition mongrel is tottering in the brink of collapse. Already ministers are publicly pulling in opposite direction pandering and aligning themselves for 2012.
Deceit manifests itself in various shapes and forms including contempt packaged as silence. Just look at all the nonsensical standoff between the PM and President on tree planting in Mau. The whole episode leaves you wondering and marvelling at the folly of inverted priorities.
Unless some sombre leadership prevails, the impeding referendum will do more damage and leave the country more polarized like never seen before. That would be the perfect catalyst to spark inferno come 2012.
Something or somebody must stop these selfish politicians from playing Russian Roulette with Kenya. The Katiba mirage is fast fading in the horizon.
P.S. Don't miss the sizzling weekend special this weekend;
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Deadly International Politics Favours Maj. Ali
...even as he is denied a Visa To America on official business
Retired Maj gen Ali in his "killing" uniform.
Politics is a very dirty game and no matter how clean and good-intentioned one is when they start out, sooner or later they are bound to find themselves wallowing in the “muddy waters of political expediency” out of necessity.
An extremely fascinating scenario is beginning to play out between the Kenyan government and the Americans (as I predicted in my column on predictions for this year, only that I thought it would take a couple of weeks at the very least, and not mere days.) Retired Maj general Ali, the former police commissioner has been denied a visa to visit the United States on official duty in his capacity as post master general. All his subordinates including his personal assistant were all quickly granted visas to travel to the US of A on the same trip.
But now comes the really interesting part. And that is the reaction of the United States Ambassador to Kenya Mr Reinberger. On being asked about Ali, his first response is that the press does NOT have their facts right. All he can say, he adds with a straight face, is that Ali was denied a visa to travel, implying that no permanent Visa ban has been slapped on Ali. Now that’s a really puzzling answer coming from the Americans considering that many Kenyans have already received a Visa ban for much less mischief than the atrocities that Ali has been linked to (I reveal these shocking atrocities in my Weekend special this weekend titled Police killers. Don’t miss it.)
Let me tell you good folks about the politics playing out in the background in Ali’s case. The Americans are currently keen to do business with the man whom Ali was taking orders from when he committed the said atrocities against Kenyans and chances are that avoidance of a complete Visa ban for Ali will be an extra bargaining chip on the table. And so if all goes well, the good general will be free to travel to the United States next time round. That is when everybody has long forgotten about this incident and the members of the press have their eyes focused on another controversy somewhere else.
President Barrack Obama got elected on a reform platform but to reassure many conservative voters he incorporated a lot of hard-nosed conservatives into his administration (and gave signs of the same before election day) especially to key areas linked to national security and the war on terror. The best illustration of this is the fact that he chose to retain Ambassador Reinberger (a George W. Bush appointee) as his man in Nairobi, territory that President Obama knows extremely well. Anyway until now his close conservative advisors have had only limited sway. That was until the failed terrorist attack on a plane headed to America by a Nigerian last Christmas. Now everything has changed rather dramatically. The president cannot afford to keep his soft gloves (which earned him the Nobel peace prize) and has to start acting tough against the terrorist threat. I am afraid that under these circumstances reforms in Kenya have to take the back seat for a while in US policy in East Africa and especially Kenya. The most urgent thing on the plate of the Americans right now is dealing with the very real threat of the Al Shabab on American interests in the region. The truth is that even as you read this, things are already rolling, and rolling very fast. If you follow Kenyan news then you would have seen the news item yesterday about Moi expressing his views about the draft constitution. His views (where he opposed the hybrid system in favour of an executive president answerable to the voters) grabbed all the headlines and nobody paid much attention to the people who had paid the president a courtesy call which gave him the opportunity to make the remarks to the press, and the reason why they came calling. Actually the visitors were very high ranking officials of the besieged interim government of Somalia. They were asking for Moi’s help in seeking for peace and stabilizing things in Somalia. Guess which country has played the biggest role in establishing and maintaining this shaky government against all odds and thus helping create groups like the Al Shabab in the process? Moi of course promised to act which I am sure he will. But what can Moi do in such a complex scenario that has defeated the best diplomats in the world?
Actually folks this is only a well designed smoke screen because everybody knows that the only language the Al Shabab can understand has to do with a military solution. To the more observant, this is a classic American approach to dealing with a crisis of this nature “borrowed” from the Israelis. Well I can’t resist digressing to tell you a little story about the Israelis. An Air France plane carrying plety of Jews was hijacked by terrorists way back in 1976 and landed in Entebbe Uganda to the then President Idi Amin’s welcoming hands. The Israelis immediately started preparing their commandos for a risky rescue operation at the airport which everybody forgot was designed and built by the Israelis themselves (meaning that they had access to detailed layouts of the place). Meanwhile on the diplomatic front the Israeli government seemed to give in to the terrorists and agreed to negotiate for the safe release of the Jewish hostages. Fascinatingly the minute that the Israelis got word that their commandos had landed at Entebbe is the very minute they walked into the negotiation room to begin talks with the Arabs.
The Israelis quietly listened to the terrorists’ representatives as they breathlessly stated their long list of demands even as the commandos thousands of miles away made short work of the terrorists and Idi Amin’s sleepy soldiers rescuing all the hostages save for one old lady who had unfortunately been taken to hospital. Idi Amin later had her murdered in cold blood to revenge the very successful rescue mission by the Israelis. That was around the time the Arabs shifted their attention from their more formidable opponent to the ‘easier prey’ Americans.
But back to Ali, reforms and Kenyan politics. It seems that barring something out of the ordinary (or this post getting into the “wrong” hands; and it won’t be the first time) Ali and his boss seem headed for a very soft landing in the neat future. They should at least anonymously send flowers to that crazy Nigerian kid. Meanwhile to us poor Kenyans that damn Nigerian has done us all terrible irreversible damage that we may never recover from.
Did you miss Kumekucha’s controversial predictions for 2010?
Don’t miss the weekend special this weekend titled Police killers. Regular readers are well aware that the weekend specials are sizzling hot and so it might be a good idea to have a cool drink at hand. See you then. My drums and Nyatiti column resumes next week.
P.S. I get rather amused every time the controversial press laws are sneaked in and media owners predictably start running round like headless chickens. I get even more amused when people get busy condemning mere servants like the PS for information or the clueless minister. Let me brief on this (I don’t want it to develop into a mini-post). The PS and the minister take their orders from only one person. This is the fourth time in recent times that this media laws circus has been played out. It never happened even once during the Moi or Kenyatta days. Folks, it will only stop when Kibaki leaves office. Secondly guess who was the president’s close “advisor” in this when the initial plan was made for these draconian laws at State House Nairobi. None other than the CEO of the leading media house in Kenya himself. If you don’t know which CEO I am talking about, just ask any journalist you see next the most tribalistic CEO in corporate Kenya (who by the way is on an American Visa ban list for his role during the clashes. List to be announced soon, unless he (the said CEO) too is saved by the Christmas day actions of the Nigerian nutcase). I will say no more for now.
Retired Maj gen Ali in his "killing" uniform.Politics is a very dirty game and no matter how clean and good-intentioned one is when they start out, sooner or later they are bound to find themselves wallowing in the “muddy waters of political expediency” out of necessity.
An extremely fascinating scenario is beginning to play out between the Kenyan government and the Americans (as I predicted in my column on predictions for this year, only that I thought it would take a couple of weeks at the very least, and not mere days.) Retired Maj general Ali, the former police commissioner has been denied a visa to visit the United States on official duty in his capacity as post master general. All his subordinates including his personal assistant were all quickly granted visas to travel to the US of A on the same trip.
But now comes the really interesting part. And that is the reaction of the United States Ambassador to Kenya Mr Reinberger. On being asked about Ali, his first response is that the press does NOT have their facts right. All he can say, he adds with a straight face, is that Ali was denied a visa to travel, implying that no permanent Visa ban has been slapped on Ali. Now that’s a really puzzling answer coming from the Americans considering that many Kenyans have already received a Visa ban for much less mischief than the atrocities that Ali has been linked to (I reveal these shocking atrocities in my Weekend special this weekend titled Police killers. Don’t miss it.)
Let me tell you good folks about the politics playing out in the background in Ali’s case. The Americans are currently keen to do business with the man whom Ali was taking orders from when he committed the said atrocities against Kenyans and chances are that avoidance of a complete Visa ban for Ali will be an extra bargaining chip on the table. And so if all goes well, the good general will be free to travel to the United States next time round. That is when everybody has long forgotten about this incident and the members of the press have their eyes focused on another controversy somewhere else.
President Barrack Obama got elected on a reform platform but to reassure many conservative voters he incorporated a lot of hard-nosed conservatives into his administration (and gave signs of the same before election day) especially to key areas linked to national security and the war on terror. The best illustration of this is the fact that he chose to retain Ambassador Reinberger (a George W. Bush appointee) as his man in Nairobi, territory that President Obama knows extremely well. Anyway until now his close conservative advisors have had only limited sway. That was until the failed terrorist attack on a plane headed to America by a Nigerian last Christmas. Now everything has changed rather dramatically. The president cannot afford to keep his soft gloves (which earned him the Nobel peace prize) and has to start acting tough against the terrorist threat. I am afraid that under these circumstances reforms in Kenya have to take the back seat for a while in US policy in East Africa and especially Kenya. The most urgent thing on the plate of the Americans right now is dealing with the very real threat of the Al Shabab on American interests in the region. The truth is that even as you read this, things are already rolling, and rolling very fast. If you follow Kenyan news then you would have seen the news item yesterday about Moi expressing his views about the draft constitution. His views (where he opposed the hybrid system in favour of an executive president answerable to the voters) grabbed all the headlines and nobody paid much attention to the people who had paid the president a courtesy call which gave him the opportunity to make the remarks to the press, and the reason why they came calling. Actually the visitors were very high ranking officials of the besieged interim government of Somalia. They were asking for Moi’s help in seeking for peace and stabilizing things in Somalia. Guess which country has played the biggest role in establishing and maintaining this shaky government against all odds and thus helping create groups like the Al Shabab in the process? Moi of course promised to act which I am sure he will. But what can Moi do in such a complex scenario that has defeated the best diplomats in the world?
Actually folks this is only a well designed smoke screen because everybody knows that the only language the Al Shabab can understand has to do with a military solution. To the more observant, this is a classic American approach to dealing with a crisis of this nature “borrowed” from the Israelis. Well I can’t resist digressing to tell you a little story about the Israelis. An Air France plane carrying plety of Jews was hijacked by terrorists way back in 1976 and landed in Entebbe Uganda to the then President Idi Amin’s welcoming hands. The Israelis immediately started preparing their commandos for a risky rescue operation at the airport which everybody forgot was designed and built by the Israelis themselves (meaning that they had access to detailed layouts of the place). Meanwhile on the diplomatic front the Israeli government seemed to give in to the terrorists and agreed to negotiate for the safe release of the Jewish hostages. Fascinatingly the minute that the Israelis got word that their commandos had landed at Entebbe is the very minute they walked into the negotiation room to begin talks with the Arabs.
The Israelis quietly listened to the terrorists’ representatives as they breathlessly stated their long list of demands even as the commandos thousands of miles away made short work of the terrorists and Idi Amin’s sleepy soldiers rescuing all the hostages save for one old lady who had unfortunately been taken to hospital. Idi Amin later had her murdered in cold blood to revenge the very successful rescue mission by the Israelis. That was around the time the Arabs shifted their attention from their more formidable opponent to the ‘easier prey’ Americans.
But back to Ali, reforms and Kenyan politics. It seems that barring something out of the ordinary (or this post getting into the “wrong” hands; and it won’t be the first time) Ali and his boss seem headed for a very soft landing in the neat future. They should at least anonymously send flowers to that crazy Nigerian kid. Meanwhile to us poor Kenyans that damn Nigerian has done us all terrible irreversible damage that we may never recover from.
Did you miss Kumekucha’s controversial predictions for 2010?
Don’t miss the weekend special this weekend titled Police killers. Regular readers are well aware that the weekend specials are sizzling hot and so it might be a good idea to have a cool drink at hand. See you then. My drums and Nyatiti column resumes next week.
P.S. I get rather amused every time the controversial press laws are sneaked in and media owners predictably start running round like headless chickens. I get even more amused when people get busy condemning mere servants like the PS for information or the clueless minister. Let me brief on this (I don’t want it to develop into a mini-post). The PS and the minister take their orders from only one person. This is the fourth time in recent times that this media laws circus has been played out. It never happened even once during the Moi or Kenyatta days. Folks, it will only stop when Kibaki leaves office. Secondly guess who was the president’s close “advisor” in this when the initial plan was made for these draconian laws at State House Nairobi. None other than the CEO of the leading media house in Kenya himself. If you don’t know which CEO I am talking about, just ask any journalist you see next the most tribalistic CEO in corporate Kenya (who by the way is on an American Visa ban list for his role during the clashes. List to be announced soon, unless he (the said CEO) too is saved by the Christmas day actions of the Nigerian nutcase). I will say no more for now.
Primsident: Burden of Past Political Trauma
Political scientists often advance the theory that a country needs a crisis to draft a new constitution. So do we need a crisis or are we already in one to warrant one? Well, maybe we have both circumstances in our hand if the single obsession with executive power is anything to go by.
Ex-President Moi has just added his voice with a preference to presidential system of governance. And he has the right more so given his 24 years of RUIN as the president himself as be shamelessly reminds us that the presidential system is not dictatorial as politicians want us to believe. Well, we better listen to the professor of Kenyan politics now that the present dispensation makes him look a saint.
The renown Oxford-trained political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi (WANTED by Ford foundation) also bastardized the CoE of intellectual laziness. He opined that the PSC can salvage the simmering political situation by presenting two drafts for a YES-YES vote. And therein lies the matchbox to ignite a raging inferno.
Recent developments points to the two political sides pandering to this ROSSY proposition. But behind this poisoned chalice for proposal hides their true intention to drive the final blade through body Kenya. You cannot fail to see the smartly veiled gimmick to rally other Kenyan tribes against those who have ALLEGEDLY suffocated them with the imperial presidency.
Bloggers here may chose to differ but not before the mass hysteria acquires a life of its own to self-destruction. True, the CoE failed in their mandate by holding themselves hostage to present political dispensation while giving leave to posterity.
But all is not lost. Kenyans have come along way and the politicians can only use old tricks on them at their collective peril. Until then the scent of new constitution may just drift away as the struggle enters its third decade.
Ex-President Moi has just added his voice with a preference to presidential system of governance. And he has the right more so given his 24 years of RUIN as the president himself as be shamelessly reminds us that the presidential system is not dictatorial as politicians want us to believe. Well, we better listen to the professor of Kenyan politics now that the present dispensation makes him look a saint.
The renown Oxford-trained political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi (WANTED by Ford foundation) also bastardized the CoE of intellectual laziness. He opined that the PSC can salvage the simmering political situation by presenting two drafts for a YES-YES vote. And therein lies the matchbox to ignite a raging inferno.
Recent developments points to the two political sides pandering to this ROSSY proposition. But behind this poisoned chalice for proposal hides their true intention to drive the final blade through body Kenya. You cannot fail to see the smartly veiled gimmick to rally other Kenyan tribes against those who have ALLEGEDLY suffocated them with the imperial presidency.
Bloggers here may chose to differ but not before the mass hysteria acquires a life of its own to self-destruction. True, the CoE failed in their mandate by holding themselves hostage to present political dispensation while giving leave to posterity.
But all is not lost. Kenyans have come along way and the politicians can only use old tricks on them at their collective peril. Until then the scent of new constitution may just drift away as the struggle enters its third decade.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Al-Faisal: Loyalty to Religion and not Country
The difference between failed and failing state may just be reduced to tenses. Well, somebody must have slept on the wheels to let the Jamaican preacher in Kenya. So far nobody wants to answer the basic question of who gave him visa to enter Kenya.
Nobody and no country wants to touch him. But Al-Faisal traversed a dozen African countries including South Africa before landing in Mombasa by road. Now none of these countries want anything to do with him.
Either we were more vigilant within our borders or just plainly naive and left holding both the baby and the bath tab. The fact that neither Tanzania not SA doesn't want to hear about this guy leads to the obvious question did he have visa for these countries or was he there illegally?
Meanwhile our over zealous activists and lawyers-for-rent are all over demanding his release. Speak of the law being an ass. Religion has become a cheap rallying call and adherents can sell both their souls and country for six silvers.
Well, these loud-mouthed activists must have forgotten one Fazul staying and marring a local in Lamu and the subsequent dark August 7, 1998.
Al-Faisal must have been unlucky to have been nabbed before he disappeared into Eastleigh. Kenya must be the safe haven and route for Al-Shaabab recruits.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Why this obsession with a Prime Minister?
There are a lot of good things in the draft constitution. But it is now crystal clear that Kenyans are going to lose it all because of somebody’s obsession with a silly hybrid system.
Why anybody would get so obsessed with this dangerous experiment just beats me. Tell me something, when a company is in a crisis what do you do? Do you start to undertake dangerous experiments? Do you create a new system which will make it difficult for anybody to take responsibility for failure? Will somebody then make me understand why we must have a hybrid system and why we must continue to insist on it even when it is crystal clear that most Kenyans are against it? (By this is now official. Today the nation printed as its’ main headline what many Kumekuchans have known all along (at least the ones who have believed me) and that is the fact that most Kenyans are against having both a president and prime minister.
The excuse at the beginning for this crazy experiment (which has never worked anywhere else in the world) was that we were trying to get rid of an imperial presidency. Nobody stopped to ask the simple questions; is this the only way of reducing the powers of the presidency? How have other countries reduced the power of the executive? Instead our so called experts have been at pains to cheat Kenyans that a hybrid system is the only way out our problems of the past.
I find it rather instructive that although the committee of experts responded to public pressure and restored the provincial administration (more on that later) they chose to ignore the section that was crying out most for them to take action, the issue of having two centres of power within the executive.
Now if I may ask, if a government under such ridiculous constitution fails, who will take the responsibility? The president or the prime minister? And please don’t tell me both.
Let me end this angry post by saying something about the provincial administration. The truth of the matter is that a lot of the excessive powers of the presidency stems from the provincial administration. Most Kenyans do not realize this. And that is why it is funny when somebody argues for a hybrid system and then in the same breath says that the provincial administration MUST be retained. In my view let’s keep things simple and neat. Let’s get rid of the prime minister nonsense and check the president’s powers using both the legislature and the judiciary. And then let’s get rid of the provincial administration. Let’s get serious about having devolved government and let people vote for their leaders at the grass roots. If they want to elect devils who will steal everything, let them, it is their democratic right.
I find it unacceptable that a lot of the arguments coming from Kenyans these days are to the effect that the ordinary Kenyan voter is not intelligent enough to make a wise informed decision and they therefore need “help” in the form of legislation. This is the reason why most people fear devolved government and it is the same reasoning behind the Mudavadi local authorities bill that will require Mayoral candidates to be university graduates even though they will be elected directly and not by fellow councilors is the case currently. My dear fellow “well educated” Kenyans, lets stop pretending and hiding our real thoughts behind many nice words that the common folks don’t even understand. Let’s be blunt and take this thinking a step further and create two different classes of voters. One the educated Kenyan voter whose vote will count twice against the single vote of the poor illiterate pumbavus from the village. Is that what we want? It seems to me that many Kenyans are very determined that we continue to widen the gap between the two different classes of Kenyans we have created.
P.S. I continue with my weekend specials next weekend and before then I will hopefully complete my current special on the dark secrets of the presidency. I will announce later what my topic for this weekend will be.
Other articles on the constitution from Kumekucha:
Why are ODM so determined to force a hybrid system on Kenyans?
What I have against a new constitution
Why the draft constitution is juice laced with poison
Why anybody would get so obsessed with this dangerous experiment just beats me. Tell me something, when a company is in a crisis what do you do? Do you start to undertake dangerous experiments? Do you create a new system which will make it difficult for anybody to take responsibility for failure? Will somebody then make me understand why we must have a hybrid system and why we must continue to insist on it even when it is crystal clear that most Kenyans are against it? (By this is now official. Today the nation printed as its’ main headline what many Kumekuchans have known all along (at least the ones who have believed me) and that is the fact that most Kenyans are against having both a president and prime minister.
The excuse at the beginning for this crazy experiment (which has never worked anywhere else in the world) was that we were trying to get rid of an imperial presidency. Nobody stopped to ask the simple questions; is this the only way of reducing the powers of the presidency? How have other countries reduced the power of the executive? Instead our so called experts have been at pains to cheat Kenyans that a hybrid system is the only way out our problems of the past.
I find it rather instructive that although the committee of experts responded to public pressure and restored the provincial administration (more on that later) they chose to ignore the section that was crying out most for them to take action, the issue of having two centres of power within the executive.
Now if I may ask, if a government under such ridiculous constitution fails, who will take the responsibility? The president or the prime minister? And please don’t tell me both.
Let me end this angry post by saying something about the provincial administration. The truth of the matter is that a lot of the excessive powers of the presidency stems from the provincial administration. Most Kenyans do not realize this. And that is why it is funny when somebody argues for a hybrid system and then in the same breath says that the provincial administration MUST be retained. In my view let’s keep things simple and neat. Let’s get rid of the prime minister nonsense and check the president’s powers using both the legislature and the judiciary. And then let’s get rid of the provincial administration. Let’s get serious about having devolved government and let people vote for their leaders at the grass roots. If they want to elect devils who will steal everything, let them, it is their democratic right.
I find it unacceptable that a lot of the arguments coming from Kenyans these days are to the effect that the ordinary Kenyan voter is not intelligent enough to make a wise informed decision and they therefore need “help” in the form of legislation. This is the reason why most people fear devolved government and it is the same reasoning behind the Mudavadi local authorities bill that will require Mayoral candidates to be university graduates even though they will be elected directly and not by fellow councilors is the case currently. My dear fellow “well educated” Kenyans, lets stop pretending and hiding our real thoughts behind many nice words that the common folks don’t even understand. Let’s be blunt and take this thinking a step further and create two different classes of voters. One the educated Kenyan voter whose vote will count twice against the single vote of the poor illiterate pumbavus from the village. Is that what we want? It seems to me that many Kenyans are very determined that we continue to widen the gap between the two different classes of Kenyans we have created.
P.S. I continue with my weekend specials next weekend and before then I will hopefully complete my current special on the dark secrets of the presidency. I will announce later what my topic for this weekend will be.
Other articles on the constitution from Kumekucha:
Why are ODM so determined to force a hybrid system on Kenyans?
What I have against a new constitution
Why the draft constitution is juice laced with poison
Friday, January 08, 2010
Zuma: Authentic Fidelity With Plural Emotions
Not even ultimate power comes in between the joy and burden of athletism around the waist.
Monday, January 04, 2010
2010 predictions by Kumekucha: The sucker punch year
What is a sucker punch?
There was a time in my eventful life when I boxed a little before other sports like Rugby kept me too busy to return to the ring. I believe that one has to have been a boxer or at least able to imagine themselves in the ring to fully understand what a sucker punch is. Come with me into a boxing ring where you have the upper hand and are already boxing your opponent to the corner of the ring. At this point you get pretty confident that the fight is soon ending with your opponent’s back firmly on the floor of the ring. In fact you are looking for that big knock out blow that will floor him. In other words you are moving in for the kill. But your problem is that in the process you have left yourself wide open. Suddenly your opponent who is already reeling around the ring like a drunkard masters all the strength they still have and throw one heavy punch blindly in your direction. His fist gets you square in the jaws. It is so unexpected that it hurls you back. As you fall you know that your jaw must be broken and the fight is definitely over. Sure enough, the next thing that happens is that your opponent’s hands are being lifted in the air in victory. He has won. He is bleeding and still feeling so dizzy that he can hardly stand. BUT he has won.
A sucker punch is something that is so unexpected that it catches you completely unawares and usually it comes when you are pretty confident that things are going your way.
That is how I see 2010.
And we saw an ominous sign on Christmas day 2009 that illustrates this brutally well. President Obama was on a well deserved brief holiday retreat with plenty to celebrate, including his success with a health care bill that has defeated plenty of presidents before him, including the very politically-savvy two-term Bill Clinton. Then suddenly without any warning the attempted Bombing incident by a 23 year old Nigerian. Everybody knows that this single event has completely changed the politics of the Obama administration. His big priority now has to be to prove to his critics that he is tough enough to continue the war on terrorism. Although this blog is not about American or International politics, I mention this example because it is going to have a very huge impact on local politics. If I was Mwai Kibaki or Raila Odinga I would have been popping the most expensive Champaign I could find after that incident. You see until now the two gentlemen have been under such intense pressure that breathing must have been difficult. Now we can expect a very sudden and deliberate change in US policy towards Africa and Kenya. The priority now will be fighting terror. Those Al-Shabab kids in neighbouring Somalia who swoon and get all wet at the mention of the name Al-Qaeda will now have to be dealt with ruthlessly. Reforms in Kenya will have to take a back seat for a while as much more urgent issues are dealt with first.
I believe that the year 2010 will be one full of surprises and sudden and completely unexpected political shifts. I believe that it will be the year of the under dog. Remember that it is the under dog who usually delivers the sucker punch on the over-confident guy who is already sure of victory.
I am afraid that I see a successful Al-Shabab strike on Kenyan soil in 2010. Just when Kenyan security forces thought they were in control of the situation. Rather obvious when you consider the porous nature of our borders and the fact that ours is a country of Kitu kidogo meaning that anybody can bribe their way to anywhere as long as they have ready cash.
I also see the new constitution being defeated in 2010 and throwing the country into deadly birth pangs of its’ long awaited re-birth.
I also see major political problems for Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his twin brother President Mwai Kibaki. The kind of political problems that people never recover from.
Also, like most Kenyans I see some very prominent big shots making appearances at The ICC at The Hague which will naturally cause lots of excitement and joy amongst Kenyans. Never in the history of our nation have we seen any “untouchable” in the country sweat from anything else other than from overeating at some five course meal in a big hotel or from making tribal hate speeches on a warm Kenyan weekend day. This will be the year that a handful of people will sweat and have their lawyer’s numbers available on speed dial. Don’t be surprised if the big shots of the big shots are indicted. The perfect sucker punch don’t you think? When you are confident that you are too big to be touched by Luis Moreno Ocampo… the worst happens.
If you are currently winning and on top of the situation, prepare to taste the dust in 2010. And if you were facing imminent defeat towards the end of 2009, prepare for sudden and unexpected victory. I repeat, 2010 will be the year of the underdog.
I believe that the world economy will slump just when everybody thought that recovery was here. You see you do not have to be an economist to realize that the stage-managed recovery has only succeeded in postponing the inevitable. Lets simply this further for the non-economists. A man is badly in debt and out of a job and so you decide to bail him out by handing over a lot of cash to them so that they can start their own business and get themselves out of the mess. Instead of starting the business or getting a job the person instead focuses all their efforts on their image in the eyes f their debtors. They work hard to prove to debtors that they now have a cash flow going and are therefore credit worthy and will end up paying their debts some day. BUT meanwhile this person has not addressed the crux of the problem. This is exactly what has happened with the so-called stimulus packages that have been implemented all over the world. There was even one for Kenya that has hardly taken off because the government financial year is already halfway gone and it is unlikely that a significant percentage of the stimulus package funds will be released before the budget in June. Just as well, because I don’t believe in such cosmetics things.
Of interest to most of you readers will be what I think the effect of the widely expected second dip (as some economists are calling it) will be on Kenya and indeed Africa. Call me crazy but I firmly believe that it will be the beginning of the rise of Africa. Notice that we were mostly unscathed by the first wave of the unprecedented world economic crisis that was triggered by the American mortgage market. I believe that this time round Africa will in fact start to shine. Let me go further and add that the continent to place your investments in is definitely Africa. Investors in Kenya should go ahead with their plans at full throttle but make contingency plans for sudden and unexpected violence, looting and mayhem that will hopefully pass quickly when it comes, because it will surely come. Whatever businesses you want to dive into in 2010 just make sure that Africa is firmly at the centre of your plans.
For currency speculators, I am aware that currently there are plenty of positive sentiments towards the dollar (remember the sucker punch analogy?) but personally I am shifting all my savings to Euros. I will stick with the Euro and be patient even into 2011.
Interested in specific industry by industry Kumekucha predictions for 2010? Want to know what I think will happen in your industry and how you can best prepare for it? This post became way too long and so I have put all my other research covering virtually every industry you can think of into a special report for my free email newsletter, Kumekucha Confidential subscribers. Subscribe now and get this amazing special report titled; 2010 Amazing Kumekucha predictions, via email. Remember my record so far on predictions (political and otherwise)… it is well over 85% bang on target. Ask those who have been reading Kumekucha since 2006. get your free subscription and free report via email now by sending an email to:
kumekucha-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Other recent posts in Kumekucha by Chris:
How stupid are poor people in Kenya?
Mystery of Kibaki bloodbath?
There was a time in my eventful life when I boxed a little before other sports like Rugby kept me too busy to return to the ring. I believe that one has to have been a boxer or at least able to imagine themselves in the ring to fully understand what a sucker punch is. Come with me into a boxing ring where you have the upper hand and are already boxing your opponent to the corner of the ring. At this point you get pretty confident that the fight is soon ending with your opponent’s back firmly on the floor of the ring. In fact you are looking for that big knock out blow that will floor him. In other words you are moving in for the kill. But your problem is that in the process you have left yourself wide open. Suddenly your opponent who is already reeling around the ring like a drunkard masters all the strength they still have and throw one heavy punch blindly in your direction. His fist gets you square in the jaws. It is so unexpected that it hurls you back. As you fall you know that your jaw must be broken and the fight is definitely over. Sure enough, the next thing that happens is that your opponent’s hands are being lifted in the air in victory. He has won. He is bleeding and still feeling so dizzy that he can hardly stand. BUT he has won.
A sucker punch is something that is so unexpected that it catches you completely unawares and usually it comes when you are pretty confident that things are going your way.
That is how I see 2010.
And we saw an ominous sign on Christmas day 2009 that illustrates this brutally well. President Obama was on a well deserved brief holiday retreat with plenty to celebrate, including his success with a health care bill that has defeated plenty of presidents before him, including the very politically-savvy two-term Bill Clinton. Then suddenly without any warning the attempted Bombing incident by a 23 year old Nigerian. Everybody knows that this single event has completely changed the politics of the Obama administration. His big priority now has to be to prove to his critics that he is tough enough to continue the war on terrorism. Although this blog is not about American or International politics, I mention this example because it is going to have a very huge impact on local politics. If I was Mwai Kibaki or Raila Odinga I would have been popping the most expensive Champaign I could find after that incident. You see until now the two gentlemen have been under such intense pressure that breathing must have been difficult. Now we can expect a very sudden and deliberate change in US policy towards Africa and Kenya. The priority now will be fighting terror. Those Al-Shabab kids in neighbouring Somalia who swoon and get all wet at the mention of the name Al-Qaeda will now have to be dealt with ruthlessly. Reforms in Kenya will have to take a back seat for a while as much more urgent issues are dealt with first.
I believe that the year 2010 will be one full of surprises and sudden and completely unexpected political shifts. I believe that it will be the year of the under dog. Remember that it is the under dog who usually delivers the sucker punch on the over-confident guy who is already sure of victory.
I am afraid that I see a successful Al-Shabab strike on Kenyan soil in 2010. Just when Kenyan security forces thought they were in control of the situation. Rather obvious when you consider the porous nature of our borders and the fact that ours is a country of Kitu kidogo meaning that anybody can bribe their way to anywhere as long as they have ready cash.
I also see the new constitution being defeated in 2010 and throwing the country into deadly birth pangs of its’ long awaited re-birth.
I also see major political problems for Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his twin brother President Mwai Kibaki. The kind of political problems that people never recover from.
Also, like most Kenyans I see some very prominent big shots making appearances at The ICC at The Hague which will naturally cause lots of excitement and joy amongst Kenyans. Never in the history of our nation have we seen any “untouchable” in the country sweat from anything else other than from overeating at some five course meal in a big hotel or from making tribal hate speeches on a warm Kenyan weekend day. This will be the year that a handful of people will sweat and have their lawyer’s numbers available on speed dial. Don’t be surprised if the big shots of the big shots are indicted. The perfect sucker punch don’t you think? When you are confident that you are too big to be touched by Luis Moreno Ocampo… the worst happens.
If you are currently winning and on top of the situation, prepare to taste the dust in 2010. And if you were facing imminent defeat towards the end of 2009, prepare for sudden and unexpected victory. I repeat, 2010 will be the year of the underdog.
I believe that the world economy will slump just when everybody thought that recovery was here. You see you do not have to be an economist to realize that the stage-managed recovery has only succeeded in postponing the inevitable. Lets simply this further for the non-economists. A man is badly in debt and out of a job and so you decide to bail him out by handing over a lot of cash to them so that they can start their own business and get themselves out of the mess. Instead of starting the business or getting a job the person instead focuses all their efforts on their image in the eyes f their debtors. They work hard to prove to debtors that they now have a cash flow going and are therefore credit worthy and will end up paying their debts some day. BUT meanwhile this person has not addressed the crux of the problem. This is exactly what has happened with the so-called stimulus packages that have been implemented all over the world. There was even one for Kenya that has hardly taken off because the government financial year is already halfway gone and it is unlikely that a significant percentage of the stimulus package funds will be released before the budget in June. Just as well, because I don’t believe in such cosmetics things.
Of interest to most of you readers will be what I think the effect of the widely expected second dip (as some economists are calling it) will be on Kenya and indeed Africa. Call me crazy but I firmly believe that it will be the beginning of the rise of Africa. Notice that we were mostly unscathed by the first wave of the unprecedented world economic crisis that was triggered by the American mortgage market. I believe that this time round Africa will in fact start to shine. Let me go further and add that the continent to place your investments in is definitely Africa. Investors in Kenya should go ahead with their plans at full throttle but make contingency plans for sudden and unexpected violence, looting and mayhem that will hopefully pass quickly when it comes, because it will surely come. Whatever businesses you want to dive into in 2010 just make sure that Africa is firmly at the centre of your plans.
For currency speculators, I am aware that currently there are plenty of positive sentiments towards the dollar (remember the sucker punch analogy?) but personally I am shifting all my savings to Euros. I will stick with the Euro and be patient even into 2011.
Interested in specific industry by industry Kumekucha predictions for 2010? Want to know what I think will happen in your industry and how you can best prepare for it? This post became way too long and so I have put all my other research covering virtually every industry you can think of into a special report for my free email newsletter, Kumekucha Confidential subscribers. Subscribe now and get this amazing special report titled; 2010 Amazing Kumekucha predictions, via email. Remember my record so far on predictions (political and otherwise)… it is well over 85% bang on target. Ask those who have been reading Kumekucha since 2006. get your free subscription and free report via email now by sending an email to:
kumekucha-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Other recent posts in Kumekucha by Chris:
How stupid are poor people in Kenya?
Mystery of Kibaki bloodbath?
Friday, January 01, 2010
Kumekucha Citizen Journalism Awards 2010
The first decade of the new millennium is gone. And gone with it too is the prophesied meltdown that never was in 2000. The vanishing decade also ushered in the so-called citizen journalism that saw the birth of our own Kumekucha.
True, a blog is nothing but just that a blog, an online diary if you like. But again there are blogs and there is Kumekucha. This is not only a political blog that trail blazed while others followed, but readers visit this blog so as to have a true feeling of Kenya’s political pulse. And the opinions are both varied and acidic as they come.
As we welcome the second decade of the millennium, pioneer writers of this blog deserve accolades. First comes Chris with his no-holds-barred insights. The BOSS has rubbed many regulars and newbies the wrong way. And true to the adage that only fools don’t change their minds, he has modified his political takes based on dynamics while retaining history as his principal anchor. Wapi Oscar?
Acid and vitriol
Next comes Phil, the indefatigable. Like him hate him Phil’s passion and steadfastness to advance and defend his course is a case study of political fidelity. That picture would be incomplete without mentioning Derek (aka Deroo) as Phil’s checkmate on the political chessboard. Derek and Vikii’s eloquence in articulating their respective political stands is passion personified.
The rainbow politics in Kumekucha would be the poorer without mentioning both UrXlnc and Sam Okello with their often controversial pitches. And yes, one and only Luke with his tongue firmly stuck in his cheek.
Then comes the girls who stuck their heads to disabuse the male folk of political naivity. The potent mix of PKW, Ciku Msa, Sayra and Mrembo would often leave the men scampering for political safety like headless chicken. This lot provided the much needed reality check when the political kitchen became too hot.
The past few months wouldn’t have been the same at this blog without the intellectual rigour and vigour of our own Mwarangethe. His singular obsession and articulation of matters wealth and land is a thesis superlatively written and defended.
Reclaim Kenya
The KK citizen journalism awards would be biased and insensitive without mentioning the numerous anonymouses whose wits and vitriol spiced and enriched the blog.
This is therefore to wish all of you a happy NEW YEAR for making this blog such a success. KK's clones never grew wings or the feathers froze. You have provided a steady pedestal for even better political discourse in the new decade.
Phew! Gone is the cursed decade when we almost collectively stewed in our own blood and incoming is the defining year when Kenyans either reclaim their country from scoundrels or kiss the bottom of abyss-self destruction.
Happy new year once more folks.
True, a blog is nothing but just that a blog, an online diary if you like. But again there are blogs and there is Kumekucha. This is not only a political blog that trail blazed while others followed, but readers visit this blog so as to have a true feeling of Kenya’s political pulse. And the opinions are both varied and acidic as they come.
As we welcome the second decade of the millennium, pioneer writers of this blog deserve accolades. First comes Chris with his no-holds-barred insights. The BOSS has rubbed many regulars and newbies the wrong way. And true to the adage that only fools don’t change their minds, he has modified his political takes based on dynamics while retaining history as his principal anchor. Wapi Oscar?
Acid and vitriol
Next comes Phil, the indefatigable. Like him hate him Phil’s passion and steadfastness to advance and defend his course is a case study of political fidelity. That picture would be incomplete without mentioning Derek (aka Deroo) as Phil’s checkmate on the political chessboard. Derek and Vikii’s eloquence in articulating their respective political stands is passion personified.
The rainbow politics in Kumekucha would be the poorer without mentioning both UrXlnc and Sam Okello with their often controversial pitches. And yes, one and only Luke with his tongue firmly stuck in his cheek.
Then comes the girls who stuck their heads to disabuse the male folk of political naivity. The potent mix of PKW, Ciku Msa, Sayra and Mrembo would often leave the men scampering for political safety like headless chicken. This lot provided the much needed reality check when the political kitchen became too hot.
The past few months wouldn’t have been the same at this blog without the intellectual rigour and vigour of our own Mwarangethe. His singular obsession and articulation of matters wealth and land is a thesis superlatively written and defended.
Reclaim Kenya
The KK citizen journalism awards would be biased and insensitive without mentioning the numerous anonymouses whose wits and vitriol spiced and enriched the blog.
This is therefore to wish all of you a happy NEW YEAR for making this blog such a success. KK's clones never grew wings or the feathers froze. You have provided a steady pedestal for even better political discourse in the new decade.
Phew! Gone is the cursed decade when we almost collectively stewed in our own blood and incoming is the defining year when Kenyans either reclaim their country from scoundrels or kiss the bottom of abyss-self destruction.
Happy new year once more folks.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Semi-permanent cosmetics in Africa?
The Nyatiti is a wonderful musical instrument that is perfect for singing praises and honouring somebody and it is my African instrument of choice to honour the kind of Kenyans I meet and feel proud to be a Kenyan. On the other hand the drum can be used for many things. Drums are beaten before some executions which is what I wish I could do to some of the Kenyans I meet, but for now drums of protest will do. Welcome to Kumekucha’s column that puts personalities, faces and real life incidents into nationals of the great sleeping giant nation called Kenya. Every Tuesday or Wednesday only here in the most popular blog on Kenyan news and politics.Semi-permanent Cosmetics in Africa
Have you ever heard of semi-permanent cosmetics? Can you imagine waking up with make up for a long time to come? Say 3 to 4 years? Imagine the time you would save. The sheer convenience…
Well thanks to a very innovative young Kenyan called Jared H. Babu a micropigmentologist, this service is now available in Kenya. And you can hardly find it anywhere else in Africa outside South Africa.
The story of how he came across this business is telling.
It all started when he got an opportunity to travel to the United States with a relative who wanted him to study the finer details of a product that he had secured a distributorship for. It was for bullet proof car tyres. So while Jared was in Los Angeles studying the finer details of the car tyre that can withstand any automatic weapon bullets without getting deflated, he decided that he would keep his eyes open for a woman’s product that would do well back home in Kenya. Now this is very interesting because we all know that when most Kenyans land in Western countries they are solely focused on how they can stay on (mostly as illegal immigrants) and look for a job to get rich on. This young guy was instead looking for business opportunities to take back home with him.
He found it in semi-permanent make-up and trained for a year and a half to graduate as a certified permanent cosmetic professional. He now offers this service to enthusiastic ladies dropping in at his premises at Old Mutual Building on Kimathi Street. He can be reached on +254 722-691272. Or email:- tattooingwithstyle@gmail.com
Join me in playing a nice Nyatiti tune to honour this innovative Kenyan whose every effort should be greatly encouraged.
Are poor people fools?
When people talk, they will always let slip their real feelings and prejudices. A rather fascinating comment appeared in this blog that reflects the feelings thoughts and beliefs of many privileged Kenyans. They referred to the poor people of Kenya a some kind of idiots who don’t have the slightest clue.
Now this is a very widely held belief in Kenya amongst the political class. They believe that poor people are fools. I once heard this view expressed by a rich man’s kid who said something I will never forget. He posed the question; why don’t those poverty stricken Kibera guys just come into town and use their brains and hassle and make money just like everybody else? I laughed bitterly at this great naivety displayed. But after a while I realized that I was no better than this guy. I was assuming that everybody has been privileged enough like I have been to live virtually everywhere in Kenya amongst the stinking rich and also amongst the most desperate folks you have ever met.
Let me answer the rich kid’s question because know that there are multitudes reading this who would pose the same question. In many cases the Kibera folks have NOT had the same opportunities as many of us have had. And I am not talking about education only. There is the even more important thing called exposure. Of course folks like this rich kid’s dad are to blame. They have gotten rich stealing from the poor, like a vast majority of Kenyans. The recent scandal in the Ministry of education where the government is scrambling to do damage control is a perfect example of this.
Little wonder that recently while showing somebody around some leafy suburbs of Nairobi I remarked; “And this is where the thieves live.”
Join me will you, in beating drums of protest at those Kenyans who believe that poor people are poor because they are stupid. Who is more stupid here?
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Dark secrets of the presidency Part 11
Mystery of the bloodbath under Kibaki
One of the big mysteries of the Kibaki administration has to do with the ugly unprecedented post election violence of January 2008 shortly after the presidential elections results were announced.Now everybody knows that it was President Daniel Arap Moi who literally invented tribal clashes. His motive for doing this was to speed up the fulfillment of his prophecy to Kenyans in 1991; “Multi-party itawachoma.” (multiparty politics will burn you to ashes.) Moi in bowing to pressure and allowing the re-introduction of multi-party democracy in Kenya in 1991 had bitterly warned Kenyans that it was not good for them, Lakini mtoto akililia wembe mpe (But if a child cries to be given a razor, give it to them so that they cut themselves and learn their lesson the hard way.)
There is overwhelming evidence (including the one given by former powerful minister of State in the office of the president under Moi, Burudi Nabwera) that the president was deeply involved in formenting and establishing regular tribal clashes in the Rift Valley. Nabwera toild shocked Kenyans through a press statement that Moi personally imported bows and arrows into the country from a certain Asian nation. These crude weapons were then distributed on the ground and the people provoked to “remove the enemy.”
I happened to be in Nakuru (playing rugby) during the height of the tribal clashes under the Moi regime in 1992 and I bumped into a friend of mine whom I had not seen for many years. He worked for the airforce and flew helicopters. We caught up on a lot of things over a few drinks and then I suddenly asked him what his mission in the Rift Valley was all about. I will never forget the look on the poor guy’s face. This chap was actually a great friend of mine and we had no secrets between us. But that day he looked aside avoided eye contact and said that his mission was top secret and there was no way he could discuss it with me. A chill went up my spine watching him squirm in his seat. He behaved in the right way not telling me anything. But his squirming spoke volumes.
Anyway back to what I was saying. By the time Kibaki took over as president, Moi had fine-tuned his tribal clashes game in the Rift Valley. Remember that these so-called clashes only emerged just before a general elections ONLY.
Any fool in Kenya had this information and the great mystery on my mind to date is did Kibaki guess what the consequences of a stolen election would be on the ground that Moi had cultivated in the Rift valley for a number of years? Did the intelligence community and security forces in the country not guess what would happen in the Rift Valley? I ask this because even the response by the government initially mainly focused in Kisumu while parts of the Rift Valley went up in flames. In fact things got so bad that it was the Kenya Army which was sent into the Rift Valley together with the GSU. That is very telling because this has never happened before in the history of the country. That a civilian problem necessitated the sending in of the military. Not only that. What was the Ugandan military doing in Kisumu and Eldoret?
I would like to give President Kibaki the benefit of the doubt and assume that he did not guess that there would be any serious problem in the Rift Valley because I don’t want to believe that he did not care. But it is strange how the president would not have a clue when ordinary folks like me knew and cringed when the election results were announced.
Somebody somewhere has to answer for all the unnecessary deaths, rapes and maiming of innocent Kenyans that went down. I don’t want to believe for one minute that all those fellow Kenyans died in vain.
Meanwhile the scene inside State House shortly after the troubles in the Rift Valley erupted is interesting and rather instructive.
It is said that the president took the first few calls from the then secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The calls were calling for his urgent action because the international community was very concerned about what was happening in Kenya. It is said that the president was rather casual and saw no need for concern or panic assuring Ms Rice that things were under control. And yet it was obvious that they were not.
Shortly after that, the president stopped taking the calls even as Ms Rice desperately tried to reach him again.
Admittedly, here the president cannot take all the blame. He received lots of help from the Bush administration to rig the 2007 elections and this must have been one of the reasons why the calls annoyed him. If you are short of evidence to point to Americans fully backing Kibaki in his evil deeds, then ask yourself why the World Bank was still doing deals with Kibaki’s Finance Minister Amos Kimunya in late Decemeber when intelligence reports on the ground were saying that at the very least it would be a close election. More accurate reports pointed to a Raila Odinga win by a landslide.
And then also remember that the Americans were the first and only Western nation to congratulate Kibaki on his re-election. They later quickly withdrew this congratulatory message. Don’t ask me how one withdraws a congratulatory message because I also have no idea how it is done.
American had many reasons not to want a Raila Odinga win at all costs. One of them was the suspect secret funding of ODM from certain Arab nations linked to terrorism. But as usual the Yankies greatly underestimated the cost that would have to be paid on the ground in terms of the innocent blood of Kenyans being poured for them to fulfill their desires.
(To be continued)
Dark secrets of the presidency will continue on Thursday right through to the end of the holidays. However it will be interrupted tomorrow by my weekly column Drums and Nyatiti. Meanwhile I take this opportunity to thank all those wonderful Kumekucha readers who sent me messages of goodwill over the Christmas period. I was very touched reading each and every one of them. Thank you very much my brothers and sisters.
Get a Free copy of almost the entire book Dark Secrets of the Kenyan Presidency
Part 9
Part 10
Part 11
Part 12
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Dark secrets of the presidency Part 10
Proud Makerere Don
Despite being President Moi’s Vice President for 10 long years, it is rather obvious that Mwai Kibaki learnt very little or nothing from his long stint as VP. Very much unlike Moi before him.
One thing that was always very clear during Kibaki’s campaign for the presidency was that he thought of Moi as an uneducated fool who ran a government full of fellow illiterates who had never gone to school and there was therefore nothing to learn from him. This is the arrogant attitude that Kibaki carried with him to State House in January 2003. This was further confirmed by an insistence on CVs before any public appointments would be made. There was no doubt that the idea here was to catch people who had no university education since this appears to have been the minimum bench mark that Kibaki had set in his early months as president of Kenya. Not only that, the president had his preferences in Universities with UK universities and Makerere being at the top of his list.
The speech Kibaki made at Uhuru park on being sworn in as president was even more telling. He clearly emphasized that the era of road side directives and appointments was over.
Again one his close aides, Kiraitu Murungi put it even more bluntly when he arrogantly said in a speech;
“We want Moi to retire to his Kabarak home and look after his goats and we will show him how a government should be run.”
What must have been going through Kibaki’s mind was that he was taking over from illiterates who knew nothing and with his credentials and those he would appoint the whole mess would be magically wiped out literally overnight. It was a very simplistic view which the president no doubt regrets to this day.
In retrospect Kibaki had a lot of grand ideas for Kenya. But historians will record that virtually all of them had one thing in common they reeked of great naivety. I was at a meeting at Ufungamano house, Nairobi where Kibaki was addressing Christian professionals and he emphasized that the tax which was then being collected by the Moi government was more than enough to run government and take a lot of services to the people. In the same meeting Kibaki took time to emphasize to his audience that he lived in Muthaiga had lived there for a very long time. In all my years of following politics in Kenya I have never heard another leader emphasize their residence. You be the judge of what that was all about but in my book there is an overwhelming stench of pride and arrogance here.
It is one thing to seek to be a reformist but one needs to understand the system that they are seeking to change much more deeply than Mwai Kibaki understood the Moi prtesidency.
How could somebody be in government so long and even be Vice president for a decade and still be so naïve? I will leave that one for historians to answer but my opinion supported by a lot of evidence is that the problem is the man’s arrogance. The truth of the matter is that the more arrogant you are in this life the less you end up learning. And it does not matter if the knowledge is staring you right in the face.
Granted, people all over the world approach high office with many grand expectations that are usually quickly deflected by the cold reality on the ground. In other words the job always looks much easier than it really is. Still having said this it is obvious that Mwai Kibaki was an extreme case of a very naïve person who had to make way too many adjustments even to be able to have a stable administration.
This is the reason why very early during his administration a sizeable number of Kenyans were predicting that he would not make it to 2007 when the next general elections were due.
Even more dangerous was the man’s way of dealing with any crisis. I have a theory that a contributing factor to this attitude had to do with his first marriage. On countless occasions Kibaki got locked out of his own house at night by his wife Lucy, leaving his bodyguards and minders in an awkward position. To deal with his wife Kibaki’s approach was always to ignore the crisis at hand and pretend that all was well. He would sleep in the uncomfortable environment of the car and would then behave like nothing had happened the next morning.
This attitude clearly seeped into the former Makerere don’s personal management style when it came to making decisions and here there are many instances that clearly illustrate this.
Indeed this attitude proved to be fatal.
I will give just two examples.
Had Kibaki dealt with the crisis over the memorandum of understanding and Raila Odinga more swiftly and decisively he would have quickly gained an upper hand over Raila Odinga. Instead he let the problem simmer until it became a major crisis that almost brought his administration to its’ knees. In any case it led to unnecessarily high tension in the country that climaxed with the referendum and prepared the ground for the post election violence of early 2008.
An even deadlier case was the beginning of the post election violence when intelligence reports came in clearly showing that the country was burning and yet there was unprecedented indecisiveness on the part of the executive. This wavering cost many Kenyan lives that would have otherwise been saved. To make matters worse the whole situation had been provoked by Mwai Kibaki himself in the first place. He did this by leaving it very late in the election to rig the presidential vote (more dithering on his part) and this made his actions rather obvious to the majority of Kenyans. This is something that the ICC and Moreno Ocampo should look into more deeply as they seek to punish the main perpetrators of Kenya’s worst election-related violence ever. They should also look deeply into the Raila Odinga brand of politics shortly after the 2003 elections.
Any manager will tell you that there are some decisions that if left too late weaken the impact of any move one may end up making later. The most recent example is the crisis at the Ministry of education where billions in donor funds has been embezzled. Even if Kibaki ends up firing the Education minister and the PS later, the impact will be almost zero now after all the pressure that has been brought to bear on his government.
Good managers will also tell you that on many occasions swift decisive action even when the wrong decision has been taken is much better than indecision.
This is the crux of the problem with President Mwai Kibaki’s leadership. And when you combine this with the unfolding political reality where there is a fierce struggle over the Kibaki succession, it is a recipe for disaster and unprecedented disaster for Kenya.
Get a Free copy of almost the entire book Dark Secrets of the Kenyan Presidency
(To be continued)
Part 9
Part 10
Part 11
Part 12
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)