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Unfortunately most folks who read this blog and then leave comments here are currently based outside the country. (My own quick survey recently, showed that a significant percentage of locally based readers never leave comments, some because they do not know how to, but most because the culture of blogs and comments is yet to fully catch on within the country.) So being able to properly gauge the mood in the country at the moment becomes fairly difficult.
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Also published today
Why this presidential elections may open up old wounds that never healed
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Little wonder that most of our commentators are still preoccupied with their favorite candidates and tribal and selfish interests when all signs are that the country is rapidly sliding into anarchy.
If the Mungiki versus Matatu touts and divers skirmishes in Kiambu appear to be of no consequence to you (although the death toll is now approaching double digit figures). And if the land clashes in distance Mount Elgon are somewhat boring and the information you have on them is scanty. Then the most recent eruption of violence in Bura, Coast Province and the election related violence in Magarini constituency as the country prepares to go into a by-election only a couple of months before the general election, should make you sit up and pay attention.
Then we must remember that in the very recent past, we have had politically-and-tribal-related violence in the Mathare slums that left scores of innocent and poverty stricken Kenyans dead. There have also been serious chaos in Kibera, the largest slum in East and Central Africa that have left at least half a dozen persons dead.
All this is taking place long before the election campaigns proper starts. So what will happen when the 9th parliament is sent o it's final recess and constituency parliamentary seats are officially declared vacant by the electoral commission?
There is this joke newspaper writers are fond of making in their first articles after the general elections where they usually welcome back into the country those who took refuge outside the country during the polls. This time it may not be that funny because all the signs point to Kenyans having the most violent elections ever. Chances are that Nigerian elections will be made to look like a picnic at Uhuru ark in comparison.
There is one particular aspect I have been warning about for almost two years now. Reglar readers of this blog must have grown tired of me saying that the country is not yet ready for a Luo versus Kikuyu presidential candidate contest. Two years ago I predicted that that is the direction we are headed. And if comments in this blog are representative and if we can half-believe the numerous opinion polls that have been published in recent times then it is clear that we are headed for a Raila versus Kibaki battle as the two main presidential candidates. Kalonzo Musyoka supporters reading this will complain that I am biased against their man. But opinion polls (which this blogger does not believe) have consistently shown Musyoka's support slipping. My opinion is that that support has never been there in terms of enough numbers to start with.
However another truth we must all face soberly is that outside ODM-Kenya, Kalonzo Musyoka is a non-starter for the presidency. However if he were to be chosen the ODM-Kenya candidate, he stands a better chance of dethroning Kibaki with the support of Raila and all the other ODM-Kenya heavyweights. What I mean is a better chance than Raila would stand.
Sadly a Kalonzo candidature would also mean a more peaceful election because the issue of Luo versus Kikuyu for the highest office in the land would be avoided. Alas, my view is that Kalonzo would make the worst president Kenya has ever had, worse even than Kibaki. The country is bound to sink down to the level of the constituency he has represented for a long time now.
Personally I would vote for peace every time, and would thus be forced to hope for a Kalonzo candidature in ODM-Kenya and I would then vote for Kibaki. Sadly this is the thinking amongst a growing number of Kenyans. It is the saddest thing I have ever had to write because as I have said here many times, nobody deserves the presidency more than Raila.
What I see happening however is that Kalonzo will lose his bid to be the ODM candidate, will cry foul and leave the party, probably with one or two heavyweights (because he and Moi have done their homework thoroughly). That will leave Raila Odinga as the main opposition candidate and the result will be violence and death on an unprecedented scale right across the country.
Kumekucha has come across some confidential documents involving a well known presidential candidate. Read them here in this blog tomorrow. Don't miss Kumekucha on Monday.
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Sunday, April 22, 2007
Why A Kikuyu Versus Luo Contest For The Presidency Will Open Up Old Wounds
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A recent analytical piece in the Standard newspaper has told Kenyans what is already clearly written on the wall. And that is the fact that we are headed for a Raila versus Kibaki showdown. (Read the Standard story for yourself).
This is exactly what Kenyan politics has been all about since the referendum. Everything else has been a side-show.
It is interesting that in while two Luo candidates would feature prominently in elections in an area with large numbers of Kikuyu voters in 1958, a similar contest in a Nairobi constituency in that pits two major candidates, namely a Kikuyu and a Luo against each other would end up causing chaos. I have in mind a contest between former Mungiki leader, Ndura Waruinge and Raila Odinga in Langata constituency.
The whole problem started in 1969 when a Luo threw a chair at a prominent Kikuyu in Kisumu. The resulting death toll (of mainly Luos) is still a government secret to this day. The luo who threw that chair will forever remain unknown, but the person he threw it at was President Kenyatta. The chair did not reach it's mark because one of president Kenyatta's bodyguards intercepted it in mid air and caught it just in time. What followed was that the president's security detail drew their guns and opened fire on the rowdy crowd.
But what had caused tensions to be so high? The answer is the assassination of a man who had never been elected to parliament by Luos. Thomas Joseph Odhiambo Mboya who gained immense popularity that he never had and was never interested in from the Luo only in death.
The consequences of the Kisumu massacre is that the Kenyatta administration launched a propaganda war against a section of its' own citizens who were perceived as the only threats to the Kenyatta presidency. So powerful and effective was this propaganda that even today, talk around President Kibaki about the Luo is very similar to the talk during the Kenyatta administration. And it is also clear that ODM-Kenya will lose a substantial amount of votes to Kibaki if it's candidate is Raila Odinga. Sad, a terrible tragedy, but true.
Kumekucha has come across some confidential documents involving a well known presidential candidate. Read them here in this blog tomorrow. Don't miss Kumekucha on Monday.
Wife cuts off husband's penis flashes it down the toilet.
The surprising real reason why more and more Kenyans are having steamy extra-marital affairs
Woman Murders Her Best Friend To Steal Her Husband As Science Proves That It Is Deadly For Women To Have Casual Sex
How Kenyans can now easily start a lucrative Internet business from any remote part of Kenya for only Kshs 100/-
A recent analytical piece in the Standard newspaper has told Kenyans what is already clearly written on the wall. And that is the fact that we are headed for a Raila versus Kibaki showdown. (Read the Standard story for yourself).
This is exactly what Kenyan politics has been all about since the referendum. Everything else has been a side-show.
It is interesting that in while two Luo candidates would feature prominently in elections in an area with large numbers of Kikuyu voters in 1958, a similar contest in a Nairobi constituency in that pits two major candidates, namely a Kikuyu and a Luo against each other would end up causing chaos. I have in mind a contest between former Mungiki leader, Ndura Waruinge and Raila Odinga in Langata constituency.
The whole problem started in 1969 when a Luo threw a chair at a prominent Kikuyu in Kisumu. The resulting death toll (of mainly Luos) is still a government secret to this day. The luo who threw that chair will forever remain unknown, but the person he threw it at was President Kenyatta. The chair did not reach it's mark because one of president Kenyatta's bodyguards intercepted it in mid air and caught it just in time. What followed was that the president's security detail drew their guns and opened fire on the rowdy crowd.
But what had caused tensions to be so high? The answer is the assassination of a man who had never been elected to parliament by Luos. Thomas Joseph Odhiambo Mboya who gained immense popularity that he never had and was never interested in from the Luo only in death.
The consequences of the Kisumu massacre is that the Kenyatta administration launched a propaganda war against a section of its' own citizens who were perceived as the only threats to the Kenyatta presidency. So powerful and effective was this propaganda that even today, talk around President Kibaki about the Luo is very similar to the talk during the Kenyatta administration. And it is also clear that ODM-Kenya will lose a substantial amount of votes to Kibaki if it's candidate is Raila Odinga. Sad, a terrible tragedy, but true.
Kumekucha has come across some confidential documents involving a well known presidential candidate. Read them here in this blog tomorrow. Don't miss Kumekucha on Monday.
Wife cuts off husband's penis flashes it down the toilet.
The surprising real reason why more and more Kenyans are having steamy extra-marital affairs
Woman Murders Her Best Friend To Steal Her Husband As Science Proves That It Is Deadly For Women To Have Casual Sex
How Kenyans can now easily start a lucrative Internet business from any remote part of Kenya for only Kshs 100/-
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