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Unfortunately most folks who read this blog and then leave comments here are currently based outside the country. (My own quick survey recently, showed that a significant percentage of locally based readers never leave comments, some because they do not know how to, but most because the culture of blogs and comments is yet to fully catch on within the country.) So being able to properly gauge the mood in the country at the moment becomes fairly difficult.
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Also published today
Why this presidential elections may open up old wounds that never healed
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Little wonder that most of our commentators are still preoccupied with their favorite candidates and tribal and selfish interests when all signs are that the country is rapidly sliding into anarchy.
If the Mungiki versus Matatu touts and divers skirmishes in Kiambu appear to be of no consequence to you (although the death toll is now approaching double digit figures). And if the land clashes in distance Mount Elgon are somewhat boring and the information you have on them is scanty. Then the most recent eruption of violence in Bura, Coast Province and the election related violence in Magarini constituency as the country prepares to go into a by-election only a couple of months before the general election, should make you sit up and pay attention.
Then we must remember that in the very recent past, we have had politically-and-tribal-related violence in the Mathare slums that left scores of innocent and poverty stricken Kenyans dead. There have also been serious chaos in Kibera, the largest slum in East and Central Africa that have left at least half a dozen persons dead.
All this is taking place long before the election campaigns proper starts. So what will happen when the 9th parliament is sent o it's final recess and constituency parliamentary seats are officially declared vacant by the electoral commission?
There is this joke newspaper writers are fond of making in their first articles after the general elections where they usually welcome back into the country those who took refuge outside the country during the polls. This time it may not be that funny because all the signs point to Kenyans having the most violent elections ever. Chances are that Nigerian elections will be made to look like a picnic at Uhuru ark in comparison.
There is one particular aspect I have been warning about for almost two years now. Reglar readers of this blog must have grown tired of me saying that the country is not yet ready for a Luo versus Kikuyu presidential candidate contest. Two years ago I predicted that that is the direction we are headed. And if comments in this blog are representative and if we can half-believe the numerous opinion polls that have been published in recent times then it is clear that we are headed for a Raila versus Kibaki battle as the two main presidential candidates. Kalonzo Musyoka supporters reading this will complain that I am biased against their man. But opinion polls (which this blogger does not believe) have consistently shown Musyoka's support slipping. My opinion is that that support has never been there in terms of enough numbers to start with.
However another truth we must all face soberly is that outside ODM-Kenya, Kalonzo Musyoka is a non-starter for the presidency. However if he were to be chosen the ODM-Kenya candidate, he stands a better chance of dethroning Kibaki with the support of Raila and all the other ODM-Kenya heavyweights. What I mean is a better chance than Raila would stand.
Sadly a Kalonzo candidature would also mean a more peaceful election because the issue of Luo versus Kikuyu for the highest office in the land would be avoided. Alas, my view is that Kalonzo would make the worst president Kenya has ever had, worse even than Kibaki. The country is bound to sink down to the level of the constituency he has represented for a long time now.
Personally I would vote for peace every time, and would thus be forced to hope for a Kalonzo candidature in ODM-Kenya and I would then vote for Kibaki. Sadly this is the thinking amongst a growing number of Kenyans. It is the saddest thing I have ever had to write because as I have said here many times, nobody deserves the presidency more than Raila.
What I see happening however is that Kalonzo will lose his bid to be the ODM candidate, will cry foul and leave the party, probably with one or two heavyweights (because he and Moi have done their homework thoroughly). That will leave Raila Odinga as the main opposition candidate and the result will be violence and death on an unprecedented scale right across the country.
Kumekucha has come across some confidential documents involving a well known presidential candidate. Read them here in this blog tomorrow. Don't miss Kumekucha on Monday.
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And u forgot something in ur list in the last sentence-----A big loss and dismal performance ever recorded by "The main presidential candidate". That 2 % margin between Raila and Kalonzo has u people now talking of how more popular Raila is than Kalonzo? Face the truth guys, A raila Kibaki contest will be so one sided that Kibaki may as well go on vaccation during the campaigns. I still maintan that Raila is a non starter when it comes to presidential elections. Kalonzo has said time and again he will support anyone who beats him FAIRLY in odm but if the nominations are "overwhelmingly unjust" then the odm thing may as well go to hell. If that happens, u may just expect all the credible candidates in ODm (Read Uhuru,Ojiambo and Umar) to follow suit.
ReplyDeleteThese are the dynamics u should expect in the event of a stage managed nomination: In comes Charity Ngilu(Three months b4 loosing in Kitui central)and out goes the three credible leaders in ODm. This KAlonzo led group will join hands with Muskari Kombo to counter the ODM presence in Western. My predition is that Kibaki will win with a BIG margin if this happens. He will be followee very distantly by Kalonzo (Who may even have the unwanted William Ruto going by the latters incessant attacks on the dictators in ODM). Closely behind Kalonzo will be the luo candidate called Raila Odinga who will have managed to do one thing , Take Musalia Mudavadi to parliament. In order to avoid the chaos and disorder Kibaki witnessed in his first two years as president, he will craft a post election coalition with Kalonzo, Kombo nd Uhuru. This is not the best situation possible but it is what we shall be seeing shortly
I know everything about Kibera constituency aka Lang'ata but i can bet Chris you know nothing about Mwingi North apart from what u read in the tabloid called standard. First to say that Kibera is the largest slum in East and Central Africa is an understatement, Kibera is the largest slum in the WHOLE WIDE WORLD. Their mp for the last 15 years is the so much "DEVELOPMENT MINDED AND PRO CHANGE" Raila Odinga.
ReplyDeleteI will tell those who care to listen that Mwing North is far much more naturally arid than all constituencies in Eastern province but they have the largest supply of clean water at least in Ukambani. Kalonzo may not be the best mp alive but one thing is for sure, he has done better than raila as an mp.
Tell us what Raila would do if he woke up one morning and found himself president and stop all this "Standard like" propaganda against Kalonzo. We know all this stems from the fact that Kalonzo has refused to play second fiddle to the "HOLY" saviour of Kenya. Does Kalonzo have a contract that he should support him? Mkitaka propaganda ngonjeni the october to december period and as usual u will alays cry foul
First off, the only clear point, as in most of your entries, is that you are desperately campaigning for Raila.Like you've finally brought yourself to agree with my other comments,(for the first time, you wrote sense. You still got a long way to go), Kenyans in Kenya don't blog or read anyone else's blogs.Sadly, we Kenyans abroad don't vote. Consider other means you can use to reach out: Standard newspapers and KTN are looking for the kind of crap you are trying to get around, if you don't already work with or for them.
ReplyDeleteSecond, you hail opinion polls if and only if they put Raila ahead of Kalonzo??Bullshit, man! KTN/Standard do that, too.
Third,you'd really help us by asking ODM to rid the country of outdated 'democracy' (read consensus.
Last, let Kenyans decide!
Has anybody nticed this? Opinion poll results are now standards front page news because Raila is registering the unenviable 17%. Blogs like this are callimg Kibaki and Raila the big two, what crap? VERY predctable. Kalonzo's supporters feel like crying when their man polls anything less than 30% while Raila's are helter skelter because of 17%. Front page news eh?
ReplyDeleteMborothe, please write about issues that are factual. Firstly, Kibera, with an estimated 800,000 persons is not the largest slum in the world. Mumbai claims the largest slum in Asia – Dharavi home to about a million people. Rio de Janeiro’s favelas slums – with nearly 1 million residents is the largest in the world. The Governments of India and Brazil, unlike our government of Kenya, has undertaken significant slum upgrading and as we speak, Dharavi residents have been enpowered economically and are now a leading exporter leather goods (finished products) to European markets and generating much needed revenues for themselves and their government. On the other hand, because the MP for langata is unfortunate enough to be a Luo and a leading opposition figure, our government has constantly frustrated moves by UN Habitat to upgrade shelter and sanitation to the kibera residents. The same government has even have gone as far instigate tribal clashes against its own people. One Mungiki leader, a well known criminal, mass murderer, and jail-bird, has been earmarked to "tame" the stubbon Luo hecklers in Kibera. Some of these fires that frequently break-out in slum areas are deliberately started so as to displace poor Kenyans. My little knowledge tells me it is the governments duty to uplift the standards of living for its people - not the MPs. Moreover, I can tell also tell you, Kibera residents are living in far much much better standards than those from other shanties in Nairobi, eg. Mathare, Mukuru Kwa Njenga, Mukuru Kayaba, Korogocho, etc. These slums are not located in Langata constituency and I wonder if MPs in these areas can be blamed for growth of these shanties that have now grown up to Nairobi's JKI Airport perimeter fence near embakassi! There was also a time when the Moi Government developed high rise residential flats for slum dwellers in Kibera (and Pumwani) in the 1980s. Can you tell me why Kikuyus, through their corrupt city hall councillor kinsmen, are the majority landlords in these high rise estates and why rent for these houses have been escalated beyond the ability of slum dwellers? And can you also tell me - why Kikuyu's are the major "landlords" in the Kibera slums? How were they allowed to develop shanties and charge exorbitantly for them, in public land that belongs to government and that which colonial government originally set aside to settle poor people? Obviously, they had the support of the Kenyatta government and now Kibaki's government to continue to dominate other non-Kikuyu Kenyans politically and economically. That, I can assure you, is not going to happen as easily as you think.The world is changing and citizens know what their rights are.
ReplyDeleteVikii, you are within your rights to support Kalonzo or whoever you feel you want to support. You certainly have no right to determine the suitability of "that luo called Raila". You seem to have a developed an extreme phobia for Raila (or should I say hatred?) to the point of insinuating that he is not fit to seek an elective office in Kenya. I wonder why? Is he not a Kenyan or is he not a human being? You have given us enough predictions about how Kibaki will romp home in December 2007 for another five year term. Fair enough, lets wait and see just as we waited and saw in the constitution referendum. I have been reading your posts in this blogger and I am yet to read to tell me why the fellow does not deserve to stand to be elected as president of kenya and unfortunately you have NEVER given any tangible reason why you fear this man. Molasses Plant? Uncircumcised Luos? Corrupt? Links with Bishop Deya? I have constantly read about all these issues and I am still not convinced. Why does the poor mwananchi attend his rallies? Why does he continue to receive international democracy awards? Why do other foreign heads of government honour him? Maybe you have the answers.
For Kenyans, I would say this: The war in North Eastern Uganda as well as that in Southern Sudan have their origin in similar unfair dominance and inequalities that are so much evident in Kenya. The japadhola, acholi and dinka communities are closely related in culture and language to the Luo of Kenya. I am not saying Luos should take up arms in Kenya and fight for their rights, but you can be sure that Southern Sudan will vote overwhelmingly in their 2011 referendum to secede from the Sudan as the war in Uganda will not stop until the central government starts to treat Ugandans peasants from the East/North like human beings.
Is chris a standard propagandist? he keeps on prisindg standard n KTN as if we kenyans dont know what content to choose and which media house to listen to!!!!
ReplyDeleteI know quite a large number of local 'bloggers'. I am one, and very much on the ground. Incidentally, I spent the whole of last week in Mwingi North - but that is a story for another day.
ReplyDeleteToday I want to take a bullet for this character called Chris and his Kumeckucha. Every political post gets very emotional comments, as expected, especially by Kenyans abroad. [I have asked Chris before to ‘moderate’ abusive language before but I respect his decision to keep them]. Aside from the insults, we also read how Kumekucha is biased every time a positive word is said for certain candidates.
My take is that:
• Its naïve to think/expect that media companies/journalists do not have interests, we only hope that their coverage would be balanced and based on facts. We can also hope that their interest is broader than political parties and individuals, that their interests are visions, ideas of a great country. That is rarely the reality.
• The Standard Group has therefore every right to take a side. And everyone has a right to respond to an opinion mentioned in the SG. But then it would also be fair to appreciate that the other papers like the Nation also have interests that they are pushing hard. If we agree, then is seems unfair to expect and accept that all the rest can push for their interests save the SG. We cannot deny that the DN was very critical of Moi’s govt and openly supported Kibaki’s esp during the referendum. If Kibaki loses and the current crop of MP’s are in the opposition, and DN goes on supporting them, will that make them ‘gutter’ or ‘tabloid’?
• Having said that most media in Kenya has taken sides for or against certain personalities, in my opinion its clear that Chris has taken a side for Kenya. A lot of what is written at Kumekucha is balanced, perhaps biased against poor myopic leadership. I read many Kenyan political sites/blogs – many are trashy, some openly campaign sites, but pretend to be serious, but NONE has taken the on going clashes as a serious matter. Nobody is talking about our history, from whence we came, what happened around independence and what effect it has on our perceptions today. At the same time trying to introduce Kenyans into global business. I have some issues with Kumekucha, but none of them relates to bias.
Lastly, I am scared of tribal hatred and what it has done for African countries. Kenyans seem to think that they are immune to all the instability problems other Africans are used to. In the last 5 years, Kenya has become more polarised tribally. Moi, for all his faults, did not make Kenyans hate Kales. This govt. has managed to do that in 3 years flat. The anti-kikuyu sentiment is strong on the ground, even among close tribes like the Kamba. If this govt tried better to include other Kenyans, and the people around the president reduced their superiority complexes, this country would be half way there.
The economy is not the problem if, even with ministers like Maitha, Kamanda, Karume, and all the ex-Moi ministers (Kalonzo, Saitoti etc) – Kibaki could turn it around in 2 years, I doubt anyone else would be unable. It was not magic. Magic is holding a country together.
So the question is who can do that?
I will respond to u Phil and this is for free. If u really understand what u are talking about u will confess that my comparison of Mwingi north and kibera was a response to a paragraph in the initial posting by Chris. Before my eyes and brain u are not bigger than Chris in any aspect because every time people differ with what u guys think is right u are always up in arms. U do not need additional lenses to read the last sentence of the third bottom paragraph. It reads like "The country will sink down to the level Kalonzo has represented for a long time now" What the fuck are u telling me now? That Lang'ata constituency being the urban constituency it is better off than Mwingi north? Plz dont tell me that And if u are so educated to know that the mps have a zero role to play in uplifting the living standards of their employers why the hell did u not respond to Chris's insinuation that a kalonzo presidency is a recipe for poverty? U are not fresh from heaven my friend and i have read your post as many times as you have read mine. It doesnt require rocket science (I am quoting u and Chris) to see who is more narrow minded than who hre.
ReplyDeleteYou have gone to the extent of putting words out of the moon into my mouth. When did i ever say circumcision plays a role in leadership? This is stupid, every time someone says he doesnt support raila u guys are always up shouting into our ears that we are saying that because Raila is luo and subsequently uncircumcised. My brain capacity is bigger than that dude. U cannot use intimidation that cheap to change my mind.
I said the luo candidate meaning after the exit of Ruto, Kalonzo and Uhuru the support of ODM will be in Nyanza only, just the same way a Kalonzo candidature wud be a kamba affair the moment he puts up his own presidential bid. U can go tell all that crap of anybody having a Raila phobia to the dogs Phil. Ngilu is even sebt from statehouse to go help ODM come up with the weakest candidate and that is Raila yet u guys think anybody fears him. GIVE ME A BREAK. who said i should agree with all that propaganda u write here?
well well well, that was boiling rage Bw. Vikii and I hope and pray that Phil managed to jump out of the eye of your sharp sword. Both of you brothers have the right to mouth any unprintables and I will defend your right to explitives but please guys for the sake of decorum and information spare us the raw rage lest you sent an e-missile to my screen next time.
ReplyDeleteLet us tackle issue and moderate emotions without going personal. I hope I am wrong but I fear I am right that both of you lost the plot by going for each other's jagular. At the risk of fueling your wrath, I urge you guys to reason and stop shouting.
Taking arguments personal is akin to dancing lame to copyrights oblivious of the melody of the original composition. I have frequently read both your posts guys and this episode shamellesly betrays your standing and intelect to say the least. We can do better than the villagers who end up drawing daggers on behalf of our selfish politicians spewing nothings to incite us while they sip champagne in hotels their so-called supporters cannot spell live alone knock its gates.
Chris must call a cease fire lest I fire him myslef. Over to you Chris, act fast please or we get consumed in our collectively exported 'villagerism'.
The biggest ever study of international urban conditions discovered that one billion people live in absolute squalor, without water or sanitation, public infrastructure or security of tenure. The research was carried out by the UN human settlement programme, UN-Habitat, based in Nairobi, Kenya. The Kibera district of Nairobi is the largest slum in the world, containing approximately three quarters of a million people. The Dhavari area of Mumbai (formerly Bombay) and the Orangi district of Karachi, Pakistan, are only slightly smaller. In West Africa the Ghanaian city of Tema harbours the Ashaiman slum, which has grown larger than the city proper.
ReplyDeleteThis is for u Phil. All this information is all over. I dont want it to appear like i am engaging u but i thought u should know i am not about to accept smalltime tutorials from fellas like u.
6:50 PM
"Sadly a Kalonzo candidature would also mean a more peaceful election"...I find your blog an interesting read but the word "sadly" in my opinion is not very appropriate. There is no glee in violence, or setting a precedent of thoughts of violence.
ReplyDeleteThis is not a spiteful opinion but just a readers feeling...
I quote you "The country is bound to sink down to the level of the constituency he has represented for a long time." . Now Chris, is this a fair assesment of Kalonzo's Presidency should he get it ? I don't think so. You and I know that Kitui and most of Ukambani lacks the basic natural resources of all which is water. Water is life. Past government regimes of which I don't deny Mr. Musyoka being part of have overlooked this part of Kenya that needed serious investments on water projects.The area regardless who leads it unless is the primary focus for any regime is bound to sink dowm as you have said.
ReplyDelete