Why A Ruto Presidency Was Always Feared

 I discussed why a William Ruto presidency is feared more than a Raila Odinga presidency in Kenya. Many viewers agreed and asked me to elaborate. This episode delves deeper into why Ruto’s presidency evokes such fear.

Why Raila Odinga’s Presidency Is Feared

To understand the fear surrounding a Ruto presidency, we must first examine why Raila’s potential presidency has long been controversial. During the 2002 elections, Raila Odinga’s National Democratic Party (NDP) merged with Daniel arap Moi’s KANU to form what some called "New KANU." It was widely rumored that Moi intended to back Raila as his successor. While this is difficult to confirm, Raila’s later actions suggested he believed he was promised the presidency. However, powerful forces within and outside KANU opposed Raila’s ascension.

Moi’s trust in Raila stemmed from a long history between the Moi and Odinga families, which dates back to pre-independence Kenya. In 1978, when Moi became president, he attempted to revive the political career of Raila’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. However, powerful forces thwarted these efforts, reflecting the mistrust some groups had toward the Odinga family.

The 1982 coup attempt further heightened fears surrounding Raila. Despite his alleged involvement, he escaped severe punishment, thanks to his father pulling political strings. During the Kibaki administration in 2003, Raila surprised many when he opposed efforts to prosecute Moi for corruption, despite having previously been critical of the former president.

Raila’s Political Journey and the Roots of "Railaphobia"

Raila’s political moves, such as leading a walkout from KANU after Moi endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta for the presidency, demonstrated his influence and unpredictability. In the early 2000s, the term "Railaphobia" emerged, reflecting the deep-seated fear of Raila among certain groups, particularly in the Mount Kenya region and Western powers. This fear was partly rooted in perceptions of his links to communism during the Cold War, despite his democratic credentials. Raila’s unpredictable alliances and strong grassroots support made him a polarizing figure.

Why William Ruto’s Presidency Is Feared More

Despite the longstanding fear of a Raila presidency, William Ruto’s potential leadership evokes even greater concern among various groups. Ruto rose to prominence during the 2007 elections, emerging as the undisputed kingpin of Rift Valley politics, surpassing even Moi’s influence in the region. His role in negotiating the 2008 peace accord and the 2010 constitution cemented his position as a powerful and unpredictable political figure.

Ruto’s unpredictability is one of the main reasons he is feared. For example, despite playing a key role in shaping the 2010 constitution, he later opposed it during the referendum. Such moves have made political elites and external forces wary of his intentions. In contrast, Raila, though controversial, is considered more predictable in his policies and approach.

Rift Valley Politics and Mount Kenya Fears

Another factor contributing to the fear of a Ruto presidency is unresolved tension between Rift Valley and Mount Kenya communities, particularly after the 2007–2008 post-election violence. Some Mount Kenya residents in the Rift Valley have expressed concerns about their safety and political freedom under Ruto’s leadership. These fears were highlighted during the 2017 elections, where local leaders warned of potential consequences if voters opposed certain candidates aligned with Ruto.

Conclusion

Both Raila and Ruto have been polarizing figures in Kenyan politics, each eliciting fear for different reasons. While Raila’s presidency is feared due to historical and ideological reasons, Ruto’s unpredictability and grassroots clout make his presidency a more significant concern for powerful political and regional groups.