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Thursday, November 29, 2012

What Legacy President Kibaki?

In a few weeks from now (and not soon enough for some) President  Mwai Kibaki will ride into the sunset. Actually the whole problem is that the president’s exit from State house will not be as simple as that this time round.

Most analysts and observers are certain that when Kenya’s third president leaves office he will suddenly find himself entangled in all kinds of legal problems including a summons from the International Criminal Courts (ICC) at the Hague.

But his possible legal problems aside, now is a good time to ask what kind of legacy the Othaya legislator will leave behind. How will he be remembered? How will he compare to his predecessor President Daniel arap Moi in the eyes of historians?

In politics perception is everything but my guess is that you read this blog for a little more than that so let’s start with the hard facts.

Under Mwai Kibaki Kenya has changed a great deal and  a solid foundation has been laid for future rapid development. The CDF program for instance started under Kibaki’s presidency and despite numerous reports of looting and mismanagement of the fund the truth is that it has had a real impact on the lives of many Kenyans in many corners of the republic. The country is also better managed and the infrastructural achievements under Kibaki are nothing short of breathtaking the crown in the jewel being the recently completed Thika super highway.

Admittedly this president’s achievements have been overshadowed by his laid back management style that often left a dangerous leadership vacuum in a young nation that has been accustomed to seeking leadership and direction at every turn. Not to mention the kind of unprecedented nepotism that makes Moi look like a poor imitation. But most of all this is a president who will stand out in the minds of millions of Kenyans as the one under whose watch the country slipped into its’ darkest hour yet when in early 2008 chaos erupted after a presidential election whose real winner is still a deep mystery.

The bottom line is that Kibaki will be remembered not for his achievements but for what went wrong in the country during his tenure. Many will never forget that he went on national television to tell lies about his personal life and deny his second wife and family. Not exactly the kind of character that would inspire confidence let alone in the highest office in the land.

Supporters of the president will be quick to point to the fact that it was one Raila Odinga who messed up what would have been Kibaki’s peaceful and productive tenure by putting the country on a permanent election campaign mode shortly after the 2002 polls when Kibaki reneged on the MOU (memorandum of understanding) that his faction of the national Rainbow coalition had with Kibaki’s faction. Although there is plenty of truth in that allegation you can be sure that folks will hardly analyze the Kibaki presidency in those terms in the years to come. Rather what will be brought into sharp focus will be his failings as a leader and of that there is plenty. In fact the early Kibaki years were nothing but a collection of blunders. Still the biggest mistake this man made was to refuse to accept the people’s verdict during the 2007 general elections and his failure to protect the lives of innocent Kenyans after that when all hell broke loose.

And saddest of all most will want to downplay the fact that it was under President Kibaki that the country got a new constitution. Hardly surprising when the same President Kibaki has been at the forefront of undermining the very constitution he worked so hard to deliver to Kenyans.

At best the Kibaki presidency will be seen as one with many contradictions at worst it will be used as an example for many decades to come, of the disaster that can result from the poor management and decision-making ability of any leader or manager.

Raila's Epitaph: Inspired G7, Lost 5 to Become G1

They came breathing political fire and brimstone packaged as a potent G7. In no time the real owners G2 took charge and Kenyan politics has never been the same again ever since.

The mad season of political coalitions is here. The December 4, 2012 deadline promises to see to may political moves and counter mover Kenyans may as well be left in a delirium.

But one political fulcrum whose main joint has been left unhinged in PM Raila Odinga. The captain of is seeing the hitherto MV ODM capsizing faster than the might Titanic did exactly 100 year ago.

Not for lack of trying, far from it. Raila remains the most formidable politician in Kenya. But the sheen that madehim unbwogable in 2007 has come off.

Politics is a fickle game. So much perishable is politics that Raila cannot just recreate the superlative force he was in last elections. Maybe those who STOLE the elections from him knew that he never be the second time lucky.

Make no mistake, Raila's lack of grinding force does not necessarily translate into shoe-in for the Uhuruto victory. The coalition of the accused will soon come tumbling like the Tower of Babel. The ICC glue holding them together is like wax now that the new-found bravado is cheating them to fly near the sun.

The folly of making the next election a referendum on the ICC will backfire in all directions. Forget rants from cheap pundits always lurking online to pounce on breaking news with glee as analysis.

Make no mistake, no amount of political laundering will cleanse the evil duo from CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY.

Back to Raila. The son of Jaramogi would do himself a favour in retracing his steps. But again time is not on his side. The present business of cobbling tribal alliances will only succeed in polarizing Kenya more.

While Mudavadi has been left high and dry after being fooled to decamp from ODM, Kalonzo will never tire telling Kenyans they owe him plenty. So trinity vices of embarrassment, false pride and misplaced sense of entitlement will not see the birth of any formidable third force.

So as we polish Raila's political epitaph in golden letters, secure your vantage seat, fasten your straps and brace yourself for a long and eventful political duel in the next 100 days.