What Kibaki Is About To Do To Ease Grand Regency Pressure

Muta-do?

The Anglo Leasing scandal which happened during President Kibaki’s first term and where Kenyans lost billions of shillings is now long forgotten.

But what should interest Kenyans more is what was done to cool off things then because history is about to repeat itself on hapless Kenyans.

Those who know the president are well aware of the fact that he is very slow to make decisions. This has both advantages and disadvantages as any good manager will tell you. One of the huge disadvantages is that in our fast-paced world of today delayed decisions can be disastrous. But I digress. What I wanted to say was that at the height of Anglo Leasing, there was pressure for days which turned into weeks and finally the Finance Minister then Daudi Mwiraria resigned over the still unsolved scandal. This was followed by the resignation of the then energy minister Kiraitu Murungi (whose voice was clearly heard in one of the Githongo tapes asking the ethics PS to go slow on Anglo leasing culprits). Note that the two ministers were not sacked. They resigned.

It was not lost on close observers that both ministers had sworn never to resign (just like Amos Kimunya has done. In fact he has said that those calling for his resignation should themselves resign). But after a brief meeting with the appointing authority they emerged with a different mind set. The president hates to fire anybody and that is a serious management weakness.

The resignation of a cabinet minister was unprecedented in the history of Kenya at the time and therefore the public was very excited and happy. The end result of this was that information released later on the Anglo Leasing scam was mostly ignored. Kenyans never got to the bottom of Anglo Leasing and Mwai Kibaki survived to fight another day.

We all know what happened next. The two gentlemen sneaked back into cabinet after being given a clean bill of health by the anti corruption jokers led by one Aaron Ringera.

Now folks, watch carefully. The same thing is about to happen. This is almost a certainty and the only thing nagging the president’s close advisors now is whom to replace Kimunya with. Yep, shifty-eyes-blind-side-winger Amos Kimunya is going to be used as a sacrificial lamb.

But what must really be nagging Kibaki insiders is the fact that there is the annoying possibility that the ODM arm of the coalition government will push for one of their own to take over at Treasury which will in fact be a very smart move because it will appease ODM supporters who will no longer be interested in getting to the bottom of this Grand Regency saga. PNU chaps will then just fall into line. Or divert attention by making noise about the appointment. Perfect. Just perfect. There are too many possibilities in the star-studded ODM camp for the Finance portfolio starting with Prof Anyang Nyong’o.

The other advantage of appointing from ODM is that it may just cause this 6 month marriage to be finally consummated. Very strange marriage this coalition thing, imagine there has been no sex happening! What kind of marriage is that?

And so Mwai Kibaki will survive yet again.

Muta-do?

P.S. I am certain of one thing. Mwai Kibaki has lots of regrets over decisions that he made last year in the run up to the ill-fated presidential elections (including the current Grand Regency thing and many other issues that will emerge in due time. But if you want to know them early you can read my latest raw notes).

I am sure he has fantasies all the time about the comfortable slow life in retirement that he would have been enjoying at Othaya now while Raila Odinga would have been sweating it out by now and seeing his popularity dip from some very high and impossible expectations Kenyans had. Problems like the current oil price crisis and rising food prices would have ensured a very rocky beginning indeed for the ODM government. The people would have been saying that Kibaki’s rule was better. I can almost see some MPs making noise in parliament about President Odinga and saying that he does not know any economics like Mwai Kibaki did.

But alas last year Mr Kibaki did not want to go down in history as the first one-term president ever in Africa, nothing else mattered. Now he has to pay the price.

Life is really fascinating ain’t it?

Breaking News at 6:22 PM

Parliament has just unanimously passed the motion of censure against Finance Minister Amos Kimunya. A sweating Kimunya at one point even had to invoke his wife and daughter in an emotional defense that lacked substance. The drama continues to unfold. The big question is will kenyans get the answers or will the resignation of Kimunya close the chapter?

Is this a coalition government or are these two separate governments?

It's now six months since the events of December 2007 made necessary the formation of a coalition government. In that time, a lot has happened that makes it necessary for us to wonder whether Kenya's is truly a coalition government or two separate and unequal governments.

Here are the pertinent issues.

1. After the elections, it was my understanding, and that of most Kenyans, that one of the most critical issues that faced the nation was the restructuring of the Electoral Commission of Kenya. There was a man called Samuel Kivuitu who had disgraced himself so irreparably that the only redemptive way out for him was to resign, then be charged with aiding and abetting fraudulence in an election. As things stand, this matter seems to have effectively been shelved by the Kibaki side of the government. What I have to wonder is...by agreeing to participate in the by-elections recently held, was the ODM side saying Kivuitu is just fine? Is reforming this discredited body still a priority, or must Kenyans wait till we are close to another election before our perpetually shortsighted politicians sense that this matter could lead to another meltdown?

2. The matter of the constitution was supposed to be a top priority. Indeed, it was the understanding of Kenyans that the government was going to move with speed to address the many issues our constitution fell short on. Land Policy. Distribution of resources. Gender equality. Religious freedom. Six months later, what we've witnessed is the PNU side, led by Amos Kimunya, reading a budget that failed to allocate any funds for this critical exercise. The question again is...what's the ODM storyline here? Are we waiting for 2011 to start scrambling? It will be the biggest failure of leadership if the PNU side hoodwinks us and successfully sends Kenya to another election under the unrepresentative constitution.

3. The IDPs were supposed to have been settled by now. What in the world are our brothers and sisters still doing in the cold and the unforgiving rains of the season? Where is the money that was allocated for the exercise of settling these folks, and why can't the exercise be commenced and done with the competence and compassion it deserves? Six months later? Shame on all of us! But again, where is the ODM on this matter? Are we waiting for 2011, when we are looking for the votes of these suffering mothers and fathers? Where is action, folks?

4. The final urgent matter is the amnesty issue. On this, we know that the Kibaki side of the government wants to prosecute what they call criminals. The Odinga side wants to forgive and foster reconciliation. These are two visions that have a bearing on the future of our nation. Like I've always warned, the Kibaki team is hell-bent on scapegoating the small man for the election debacle. To the PNU, everything would have been just fine if Kibaki's theft of the election had gone unchallenged and the Mungiki was given a free reign. Well, to ODM's credit, this is a matter that has been pursued with gusto. But that's not enough. At some point it must be made clear that there is a time limit to the call for amnesty. The ODM must let Kenyans know what steps will be taken if the other side of the government insists on punishing the small man and letting the real criminals go free.

Those are the big four. Indeed, it would be enough if from here on out, the two governments concentrated on resolving those four issues only. Those issues are enough to occupy us till 2012. If we don't get them right, God forbid that we should face another election so soon!

That said, here are the other arising matters.

a. The Cabinet

It's now clear that while folks in the PNU side are engaged in corruption on a grand scale, like the harrowing sale of the nation's landmark hotel, the folks in the ODM side are asking questions and working to stop the blatant looting going on. Does the fact that the Hon James Orengo was out of the loop on a matter of this magnitude inspire your confidence as a Kenyan? Hhmm. And you still call this a coalition?

b. Permanent Secretaries

Once upon a time we were told that this was supposed to be a 50-50 government. But when the two principals got behind closed doors and presented their list of PSs to the nation, what we saw was anything but a 50-50 split. We also saw a bunch of oldies. I understand and applaud the pragmatism that led the Prime Minister to swallow this bitter pill, but this matter aptly demonstrates the fact that what we have is two governments.

c. Diplomatic Assignments

It seems to me like once again the folks who were in these positions were merely affirmed. Where are the 50% that represent the ODM in the world's capitals?

d. Corporate Appointments

Again, point a finger at the 50% that represent the ODM.

As usual, I expect to be called an inciter and all manner of names for slapping the facts on the table. But if we don't deal with these matters on an honest basis, we'll only be fooling ourselves. Facts have a way of coming back to kick the butt of those who ignore them. So based on what has transpired in the six months, fellow Kenyans, what I see is two separate governments, one more powerful and more corrupt, the other less powerful but more patriotic.

For the sake of Kenya, I pray that the patriots will have an upper hand.

For Love of Country,

Guest post by Sam O. Okello

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