Monday, January 15, 2007

Is Kalonzo The Soft Underbelly Of ODM-Kenya Unity?

It has now emerged that Kalonzo Musyoka could be the thorn in the flesh of ODM Kenya (Orange Democratic Movement) and if his recent behaviour is anything to go by, if the long predicted split happens then the Mwingi North MP will be fully responsible for it.

In a meeting last week to formulate the best way of electing their presidential candidate, the diminutive politician with an inflated ego, mainly brought about by controversial opinion polls favouring him, walked out on the second day claiming he had to address a campaign meeting elsewhere leaving all and sundry asking where the priorities for the former foreign affairs minister really were.

Many of those in ODM have confirmed to this writer that Kalonzo feels that the ODM ship is doomed if he is not elected as its’ torch bearer and on many occasions he has been saying behind closed doors that Raila can’t beat Kibaki due to the arithmetic of ethnicity. While there may be plenty of evidence to confirm this, the big problem here is Kalonzo’s attitude and the fact that he would end up being the sort of lame duck president that would make Kibaki look like a hero.

According to Kalonzo, Raila being a Luo can not secure votes from outside Nyanza and this will ensure that Kibaki wins a landslide victory at the detriment of the ODM who have several presidential candidate options like himself, Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi.

Musyoka has little time for the likes of William Ruto and Najib Balala whom he sees as political greenhorns.

Kalonzo could turn out to be his own worst enemy as his arrogance and approach to ODM politics could alienate him and deny him the opportunity of running this country. His only chance would be to swallow his pride and accept the ODM presidential nominee even if its not himself. Alas, it seems that it is already too late for that.

Chances are extremely high that Raila will win the ODM presidential nominations and taking into consideration the grassroots support he enjoys in the party, it is also the governments and Narc Kenya’s will that Raila contests the presidency as they see this as the best way of ensuring Kibaki's re-election as Kenyans. They are stuck in the belief that Kenyans usually vote on ethnic lines and there is a lot of suspicion among other tribes in voting for a Luo president.

Musyoka will probably leave ODM in a huff after loosing the presidential nominations and maybe forge an alliance with disgruntled elements from other parties as chances of him vying for the presidency as an independent are slim as he does not have the financial resources to bank roll a presidential campaign.

If this turns out to be the case, Musyoka will never make it to State House as he will be isolated by the political class and contrary to popular belief that Musyoka is a hot favourite to take over from president Kibaki later this year, the Mwingi North MP is too optimistic for his own good and should not let the incredible opinion polls findings go to his head.

Apparently, Musyoka's biggest opposition comes from Ukambani where the locals accuse him of having done nothing for his community in spite of being in government for almost two decades.

Those who know the real Musyoka say he has never helped anybody apart from relatives and close friends with others saying they prefer health minister Charity Ngilu to Musyoka since during her brief stint in government, Ngilu has sought employment for several kinsmen from Machakos to Makueni district and assisted others get promotions not to mention the plum jobs under her ministerial docket that she has shared out among the Kamba community.

For Kalonzo, he has never been associated with assisting people and on the contrary, he has been in the forefront of ensuring powerful Kambas in the Moi regime were sacked like the former head of the public service Philip Mbithi and former treasury permanent secretary Joseph Mbindyo.

Needless to say, his Mwingi North constituency is among the most backward and least developed in Ukambani and the country apart from being also plagued with insecurity as bandits and cattle rustlers roam the area with impunity. Some of his constituents sleep on trees and have deserted their homes in fear of sporadic attacks by bandits.
I could bet my arm and leg that if the past of Kalonzo Musyoka is anything to go by, the Mwingi North MP is not about to take over the country from president Kibaki come December and even Raila Odinga has much better chances than the diminutive soft speaking legislator from Ukambani. And again, they say pretenders are worse than murderers.

Citizen Weekly Editors To Vie In 2007 General Elections

Every Monday in Nairobi, large crowds of people are seen scrambling at the news stands in the afternoon to catch a glimpse of the latest edition of the citizen weekly newspaper, which not only provides juicy gossip about the ruling elite but also covers scandals rocking the Kibaki administration.

The weekly has gained popularity over the past year as it covers stories that the mainstream media cannot touch including the philandering lifestyles of the high and mighty who have in more than one occasion been caught in the city's red light district picking prostitutes most of whom are minors.

Behind the controversial publication that has been raided by police even in the Kibaki era is one Thomas Alwaka who was formerly an editor with a party owned newspaper, the Kenya Times. His able assistant is Willy Kimanzi who does the editorial and has his own column in the publication, which is said to have a circulation of over 20,000 copies weekly.

On several occasions, police have raided the offices in Nairobi looking for Mr Alwaka but in most cases, the slippery editor has not been found and has the probity of rushing to his lawyer who escorts him to the police stations or the law court to seek orders to have the police stop harassing him.

Unfortunately, on the dark side, the publication has on several occasions been used as a weapon to settle scores among the ruling elite who pass on real and imagined stories about their rivals accompanied with cash tokens to the publishers and this has dealt a big blow to the credibility of the newspaper.

In some instances, the employees of the newspaper have been accused of blackmail and soliciting for cash not to print damaging dossiers about certain prominent people but all these are mere allegations as non of them are yet to be taken to court with such accusations.

Surprisingly, both Alwaka and his deputy harbor political ambitions with the former said to be gunning for a parliamentary seat in western province, namely Emuhaya while Kimanzi aspires to be a civic leader in Kibera in Nairobi which is the slum area in Langata constituency represented by presidential hopeful Raila Odinga.
The duo have rubbed shoulders with the high and the mighty in the course of their work and it is really not surprising that they have decided to plunge into the murky world of politics where anything goes. Not to mention the fact that Kenyan politicians are among the best paid in the world, enough cash incentive to attract most Kenyans.

Kibaki Is Waiting For ODM Split, To Call Early Elections

According to the Kenyan constitution, the president has the power to dissolve parliament and call for general elections whenever he feels like it. Many feel that President Kibaki is bound to use this as his weapon to catch the opposition unawares and guarantee himself re-election amid mounting pressure from Kenyans to kick him out of office.

The popular belief among the political class is that Kibaki is waiting for ODM Kenya to complete their presidential nominations which he expects will ultimately cause a major split in their ranks. This will favor Narc Kenya, which will openly accept the ODM losers and even offer them ministerial positions in the next government all in a desperate bid to ensure that Kibaki is re-elected.

It is also common belief that the government has its spies in ODM who are feeding the Kibaki administration with all the intended moves of the opposition to the effect that those in power can anticipate decisions taken by the opposition before they are even made public which is a big advantage when it comes to waging a propaganda war.

Majority of Kenyans are not against Kibaki for his policies or his leadership skills but for the simple reason that he has allowed tribalism to rear its ugly head in his administration and the fact that he has so many elderly grandpas managing key sectors of government yet majority of those who voted for him are the youth.

President Kibaki is known for not being decisive but his advisors and handlers are known to be overzealous and forthright to the extend that they often arm-twist their proposals through to take vital decisions which in most occasions are not popular with majority of Kenyans who feel that the president is being held hostage by his increasingly influential kitchen cabinet which consists of men above 70 years with extremely selfish interests.

Prior to the 2002 elections Kibaki is on record as saying that he would only rule for one term and begged the leading lights of NARC to allow him be the presidential candidate on the understanding that he would not seek re-election after completing his first term. All this was also in the memorandum of understanding that has long been trashed in the dustbin by Kibaki.

Plenty of water has flowed under the bridge ever since Kibaki took over and besides kicking out of government those who propelled him to power, he has reneged on several unwritten agreements he made with other members of the ruling coalition which has caused a lot of discontent among most Kenyans.

His most recent move that has incensed the opposition is the recent appointment of electoral commissioners which Kibaki went ahead and appointed without consulting the other political parties as per agreements made during the inter party parliamentary group meetings in president Moi's era.

This move was taken very badly by the opposition who now accuse Kibaki of rigging the general elections in advance by selecting his cronies to head the all-important commission that supervises elections.

To make matters worse, Kibaki has chosen to remain silent over the issue and has left it to his foot soldiers to justify the appointments to the chagrin of the political parties and civil societies who have vowed to vote him out for his betrayal.

The country's leading weekly newspaper, the Sunday Nation has also predicted that the polls could be held earlier than expected while others say the recent moves by the Kibaki administration is to cause anxiety and panic among the opposition ranks and prompt them to make hasty decisions with devastating results so as to ensure Kibaki returns to State House amid confusion among those opposed to his lackluster leadership that has been plagued by scandals and self-created crisis’s.
Despite all the tricks that Kibaki and his henchmen are using, it still will not be easy for Kibaki to be re-elected as his government is getting more unpopular by the day as his cabinet ministers who are notorious for political blunders continue to soil the governments name through irresponsible rhetoric and bad behaviour in public not to mention the astronomical salaries and allowances they draw from public coffers in a country where about 70% of the people live below the poverty line.