Somewhere in the up-market Nyali residential area of Mombasa, is a smart and yet huge residential home belonging to a Kenyan who likes to keep a low profile. It is whispered in the neighborhood that workers frequently leave after only a short time in employment. They complain that the bad tempered employer often scares them by threatening to kill them whenever they make a small mistake in the course of their work in the house.
The name of the foul-tempered employer is James Mungai. Some of the older residents in the area know only too well, who James Mungai is. Or rather who he was.
This man was once one of the most powerful men in the land. Yet he was only an assistant commissioner of police in charge of Rift Valley province during the Kenyatta administration. He was rumoured to have been related in some way to President Kenyatta. His arrogance was legendary. He would keep traffic held up for hours on end as his crossed a busy highway riding on a horse.
James Mungai made the life of one Daniel Arap Moi (then vice president) hell. It is said that once when Moi arrived from a foreign trip, he insisted on searching the Vice President for "concealed weapons” he had brought into the country. The search called for the then VP to strip naked and bend over (I kid you not). Little wonder that Mungai fled the country when Moi took over power after the death of President Kenyatta in 1978. He later returned and after being briefly held, was released. Whatever people want to say about Moi, the former president has a big heart to have forgiven Mungai for the terrible things the man did to him.
This was the kind of behaviour going on in Kenya when Charles Njonjo was the powerful AG and a member of Kenyatta’s kitchen cabinet. Njonjo more than anybody else promoted the propaganda politics against the Luo community that promoted tribalism and kept Raila Odinga’s father, the late jaramogi Oginga Odinga from making a political come back shortly after the death of Kenyatta.
Charles Njonjo is the one who looked the other way as Mungai harassed the Vice President of the Republic Of Kenya. He looked the other way as massive landgrabbing and looting was carried out by those close to the centre of power.
How he can have the cheek to emerge from retirement to start talking about his concern for tribalism in the country is not only ridiculous but the stuff of dark comedy. What is Raila Odinga upto chasing after Njonjo? It is a well known fact that President Kibaki and Njonjo have never liked each other, so is Raila trying to goad the President?
Whatever the reason, Njonjo should shut up and be grateful that he is not in some prison for sins committed against the people of Kenya… at least not yet.
=======
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See also Problem Tribes in Kenyan politics
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Sunday, October 22, 2006
Jakaya Kikwete's Tanzania In Deep Crisis: Prepare For The Worst
This blogger has been deeply criticized in the recent past (see the post in this blog with the highest number of comments by far) for being biased against Tanzanians and the government of Jakaya Kikwete. I have taken this very seriously because despite whatever shortfalls this blog has, one thing that it has achieved is a reputation for accuracy. Biased views and news are not consistent with accuracy.
It is for this reason that I have remained tight-lipped on any Tanzania news or comment for an extended period of time now. I have even resisted the urge to comment on the current phase of collecting views from citizens of the three nations on the proposed East African Federation (my view is that the nation of Tanzania holds the key and at the moment they all see integration and a federation as a threat).
The truth is that I deeply love the nation of Tanzania and my closest friends are indeed Tanzanian nationals. It is a nation that I understand very well. My conscience has been eating away at me as I have remained silent in the wake of unprecedented events which have been unfolding in that nation. Events that will soon explode into a full-blown crisis for all to see.
Considering the numbers (albeit rapidly dwindling) of Kenyan nationals in Tanzania and the fact that Kenya is the second largest foreign investor in the country, anything that happens in Tanzania is of deep concern to Kenyans and this Kenyan blog.
It is said that President Kikwete receives hundreds of SMS's on his cell phone every day from ordinary Tanzanians and sometimes even finds time to reply to some of them. If this is true then it dismisses the widely held view that the man is a victim of bad advisors because it would mean that he is directly getting the views of ordinary folks on the ground.
Recently the government has gone on a massive unprecedented campaign to demolish all illegal structures in a move that has ruined many small traders and entrepreneurs, not to mention the livelihoods that have been affected. There is of course nothing wrong with cleaning up a city except for two critical issues in this case;
1) The timing
2) The Implication on the Tanzanian economy
Coming at a time when the country has been going through a crippling 12 hour dawn to dusk electricity rationing regime, the demolitions which have been simultaneously carried out in every corner of the city, including low income and slum areas have caused untold suffering to millions of ordinary Tanzanians who have been depending on them for a livelihood.
The implications on the Tanzanian economy go way beyond dramatically increasing the unemployment numbers. In a country where there are no supermarket chains or units targeting ordinary folks, the demolished structures have always been the main sales outlets for a wide range of fast moving consumer items. What this has meant is that industries grappling with power rationing have also found themselves facing a sudden drop in sales caused by the elimination of tens of thousands of distribution outlets across the city.
But by far the most worrying aspect of the whole Tanzanian crisis is the reaction of the administration. There has been a deliberate effort in recent times to release positive economic figures and news on the performance of the economy. Most of the figures are from last year and not the last 10 months that President Kikwete has been in power. There was a unique exception last week when it was revealed that the government's debt had in 9 short months (from January to September, this year) shot up by a staggering $302 million to a total of $9.383 billion. The main culprits, experts say are "unrestricted domestic borrowing and unnecessary foreign debts."
With all due respect to the highest authority in the Tanzanian nation, the governments' lukewarm response to the deepening crisis has caused many, including this blogger to arrive at only one chilling conclusion. That there is a lack of understanding and grasp of fundamental economics, and the impact of decisions being made on the economy of the nation, at the highest level of decision-making in the country.
How else would you explain the following;
a) A deliberate and aggressive campaign against foreign domination in various areas of the economy including hunting and mining, at the beginning of the year, that clearly sent jitters across the investment community in the country. Did nobody see the impact this was going to have on investor confidence? Has nobody in this government been able to link this to the rapidly depreciating Tanzanian shilling (caused mainly by capital flight?)
b) The decision recently to have the BOT (Bank Of Tanzania) release massive amounts of foreign currency into the market in a bid to stabilize the Tanzanian shilling. Did nobody in government understand that this was a futile exercise without dealing with the structural causes of the depreciating shilling? Like restoring investor confidence amongst those investors already in the country, and dealing with the power-rationing crisis? As it is, a day after the release of massive amounts of dollars by BOT, there was a shortage of dollars, a tell-tale sign that there were massive transfers of forex out of the economy still going on.
c) The decision to go ahead with the demolition of semi-permanent structures in every corner of Dar-es-salaam when the economy was already reeling from the crippling power rationing regime. Did nobody in government see the impact that this would have on the economy?
What To Expect In Tanzania Over The Next Few Months
a) Rate of crime will shoot up dramatically triggered by loss of income from both the current electricity rationing and the demolishing of structures used by traders.
b) Tanzanian shilling will weaken further against major foreign currencies.
c) Many foreign investors will continue their strategic retreat, causing further weakening of the local currency as a result of capital flight.
d) A political crisis of sorts will result that will put enormous pressure on President Jakaya Kikwete’s government.
(Tomorrow: How The Current Power Rationing Was Caused By Corruption In High Places.)
=======
Join in the raging debate over this thorny Luo-Kikuyu relationship issue
(Please scroll down to the bottom of the page (and click on the "Post A Comment" button) to post your comment.)
========================
See also Problem Tribes in Kenyan politics
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It is for this reason that I have remained tight-lipped on any Tanzania news or comment for an extended period of time now. I have even resisted the urge to comment on the current phase of collecting views from citizens of the three nations on the proposed East African Federation (my view is that the nation of Tanzania holds the key and at the moment they all see integration and a federation as a threat).
The truth is that I deeply love the nation of Tanzania and my closest friends are indeed Tanzanian nationals. It is a nation that I understand very well. My conscience has been eating away at me as I have remained silent in the wake of unprecedented events which have been unfolding in that nation. Events that will soon explode into a full-blown crisis for all to see.
Considering the numbers (albeit rapidly dwindling) of Kenyan nationals in Tanzania and the fact that Kenya is the second largest foreign investor in the country, anything that happens in Tanzania is of deep concern to Kenyans and this Kenyan blog.
It is said that President Kikwete receives hundreds of SMS's on his cell phone every day from ordinary Tanzanians and sometimes even finds time to reply to some of them. If this is true then it dismisses the widely held view that the man is a victim of bad advisors because it would mean that he is directly getting the views of ordinary folks on the ground.
Recently the government has gone on a massive unprecedented campaign to demolish all illegal structures in a move that has ruined many small traders and entrepreneurs, not to mention the livelihoods that have been affected. There is of course nothing wrong with cleaning up a city except for two critical issues in this case;
1) The timing
2) The Implication on the Tanzanian economy
Coming at a time when the country has been going through a crippling 12 hour dawn to dusk electricity rationing regime, the demolitions which have been simultaneously carried out in every corner of the city, including low income and slum areas have caused untold suffering to millions of ordinary Tanzanians who have been depending on them for a livelihood.
The implications on the Tanzanian economy go way beyond dramatically increasing the unemployment numbers. In a country where there are no supermarket chains or units targeting ordinary folks, the demolished structures have always been the main sales outlets for a wide range of fast moving consumer items. What this has meant is that industries grappling with power rationing have also found themselves facing a sudden drop in sales caused by the elimination of tens of thousands of distribution outlets across the city.
But by far the most worrying aspect of the whole Tanzanian crisis is the reaction of the administration. There has been a deliberate effort in recent times to release positive economic figures and news on the performance of the economy. Most of the figures are from last year and not the last 10 months that President Kikwete has been in power. There was a unique exception last week when it was revealed that the government's debt had in 9 short months (from January to September, this year) shot up by a staggering $302 million to a total of $9.383 billion. The main culprits, experts say are "unrestricted domestic borrowing and unnecessary foreign debts."
With all due respect to the highest authority in the Tanzanian nation, the governments' lukewarm response to the deepening crisis has caused many, including this blogger to arrive at only one chilling conclusion. That there is a lack of understanding and grasp of fundamental economics, and the impact of decisions being made on the economy of the nation, at the highest level of decision-making in the country.
How else would you explain the following;
a) A deliberate and aggressive campaign against foreign domination in various areas of the economy including hunting and mining, at the beginning of the year, that clearly sent jitters across the investment community in the country. Did nobody see the impact this was going to have on investor confidence? Has nobody in this government been able to link this to the rapidly depreciating Tanzanian shilling (caused mainly by capital flight?)
b) The decision recently to have the BOT (Bank Of Tanzania) release massive amounts of foreign currency into the market in a bid to stabilize the Tanzanian shilling. Did nobody in government understand that this was a futile exercise without dealing with the structural causes of the depreciating shilling? Like restoring investor confidence amongst those investors already in the country, and dealing with the power-rationing crisis? As it is, a day after the release of massive amounts of dollars by BOT, there was a shortage of dollars, a tell-tale sign that there were massive transfers of forex out of the economy still going on.
c) The decision to go ahead with the demolition of semi-permanent structures in every corner of Dar-es-salaam when the economy was already reeling from the crippling power rationing regime. Did nobody in government see the impact that this would have on the economy?
What To Expect In Tanzania Over The Next Few Months
a) Rate of crime will shoot up dramatically triggered by loss of income from both the current electricity rationing and the demolishing of structures used by traders.
b) Tanzanian shilling will weaken further against major foreign currencies.
c) Many foreign investors will continue their strategic retreat, causing further weakening of the local currency as a result of capital flight.
d) A political crisis of sorts will result that will put enormous pressure on President Jakaya Kikwete’s government.
(Tomorrow: How The Current Power Rationing Was Caused By Corruption In High Places.)
=======
Join in the raging debate over this thorny Luo-Kikuyu relationship issue
(Please scroll down to the bottom of the page (and click on the "Post A Comment" button) to post your comment.)
========================
See also Problem Tribes in Kenyan politics
Get more help with you invention ideas by reading this invention ebook by a man who has sold millions of units of his own inventions.
Use Software To Earn Millions From Adsense And Blogger
Saturday, October 21, 2006
Kenyan Presidential Race: Why Latest Poll Is A Fraud
Somebody somewhere is very determined to push forward Kalonzo Musyoka's candidature for President. Poll after poll has put him way ahead of all other candidates. The strange thing about these polls is that they contradict what we all know about Kenyan politics.
In western countries polls like the Gallup poll have impeccable reputations, which they fiercely guard. Gallup have done such an excellent job over the years that polls are generally taken very seriously these days. The problem is that sometimes people forget that the poll that they are looking at is not a Gallup poll. Indeed it is instructive that the guys who have been churning out these controversial presidential polls tried to affiliate themselves to Gallup without the proper accreditation. Gallup would not have it and to date Steadman remains unaffiliated to Gallup. Chances are high that they are unable to match the standards required.
The biggest question mark about this latest poll is why the option of those unsure has not been included. This would reflect the real picture as my own quick sampling shows that at least 40% of the electorate are unsure of who they are going to vote for. This is understandable because ODM Kenya (no doubt the most popular party currently) has yet to name it's presidential candidate.
The other thing that makes me suspicious is the fact that surveys of this nature are horrendously expensive. So who is financing Steadman's quarterly surveys? Could it be some political grouping? This would make the most sense because the power of surveys like these ones is well known by politicians. The vote will always swing in the direction of the candidate that voters feel is most likely to win.
So the big mystery is who is behind this poll and what message are they so keen on selling to Kenyans. One message that has clearly and consistently come out of this poll is the fact that Kalonzo Musyoka is the most popular opposition candidate. Much more popular than Uhuru Kenyatta and much more popular than Raila Odinga. This does not quite make sense. My quick survey puts both Raila and Uhuru ahead of Kalonzo.
It would probably help us in our attempt to answer some of these questions if we asked ourselves a simple question;
Who would stand to gain the most from Kalonzo Musyoka being the main opposition candidate?
All answers point to President Kibaki's camp. The biggest nightmare amongst the president's handlers is a Uhuru Kenyatta candidature. This would split the massive Kikuyu vote (sorry folks, Kenyans still vote along tribal lines). And this time chances are that it would be in favor of the younger Kikuyu candidate.
But there is even a more compelling reason to keep on pushing Kalonzo Musyoka's name as the most popular opposition candidate. The thinking is that any candidate wining the ODM presidential nomination, other than Raila Odinga will split ODM right down the middle. Those who lean on this kind of thinking are quick to point to the last time that Raila was seeking a presidential nomination. This was in the run up to the 1997 presidential elections. The party was Ford Kenya and Raila was running against the late Michael Kijana Wamalwa. The late former Vice President won that one, but Raila did not want to accept the results and moved on to NDP, the party which he used to stand for President. And he in fact ended up surprising everybody by coming a strong third behind Moi and Kibaki in that order.
The truth of the matter is that once Agwambo has set his sites on something, he is unstoppable, an unstoppable tractor (hence the nickname Tinga). So far Raila is the single presidential hopeful who has spent the most campaigning. Not even President Kibaki comes near. Remember the expensive DSTV ads?
Sadly it is not in the interests of the country to have a Kikuyu/Luo face off for the presidency (see the debate on the Luo versus Kikuyu prejudicial rivalry). By the grace of God this has been avoided so far and should continue to be avoided. Kenya is not yet ready for this, temperatures would run too high and any hope of having an issues-centered campaign would vanish.
=======
Join in the raging debate over this thorny Luo-Kikuyu relationship issue
(Please scroll down to the bottom of the page (and click on the "Post A Comment" button) to post your comment.)
========================
See also the 2 Problem Tribes in Kenyan politics
Get more help with you invention ideas by reading this invention ebook by a man who has sold millions of units of his own inventions.
Use Software To Earn Millions From Adsense And Blogger
In western countries polls like the Gallup poll have impeccable reputations, which they fiercely guard. Gallup have done such an excellent job over the years that polls are generally taken very seriously these days. The problem is that sometimes people forget that the poll that they are looking at is not a Gallup poll. Indeed it is instructive that the guys who have been churning out these controversial presidential polls tried to affiliate themselves to Gallup without the proper accreditation. Gallup would not have it and to date Steadman remains unaffiliated to Gallup. Chances are high that they are unable to match the standards required.
The biggest question mark about this latest poll is why the option of those unsure has not been included. This would reflect the real picture as my own quick sampling shows that at least 40% of the electorate are unsure of who they are going to vote for. This is understandable because ODM Kenya (no doubt the most popular party currently) has yet to name it's presidential candidate.
The other thing that makes me suspicious is the fact that surveys of this nature are horrendously expensive. So who is financing Steadman's quarterly surveys? Could it be some political grouping? This would make the most sense because the power of surveys like these ones is well known by politicians. The vote will always swing in the direction of the candidate that voters feel is most likely to win.
So the big mystery is who is behind this poll and what message are they so keen on selling to Kenyans. One message that has clearly and consistently come out of this poll is the fact that Kalonzo Musyoka is the most popular opposition candidate. Much more popular than Uhuru Kenyatta and much more popular than Raila Odinga. This does not quite make sense. My quick survey puts both Raila and Uhuru ahead of Kalonzo.
It would probably help us in our attempt to answer some of these questions if we asked ourselves a simple question;
Who would stand to gain the most from Kalonzo Musyoka being the main opposition candidate?
All answers point to President Kibaki's camp. The biggest nightmare amongst the president's handlers is a Uhuru Kenyatta candidature. This would split the massive Kikuyu vote (sorry folks, Kenyans still vote along tribal lines). And this time chances are that it would be in favor of the younger Kikuyu candidate.
But there is even a more compelling reason to keep on pushing Kalonzo Musyoka's name as the most popular opposition candidate. The thinking is that any candidate wining the ODM presidential nomination, other than Raila Odinga will split ODM right down the middle. Those who lean on this kind of thinking are quick to point to the last time that Raila was seeking a presidential nomination. This was in the run up to the 1997 presidential elections. The party was Ford Kenya and Raila was running against the late Michael Kijana Wamalwa. The late former Vice President won that one, but Raila did not want to accept the results and moved on to NDP, the party which he used to stand for President. And he in fact ended up surprising everybody by coming a strong third behind Moi and Kibaki in that order.
The truth of the matter is that once Agwambo has set his sites on something, he is unstoppable, an unstoppable tractor (hence the nickname Tinga). So far Raila is the single presidential hopeful who has spent the most campaigning. Not even President Kibaki comes near. Remember the expensive DSTV ads?
Sadly it is not in the interests of the country to have a Kikuyu/Luo face off for the presidency (see the debate on the Luo versus Kikuyu prejudicial rivalry). By the grace of God this has been avoided so far and should continue to be avoided. Kenya is not yet ready for this, temperatures would run too high and any hope of having an issues-centered campaign would vanish.
=======
Join in the raging debate over this thorny Luo-Kikuyu relationship issue
(Please scroll down to the bottom of the page (and click on the "Post A Comment" button) to post your comment.)
========================
See also the 2 Problem Tribes in Kenyan politics
Get more help with you invention ideas by reading this invention ebook by a man who has sold millions of units of his own inventions.
Use Software To Earn Millions From Adsense And Blogger
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