Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Insecurity: If The Government Is Not To Blame, Who Is To Blame?

Because this blog is infested with NSIS agents and Kibaki campaign strategists, as is every high traffic site that deals with Kenyan politics, you will often see very convincing reasoning that is easy to take in, in the comments sections.

Reading the comments you will be told that without Kibaki, the Kenyan economy would still be where it was under Moi. (But they will omit to tell you that the very same Moi is a major political strategist in this government and interestingly since he came in, the Kibaki government has enjoyed the most extended and solid stability it has ever had since coming into power.) You will also be told that the Kibaki government's brilliant policies and strategy is the reason why the economy has improved so much.

If you are reading this and trying to find the truth, sober up for a minute and examine the facts on the ground.

For starters the system of accounting used to arrive at the growth rate was conveniently changed in 2003 to the World Bank's (1993 SNA – System of National Accounting). The major thing this new system does is shift the accounting system from products costs to the income element. In simple English it will always make things look better than they really are by focusing on income and ignoring costs.

Sample this, in 2004 using the new system the economy grew by 4.3 per cent. But using the old system it actually grew by only 2.4 per cent.

But I may look like I am splitting hairs here, so let me quickly move on to my main point.

This attitude of government which is nothing short of shortchanging and conning the ordinary wananchi has extended to virtually everything this government does and says. Especially as we head towards the elections. Another extremely annoying claim this improved-booming-economy government keeps on making is that it has created hundreds of thousands of jobs. Figures I heard recently indicated that well over 400,000 jobs have been created annually since 2003. But my big question is how many jobs have been lost? If a million jobs are lost in a year and then 400,000 new ones created, then my arithmetic tells me that the truth is that 600,000 jobs have been lost. But alas, that is not the system of analysis currently being used, we are talking about new jobs created here (are we not?), let the rest go to hell.

But it does not really matter whether you want to believe me or not. And it does not matter what the government keeps on saying and what propaganda they keep on forcing down our throats, already the evidence of what I have been saying here in this blog for a long time is beginning to materialize clearly for everybody to see.

5 more were killed in the Mathare clashes a few hours ago in what is believed to have been a Mungiki revenge attack. There is so much insecurity in the country that thugs dressed as robbers walked into city hall and got into the safes with wielding equipment and stole a number of things. We are seeing images that are a stark reminder of 2001 as Kenyans are forced into refugees status in their own country and some are showing up in hospitals with arrows embedded in their bodies.

As I write this NTV reports that there was a bank robbery in the Momabasa main Postbank where thugs made off with shs 7 million after turning up at the bank at 6:00 am in the morning and posing as security guards.

The government can keep on feeding the public with all the propaganda and plain lies designed to help them win re-election for the President, but just watch and see what will happen for yourself. It will soon be very difficult to even find a place secure enough to hold those propaganda spewing press conferences.

Since this government is not in a position to see the truth, let the next government take careful note of the following; any economic policy that does not have job creation as it's number one priority and (not an afterthought after you have dealt with Raila and ODM) is doomed. As long as we have so many Kenyans jobless and idle and with no hope for tomorrow, mainly because the system favors the corrupt and the big old political names, then there can be no security in Kenya.

P.S. Some people also believe that as we approach the elections, some politicians sponsor criminal activities top raise funds for their campaigns.

What do you think about this whole issue?

Friday, November 03, 2006

Kenya's Time Bomb Is Still Ticking Away, But Who Cares

I came across this blog today that has an excellent piece about the ongoing Chlomodeys case (the white guy accused of shooting dead a black Kenyan and defended by a black Kenyan lawyer with an English accent).

As I read the post, I was reminded of Kenya's time bomb which I keep on talking about here. The ignored long suffering masses. They work hardest but then we go and demolish kiosks and kick hawkers off the streets without giving them an alternative.

This behaviour mainly pushed for by our ruling political class is colonial hangover we can't seem to shake off. Just read the piece for yourself.

The article that brought tears to my eyes.

I rarely recommend other blogs here but I'm going to be a regular visitor to this one...

Kiboro Leaves CEO Seat At Nation Media Group

Baton passed on to 44 year old with long career in the pharmaceutical industry

If former Nation media group CEO Wilfred Kiboro sticks to what he said on Wednesday, this morning, he will be driving his grandson to school and enjoying every minute of it.

On Wednesday Mr Kiboro symbolically handed over the keys to his office to new CEO Linus Gitahi (44) and walked out into the Nairobi sunshine to start his retirement. For many CEOs letting go is sometimes very difficult and indeed past executives of Nation have found it difficult to stay away. Take the example of former group managing editor the late George Mbuguss who when on leave would wonder around aimlessly in town and then find himself in the office. "Just taking a peek to see what tomorrows splash is," he would say, but would end up spending his entire leave in the office.

But for Kiboro, there is no doubt that he will be happy in a way that he is handing over the pressures of the office to somebody else. Mr Kiboro is 62 and at that age the sort of pressure the CEO of the Nation media group has to bear cannot be a healthy thing. More so with the elections around the corner and political wannabes thinking that they deserve extra mileage and special treatment at East African's most widely read daily. And worse still, thinking that they can have it with a little prodding. Not to mention the bullying calls from government heavyweights who read a second meaning that undermines the government in every other sentence.

Mr Gitahi should have no illusions about his leadership and managerial abilities not being tested to the full. Yesterday Kiboro handed over a healthy, prosperous company to him, but Gitahi will have his work cut out to maintain profits. To start with he has to defy the laws of gravity, which say that everything that goes up must come down. In business after years of healthy growth, the dip in profits will always come and Kiboro's exit seems to have been timed precisely with eyes fixed on the growth graph. You can't blame him, who doesn't want to leave with a bang?

The situation on the ground in the media world is also very fluid currently. To start with the exodus from print media to online, which is in full cry in the West has started to slowly but surely show signs of taking hold in this market. The worst hit area is in circulation where it is becoming harder by the day to sustain circulation figures and profits. Circulation has always been the Nation's traditional strength and trusted cash cow, pouring in millions daily in hard cash brought in by newspaper vendors countrywide. The main culprits are the Nation's own online edition which is picking up readers like there was no tomorrow. The management is yet to find a way to translate those rising numbers to equally rising revenues. There have been attempts of course but as of the moment they remain just that, unsuccessful attempts.

It is obvious that print is on its' way out and that the new major battleground for media companies in Kenya is Television. Here the Nation does not enjoy the same supremacy it is used to in print. There is stiff competition and most people feel that competitor KTN, is currently ahead in this game.

In radio Kiss FM and the KBC national service rule, so much so that the Nation radio division has been re-launched several times. It is now called Easy FM.

All in all, Mr Gitahi takes over a ship that is sailing on course but headed straight to some dangerous icebergs capable of tearing the ship apart or at least doing some damage. How he steers this shs 14.8 billion ship with his inexperienced but youthful hand will be the guiding factor and determinant of what will happen over the next 5 years or so, which are bound to be very eventful in the media world.

One interesting aside here, is the policy the Nation media group has always maintained of bringing in an outsider as CEO rather than grooming somebody from within the organization. I wish Gitahi all the best, but incase there are slip-ups, an insider could be brought in to fill the gap. Keep your eyes on the guy who has risen at Nation faster than a NASA space rocket, Dennis Aluanga. (see my earlier analysis).

This policy of bringing in outsiders no doubt has it's merits especially in an organization the size of the Nation media group. However it usually leaves a lot of resentment around. The scenario has many similarities, and is akin to that of Moi bringing in Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred candidate. Few will remember that Kiboro himself was brought in as an outsider to head the company in 1992. The "plastic" smiles told it all at the handing over ceremony on Wednesday as the young 44 year old from "nowhere" came in to occupy the seat that some consider to be the most powerful in Kenya, outside politics.

Read my analysis of the Kiboro reign.

N.B. It is interesting that the Nation group initially reported that the new CEO is 39. In the latest report, he has been reported as being 44. No explanation has been given as to how Mr Gitahi aged 5 years in less months than those years.

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