After roaming up and down Europe in a serious bid to illustrate his international credentials, our favorite son is only leading by 5%. If the elections were held tomorrow, Hussein would loose terribly. Especially if you recognize the fact that white voters usually lie when responding to poll questions in contests where a black candidate is facing one of their own. The other known fact is that a very high percentage of blacks who respond to polls will definitely not vote….if history is anything to go by. Most Kenyans will be pulling doubles so they wont vote. Things are tough folks. Some reputable political analysts have opined that Barrack must be ahead at the polls by 15-20% for him to win the vote by 2-3%.
So what are these Americans trying to teach Kenyans when they reject Barrack? Here we are listening to Condoleezza Rice and trying to emulate every aspect of American democracy, music, style, way of life etc… and they turn around and reject our progeny. Hii ni mambo gani bwana?
How much harder must our guy try? I mean, how can Obash anticipate loosing to a guy who will most likely die in office due to very bad health. Our friend's campaign kitty is over twice that of McCain but he's still being received shabbily. Currently, the political correct reason for anti-Obamaism seems to boil down to his inexperience. The bolder player haters have even started talking about the wife's un-presidential qualities. Some are saying charisma and handsomeness (kama ya Kalonzo) is not going to fix the economy and stop the war in Iraq.
This is what I say; if Obama looses, it will be because the election will have been rigged. I will demonstrate in Washington DC and throw stones relentlessly…or until Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran is called in to mediate the power sharing talks between Obama and McCain. Kenyans must be prepared to send the holy and magnificent cardinal Njue to help in coalition talks. You see, our boy is a Kenyan and he must act like a Kenyan. The way I see it, when the time comes, he should not accept anything less than royal executive premiership with imperial leadership in congress plus chairmanship in the supreme court. No bill shall become law without our (or is it 'his') signature.
What do you say?
I think that it is great that Obama is not leading by double digits. It keeps him humble. The last thing he needs is the fake media over blowing him and then pulling him down.
ReplyDeleteYes we can!
The truth of the matter is that Barack is up against an accomplished American. He would definitely be ahead with double digit margins against any other republican.
ReplyDeleteKalamari, when you look Barack's real achievements as a leader vis-a-vis McCain's, then you will agree with me that Americans are indeed being a little too nice with him. Obama is a talented American, no doubt about it. He is blessed with amazing oratory and virtually every major issue seems to somehow shape out in his favour. But come on, man, what besides oratory, and an amazing education, are his real achievements? You may want to attribute his short resume to his being young, but Bill Clinton, who was younger in '92, had been Arkansas AG as well as being elected governor for four times. Kennedy had a history behind him too. We all love Barack and we want him to win, but we have to admit the voters will be taking a gamble. They say the only person as undefined a quantity as Barack was jimmy Carter and you can see how much Americans hate him today.
About opinion polls, Kalamari, I will not argue with your take on Black voter apathy, but I will tell you these assumptions have proven accurate except on the occassions that they haven't. There are those who attribute Bush 41's loss in '92 to Rose Perot's candidacy, but Blacks' turn out in that election in no small measure helped Clinton. I think the Black voter is more energized today than he was 16 years ago. And don't forget these opinion polls largely proved to be correct during the primaries (with the exception of Carlifornia and a few other states).
All said and done, we are waiting for him to win. I will put my money on him, but I think it will be extremely close, probably something akin to the Gore/Bush contest. It gets especialy tantalizing when you factor in the dynamics likely to be triggered by the third party candidates (Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and Chuck Baldwin). we all should be wishing death to Nader rght now.
2.24, Yes we can. We sure can!
Vikii,
ReplyDeleteSi tu puedes. BO is up against a HUGE odds but come to think of it. True people's success is often compared and mesured with their peers but there are UNIQUE case studies. The genaram AMERRYCANS may not see the difference or gloss over it but it is too stack to miss.
There is always a first time fro everything and while at it no second time for a first impression, YES WE CAN.
How do you reconcile these two statements?
ReplyDelete-Obama is up by 5% in polls today
-Obama would certainly lose if the elections were held tomorrow!
You treat probabilities as though they were certainties and even in the process of doing so, fail to consider all the variables. For instance the assumption that black voter apathy will hurt Obama's chances. Whereas this is true for past elections, there has never been an election where a black candidate had a real chance of winning. You fail to consider the possibility that black apathy is as a result of blacks not feeling as though they have a stake in the elections...which is not going to be the case this time.
Cicero,
ReplyDeleteMos mos, probability is just that CHANCE. Read the post relaxed and see it for what it is. You are right on both fronts on black votes and such posts is designed to makes people come out in droves to disapprove and disabuse that very complacency, if you can call it so.
Recent HIV statistics in Kenya by province;
ReplyDeleteThe survey indicates HIV prevalence in Nyanza at 15.3, Nairobi 9.0, Coast 7.9 per cent, Rift Valley 7.0, Western 5.1, Eastern 4.7 per cent, Central 3.8 per cent and North Eastern 1.0 per cent.
hope molasses Raila does something about his brothers in Nyanza...the thing abt omena for sex is not working well...
hope the likes of Taabu won't call this a PNU thing...read ua standard for more
If my maths is right it will very close, the demo will try to do small time rigging which will provoke republic to rig big time Mac will win and obama will not accept cos rigging will done very open kenyan style, the rest will be just as it was in Kenya so shall it be in USA
ReplyDeleteI think for Barrack to have come this far is an achievement in itself.
ReplyDeleteFolks, this guy seems to be on a history-making streak and am not writing him off just yet.
Of course, it's going to be an uphill task given McCain's experience and, not forgetting the race factor.
While it's true that 'wisdom comes with old age' I wonder why the 'deterioration' factor is often overlooked. In this respect we Kenyans are as guilty as hell when it comes to picking old geezers over inexperienced younger opponents. On the other hand does experience really matter as long as one puts together a seasoned team of advisors?
I don't care much about American politics, what I know is that I want Obama to be the next president.
Puhleeze... he is an AMERICAN... Baba Obama - like a true Kenyan father - abandoned his son...
ReplyDeleteSure, he may visit his paternal grandfather's 3rd wife every so often... or have her airlifted to Washington DC lakini BO remains an American....
As much as i would like Barack Obama to win, i have come to realize that my vote will not count. Love Him passionately or Hate him with a passion, you are stressing yourself and having ulcers for no good reason the Americans will not even ask for your opinion. The closer you will be near a mic is when Alex Chamwada, or Peter Opondo asks you. Then so what?
ReplyDeleteWhat is this Change that i can believe in?
I have just realized that rhetorics will not put food on the table. What i mean Papa Plus is that Yes I can, I can what? just saying it doesn't change the situation on the ground. YOu can by going out and working your butt out.
Words of wisdom Kalamari? Shut up na umeze wembe. Obama is a first time Senator... thus he is ahead. He is inexperienced yes but still he managed to beat Billary and Company... thus he is ahead. It matters not that he is ahead by 5 points... He is still ahead and McCain has yet to pull through to be ahead of Obama. When that happens then you can start talking.
ReplyDeleteYes, they (OB and his supporters/voters) can! He has already shown the power of positive thinking.
ReplyDeleteGentleman
Coldtusker, upende usipende Obama is first a LUO then a KENYAN and then an AMERICAN. I also suggest you change to warmtusker - huenda ika kusaidia ku reason vizuri.
ReplyDeleteKalamari,
ReplyDeleteYou need to tell this to the Standard and Nation people. They have convinced kenyans that BO will win. I dont agree it will be a close election. Mcsame will win with a landslide. The only black man who could have made a serious bid for the presidency was Colin Powell. BO is a candidate for the liberal media (to atone for slavery) and if he was white he would be no where.
Of all stupid empty posts that I've read... this comes right at the top of the worst list.
ReplyDeleteAs I always say to my son, when you got nothing to say, maintain your cool. Kalamari, you don't have to post for postings sake. Think, plan, think again, plan your thoughts, then put them to paper. This posting comes across as the product of a busy mouth idiot.
as usual ur imagination gets the better of u! suddenly u r an expert in us politics!
ReplyDeleteWhen I cast my vote on November 4th, I will be voting in a US election, for an American President, not a "Kenyan" running for US President as a proxy for Kenya.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny how suddenly Kenyans have become experts in US politics, even predicting outcomes and talking about voting trends. Even those who arrived here with steam at the height of Kenya's woes now claim to know how WE will vote because they watched Faux News and CNN during the primaries. If anything, the fact that Obama trounced one of the mightiest political machines in US history should teach us all something.....that we just don't know as much as we think we do.
FYI, Obama was a State Senator in Illinois in the 90's. Contrary to what you think you know, he just didn't show up and get his first stint in politics as the Senator from the Land of Lincoln! If anyone of you "pundits on American politics" was asked to talk about his initiatives in the Senate, you wouldn't even know what to say but you're here "educating" us. Sheeish!
I meant to say State Senator in Illinois going back to the 90's.
ReplyDeleteA day in politics is very long. McCain and Obama still have a few months to go b4 they face each other. Alot can happen btwn now and then. Kutangulia sio, kufika! Didnt Kalonzo start out as a favorable one (during his ODM days of unity)only to pull a "miracle"?
ReplyDeleteGreat post, Kalamari. Keep em coming!
ReplyDeleteThis is something MUCH bigger than Barack Obama. This is a movement away from white, conservative, narrow-world-minded, middle aged, male dominated leadership to a more progressive, wider-world-aware, world-citizen American.
ReplyDeleteThis is the real battle. All those Americans who were born in peace corps camps around the world, in embassies around the world etc have come of age, gained enough critical mass just maybe to wrest power from the status quo. In my opinion, it is much bigger than Obama.
Anon 7.38am. Am in kenya (not us)but are you kidding! who cares about a State legislator. I know BO's State mate Lincoln did not have much of a record but he had served a term in the house of representatives. He was also very much of a national figure, involved in the politics of the day though he failed in a bid for a senate seat. BO really has no record of public service. And here in kenya rao told us that good looks doth not a president make. Am not being biased (i mean the kid looks good and likeable) but i doubt americans will hand over the US millitary to BO during wartime with arabs, with all this talk about his middle name etc. I could be wrong.
ReplyDeletehehehe
ReplyDelete