Followers

Thursday, May 25, 2006

Kenyan Lady may Be Deported From US




This beautiful Kenyan lady who is a student in the United States may be deported soon. Find out why

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Moi's Young Girl Friend

...and The older Mzungu one who went public.

In the last days of the Moi Administration this writer's informant was trying to set up a publishing business in Nairobi and therefore build a sizeable stable of fairly reliable providers of leads for stories and information. The idea was to ensure that his newspaper got off to a flying start with a steady and constant flow of good stories.

One of his sources was a frustrated man who had previously served in the President's think tank that helped win him the first multiparty general elections in 1992 and was still a frequent visitor to State House Nairobi. He provided information and proof for a very big story, but sadly my writer friend could not dare touch it.

The story revolves around the mystery of a very pretty Asian woman who frequented State House Nairobi. It was said that the woman was the President's lover.

About two years after President Moi's retirement, a woman of European origin testifying in the parliamentary select committee inquiry into former foreign Minister Robert Ouko's murder claimed that she had been the fromer President's lover. The former president vehemently denied the allegations.

If both stories were true then it says a lot about the former president's taste as far as women are concerned.

The former President was separated from his wife Lena Moi (now deceased) and this naturally left him vulnerable to all sorts of situations and it is not surprising that there were many rumours doing the rounds in Nairobi throughout his tenure. One particular hilarious one posed the question why there were so many girls' schools named after the former president and hardly any boys schools apart from his very own Kabarak High School set up at his farm, which was a mixed school anyway.

It is instructive that through out President Moi's tenure women did not feature in his political plans at all. The President and Kanu's view of women at the time was not only plain old fashioned but dangerously so. Especially when you consider the very important role played by women in Africa over the last decades. Most African economies would simply collapse if women withdraw enmasse from their activities.

In other words if Moi's comeback into politics is successful, then it will be two steps backwards for the Kenyan woman who has struggled long and hard to come a long way to where she is today.

Do not be fooled by the fact that one of the Kanu candidates being supported by the former president in the forthcoming by-elections for the North Horr constituency is a woman, the widow of the immediate former MP of the area Dr Bonaya Godana, Mrs Sarah Godana. This is a classic case of political inheritance promoted aggressively and perfected by Moi throughout his 24 year tenure. But that is a story for another day.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Daniel Arap Moi's Secret Deal With Mwai Kibaki For Elections 2007?




Former President Moi And President Kibaki: Bossom buddies now or political realists?



Prepare For A Kibaki/Moi Alliance That Will Carry The 2007 Elections

For months now I have been quietly predicting it at this blog (see earlier posts) but even I was not prepared for the events of the last week or so where a casual visitor to the country would be forgiven for thinking that Moi was still president.

But in all the analysis that has followed my own in this blog (technology always makes you appear to be faster), there is one sad fact that everybody has missed. And that is the fact that Moi's return means a return to full fledged tribal politics. That is Moi's specialty and it is what he understands best and what kept him in power for 24 years despite efforts by super powers and some very powerful folks to get him out.

Take careful note of the people the former President was meeting in his meetings in Isiolo and the environs. Mostly tribal elders and clan leaders. Although it is also true that peace has been elusive in this area of Kenya because of the tribal and clan groupings, make no mistake about it, this is Moi politics and he would have done exactly the same in any other area.

It is interesting that despite strong denials by both camps all analysts agree that Moi's come back has the full blessings of the Kibaki administration. Which means that instructions on the ground will be for all possible assistance to be given to ensure a KANU victory.

Now I know you may be getting a little confused. Why should the Kibaki administration want Kanu to win when their party Narc Kenya is participating in the same elections?

The answer is simple. President Kibaki does not have a political party. You see to win the presidency, one requires grass root support. Kibaki got it in 2002 through the Narc coalition, which no longer exists. It is therefore in the presidents' best interests to have a stronger Kanu which he can then form an alliance with using Narc Kenya and end up romping into victory almost effortlessly.

A while back I said in this blog that Moi is the single most serious threat to the emergence of a new younger generation to take over leadership in Kenya. That "threat" has come to pass with Moi's re-entry into active politics and it simply means that the younger folks will have to wait for a little longer to make their mark. The coming election will be a Kibaki/Moi affair.

This is how it will work out.

Narc Kenya will continue with aggressive recruitment and marketing countrywide. But the truth is that they already know where their support is going to come from. And so does everybody else. Just look at where the leading lights come from but leave out Luo Nyanza and most of the Coast province.

Kanu will also strengthen its' position with the full secret backing of government. Then at the last minute the two will come together in a marriage of convenience and easily win the general elections. I am not a pessimist but Kenyans will have to wait for a little longer for the second liberation to fully come to pass.

Elections are all about arithmetic which Moi, a former teacher is very good at. More so tribal arithmetic. The Kibaki/Moi partnership will deliver enough numbers to be unbeatable. Moi will deliver most of the Rift Valley and huge chunks of the arid and semi arid regions which he knows better than anybody else. All indications are that when the ODM fallout is complete, Kalonzo Musyoka will be in the Moi camp. That means that most of the Akamba people (where Kalonzo hails from will) vote for the Kibaki/Moi camp. The Akamba people have proved in recent elections that they are the swing state in Kenyan politics, meaning that whichever side they fall on, will win the elections.

But the arithmetic this time round is such that the Kibaki/Moi camp does not need the Kamba vote to win. In the last elections and in the recent referendum, the Kikuyu voted without their thinking caps. They used their tribal instincts. There is no reason why they will not do the same in 2007. Which means that with Uhuru Kenyatta (who hails from Kiambu, the other major Kikuyu stronghold, other than Nyeri) on Moi's side, most of the Kikuyu vote will go to this alliance.

The opposition under the de facto leadership of Raila Odinga will mostly consist of Luo Nyanza and possibly Nairobi. In fact chances are high that everybody will go it alone and we will have a very crowded field of presidential candidates. Which will include the likes of Ford Kenya's Musikari Kombo. The strategy here is to win enough support to be a viable coalition partner in the next government. This suits the Kibaki/Moi alliance perfectly.

The tricky part is Uhuru Kenyatta's position as Kanu's presidential flag bearer. In the coming Narc Kenya/Kanu alliance, Kanu will present it's presidential flag bearer as President Kibaki's running mate and Vice President in the new government. It is highly unlikely that that candidate will be Uhuru Kenyatta. He will have to step down for somebody else. Whoever that person is going to be, they will not be from the Kikuyu tribe. I hereby present 3 names as possibles. Kalonzo Musyoka, Gideon Moi, William Ruto.

No why would a person as ambitious as Mr Musyoka settle for VP? Good question and here is the answer. The next VP in Kenya is going to be the most powerful in the history of the country because they will be the partner representing the largest political party in the country – Kanu. The next VP will pretty much call the shots because when push comes to shove, all they will have to do is threaten the President with mass resignations.

Next question: But Kalonzo Musyoka is not in Kanu at the moment?

The answer: The key word here is "… at the moment." Find out where Mr Musyoka has been doing most of his campaigns for the presidency. In the Rift Valley of course, which is Kanu country. He can get back into Kanu long before you can finish saying "Daniel Moi".

Next question: I don't see Uhuru accepting to step down for somebody else after all the hard work he has put in.

Answer: You fail to see the whole point of this Kibaki/Moi alliance. It is to save and preserve old (corrupt) money in Kenya. Mr Kenyatta was educated on corrupt money and grabbed land and continues to enjoy his enviable lifestyle based on that money. If the Kibaki/Moi alliance loses, he loses his family inheritance. There is really no decision to agonize over here.

The Impact Of Tanzania's Economic Woes On Kenya

Business Special

All signs and indications (from my contacts on the ground) are that the Tanzanian economy's amazing growth rate of recent years will slow down considerably this year. This is not something that Kenya can afford to ignore as the effects of this are bound to be felt in the entire region.

A number of key players in the Kenyan economy export their products to Tanzania and they should now expect the orders to drop dramatically over the next few months as the Tanzanian economy grapples for a solution from a crisis mostly caused by bad luck. Growing markets in Rwanda and new markets rapidly opening up in Sudan for Kenyan products will not quiet compensate for this drop in many businesses.

The main culprits of the problems in Tanzania are the rising price of oil and prolonged drought that ravaged parts of the country and forced heavy expenditure by government to purchase food to save lives. As bad as the drought was, the former is by far the bigger culprit.

An interesting aside here is that the Kibaki administration has been heavily criticized for maintaining a strong shilling (this blogger has been one of the harshest critics). Yet now Kenyans have a lot to thank the strong shilling for because it has averted plenty of problems by cushioning the Kenyan economy tremendously against the rising oil prices. In comparison Tanzania has not been that lucky and what has happened, is that the high oil prices have helped to further weaken the Tanzanian shilling against major foreign currencies.

There is yet another factor that has now started impacting negatively on the previously rapidly growing Tanzanian economy. Pressure from locals for more job opportunities has forced the government to make policies that are now beginning to have a negative affect on the level and growth of foreign investments in the country.

Foreign companies have found it increasingly difficult to obtain work permits for key staff and as a result have dramatically cut back on their investments and projected growth prospects have slowed down considerably.

A perfect case in point is the Nation Media Group. After the high profile expulsions of key members of its' staff by Tanzanian immigration authorities last year, things have never been the same again at the company's Mwananchi Communications venture that publishes several newspapers in Tanzania. The political message has been very clear – that they would have to hire locally for key positions at the company. Training people takes time and the truth of the matter is that the Tanzanian work force coming out of years of a protected economy and socialism, are hardly up to the task at the moment. They will require a number of years to adjust to the realities of the fiercely competitive corporate world.

Little wonder that the Nation Media group in announcing It's results last year used the phrase "[NMG] shrugged off political problems in Tanzania to record increased profits."

The result is that previous high projections are thrown out of the window and so are planned investments for expansion, resulting in slower growth, which in turn also means that fewer jobs are created in the long term. The situation has been very similar with many other foreign investments in the country. The full impact and consequences of this is starting to show and will soon be even more visible.

It is clear that the authorities In Tanzania will have to make some important and decisive decisions over the future of the country's economy and the direction that they want to take. And they will have to make those decisions pretty fast. Indications so far have been that either the government is still unsure of what to do or former President's Mkapa's policies are going to be revised and changed.

It is also just a matter of time before other East African partner states come to the realization that an East African community that does not include Tanzania will move a lot faster since the ordinary Tanzanian on the ground is greatly opposed to it. This means that Tanzanian politicians at the highest level are very reluctant to implement free movement of labour and goods without which they can be no meaningful union.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

What Is Moi Really Up To?

Will Daniel Survive The Lion's Den This Time Round?



Former President Moi: Old and tiring or the most dangerous man in Kenyan politics today?



I have been insisting in this blog for a long time that former President Daniel Arap Moi is a major force to reckon with and he is destined to play a big role in the upcoming general elections. Some people felt that what I have been saying was a little far-fetched.

Last week the former President made a long trip to Northern Kenya on a tour that covered the Isiolo area and covered major constituencies that will be involved in the upcoming by-elections occasioned by the death of all leaders in the area in a recent air crash.

I have also insisted that the current battle for the Kanu Presidential nomination between secretary general, William Ruto and party chairman Uhuru Kenyatta is a carefully stage-managed affair that will end up with Kanu presenting a different candidate other than Uhuru Kenyatta as their presidential candidate.

Now recent political events are beginning to point more and more in the very direction we have been speaking about in this blog. One thing that many observers of the political scene have forgotten too quickly is that the self-proclaimed professor of politics has lost very few political battles in his life. Not to mention that his popularity at the moment is at an all time high. But even more important is the fact that many do not realize that the 2007 general elections will be the most critical political battle that Moi has ever fought in his long political career.

At stake is not only his legacy but the freedom of his favorite sons Gideon and Philip Moi, who have both been mentioned adversely in the Goldenberg scandal. Moi may be many things but the best description of him remains the one given by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, (father of ODM's Raila Odinga) in his semi-autobigraphical book, "Not Yet Uhuru".

He very aptly and poetically described the tall in stature Moi as a giraffe that was always able to see very far ahead. At least much further ahead than others.

In plain language, if the 2007 general elections goes the wrong way, then Moi's sons will end up in prison and Moi's own freedom will also be in danger. Never has Moi fought a political battle with so much at stake. Nd he has fought many where the stakes were quite high.

In the Kenyatta days, Moi was humiliated beyond belief. One incident describes how after coming back from a foreign trip while still Vice President, he was stripped naked and searched "for concealed weapons" that he may have brought into the country. If you know how inmates are searched for concealed weapons, then you can begin to imagine how this particular search was carried out. Some of the people who mocked and ridiculed Moi then include the then Senior Assistant Commissioner incharge of Rift valley Province, a Mr J. Mungai, who was said to be a very close relative to the then President Kenyatta.

It is even said that on the death of Kenyatta in 1978, Moi got past a road block and headed to Nairobi, by hiding in the boot of a Peugeot 404.

Daniel Arap Moi survived all that. Including a botched up coup that was this close to being successful in 1982. Not to mention two hotly contested multi-party Presidential elections in 1992 and 1997. The man seems to have nine lives. But will he survive this one?

If the country goes the way the wananchi want it to go, then it will end up in the hands of a new generation of younger Kenyan leaders. In all likelihood they will follow the wishes of the majority and prosecute without fear or favor the perpetrators of Anglo Leasing and Goldenberg. Looted property and cash will also most likely have to be returned. This includes large tracts of land "grabbed" by Kenya's first President, Jomo Kenyatta and now in the hands of his family, including leader of the opposition, Uhur Kenyatta.

The people who rule Kenya are having sleepless nights trying to envisage such an occurrence.

Recently "noises" within the main Kanu faction are indicating that Kanu will go it alone in the forthcoming elections. Actually that is not entirely true. What is on the drawing boards behind the scenes is an alliance between Kibaki's Narc-Kenya and Kanu that will happen late into the campaigns and will see the Kanu Presidential nominee steeping down in favor of President Kibaki. That individual will be then be the incumbent's running mate and will be appointed Vice President. Common sense tells you that there is no way that candidate is going to be Uhuru Kenyatta. Both President Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta are from the Kikuyu tribe. To gain wide national support it is important that the two individuals are from different tribes. It will be somebody whom Moi can trust. There is a huge possibility that that person is not even in Kanu at the moment. I hereby submit two names that are possibilities, Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka.

But because the youth factor is going to be very significant in this upcoming polls the probability is higher that the candidate might be William Ruto.

Remember that Moi still has all his mental faculties intact (he is also in much better health than President Kibaki), not to mention his vast experience. And this time he has the advantage of being able to concentrate on only one agenda, unlike the time when he was president when he had to juggle things "to keep several balls in the air at the same time." That makes Moi the most dangerous man in Kenyan politics today. Ignore him at your own peril.

What Cost Wachira Waruru His Job? Was It The Githongo Interview Or The Referendum?

Wachira Waruru, the CEO who brought such sweeping changes to the national broadcaster KBC (Kenya Broadcasting Corporation), that it was hardly recognizable to Kenyans returning home after a short stint out of the country, has been fired.

But he was fired in a very interesting way. He was transferred or re-posted to some obscure government appointment. This is exactly the same way some cabinet ministers get fired. Actually this method of firing was perfected in Kenya by the late Tom Mboya when he was helping to dig his own grave by politically eliminating Oginga Odinga. Rather than being fired as VP, the constitution was changed so that it allowed for 8 Vice presidents, one for each province. It worked and the late Jaramogi father of ODM light Raila Odinga resigned in a huff.

Well, Wachira Waruru might just do that. But the big question is what provoked the government to remove KBC's most successful CEO in history? Was it the balanced reporting over the referndum that seemed to lean towards the popular feeling which was to say "no" to the new constitution? Or was it airing the damaging Githongo interviews. These are the two major incidences being mentioned by observers and analysts in Nairobi, but the truth is that KBC under Mr Waruru did very many things that could have annoyed a corrupt government led by people trapped in a time warp of the 1970s.

If I was a corrupt government and wanted to do some effective damage control, I would not stifle the media. That is the worst possible thing anybody can do. Why? Because people will get interested and the information will be disseminated using much more effective media and with greater impact through mobile phone SMS messages and email.

This government should have learnt their lesson from the Ouko affair in the 1990s. In those days no media house would dare publish the truth and the daring alternative press was yet to emerge in those days. But when an obscure Ugandan newspaper published a very detailed "leak" from the intelligence services of what happened, somebody faxed a copy of the page of that newspaper to a friend in Nairobi. Within a few hours the "Operation Bikini Report" had been re-faxed all over the country and everybody knew exactlyu who had fired the fatal shots that had killed the then foreign minister. More importantly they even knew who was present when the minister was murdered.

You can imagine what is possible in this information age where the Internet and mobile phones rule. Trying to muzzle the press or shuting down a media house is not only out of date it is just plain stupid and short sighted. As is sacking a man who has done such a good job that he deserves to be decorated with a national honor.

The message going forth is clear. Involvement in Anglo-Leasing can gain you promotion and at the very worst the powers that be will fight for you to retain your job inspite of pressure from the public (many Anglo-Leasing suspects are still in office like Vice President Moody Awori). But when you do good job, you endanger your very position.

Message received loud and clear.

Who Is KBC's Wachira Waruru?




Immediate former KBC CEO Wachira Waruru


The first time I met "coach" as he was fondly nicknamed was at Lenana High School in 1978 where he was a sixth former and the school champion in the 100 metres dash. He also put his speed to great use playing rugby on the wing. Sadly he never extended his career to the club level and so many people missed this great talent.

But Mr Waruru had other talents that have stood him in good stead. Trained to be a teacher at Kenyatta University, Mr Waruru instead opted for a career in jourmalism, joining Hilary Ngweno's revolutionary new broadsheet daily in those days, The Nairobi Times as a stringer writing mostly business stories. His copy was so good that most of it got used and he was soon earning more than staff writers, which forced Ngweno to hurriedly hire him on full time basis. Shortly after that however, he Nairobi Times which was losing a lot of money despite its' quality was sold off to Kanu. The political party changed the name of the newspaper to Kenya Times and it was clear that they had no room for Waruru at the paper, because he was viewed as an anti-establishment radical.

Waruru was accomodated at Hilary Ngweno's other publication at the time, the weekly news magazine that shaped the face of journalism in Kenya, the legendary Weekly Review. He started off as a reporter but quickly climbed the ranks to be News Editor and then Managing Editor.

Meanwhile Waruru's other passion, motor rallying helped him build up important contacts that saw him launch his own PR and media consultancy business, which was moderately successful in the short space of time he run it before his appointment as Standard Newspapers CEO. Actually it was his contacts that helped him land the Standard appointment. Movers and shakers at the time like Gideon Moi and Mark Too, both great personal friends of Mr Waruru.

When Waruru's contract run out at The Standard newspapers, he was appointed KBC CEO by the Narc government, a position he has held for about 3 years now, until the recent developments. Wachira Waruru is the son of controversial Nyeri politician and former Cabinet Minister Waruru Kanja.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Habits Of The Aging And Its Impact on Kenyan Politics

My Dad is a handful of years younger than President Kibaki. He still has a very sharp mind and is in excellent physical condition, personally inspecting his acres of maize shambas regularly and on foot.

Rather than leave his vehicle at the edge of the shamba to minimize on the walking, he often leaves it at home.

Still there is no denying the fact that age is catching up. The usual tell-tale signs are there. You forget important names, you move more slowly despite yourself and the tendency is very much towards reminiscing, which tends to bring the most satisfaction. Nothing wrong with this nostalgic tendency and nothing wrong with a man enjoying the twilight of his years, more so when by God's grace he managed to stay out of the Kenyan cancer of corruption. Many of his colleagues who got rich overnight on bribes and corruption are now dead.

But do you realize that I have just described some key elements in the Kibaki administration? This administration came to power with the promise to revive stalled factories (most of them parastatals) and this smacks of reminiscing on the so-called golden era in Kenya of the 70s. (I suppose this was how the government planned to create 500,000 jobs a year.) The president is unable to see the realities of the times. How do you revive factories when the rest of the world is busy downsizing and closing them down? Unlike in the 70s jobs are created these days through small businesses. But then we are always busy frustrating small business by passing all sorts of laws and more quiet bylaws whose intention is to shut down as many small enterprises as possible.

President Kibaki's handling of the economy is one of the greatest achievements of this achievement-starved administration, but at what cost? We have lost one of the country's biggest employer industries, the horticultural sector. Thanks to the super-strong Kenyan shilling. The Kenyan shilling is now so strong that the unschooled would be excused for fearing that one Kenya shilling will soon exchange for one US dollar. But jokes, aside, does the strong shilling reflect reality?

In the 70s the economy thrived on a protected shilling so that when you made a foreign trip you were shocked at how cheap things were (because a traveler always gauges value by directly converting a price to their local currency).

Ask some of my friends how well the economy has done and you could probably be picking a fight. Kenyans have fled to the West using all sorts of ingenious methods (heard of the foreign student who relocates with the entire family? Yep, this student is about 55 years old and intends to study law. Many countries allow this). And where the means do not allow, some have fled to other African countries. Zambia, Malawi, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia. Others to neighboring and now un-welcoming Tanzania, and others to Uganda.

That's how well the Kenyan economy is doing. Watch what happens in the forthcoming general elections when some candidate tries to convince Mathare slum dwellers that the Kenyan economy has thrived under this coalition government.

Meanwhile the old men making decisions in this country are busy reminiscing and wondering why the crime rate is so high and why we can't go back to the lazy, prosperous, heady 70s. And probably why there seems to be so many "intimidating" computers all over the place. Does cabinet minister Njenga Karume have any computer skills (let alone Internet skills)? What about Vice President Moody Awori?

Whatever we do in the forthcoming polls, let's do the old men a favor and send them home to rest and enjoy their twilight years, as some of them go straight to prison for stealing property and cash belonging to the Kenyan people.

Lets vote in a young energetic government. At the very worst, at least things will move a lot faster. Even older voters should seriously consider whether we want to nostalgically shut down our country.

Kenyan Investors Nervous In Kikwete's Tanzania





President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania

Mood affecting other foreign investors as some begin to pack their bags and leave

The writing is clearly on the wall. All is not well in Tanzania. And most worryingly, all is not well with what has been the fastest growing economy in the region for a number of years now.

To give you a sign of the times, as I made a few inquiries before posting this article the Kenyan shilling rapidly continued creeping upwards and is now exchanging at an all time record of One Kenyan shilling to 17 Tanzania shillings. Up from shs Tshs 11 to the Kenyan shilling about a year ago. Signs are that the exchange rate is still rapidly heading northwards.

The Tanazinian shilling has also lost heavily against the dollar and other major world currencies. Some anlaysts fear that this could be partly due to capital flight. Something this infant and fast growing economy can ill afford at this time.

So what's the problem? Actually everything points at the recent change of leadership. The President who almost single-handedly brought more development in 10 years to Tanzania than had happened in all previous years put together, Benjamin William Mkapa completed his term and handed over power to President Jakaya Kikwete.

The new president has done everything to make the foreign investor in Tanzania very jittery indeed. There's been talk of reviewing mining contracts made with certain key investors. Now the latest is that there is a lot of complaints about hunting concessions in the country being dominated by foreigners. Actually these days you will see nothing else in local newspapers but complaints about foreigners.

It seems that already this has had a major impact on foreign investors in the country who were just beginning to recover from a crippling power rationing regime that had grounded virtually all the few industries currently in Tanzania for about a month.

Actually the truth is that the Tanzanian economy is controlled by foreign investors. That was Mkapa's strategy, which worked very well and now that Tanzanians are seeing signs of prosperity in their country for the first time, it seems they want their country back.

One local popular newspaper summed up the situation perfectly when it carried portraits of President Kikwete and former President Mkapa on the front page with their backs to each other. The paper clearly said that the two were as different as day and night. This is probably te most accurate comparison of the two men to appear in any news media in recent times.

Observers fear that the good work done by President Mkapa will be quickly undone by the new administration. The new government's top priority seems to be populist declarations which more stable and locally run economies like those of Kenya and Uganda would be much better placed to make.

The story with nationals of one of the largest foreign investors in this economy, Kenya is a rather extreme case. There are reports of at least two investors having their work permits quietly cancelled and being asked to leave the country and their heavy investments under the full control of their local Tanzanian partner. The quiet policy of not granting any new work permits to Kenyans seems not to have excluded the investors themselves.

The wazees in the Kibaki administration are too busy putting out local fires to address this situation. My source says, that judging by the number of complaints flooding the Kenyan Embassy In Dar-es-salaam, there is no way that word would not have reached the authorities in Nairobi by now.

Although the current situation has affected other foreign investors with some pulling out (the most recent case is the decision by South African Airways to withdraw from their partnership with Air Tanzania) it seems that Kenyan investors are the worst hit.

KQ Mid Air Scare That Nobody Wants To Talk About

Passengers aboard a Kenya Airways morning flight on Thursday (May 4th) flying from Nairobi to Dar-es-salaam went through a terrifying ordeal that forced the pilot to land back In Nairobi barely 10 minutes after take off.

A person on the flight who talked to this blogger said that the first thing they noticed was unusually violent turbulence, which they attributed to the rather heavy clouds. However shortly after the violent shaking started, the pilot came on the intercom and announced that the aircraft was going back to Nairobi. He reassured the passengers that there was no cause for panic and it was only a problem with "leaking hydraulic oil".

On approaching JKIA, Nairobi, for landing my source noticed a very heavy presence of ambulance, fire engines and other emergency personnel on the ground. The aircraft taxied and came to a halt on a runaway very far from the main airport terminus. An attempt was made to tow the aircraft but this failed when the tires gave in and rapidly deflated. As passengers quickly disembarked to be driven to the airport lounge, to await the next flight, my source noticed very heavy leaking of some liquid-like substance that was already flooding the runaway. Some passengers claimed that the pilot had dumped fuel in readiness for a possible crash-landing. But this is unlikely because this is not the way fuel is usually dumped. It is actually "dumped" and not "slowly leaked."

No statement was issued by the airline and no report has appeared in any newspaper or major media house yet.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Is Kikwete Planning To Reptriate All Kenyans?

Recent quiet developments cause concern amongst the Kenyan community in Tanzania. Will history repeat itself?

The new government of President Jakaya Kikwete has hardly been in power for 5 months but already Kenyans living in the country are starting to feel the heat. At first this blogger thought that the developments in the still officially socialist nation of Tanzania is in reaction to the Kenyan domination that is beginning to emerge in many parts of Africa and indeed the world.

Diminishing opportunities back home that started in the dark Kanu days, has led many Kenyans to relocate to many other parts of Africa and the world where their superior educational background and sheer determination is beginning to show. We now have a sizeable Kenyan community in most African countries and in some of them Kenyans are now being seen as a threat.

However evidence on the ground clearly indicates that the Tanzanian situation is quite different.

Impeccable sources have informed this blogger that since the beginning of the year, some prominent Kenyans have had their work permits quietly cancelled and have been asked to leave the country. The same sources have proved to this blogger that the government policy in Tanzania now is that no expired Kenyan work permits are being renewed and new ones will not be issued to any Kenyan. This policy does not seem to affect nationals of other countries, most notably South Africans (mostly white) and expatriates from the West.

Further reports indicate that some prominent Kenyan busainessmen in Tanzania have not been spared and some have had their owrk permits withdrawn and asked to leave their businesses with their Tanzanian partners in corcumstances that are not clear.

What complicates the situation further is that the Tanzanian government's official position when asked about work permits that have delayed for months on end is that they are still being processed. That was the recent answer given by the immigration minister when the question was raised in Arusha during the East African heads of State meeting.

Investigations on the ground indicate that there is now emerging evidence that the style of diplomacy expected from President Jakaya Kikwete, the most popularly elected President in the history of East Africa and probably beyond, is that of saying one thing officially and then doing the exact opposite in practice. Resident Kikwete is the immediate former Foreign Minister for Tanzania. This practice of saying one thing and then doing the opposite is exactly how war-time Germany's Adolf Hitler caught everybody flat-footed by talking peace when he was actually busy preparing for war.

A recent incident where a Briton was denied entry into Tanzania from what appeared to be "instructions from State House, Dar" is illuminating. A few days after this occurrence that was probably just about to blow out into a full diplomatic controversy, local newspapers in Tanzania revealed that there were conmen posing as senior State House officials. Somehow the newspapers were able to get the usually hush hush information that a Briton had actually been denied entry into Tanzania by one of the alleged "conmen".

Maybe the story was true after all, and there were actually conmen operating with close links to Kikwete's State house, but one wonders what the motive of such a conman would have been. What do you gain from denying a Briton entry into the country? The assumption is that conmen are supposed to operate with financial gain as their driving motive.

What most Kenyans on the ground see, is an emerging pattern in the style of leadership of the new President and it seems that one his key agendas is to deal with the "Kenyan problem."

It is clear that Kenyans living in neighboring Tanzania are now experiencing what ODM leader Raila Odinga has been going through for a long time with rampant "Raila phobia" in the circles of power. There is serious "Kenyans phobia" in Tanzania.

Nothing illustrates this better that the recent developments at the country's badly bleeding national carrier, Air Tanzania. About 3 years ago Air Tanzania entered into a strategic partnership with South African Airlines. The latter rudely brushed aside Kenya Airways who had shown an interest in entering into a similar arrangement with Air Tanzania. Now the "marriage" with the South Africans is headed for divorce. But when Kenya Airways (through Precision Air, a privately owned Tanzanian airline where KQ owns 49% of the shares) indicated that they were interested in taking over where SAA left off and injecting the cash required, it caused quite a stir in Dar. It was clear that there was open hostility and opposition towards any such development which culminated in front page newspaper articles quoting "unnamed experts" who said that it would be a mistake for Air Tanzania to be sold to anybody again. They suggested instead that the government pumps in more money and runs the airline. Obviously the so-called experts are yet to hear of 9/11 and the impact it has had on the airline industry which has left very few profitable airlines in the world. In fact Kenya Airways itself is very fortunate to be still in the black. It can be attributed more to plenty of luck, and the right combination of circumstances than to the excellent professional management. Interestingly even SAA that is wholly government owned has not made a profit for the last few years.

But Air Tanzania is a local issue and the Tanzanians have the full prerogative to do what they want with their national carrier. The main point of this post is to paint a clear picture of what is going on, on the ground.

Apparently rumours have been doing the rounds for weeks now, that the government is expected to make a major move against Kenyans living in Tanzania soon. It is not clear what this confrontation is going to be but the rumors have persisted.

This blogger is informed that incase there is a mass ejection of Kenyans from Tanzania, it will not be the first time it has happened. It happened in the 70s and Kenya swiftly reciprocated the move by repatriating Tanzanians then living in Kenya.

My informant may have sounded a little bitter when they made the following concluding remarks;

"Whatever happens, every effort should be made to get the Tanzania government to put its' cards on the table concerning Kenyans living in their country. Maybe Kenyans living in Tanzania should just take the initiative and leave en-mass to help the Tanzanians rid themselves of "the problem". There are plenty of opportunities from more welcoming emerging nations like Sudan and Rwanda, not to mention Malawi and Zambia."

See also why ordinary Tanzanians do not support free movement of labour and the proposed East African Federation.

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Blogger Delays Posts As Big Kenyan Story About To Break

While on some routine research as a follow up to a comment made by a reader in this blog, this blogger stumbled on what has got to be one of the biggest stories of the year.

I delayed writing any post on Thursday and even today. Am currently compiling the posts with information obtained from impeccable sources. This story will shock many Kenyans and will give many non-Kenyans a unique glimpse on what is to come.

Don’t miss it, it will be posted by tomorrow afternoon, Kenyan time.