What Is Moi Really Up To?

Will Daniel Survive The Lion's Den This Time Round?



Former President Moi: Old and tiring or the most dangerous man in Kenyan politics today?



I have been insisting in this blog for a long time that former President Daniel Arap Moi is a major force to reckon with and he is destined to play a big role in the upcoming general elections. Some people felt that what I have been saying was a little far-fetched.

Last week the former President made a long trip to Northern Kenya on a tour that covered the Isiolo area and covered major constituencies that will be involved in the upcoming by-elections occasioned by the death of all leaders in the area in a recent air crash.

I have also insisted that the current battle for the Kanu Presidential nomination between secretary general, William Ruto and party chairman Uhuru Kenyatta is a carefully stage-managed affair that will end up with Kanu presenting a different candidate other than Uhuru Kenyatta as their presidential candidate.

Now recent political events are beginning to point more and more in the very direction we have been speaking about in this blog. One thing that many observers of the political scene have forgotten too quickly is that the self-proclaimed professor of politics has lost very few political battles in his life. Not to mention that his popularity at the moment is at an all time high. But even more important is the fact that many do not realize that the 2007 general elections will be the most critical political battle that Moi has ever fought in his long political career.

At stake is not only his legacy but the freedom of his favorite sons Gideon and Philip Moi, who have both been mentioned adversely in the Goldenberg scandal. Moi may be many things but the best description of him remains the one given by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, (father of ODM's Raila Odinga) in his semi-autobigraphical book, "Not Yet Uhuru".

He very aptly and poetically described the tall in stature Moi as a giraffe that was always able to see very far ahead. At least much further ahead than others.

In plain language, if the 2007 general elections goes the wrong way, then Moi's sons will end up in prison and Moi's own freedom will also be in danger. Never has Moi fought a political battle with so much at stake. Nd he has fought many where the stakes were quite high.

In the Kenyatta days, Moi was humiliated beyond belief. One incident describes how after coming back from a foreign trip while still Vice President, he was stripped naked and searched "for concealed weapons" that he may have brought into the country. If you know how inmates are searched for concealed weapons, then you can begin to imagine how this particular search was carried out. Some of the people who mocked and ridiculed Moi then include the then Senior Assistant Commissioner incharge of Rift valley Province, a Mr J. Mungai, who was said to be a very close relative to the then President Kenyatta.

It is even said that on the death of Kenyatta in 1978, Moi got past a road block and headed to Nairobi, by hiding in the boot of a Peugeot 404.

Daniel Arap Moi survived all that. Including a botched up coup that was this close to being successful in 1982. Not to mention two hotly contested multi-party Presidential elections in 1992 and 1997. The man seems to have nine lives. But will he survive this one?

If the country goes the way the wananchi want it to go, then it will end up in the hands of a new generation of younger Kenyan leaders. In all likelihood they will follow the wishes of the majority and prosecute without fear or favor the perpetrators of Anglo Leasing and Goldenberg. Looted property and cash will also most likely have to be returned. This includes large tracts of land "grabbed" by Kenya's first President, Jomo Kenyatta and now in the hands of his family, including leader of the opposition, Uhur Kenyatta.

The people who rule Kenya are having sleepless nights trying to envisage such an occurrence.

Recently "noises" within the main Kanu faction are indicating that Kanu will go it alone in the forthcoming elections. Actually that is not entirely true. What is on the drawing boards behind the scenes is an alliance between Kibaki's Narc-Kenya and Kanu that will happen late into the campaigns and will see the Kanu Presidential nominee steeping down in favor of President Kibaki. That individual will be then be the incumbent's running mate and will be appointed Vice President. Common sense tells you that there is no way that candidate is going to be Uhuru Kenyatta. Both President Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta are from the Kikuyu tribe. To gain wide national support it is important that the two individuals are from different tribes. It will be somebody whom Moi can trust. There is a huge possibility that that person is not even in Kanu at the moment. I hereby submit two names that are possibilities, Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka.

But because the youth factor is going to be very significant in this upcoming polls the probability is higher that the candidate might be William Ruto.

Remember that Moi still has all his mental faculties intact (he is also in much better health than President Kibaki), not to mention his vast experience. And this time he has the advantage of being able to concentrate on only one agenda, unlike the time when he was president when he had to juggle things "to keep several balls in the air at the same time." That makes Moi the most dangerous man in Kenyan politics today. Ignore him at your own peril.