It Isn’t Over Until The Fat Lady Sings, Raila Tells Kibaki

When former Roads Minister Raila Odinga speaks, Kenyans listen.

He now says that Kenyans should enjopy their Christmas and then prepare for two things early in the new year;

1) A major political announcement
2) Early General Elections, sometimes next year

What must be worrying President Kibaki’s handlers is that this battle-hardened warrior who cut his teeth fighting the solid, unshakeable Kanu regime of Moi in the one-party days when it was illegal to do so, should really have no major problem with the blundering Kibaki government now full of inexperienced cabinet ministers.

So what is Raila up to?

It becomes even more difficult to figure out what the (Orange Democratic Movement’s) ODM’s are really upto because as Raila was speaking in Nyanza this week, his LDP secretary Genral was reading from a different script in Nairobi. Joseph Kamotho said that they would fight the government through parliament and if that failed they would wait for 2007.

Raila and former planning Minister Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o on the other hand said that although the law allowed for a vote of no confidence in parliament, ODM had not discussed that strategy.

Does this mean that the ODM has an inner circle that Kamotho is not a member of? This is quite likely.

So if they are not using parliament what is the other option? Most probably it could be civil unrest and generally making Kenya ungovernable. This can be quite effective at the moment with so many Kenyans jobless and frustrated.

Still with the vast Presidential powers still intact, chances are that the Kibaki administration will somehow limp along until 2007. However, gains made will be hard to sell to the electorate when the elections finally come in 2007 mainly because the administration is bound to be busy putting out bush fires for the rest of their term. Which is exactly what the Raila camp wants to happen.

The truth is that the economy has rebounded dramatically and a number of good things like the free primary education have happened. The political reality is that the Kibaki administration is growing more unpopular by the day with advisors who are too old and still living in the old political realities of the 70s. Worst of all the Muthaiga Club golf-playing close confidants of the President hardly have the market-selling skills required to sell the Kibaki administration’s achievements to the people.
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