Can the Kibaki Administration Survive Until 2007?

Most Nairobians Don't Think So

Listening to Kenyans talking it would seem that the end of the Kibaki administration has come...

What Nairobians are Saying;

Comments received via email (excerpts) …..

"Kibaki has goofed yet again. He announces his cabinet at 8pm and by 10pm 8 asst. ministers have rejected the appointments. Of course Orange has been shut out as expected. Let us see if the Banana govt. will deliver."


"As for the cabinet, I pity Mwai. Anyone in Orange who joins the govt. should know they have dug their political grave. It is as simple as that. People are tired brother -- they know Kibaki is the last person who can lead us to the Promised Land.
We are now waiting to send Kibaki back home now. As predicted earlier, he will not make it to 2007. We are in a whole mess."

Can the Kibaki administration survive?

With the current constitution we see no reason why it should not.

The 3 cabinet ministers will be replaced and life will continue. Things may be a little difficult in parliament but mastering the numbers required for a vote of no-confidence is highly unlikely at this time. Those who will accept appointments will be enough to help defeat any such intentions (we seem to be back to the Moi tactics of survival). Then there is the long period between now and the time parliament meets again – probably in early March. Emotions will have cooled by then and reality will have set in. MPs have not paid off their loans and frankly nobody wants an election now.

But assuming that the Orange team were so eager to get Kibaki out of State House and that they managed to get a vote of no confidence passed in parliament. Immediately after there would be a huge problem in the Orange camp because of a simple question; Who would be the ODM's presidential candidate? Uhuru Kenyatta? Kalonzo Musyoka? Raila Odinga? Musalia Mudavadi? etc. etc.

Still it looks like it’s going to be a very difficult two years for the Kibaki administration until the next general elections slated for 2007.