Tsunami prediction for Kenya

Three incidences have happened in the last few days that should have Kenyans very worried indeed.

Incident One:
The local press reports that opposition leader Uhuru Kenyatta has been visiting State House for talks with President Kibaki. Mr Kenyatta at first brushes aside questions from the press and looks a little surprised at these secret meetings (perhaps leaking).

Finally he talks to the press and makes an interesting comment. He says that he is aware as to who has leaked news of his State House meeting to the press. He declines to name the person. He goes on to downplay the meeting as something very normal. It is normal for the leader of the opposition to meet with the Head of State in any country in the world he says.

Incident Two:
Prsident Kibaki warns a certain unamed leader from trying to incite Kenyans to take to the streets. He wonders why this person does not want to be led. Although he does not name the politician, the press widely interprets it as being Roads Minister Raila Odinga. Actually if you look at the facts and chain of recent events, there can be no doubt as to whom the President was referring to.

Incident Three:
Now here is the chiller. After an earlier widely publicized meeting at the Kibera slums, within his Langata constituency, Roads Minister and defacto leader of LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) Raila Amolo Odinga tells the press that Kenyans should brace themselves for a political tsunami in the country. The minister says that he is forseeing a serious political crisis in Kenya. He pleaded with his cabinet colleagues to sit down and reason together to avert the coming crisis.

At the same time, he denies that he is the un-named politician the President was referring to as inciting Kenyans. He says that the media were putting words into the president’s mouth.

The indications are that the house of Mumbi has once again closed ranks to deal with what they see as the immediate danger and threat to life as we see it in Kenya today. At the centre of it all is the proposed new constitution.

So why should an attempt to introduce a new constitution cause so much trouble?

In a seentence here is the answer; Because it will upset the status quo and transfer real power back to the people. Or as some prominent Kenyans, including the President like to see it, transfer power to no clear place.

Whichever way we see a new constitution, is now rapidly becomeing a peripheral matter. At centre stage is the fact that Kenyans are being taken back to that place where we are being forced to view politics on purely tribal grounds and along tribal lines. Soon it will be which ttribe is in which faction of the coalition?

It is precisely how Moi stayed in power for 24 years despite crazy odds and it is the trump card our current government seems to want to use to ward off any serious opposition and to remain in power, the status quo intact, well beyond 2007.

What do you say to this, the people of Kenya?

Those who understand Kenya’s past well will marvel at the way history has such an uncanny ability of repeating itself.

In 1963 there was another “Kibaki Tosha” man only that at the time it was “Kenyatta tosha” who was very instrumental in sweeping Kanu and Jomo Kenyatta into election victory. Shortly after that independence election victory the man found himself in a position very similar to that Raila Odinga is facing currently. That man was one Thomas Joseph Odhiambo Mboya, actually the greatest political son that ever came out of Kenya’s womb.

That guy proved a little too complicated for the Kenyatta kitchen cabinet to deal with and in the end there was no alternative but for him to stop a bullet in broad daylight on the streets of Nairobi one Saturday afternoon, July 5th 1969. That was the turning point for Kenya. That was the point in history when Kenya turned from the right track and rapidly took to the road that only leads to the dogs. Not so much because of the greatness of the felled man but more so because of his position then and the political circumstances. But more on that later. Later today we will launch a brand new sister blog that deals specifically with political assasinations in Kenya. We will cover in great detail Tom Mboya, JM Kariuki and finally Robert Ouko. We will tell you who killed these illustrious sons of Kenya and why. And most of all how the first two assasinations led to the current political problems we have in Kenya.

The third assasination was very different. It was really more of a personal thing. The truth is that as eloquent as Ouko was in defending the excesses of the then Kanu government, he was a nobody in Kenyan politics. A man who became much more famous and important in death than he ever was while he was alive. One could argue that the first two were felled in the heat of the battle, and if you look at it this way, Ouko was an “innocent weakling” killed in cold blood. That is why it is the view of this writer that the killers of Ouko will be brought to book much earlier. Long before those who were responsible for felling Mboya and Kariuki are caught up with. Visit that blog, which will be launched towards the end of today. Look out for details here.


But for now back to Raila.

The truth is that we are back to 1963. Only that this time there will be NO political assasination (our current crop of top politicians are many detestable things but thank God they are not stupid).

If the situation is not checked however, there will be something much more worse than a single political assasination. What Raila is referring to as a “tsunami”. When elephants fight it is the grass that gets hurt.

Raila and company are bitter that a government that would not have come to power without their help has now sidelined them and gone further to invite those whom they defeated into government.

The Kibaki regime are still living in the 1960s and do not see how anybody can dare challenge their position or dare challenge the President of the Republic of Kenya who knows what is best for all Kenyans and does not want any debate about it because ordinary Kenyans are not intelligent enough to understand these things (Kenyatta’s position exactly.)

The tragedy of the Kibaki regime is that although this may have been just a little true at independence, it is definitely not the case now. For example me and you are ordinary Kenyans and we are reading this blog.

We ordinary Kenyans are much worse off than we were at indipendence. In fact those who were alive during colonial rule will tell you that life then was a picnic in paradise compared to what is happening currently. The Colonial government was much more “people friendly” than any of the governments we have had in Kenya since independence.

Apart from lots of discrimination and not being allowed on Government street (Moi Avenue today) if you were a “native” African, life wasn’t too bad. Many of us would rather the inconveninece of going to River Road and then instead of making your way across town to Moi Avenue for your bus home, being forced to go round Haile Sellasie Avenue. Ironically many Kenyans avoid the city centre at all costs today because of the traffic.

So when Kenyans are living in this kind of hand to mouth situation brought on them by the very politicians they voted into office, the country becomes a keg of gunpowder waiting to explode at the slightest spark.

Am I being alarmist? NO way. If the leader of the opposition crosses the floor so quickly to side with the government on a number of thorny issues then what is the ordinary man on the streets expected to think? Do you think that it will be lost on him that the leader of the opposition and the president are both from the house of Mumbi?

God has been good to Kenya despite some serious problems and even provocation, violence has never broken out. We have come close several times but have survived. But now the situation has changed. Keep reading this blog and we will give you examples to prove our point.

It is not the policy of this writer to be alarmist or to be a warmonger. I love peace and have too much to lose if there is a serious problem. My aim is to get people to wake up and especially our politicians, so as to avert trouble and steer our beloved country back to the highway to development and prosperity that our fathers wandered away from in their self-seeking search for personal wealth.

Thank you for reading. Please keep reading.