Thursday, March 14, 2024

Dirty political tricks used to stop Raila at all costs: Will they be used again when the servers are opened?

Dirty political tricks used to stop Raila at all costs: Will they be used again when the servers are opened?

In the high-stakes world of politics, dirty tricks are often deployed to achieve victory. In the case of Raila Odinga, these underhanded tactics have been used time and again to thwart his bids for the presidency. From false accusations to fabricated scandals, the opponents of Odinga have shown a willingness to go to any lengths necessary to stop him from attaining power.

Today we dive deep into the dirty political tricks that have been employed to hinder Odinga's political career. We will examine the strategies utilized by his adversaries, highlighting the deceit, manipulation, and propaganda that have been directed at him. Through an exploration of these tactics, readers will gain insight into the murky world of political campaigning and the lengths some will go to in order to maintain control. Despite facing numerous obstacles along the way, Raila Odinga has remained a force to be reckoned with.

 

Historical Examples of Dirty Political Tricks

In the realm of politics, the use of underhanded tactics is not a new phenomenon. Leaders and political aspirants have been known to resort to such methods to gain an upper hand in the race for power. In the case of Raila Odinga, these tactics have been rampant, persistent and relentless with many instances characterizing his political journey.

 

One such instance was during the 2007 elections, where Odinga was pitted against Mwai Kibaki. Accusations were rife that Kibaki's administration misused state resources to fund his campaign, a clear violation of electoral laws. In addition, there were widespread allegations of vote-rigging, with the electoral commission accused of favoring Kibaki.

 

Another example is the 2013 elections, where Odinga was accused of orchestrating the 2007-2008 post-election violence. This was a strategy designed to tarnish his reputation and diminish his chances of winning the election. The accusations were later proven to be baseless, but they had already achieved their intended purpose: to cast doubt on Odinga's leadership abilities.

 

The Impact of Dirty Political Tricks on Democracy

Dirty political tricks significantly undermine the principles of democracy. They distort the will of the people, making it impossible for them to make informed choices about their leaders. In Odinga's case, these tactics have played a significant role in shaping the political landscape.

 

The use of state resources to fund campaigns, for instance, creates an uneven playing field. This gives the incumbent an unfair advantage, making it almost impossible for opposition candidates to compete effectively. Consequently, the electorate is denied the opportunity to choose their leaders freely and fairly.

 

Similarly, the propagation of false accusations against Odinga has had a significant impact on his electoral fortunes. This tactic has been used to sway public opinion against him, thereby influencing the outcome of elections. It is a clear violation of democratic principles, as it deprives voters of their right to make informed decisions.

 

The Use of Negative Campaigning

Negative campaigning is another dirty political trick that has been used against Odinga. This tactic involves the use of negative information to tarnish an opponent's image, thereby influencing the electorate's perception of them.

 

During the 2013 elections, for instance, Odinga was portrayed as a violent leader who was incapable of maintaining peace. This narrative was created to make him unattractive to the electorate, especially in the wake of the 2007-2008 post-election violence.

 

Negative campaigning, however, does more harm than good. It fosters animosity and division among the populace, making it difficult for leaders to unite the country once the elections are over. It also distracts from the real issues, with candidates focusing more on mudslinging than on articulating their policies and development agendas.

 

Voter Suppression Tactics

Voter suppression is a tactic commonly used in politics to influence the outcome of an election. It involves the use of various methods to prevent certain groups of people from voting. In Odinga's case, this tactic has been employed to deny him votes, especially in his strongholds.

 

In the 2007 elections, for example, there were widespread reports of voter intimidation in parts of the country considered to be Odinga's strongholds. This was aimed at discouraging his supporters from turning out to vote. In addition, there were allegations of vote-rigging, with Odinga's votes allegedly being reduced in favor of his opponent.

 

Voter suppression is a clear violation of democratic principles. It denies citizens their right to participate in the electoral process and choose their leaders. It also undermines the credibility of elections, leading to disputes and potential conflict.

 

Spreading False Information and Propaganda

The spread of false information and propaganda is a common tactic in politics. It is used to manipulate public opinion and influence the outcome of elections. In Odinga's case, this tactic has been used to tarnish his image and diminish his chances of winning elections.

 

For instance, during the 2013 elections, false information was circulated alleging that Odinga was planning to introduce sharia law in Kenya. This was a clear attempt to scare away Christian voters, who form a significant portion of the Kenyan electorate. This false information was propagated despite Odinga's repeated assurances that he had no such plans.

 

False information and propaganda not only distort the truth but also create divisions among the populace. They breed mistrust and animosity, making it difficult for leaders to unite the country after the elections.

 

Manipulating the Media and Public Opinion

Manipulation of the media and public opinion is another dirty trick used in politics. It involves the use of various tactics to control the narrative and sway public opinion in favor of a particular candidate. In Odinga's case, his opponents have used this tactic to portray him in a negative light.

 

The media, being a powerful tool in shaping public opinion, has been used to propagate negative narratives about Odinga. For instance, during the 2013 elections, some media houses were accused of biased reporting, with their coverage favoring Odinga's opponents.

 

Manipulating public opinion, on the other hand, involves the use of tactics such as fear-mongering and propaganda. These tactics are used to create a perception of a candidate that may not necessarily be true. They are designed to influence voters' choices, thereby altering the outcome of an election.

 

The Role of Social Media in Political Dirty Tricks

In the modern era, social media has become a powerful tool in politics. It provides a platform for candidates to reach a wide audience and communicate their messages directly. However, it has also been used as a tool for dirty political tricks.

 

In Odinga's case, social media has been used to propagate false information and negative narratives about him. During the 2017 elections, for instance, a fake news story was circulated on social media alleging that Odinga had conceded defeat. This was a clear attempt to discourage his supporters and suppress voter turnout.

 

While social media has the potential to enhance democracy by providing a platform for robust debate and exchange of ideas, it can also be used to undermine it. The spread of false information and propaganda on social media can influence voters' choices, thereby altering the outcome of an election.

 

Consequences of Political Dirty Tricks

Dirty political tricks have far-reaching consequences. They undermine the principles of democracy, distort the will of the people, and breed mistrust among the populace.

 

In Odinga's case, these tactics have affected his electoral fortunes, with his opponents using them to diminish his chances of winning elections. They have also fueled division and animosity among the populace, making it difficult for him to unite his supporters after the elections.

 

Furthermore, these tricks have undermined the credibility of Kenya's electoral process. The allegations of vote-rigging and misuse of state resources have raised questions about the fairness and integrity of elections, leading to disputes and potential conflict.

Understanding Kenya election politics

After my recent video explaining what may unfold shortly in Kenya if and when the server is opened to reveal the real election results of 2022 (part of the NADCO report agreement that is due to sail through Parliament shortly), I realized that most of us do not understand Kenyan election politics.

And yet believe it or not Kenyan election politics is very simple it can be summarized in one short sentence and that sentence is STOP RAILA. That's it.

Now I know that sounds crazy, but don't worry about it, I have compelling evidence. But first let me clarify the reason why this is so relevant right now. Kenyan election politics is very relevant because I have good reason to believe that if and when the server is opened, the same strategy or similar tricks will be used to deny Kenyans justice. And of course in keeping with the mantra stop Raila at all costs.

And so here are the four tricks that have been used to stop Raila in the past;

Evil trick number one; I believe I introduced this in my video on the subject recently, but let me take this opportunity to give it more depth. You see before 2010, under the old Constitution there were so many loopholes that could be used by the state and powerful people to stop the rightful winner of an election from taking office the list was very long for example in 2007 the election.

For instance in those days, the election did not end at the polling station. What that meant is that the election ended when the returning officer made “corrections” before announcing the results. Now hang on a minute! What “corrections” can you possibly make to number of votes? And that's the point, and so what it means is that if Chris kumekucha polls only 5,000 votes against Odinga’s 4 million the returning officer can very easily add three zeros to my votes in his “corrections” and declare me the winner with 5 million votes. That's what I mean.

And in 2007 there was another complication. Very stubborn Kaki believed that he was capable of genuinely winning those elections and therefore he resisted any interference until the very last minute. Which ended up being tragic because when you interfere at the last minute it is much less believable and it becomes obvious you stole the votes.

But one very smart thing was done in 2007 to manage the aftermath. Because you know even after an election you have to take into account the possibility that somebody will come afterwards and scrutinize the votes. And I believe this point is very relevant right now for the possible opening of the servers.

This is what was done in 2007. Those who rigged for Kibaki also rigged for Raila. Let me explain.

They rigged for Kibaki to make sure he won by a small margin of about 200,000 votes and then they also fiddled with Raila votes in his strongholds in Nyanza and the Rift valley so that a forensic audit afterwards would show that although Kibaki stole votes, Raila also stole votes. Ingenious, in my opinion because when both sides stole, it becomes much more difficult to determine who really won. And that is how they robbed Raila.

2013 Rigging

In 2013 the people who were doing this biashara of stealing votes were prepared well in advance and it is very clear they knew who was going to win those elections. So the Mantra of stop Raila kicked in.

Their first move was a media blackout. And they had the perfect most believable excuse. They said the country was still very sensitive after the 2007 clashes that took place after the election results were announced and therefore they had to be cautious.

Effectively what that did was to make it impossible for anybody to gauge how the election was going, making it easier for the public to accept any results thrown at them at the end of the polls.

But there was still another obstacle in stopping Raila. Due to the 2010 Constitution and the stringent rules in the constitution associated with the elections a way had to be found around it and in the end the solution looked so simple but it worked and has worked to date it even worked in 2022.

The trick was to have several servers. So that when the Supreme Court inevitably ordered for the servers to be opened, all the IEBC does is to open one of the servers, obviously not the one with the correct result.

2017 election drama

Those who followed the presidential elections in 2017 will remember NASA's effort to counter this many servers issue. They announced that they would have a tallying center of their own. What that meant is that this NASA tallying Center would collect results from each and every polling station over 60,000 of them countrywide and then do the sums on their own. And if there was any dodgy dodgy business with any polling station, it would be very easy to detect it and therefore that would be evidence against anybody who wanted to interfere the elections.

Now of course this is a logistical nightmare but NASA tried and tried very hard But the Intelligence Community went out of their way to frustrate them at every turn. They even had equipment seized somewhere in Westlands in a raid that the government denied ever happened.

But then chief justice David Maraga surprised everybody by making use of the 2010 Constitution and introducing something that was brand new to everybody. He said at the Supreme court that elections are a process and if the process is broken the results are also broken irreparably.

That is precisely how the 2017 presidential elections were nullified.

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Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Revealed: Ruto plan for when Wako team will open servers shortly to find a big Raila win

Revealed: Ruto plan for when Wako team will open servers shortly to find a big Raila win

Recently, honorable Opiyo Wandayi, who is the minority leader at the National Assembly released a statement that had Azimio supporters over the moon. But many stopped themselves quickly because it all sounded too good to be true. Indeed I received some emails asking me; "Chris, what does all this mean?" 

Well, in case you're still in the dark and have no idea what I am talking about... All Hon Wandayi did was to release a list of the Azimio side of a panel to do an audit on the 2022 presidential elections. 

Most Kenyans know that this is not a small matter because to do an audit, one would need to access the servers with the presidential election results 2022 and all of them at that!

Now, before we go into the far reaching implications of what most Kenyans hope is about to happen, let us start this story at the beginning. 

You will remember that going into the national dialogue talks that halted streets protests (Maandamano) Azimio had three irreducible minimums. 

Number one; That the Ruto government should make deliberate efforts to bring down the cost of living (instead of doing the opposite by hiking taxes)

Number two; Opening the servers with the real presidential results.  

Number three: That Ruto should immediately stop re-constituting a new IEBC. 

And of course we all know that Azimio lost one out of those three irreducible minimum demands. And that is the cost of living where there was no agreement between Azimio and Kenya Kwanza at the Bomas talks. 

Actually Azimio had to make a very big decision because going into the talks, they had said if there was no agreement on the cost of living then there was nothing else they were going to discuss with Kenya Kwanza and the talks would therefore collapse. 

So, why did Raila and Azimio change their mind and let cost of living slide?

There was a very good reason which you will never hear spoken out at any press conference or even a politician's speech. And really it is just simple logic. 

Let me simplify it with a very common Swahili saying that goes thus; If a child cries for a sharp razor, just give it to them. If your child is crying because they want the razor to play with and you know the consequences (they will hurt themselves), you can still decide to let them have it so that they learn a lesson the hard way and then you will never have that trouble with them again).

You see the cost of living is a very sensitive political hot potato that has brought down too many governments and even empires since the beginning of time. There is no debate amongst Kenyans that it has finished Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza brigade politically. Nobody on that side of the divide has a political future, even if they do not know it yet.

And so Azimio decided to quit struggling against stubborn Ruto on cost of living and decided to let him "cook" in his own fat. And of course for some very bizarre reason Ruto and his chaps still don't see this. In their minds they can do what they want (taking away money from people's pockets) and then when the elections come around they will find a strategy to convince Kenyans to vote them back in or they'll simply rig themselves back in. I guess the thinking is that since Daniel arap Moi with all the Western Powers against his administration, towards the end of his reign) still managed to remain in power, then that is proof it can be done and therefore since Ruto and his men view themselves as being super smart, they are sure that they too can do it. That seems to be  the thinking around this administration.

For Azimio it was felt that it was wise to at least win something. Like opening the servers and the IEBC manenos. That was obviously better than nothing. And in any case the cost of living component they had lost would inevitably be the downfall of their political opponents, which would be doing Azimio a favour.

To me it makes perfect sense and in their place I would have made the very same decision. 

Now let us focus on this panel to go through the 2022 presidential elections results with a fine tooth comb, so to speak. 

This really has to start with opening the servers -- all of them. BUT let us just face reality. There is no way Ruto would have agreed to this (it is all signed and sealed in the NADCO report which is being tabled in Parliament to be quickly passed shortly) unless UDA had a plan in place. A plan to guarantee that the result of this audit will not remove Ruto from Power. Because most Kenyans know what is in those servers.

And there are many ways of doing this in Parliament because after all Ruto has the numbers in the National Assembly.
 
For example, they could introduce a small clause saying that all the findings of this forensic audit can only be implemented after 2027. 

Actually, it is sad but true that there are many options here to frustrate Azimio supporters and justice. One which has been used successfully before is to pile up all the blame on IEBC. This is the body that has the legal mandate to carry out elections and when things go wrong it is actually impossible legally to shift the blame anywhere else, even if you have the evidence. And so this would be a neat and very viable option for Ruto.

And indeed history very clearly tells us that ALL Wafula Chebukati predecessors (without exception) have ended up being hanged out to dry. From Samuel Kivuitu to Issak Hassan. 

There is something else. If the Wako forensic audit proves that the presidential election results were a total mess, that does not automatically hand over victory to Raila Odinga. 

In 2007 when Kibaki rigged himself back for a second term, something very clever was done that I believe had foreign assistance partly because it was just too smart (legally). I'm not saying that Kenyans are not that smart but I recently saw something very similar in a country very far away from Kenya that gave me reason to suspect that maybe the experts used in 2007 were the same experts used recently in that other foreign country. 

What exactly did they do in 2007 in the presidential election in Kenya? After stealing Raila votes massively countrywide, these people who rigged Kibaki back in, went to Raila strongholds and also fiddled with the votes there, giving Raila extra votes here and there. 

That changed everything because from a legal position the evidence showed that, Kibaki stole votes but Raila also stole some votes. And thus the conclusion was that there was no way the real winner could be known because both candidates stole votes. 

Clearly the appointment of this panel to forensically audit the 2022 presidential elections is not an open and shut case. There are just too many possible outcomes and scenarios and most of them will never see justice done.

But all is not lost for those Kenyans who would like justice to be done. Other things could happen. 

For instance the revelations from the server of the real results of the presidential elections could have such a huge psychological impact on Kenyans that it could trigger unrest and a demand for justice that will be impossible for authorities to resist.

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Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Kenyan bus company and 15 others sanctioned by US over support for al Shabaab: What does it mean?

Kenyan bus company and 15 others sanctioned by US over support for al Shabaab: What does it mean?

In a recent move over the last few hours, by the United States Treasury Department, a Kenyan bus company finds itself among a list of 16 entities being sanctioned for allegedly providing support to the Somali militant group al Shabaab. 

Crown Bus company, is accused of aiding the extremist group by facilitating the transportation of fighters, weapons, and other supplies. This action by the US government comes as part of ongoing efforts to disrupt the financial networks that fund al Shabaab's activities. By imposing sanctions on entities believed to be contributing to the group's operations, the hope is to limit its ability to carry out acts of violence and terrorism. 

While details about the specific role and involvement of the Kenyan bus company remain undisclosed, the sanctions reflect the seriousness with which the US government regards the situation. The identification and sanctioning of such entities are part of a wider international effort to combat terrorism and ensure the safety and security of countries in the region. 

Al Shabaab is a militant group based in East Africa, primarily operating in Somalia but also known for launching attacks in neighboring countries, particularly Kenya. The group seeks to establish a fundamentalist Islamic state in Somalia and has been responsible for numerous high-profile terror attacks in the region.

Since 2006, Al Shabaab has conducted attacks against Kenyan military and civilian targets, leading to a significant loss of life and property. The group has exploited the porous Kenya-Somalia border, using it as a passage for fighters and weapons. The Kenyan government, in response, has ramped up its security efforts along the border and within its territory.

Al Shabaab's activities in Kenya primarily revolve around recruitment and radicalization of youth, conducting attacks, and fundraising through illicit activities. Sadly, the group has managed to infiltrate various sectors of Kenyan society, including transport, which leads us to the story of the sanctioned bus company.

Overview of the US Sanctions and Their Impact on the Bus Company

In this significant move by the United States Treasury Department, sixteen entities, including the Kenyan bus company, have been targeted with sanctions. These sanctions are part of a broader strategy by the US government to disrupt the financial networks that support Al Shabaab’s operations.

Sanctions translate to a series of economic and trade restrictions applied by one or more countries against a targeted self-governing state, entity, or individual. In the case of the bus company, the sanctions could involve freezing of assets, ban on financial transactions, and restrictions on doing business with US entities.

The impact on the bus company is likely to be severe. It will endure significant financial strain, as it will be unable to transact with US entities or those in the US jurisdiction. Further, other international companies may be reluctant to do business with this company for fear of secondary sanctions.

Reasons for the Sanctions and Evidence of the Bus Company's Support for Al Shabaab

The sanctions against the Kenyan bus company were levied due to allegations of it aiding Al Shabaab. The company is said to have facilitated the transportation of fighters, weapons, and other supplies for the militant group. While specific details are still undisclosed, it is clear that the evidence was compelling enough for the Treasury Department to impose sanctions.

The decision to sanction the bus company sends a clear message about the seriousness with which the US government views entities supporting terrorist activities. It forms part of a broader strategy to dismantle the financial networks that sustain groups like Al Shabaab.

It also places a spotlight on the role that some private entities play, knowingly or unknowingly, in aiding and abetting terrorism. It's a wake-up call for businesses to be more vigilant and ensure they are not inadvertently supporting such activities.

Reactions and Responses from the Bus Company and Kenyan Government

The announcement of the sanctions has, understandably, elicited reactions from various quarters. The Kenyan government, which has been grappling with the threat of Al Shabaab, expressed concern over the alleged involvement of a Kenyan entity in supporting the militant group.

The bus company, on the other hand, has yet to issue an official response. It will be interesting to see how it navigates this crisis, both legally and from a public relations standpoint. There are likely to be tough questions ahead, and the company’s responses will be critical.

The response from the Kenyan public has been mixed. While some express shock and disappointment, others view it as a wake-up call for stricter oversight of businesses, especially those operating in sensitive sectors such as transport.

Similar Cases of US Sanctions on Companies Supporting Terrorist Organizations

This is not the first instance of the US sanctioning entities for suspected links with terrorist organizations. There have been several similar cases in the past. For example, in 2019, the US Treasury Department sanctioned three entities based in Turkey, Afghanistan, and the UAE for providing financial and logistical support to ISIS.

In another case, in 2020, the US sanctioned six Nigerian nationals for their involvement in a significant cybercrime scheme that supported various terrorist groups. These cases demonstrate the willingness of the US to use sanctions as a tool to disrupt the financial networks of terrorist organizations.

International Efforts to Combat Terrorism Financing through Sanctions

The move to impose sanctions on entities suspected of supporting terrorism is part of a larger international strategy to combat terrorism financing. Countries around the world, often under the umbrella of the United Nations, have made concerted efforts to crack down on sources of funding for terrorist organizations.

These efforts include setting up international frameworks and regulations to detect and prevent illegal money transfers, strengthening intelligence sharing among countries, and promoting public-private partnerships in the fight against terrorism financing.

The effectiveness of these efforts is evident in the significant decrease in the number of terrorist attacks in recent years. However, the fight is far from over, and continuous vigilance is required to ensure that terrorist organizations do not find new ways to fund their operations.

The sanctioning of the Kenyan bus company by the US Treasury Department serves as a stark reminder of the complex and multi-faceted nature of the fight against terrorism. It highlights the need for vigilance at all levels – government, businesses, and the public.

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