The Return of Mutai Nguni and the New Political Shift in Kenya

 Professor Mutai Nguni, famously known for his role in the "tyranny of numbers" narrative, has made a comeback, and for many Kenyans, it’s unsettling news. I’ve been receiving calls and emails from people expressing concern that Nguni isn’t telling Kenyans the whole truth. It seems that his shift to supporting Kenya Kwanza has many people worried. In today’s analysis, we’ll dig deeper into this development and uncover some surprising truths.

The core reason for the panic surrounding Nguni’s move is that he’s held in high regard by many Kenyans, with his opinions often used to interpret political events. However, once you understand the bigger picture, you’ll realize that Nguni’s recent alignment with Kenya Kwanza is nothing new—it’s simply part of his political pattern.

Let’s go back to the start to understand this better. Nguni rose to prominence largely due to Kenya’s third president, Emilio Stanley Moi Kibaki, who distanced himself from the usual political bickering. Kibaki avoided engaging in typical political strategies, and in doing so, he inadvertently created a space for someone like Professor Mutai Nguni to enter the picture. Nguni, by virtue of his position, became central in shaping narratives around Kenyan politics, particularly during key elections.

When the 2013 Presidential elections came around, Kibaki faced a major hurdle: how to sell another Kikuyu presidency. This challenge gave birth to the now-infamous "tyranny of numbers" narrative—a flawed idea that was used to justify political outcomes. But the truth behind this narrative is that it was always a fallacy. It was never accurate in 2013, and it certainly wasn’t true in 2007. In fact, Raila Odinga won the 2007 election, despite the controversial claim of "tyranny of numbers."

If you look at the evidence, the numbers presented in the media before the tally was switched off clearly showed Raila leading by over a million votes. If the tyranny of numbers were truly valid, that would never have happened. The real story is that this narrative was used to legitimize the rigging of the 2013 election, allowing Kenyans to accept fake results as real.

The “tyranny of numbers” also elevated Professor Nguni’s influence, making his opinions influential among politicians. His earnings during the administration are worth noting and reflect his significant role. You can find more details about this in my new ebook, Tyranny of Fake Narratives, which offers an in-depth look at these political dynamics.

Fast forward to the present, and it’s important to recognize that it wasn’t Nguni who approached William Ruto’s government—it was Ruto’s administration that sought his expertise. Nguni’s role is to help create legitimacy for the Kenya Kwanza government, manufacturing new narratives to shore up Ruto’s leadership. This move is a classic strategy of selling propaganda by starting with a kernel of truth and gradually twisting it into a desired direction.

Now, Nguni and the current government narrative are trying to convince us that Raila Odinga’s campaign in 2022 was disorganized. While it’s true that there were issues within Raila’s camp, it doesn’t change the fact that he won the election. If Ruto really won, why haven’t the servers been opened to prove it? The truth is, Raila likely won by a significant margin, despite the election being rigged in Ruto’s favor. This fact cannot be ignored.

Professor Nguni’s narrative also claims that Raila didn’t have the proper coordination with Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration or the internal security forces, which Nguni suggests led to Raila’s loss. But this argument is flawed. Having those connections is what constitutes election rigging. Raila’s history shows he’s always avoided winning under dubious circumstances. He seeks genuine victories, not those handed to him.

Now, the real shift in Kenya’s political landscape lies in Ruto’s decision to bring in an advisor like Nguni—someone whose advice he is clearly willing to listen to. This signals a dramatic change in Ruto’s strategy. His administration is facing a legitimacy crisis, and bringing in Nguni is an attempt to resolve that. The involvement of Nguni, despite his controversial past, shows the deepening struggle for control within Kenya Kwanza.

However, despite these efforts, it may be too little, too late. Ruto’s path to legitimacy is riddled with challenges, and although Nguni has had successes in the past, this may not be enough to change the tide. The battle between Ruto and Raila is far from over, and it’s shaping up to be a fiercely contested struggle.

In conclusion, the political battle ahead will be intense. I’ve released a new ebook, Tyranny of Fake Narratives, which explores the role of propaganda and social media in Kenya’s political landscape, and how these tools have been used to manipulate public opinion. If you’re interested, it’s available for just 499 KES and comes with a two-month free subscription to my weekly intelligence briefings. Don’t miss out on this fascinating read that sheds light on Kenya’s political history and the current challenges facing the country.