A Major Political Shift in Kenya: The Reintroduction of Fuel Subsidies

 

 Something incredibly significant has just occurred in Kenyan politics, and it seems like most people are overlooking it. The saying "the devil is in the details" rings true because life often changes dramatically due to seemingly small actions. However, what has happened in Kenyan politics is not small—it's huge. I'm talking about the government's unexpected move to reintroduce fuel subsidies, a decision that has major political implications.

To clarify, I'm not discussing economics here, nor am I about to dive into the intricacies of economic outlooks. This isn’t an economics video. What I’m highlighting is a monumental shift in Kenya’s political landscape, and I'll explain why. Politics is deeply rooted in human nature, and this is where my illustration comes in.

Imagine your wife, who’s not been dressing well for some time, suddenly changes her appearance—new clothes, a makeover, and she looks unrecognizable. Should you be worried? Yes, because human nature suggests that something might be afoot. The same goes for when a distant neighbor who’s only exchanged brief pleasantries with you suddenly becomes overly friendly and starts visiting. Why be concerned? Because human nature often signals deeper changes.

This is the context in which President William Ruto’s government has made its significant policy shift. In the past, Ruto was known for his unyielding stance, but now, for the first time, he’s embraced a "reverse gear"—a move that raises many questions and concerns. This is troubling for those of us who follow politics closely.

To make sense of this, I’ve done some digging and consulted various sources. While I don’t have all the answers, I believe it’s important to share what I’ve discovered so far. As a journalist, you rarely get the full picture, but you report what you know, and let time reveal the rest.

One key moment came just a few days ago when Professor Mutai Nguni made a statement about the government’s approach to subsidies. He suggested that President Ruto should reintroduce subsidies on the supply side to alleviate pressure on Kenyans while working to boost production in the long term. In simple terms, this means the government should ease the burden on the population now, even as it seeks to address underlying issues like production and price stability.

This strategy would work much like a rich uncle subsidizing your vegetable costs to make them more affordable for your family. If there's overproduction in the market—say, too much maize—prices would naturally fall. However, the problem with this plan is that it’s time-consuming, and in the interim, there are those who will exploit the system for profit, keeping prices artificially high.

Fast forward to recent events, when many Kenyans were bracing for the price of petrol to soar beyond 200 shillings per liter. Out of nowhere, subsidies are back in place. This shows that President Ruto is finally heeding advice and making policy changes, signaling a new direction. This is a crucial political development with far-reaching consequences.

But what does this mean for Ruto? While we can expect his hard-hitting, provocative speeches to continue, the shift in policy suggests that the government might be trying to address public concerns more pragmatically. That said, political legitimacy issues won’t disappear overnight. Even if the price of maize drops dramatically tomorrow, the government will still face challenges, especially considering the political landscape of today. The damage done over the past year may be too great to reverse.

This new direction in government policy, influenced by the sharp mind of Professor Mutai Nguni, may be a turning point. But it’s possible that it’s too little, too late. The political train has already left the station, and it’s hard to see a complete turnaround.

In a more personal note, I’ve also released my latest book, Tyranny of False Narratives, which examines the role of propaganda and social media in shaping public opinion. The book has received positive feedback, including from the UK, where a respected critic praised its insights. If you're interested, you can find more details on how to grab your copy and even get two months of free membership to my weekly intelligence briefings.