Raila’s Strategy and the Unraveling of UDA’s Response

The press conference held after Monday's Mandamano protests was highly revealing, exposing new layers in Azimio’s strategy and signaling a broader political shift. Beyond the key takeaway that protests will now occur twice a week—on Mondays and Thursdays—there are deeper implications that many Kenyans might have missed.

1. Azimio’s Unwavering Organization and Plan

It is clear that Azimio is operating with precision, organization, and a long-term vision. Raila Odinga's leadership has managed to mobilize supporters, maintain momentum, and achieve noticeable political results. This stands in stark contrast to the current UDA government, which, despite being in power, seems disorganized and unable to present a coherent strategy or tangible achievements.

One cannot help but ask: Can we honestly say UDA has a clear plan that is delivering results? From controversial appointments based on ethnicity to cronyism in sensitive positions, the government’s actions raise concerns about its long-term effectiveness.

2. Azimio to Pursue ICC Charges Against Security Forces

Perhaps the most headline-grabbing revelation was Raila’s announcement that Azimio is actively working with lawyers and security experts to bring certain security personnel to justice—both locally and at the International Criminal Court (ICC). This move targets individuals within the security chain of command responsible for police brutality during protests, including injuries and deaths.

Raila’s strategy highlights a critical reality: police officers rarely act without orders. While individual officers may face accountability for illegal actions, greater responsibility lies with those who issued those orders. The use of security experts will enable Azimio to trace the chain of command, identifying the true decision-makers behind the orders. This marks a departure from the 2007 ICC approach, which primarily targeted top-level officials. This time, culpability may reach regional and station-level commanders, shaking the police service to its core.

For officers caught in this political storm, the dilemma is real: follow questionable orders and face accountability later, or refuse to obey and risk immediate consequences.

3. Exposing Links Between the Executive and the Corporate Sector

Another major theme of Raila’s address was Azimio’s targeting of suspicious ties between the executive and corporate entities. Raila’s call to boycott companies like Safaricom and KCB is not random. Safaricom, for instance, saw significant leadership changes orchestrated by the executive soon after Ruto took power, while KCB has reportedly been a major lender to the government and its allies.

The concern is clear: when executive power and corporate money mix, the outcome is rarely good for citizens. History offers grim parallels, such as during the Moi era, when political influence was misused to secure loans and financial favors. While today’s details remain unclear, Raila’s strategic targeting leaves the public—and media—digging for answers, encouraging a deeper scrutiny of government-corporate dealings.

4. Raila’s Tactical Silence and Effective Action

Raila’s approach—acting rather than talking—has proven more impactful. By naming corporations and exposing links indirectly, Azimio leaves room for speculation, investigation, and public discourse. Instead of labeling individuals or institutions as "corrupt," Raila highlights their associations and questionable dealings, prompting others to connect the dots. This strategy is subtle yet devastating, forcing attention where UDA would rather it not go.

5. UDA’s Immediate Response: Arrest Raila Narrative

Unsurprisingly, UDA’s response has been swift, with allied MPs calling for Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta’s arrests. This knee-jerk reaction, already analyzed as a distraction tactic, underscores the government’s struggle to counter Azimio’s growing momentum. The push for arrests is not about justice but an attempt to shift public focus from critical issues such as economic hardship, electoral transparency, and governance failures.

Conclusion: A Widening Political Divide

Azimio’s latest moves reveal a deeply calculated strategy aimed at holding the government accountable, exposing institutional failures, and rallying public support. From ICC cases to corporate boycotts, Raila is playing a long game that challenges UDA’s governance narrative. Meanwhile, UDA’s response—relying on propaganda and calls for arrests—suggests a government increasingly on the defensive.

The coming weeks will be critical as Azimio intensifies its actions and UDA scrambles to regain control of the narrative. For now, Kenyans must pay attention, separate distractions from substance, and demand leadership that prioritizes the country’s welfare over political games.