Kenya at Crossroads: Rising Tensions Ahead of Monday Protests

As Kenyans brace for yet another round of peaceful demonstrations called by Azimio on Monday, a series of troubling developments have unfolded in rapid succession. These events could have far-reaching implications, and it’s crucial to examine their impact and context as the nation approaches a critical juncture.

Raila Odinga’s Strategic Preparation

In a widely attended press briefing, Raila Odinga emphasized that the protests would remain peaceful and that Azimio was operating fully within the confines of the law. This approach, while frustrating for the government, highlights a significant reality: peaceful, lawful demonstrations are impossible to stop. Violence, or the excuse of violence, remains the only basis on which such actions could be curtailed, and Raila seems to have anticipated this trap.

Many critics who previously doubted Raila’s strategy—believing he was hesitant or disorganized—may now recognize the foresight behind Azimio's methodical planning. A rushed or uncoordinated effort would have been easily stopped, but Raila has ensured that Azimio’s actions remain protected by the Constitution.

Media Censorship and Government Tactics

During the briefing, Raila also addressed the Communication Authority’s recent attempts to intimidate media houses over their protest coverage. Ezra Chiloba’s warning mirrors tactics used during the KANU era, where media censorship was employed to keep the public in the dark. As history has shown, “democracy dies in darkness.” Legal experts have since challenged this move as unconstitutional, reminding the government that it cannot dictate what information the public consumes.

The contradiction is glaring: during the pandemic, graphic images of people collapsing in the streets were broadcast without restraint. Now, peaceful protests—protected by law—are being censored. What is the government afraid of? The source of violence during these protests is clear: it is the police, who are tasked with maintaining peace but often escalate confrontations instead.

The Bombshell Revelation

Perhaps the most explosive part of Raila’s address was his claim, based on “impeccable sources,” that a high-level meeting took place at Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Karen residence. According to Raila, plans were discussed to disrupt the protests by introducing crude weapons and firearms, with the intent of instigating violence and causing deaths.

So far, the government has failed to directly address this damning allegation. Instead, attention has been deflected to minor issues, but the silence on this matter is deafening. When such accusations go unanswered, it only strengthens public suspicion and lends credibility to Raila’s claims.

Raila’s Track Record of Accuracy

Critics often question how Raila obtains such sensitive information. However, history speaks for itself. In 2017, Raila revealed intelligence about military involvement in election rigging—information that shocked even seasoned analysts. On another occasion, he exposed details about assassins brought into the country to target him, down to their hideout locations.

Raila’s track record is clear: when he speaks, his information is almost always accurate. His recent claims, therefore, cannot be dismissed lightly, especially as they name senior officials and provide specific details.

The Government’s Desperation

The government appears to be running out of time and options. Azimio’s protests are gaining momentum and widespread support. This is often the stage where desperation leads to rash, misguided decisions—moves that could further destabilize the nation.

From where things stand, this battle is increasingly one-sided. The government’s attempts to counter Azimio’s momentum have been largely ineffective, as demonstrated by their body language and inability to directly respond to Raila’s revelations. It’s a situation akin to a football team trailing 7-0 and hoping for an impossible comeback with eight quick goals.

Kenya in Dangerous Territory

As we approach Monday, tensions are rising, and the country stands at a precarious crossroads. Raila’s revelations have escalated the stakes, and the government’s responses—or lack thereof—are only adding to the uncertainty. This moment feels like the middle of a long, treacherous bridge. While crossing it is inevitable, there is no guarantee of reaching the other side safely.

As Kenyans prepare for what lies ahead, one thing is clear: these are dangerous times. The nation must pray for calm, wisdom, and divine protection to emerge intact from this turbulent chapter.