Arrest Raila Narrative: UDA’s Strategy to Shift Focus

A growing chorus from UDA-allied MPs calling for the arrest of Raila Odinga and former President Uhuru Kenyatta has left many Kenyans in disbelief. On the surface, this demand appears audacious, but a closer look reveals a calculated strategy to shift the political narrative and distract the public.

Understanding the Arrest Narrative

The idea of arresting Raila Odinga is not new. The Uhuru Kenyatta administration once considered it but quickly abandoned the plan after the intelligence community outlined its dire consequences. Arresting figures like Raila or Uhuru isn’t logistically difficult; what makes it unthinkable is the aftermath. Raila's passionate support base would mobilize immediately, effectively shutting down the country. Add to that the inevitable international backlash—given both leaders' strong global networks—and the action becomes politically untenable.

Such a move would not just be counterproductive but could hasten the downfall of the Kenya Kwanza administration. Despite knowing this, UDA leaders are now amplifying calls for their arrests. Why? It’s a distraction—a headline designed to replace the growing “Ruto Must Go” movement that emerged following Monday's protests.

A Government of Perception and Propaganda

This administration thrives on narratives, perception, and propaganda. They twist facts to suit their agenda, a strategy that has become evident to many Kenyans. A perfect example is UDA Secretary-General Cleophas Malala’s claim that Raila Odinga’s recent address in Juja was opportunistic, alleging that Raila simply targeted an existing crowd. However, the turnout for Monday's protests contradicts any claim of Raila’s waning popularity.

Within UDA, such tactics appear deliberate. They craft provocative “headlines,” gauge public reaction, and adjust their messaging accordingly. “Arrest Raila” is just the latest headline—a calculated move to shift attention and control the political discourse.

Why Arrest Won’t Happen

Arresting Raila Odinga or Uhuru Kenyatta remains highly unlikely. The government’s inability to apprehend former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i—despite his high-profile role and access to state secrets—raises serious doubts about their capacity to arrest even higher-profile figures. The very public calls for arrest are inconsistent with standard arrest procedures, which rely on secrecy to avoid tipping off the target. This confirms that the statements are not a genuine plan but a strategic narrative.

The Real Objective: Changing the Narrative

The ultimate goal of the “arrest Raila” rhetoric is to divert attention. After Monday, the political discourse centered on growing dissatisfaction with President Ruto's administration, embodied in chants of “Ruto Must Go.” By shifting focus to potential arrests, UDA seeks to deflate this momentum and create a distraction.

However, Kenyans must remain vigilant. This narrative will not solve the country’s economic hardships, put food on the table, or open the IEBC servers to address lingering electoral controversies. It benefits only the political class while leaving ordinary citizens without solutions to their struggles.

A Worrying Sign of Desperation

The fact that UDA has escalated to its most dramatic narrative—“arrest Raila”—is concerning. It signals desperation and raises an urgent question: What comes next? If this headline fails to hold, UDA may resort to even more drastic measures to maintain control of the narrative. This is a dangerous path that Kenyans must watch closely.

Conclusion

The “arrest Raila” calls are not genuine; they are political games designed to distract and divide. The proper response to such tactics is clear: remain focused on the real issues—electoral justice, economic struggles, and accountability. As the public navigates this storm of propaganda, it’s essential to see through the distractions and hold the government accountable for delivering on its promises.