Raila Odinga and the Finance Bill 2023: A Political Masterstroke or Betrayal?

 

Over the past few days, Kenyans hoping for a last-minute intervention against the controversial Finance Bill 2023 were left disappointed. Despite public outcry and opposition rhetoric, the bill is now law. But beneath the surface lies a fascinating tale of political maneuvering, particularly by Raila Odinga, the ODM party, and the Azimio la Umoja coalition.

The Perceived Inaction

Many expected Raila and Azimio to mount a robust campaign against the Finance Bill. Calls for a parliamentary group meeting, intense lobbying of dissenters in Kenya Kwanza, or even staging walkouts to deny quorum seemed obvious strategies. However, the coalition appeared to make noise but took minimal action, leaving many supporters confused and frustrated.

Behind this apparent inaction, though, was a calculated strategy. Raila and Azimio realized that the Finance Bill's passage could spell doom for Kenya Kwanza politically. By allowing the bill to pass unchallenged, Azimio may have ensured that Kenya Kwanza would bear full responsibility for the backlash.

Political Suicide by Kenya Kwanza?

The Finance Bill 2023 has been widely criticized for its heavy tax burdens, including a significant increase in VAT on fuel from 8% to 16%. This move will inevitably escalate the cost of living for already struggling Kenyans. The fallout from this decision is expected to erode public support for the Kenya Kwanza government, leading some to label this move "political suicide."

Historical context reveals that similar proposals in 2013 under the Uhuru Kenyatta administration were shelved to avoid public outrage. In stark contrast, the Ruto-led government forged ahead, despite warnings about the political and economic repercussions.

Raila’s Masterstroke?

By stepping back and allowing the Finance Bill to pass, Raila and Azimio may have positioned themselves as the saviors of a disillusioned populace. Instead of expending energy to block the bill, which might have prolonged Kenya Kwanza's political tenure, they opted to let their opponents bear the full weight of the bill's unpopularity.

This strategy aligns with a common political analogy: Raila's camp allowed Kenya Kwanza to speed down a familiar road that ends abruptly in a cliff. As Kenya Kwanza plummets, Azimio waits at the edge, preparing to capitalize on the fallout.

Economic and Social Fallout

The Finance Bill's implications for Kenyans are grim. With skyrocketing fuel prices, the ripple effects will increase the cost of goods and services, aggravating an already dire economic situation. Businesses, particularly small ones, will suffer as consumer spending plummets. This economic strain will likely intensify public discontent, setting the stage for mass protests and political unrest.

Opportunities Amid Crisis

Despite the bleak outlook, tough economic times often bring opportunities. In previous downturns, innovative Kenyans have thrived by adapting to the new realities. From bartering goods to launching side hustles, resilience has been key. Raila’s camp appears poised to ride this wave of public frustration, positioning themselves as champions of the people’s struggles.

Looking Ahead

As Kenya faces this new chapter, the political landscape remains fluid. The Finance Bill may have solidified public discontent against Kenya Kwanza, but Azimio’s ability to capitalize on this remains to be seen. For ordinary Kenyans, survival will require adaptability, innovation, and resilience in the face of economic adversity.

Chris, the author of this analysis, underscores the importance of preparation during these challenging times. Whether through personal investments, side hustles, or innovative strategies, Kenyans must find ways to navigate the unfolding economic crisis.