Political Tensions in Kenya: Ruto, Raila, and Jubilee's Future

 

 As Kenyans remain captivated by the unfolding investigation into the late Monica Kimani's case, political tensions continue to escalate. Deputy President William Ruto recently accused Raila Odinga of trying to force him out of the Jubilee Party. In response, Raila's camp dismissed Ruto's claims, suggesting instead that the Deputy President is setting the stage for his own exit and seeking to shift blame onto Raila.

This political drama raises critical questions: does Ruto genuinely intend to leave the Jubilee Party he helped establish, or is there another agenda behind his accusations? Some speculate that his statements may be connected to frustrations stemming from the Monica Kimani investigation, but these claims remain unverified. For now, let's focus on the political dynamics at play.

The Shift in Power Dynamics

Since the 2018 handshake between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, Ruto's influence within Jubilee has been waning. Initially, from 2013 to 2016, Ruto played a pivotal role in decision-making, enjoying significant power as the President's close ally. However, cracks began to show in late 2016, with Ruto's exclusion from key decisions. During this period, Kenyatta relied on a close-knit "kitchen cabinet," leading to governance challenges and a less stable presidency.

After the handshake, Ruto found himself under immense pressure as the political landscape shifted. The government became divided into two camps: pro-Ruto and anti-Ruto factions. Public gestures, such as Kenyatta's infamous "tanga tanga" comment, signaled a deteriorating relationship between the President and his deputy.

The Building Bridges Initiative and Ruto’s Concerns

Ruto's concerns extend beyond his waning influence. The Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), spearheaded by Kenyatta and Raila, remains a significant threat to his 2022 presidential ambitions. The BBI aims to restructure Kenya's governance system, potentially replacing the presidential system with a parliamentary one. This shift would render Ruto’s presidential aspirations obsolete.

Adding to the tension, Ruto has been excluded from key discussions surrounding the BBI. Many interpret this as a deliberate move to sideline him from Kenya’s future political framework. The recent push for a constitutional referendum is a prime example. A parliamentary system, proposed as part of the BBI, would diminish the power of a single presidential candidate, thereby frustrating Ruto’s ambitions.

Parliamentary Conflicts and Blame Game

Ruto has also faced criticism for allegedly orchestrating rebellion within Parliament. He is accused of influencing opposition to the controversial 8% VAT on fuel, which the government had to force through despite strong legislative resistance. Such incidents have fueled speculation that Ruto may be undermining the government from within.

What Lies Ahead?

While Ruto’s political future remains uncertain, his strategy seems to involve navigating these challenges while laying the groundwork for an exit that positions him as the victim. Meanwhile, Raila and Kenyatta's alliance appears to be consolidating power through the BBI, potentially sidelining Ruto permanently.

Kenya’s political landscape is poised for further fireworks as the country inches closer to the 2022 elections. For now, all eyes are on the unfolding drama within Jubilee and the broader implications of the BBI.