The BBI Drama: Political Intrigue and High Stakes in Kenya

 Wednesday, November 18, 2020, will go down as a day of intense political drama in Kenya. A series of high-stakes events unfolded, leaving the nation buzzing with speculation and intrigue.

The day began with President Uhuru Kenyatta holding a three-hour, closed-door meeting with his deputy, William Ruto—so private that even aides were excluded. This came shortly after a meeting between Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, and a group of women leaders. Meanwhile, Ruto sent out a surprising tweet at 1 PM, signaling a potential shift in his stance on the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI).

The Cryptic Tweet

Ruto’s tweet read:

"I love this country enough never to be part of any war not when there is a possibility for win-win consensus beckoning. An ‘us versus them’ yes/no contest that will lead to a lose-lose outcome is unnecessary and unwarranted. An uncontested referendum is possible."

This was a sharp contrast to his previous fiery criticisms of the BBI. Observers speculated that the tweet hinted at a willingness to negotiate or soften his stance.

Postponement of the BBI Signature Launch

Adding to the day’s drama, the much-anticipated launch of signature collection for the BBI referendum was abruptly postponed. Many interpreted this as a sign of underlying tensions and potential negotiations within the political elite.

Why the Extreme Reactions to the BBI?

Criticism of the BBI has not been ordinary; it has been highly emotional and, at times, venomous. Some have portrayed the BBI as an existential threat to Kenya, while others, like Nakuru Governor Kivutha Kibwana and Senator Kipchumba Murkomen, have even alleged state surveillance.

Governor Kibwana tweeted about drones hovering over his residence and compromised electronic gadgets, reminiscent of the Moi era. Murkomen, on the other hand, joked about the drones taking aerial photos and invited the operators for tea. These bizarre developments underline the intensity surrounding the BBI debate.

What’s Really Driving the BBI Tensions?

On the surface, the BBI appears to be a crucial state priority, involving intelligence agencies and immense political mobilization. Its opponents, however, have gone to great lengths to discredit it, fueling speculation about deeper motivations.

Some analysts believe the real issue lies in the economic hardships facing Kenyans. The pandemic, coupled with pre-existing economic challenges, has devastated livelihoods, leaving many citizens disillusioned. Against this backdrop, the BBI has become a convenient scapegoat for frustrations, with politicians like Ruto leveraging the public's discontent to galvanize opposition.

Others suggest that the BBI is closely tied to the 2022 political strategy of its architects, Kenyatta and Odinga. Jubilee Secretary-General Raphael Tuju recently revealed plans for Kenyatta to remain Jubilee’s party leader even after his presidency. This would allow Kenyatta to maintain influence in the 2022 elections, potentially supporting a joint candidate with Odinga.

Negotiation or Cooling Tensions?

The dramatic events of November 18 suggest efforts to cool political temperatures. While the BBI’s passage seems inevitable, there appears to be recognition that lowering tensions could ease its path. This strategy, if true, is a wise move given the highly charged atmosphere.

Conclusion

The BBI debate is more than just a referendum—it’s a reflection of Kenya’s deep political and economic struggles. As the saga unfolds, it remains to be seen whether the initiative will unite or further divide the nation