Is War Over?: A Decade of Change and Conflict

In 2014, scientist explored whether the world was becoming more peaceful, based on long-term trends. At the time, violence and war seemed to be on the decline. However, the events of the past decade challenge that optimism. With conflicts such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war dominating headlines, the question remains: is the world truly more violent today?

Revisiting 2014's Predictions

1. Fewer Conflict Deaths: Between 2004 and 2014, deaths from state-based conflicts declined to around 350,000 globally. However, the past decade saw 1.2 million deaths from conflicts, or 1.5 million when including violent crime like Mexico’s drug wars—a threefold increase.

2. Few Wars Between Countries: Civil wars remain the most common form of state-based conflict. Yet, the re-emergence of wars between nations, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and smaller conflicts like the Armenia-Azerbaijan war, contradict this prediction.

3. Democracies Don’t Fight Each Other: No wars have occurred between democratic nations, maintaining this principle.

4. Fixed Borders: While most borders remain stable, territorial disputes persist, such as those between China and India, and Venezuela’s claim over part of Guyana.

5. Legacy of Colonialism: Conflicts remain concentrated in regions historically dominated by colonial powers or Soviet influence, where arbitrary borders and resource imbalances fuel tensions.

6. Diplomatic Civil War Resolutions: Diplomacy’s role in ending civil wars has diminished, with many conflicts either stalemating or ending through outright victory.

7. Peaceful Period in History: While the 2020s are more violent than the previous decade, the overall death toll remains lower than in major 20th-century conflicts.

The Evolving Landscape

Since 2014, some conflicts have cooled or ended:

The Taliban reclaimed Afghanistan after decades of war.

ISIS was defeated in Iraq and Syria.

South Sudan achieved a fragile peace.

Yet new or reignited conflicts emerged, including the Tigray War in Ethiopia (claiming over 500,000 lives) and violence in Sudan, Myanmar, and parts of Africa. External powers continue to fuel conflicts, from Saudi-Iran rivalries to global superpowers backing factions in Ukraine.

The Return of Interstate Wars

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years and a dramatic shift in global conflict dynamics. This war, alongside escalating tensions in other regions, signals a troubling resurgence of wars between nations.

Conclusion

Although the last decade has seen alarming increases in violence, it remains a relatively peaceful period compared to the bloodshed of previous centuries. However, the rise of multipolar power struggles, the erosion of a rules-based world order, and escalating tensions hint at an uncertain future.

Whether peace trends will stabilize or deteriorate further remains a question only time can answer. By 2034, we’ll revisit this topic, hoping for better news.