Cracks in Coalitions: Examining Kenya’s Political Turmoil Amid Rising Public Discontent

 

 Is there a problem within the Azimio coalition, a political entity that many Kenyans have placed high hopes in? Recent developments, including the formation of the Kamwene Leadership Forum by Martha Karua and Jeremiah Kioni, suggest underlying tensions. While this has sparked speculation of cracks within Azimio, it is important to assess the context and implications of these moves.

Following the unexpected surge in fuel prices—now over 200 KES per liter—an emergency meeting was convened by Raila Odinga. At the meeting, several leaders suggested that Azimio withdraw from the ongoing national dialogue talks as a protest against the crippling cost of living. However, Raila, supported by Kalonzo Musyoka, overruled the suggestion. While some analysts point to this disagreement as a sign of discord, it may instead be a strategic decision. Raila’s history in politics reveals the importance he places on timing, suggesting that his decision may have been calculated for greater impact in the long run.

The Kamwene Leadership Forum could also be viewed as a strategic move. It may serve as a platform for Mount Kenya leaders who are hesitant to openly join Azimio to align with its broader objectives. This approach mirrors Raila's strategy in 2002 when he successfully brought together leaders from KANU and the opposition to form the National Rainbow Coalition, which ultimately unseated the ruling party.

Meanwhile, the ruling UDA party faces significant challenges. Public discontent with the government has reached a fever pitch, largely due to economic hardships. Rising fuel prices and high taxes have alienated Kenyans, including those in UDA's strongholds such as the Rift Valley. Many are questioning the government’s claim that it cannot control these issues, pointing to historical examples where administrations intervened effectively during economic crises.

The government’s failure to prioritize economic stimulus measures and its insistence on increasing taxes has deepened public frustration. Comparisons to past administrations, such as Mwai Kibaki's efforts to lower interest rates and inject liquidity into the economy, highlight the missed opportunities for addressing the current crisis. The lessons from history, including the collapse of the Roman Empire due to high taxation and corruption, offer a cautionary tale for Kenya’s leaders.

As the crisis persists, Kenyans are left grappling with a struggling economy. The rising cost of living, coupled with reports of the Kenya Revenue Authority resorting to door-to-door tax collection, paints a grim picture. Despite the challenges, history shows that some individuals and businesses can emerge stronger from economic turmoil. The focus now should be on strategies for resilience and recovery as the nation navigates these turbulent times.